[Cracked Sidewalks]Five Charts That Show Why Marquette Should be Better (But Isn't Yet)

[CrackedSidewalksSays]

Five Charts That Show Why Marquette Should be Better (But Isn't Yet)

Source: Five Charts That Show Why Marquette Should be Better (But Isn't Yet)

[Henry Sugar]

First things first, these charts are using the Net Points stat, which is a measurement that looks at the offensive and defensive contributions of each player and then assigns value. For example, if Marquette wins by ten points, the stat attempts to assign credit for the win to the members of the team based on how many min they play and their offensive and defensive ratings. There are some limitations in the stat, mostly on the defensive end, because it's all based on box score stats. If a defensive contribution does not show up on the box score, it won't get captured. However, I have come back to using the stat because it generally passes the red-faced test, and I like the story it helps paint over a season. For example, the best collection of stats was Jae Crowder's senior year.

Chart #1 - Marquette is getting quality contributions this year

This chart shows the comparison of the top fifteen Net Points contributions through this mid-point of the year over the past three seasons. It's not as top heavy as previous years, but there are still plenty of quality contributions on the floor.



Chart #2 - Burton (#BANE) is contributing at the highest level over the past three years

Here's a similar comparison for only freshmen over the past three years. Most freshmen are net-neutral or negative. Even #FreeSteveTaylor was only slightly net-positive at this point. Mayo had a strong start but had already started to fade. Bane is contributing at the highest level seen and showing no signs of slowing down



Chart #3 - There is a quality shooting guard on the roster

Here's a similar comparison of Vander from last year with Todd from this year. Todd is actually contributing at a higher overall trend than Vander did last year. Of course, if you recall all the caveats from the discussion on Net Points, the defensive contributions are not properly represented. However, there is no denying that Mayo can be very good on the court and may be close enough to Blue as a replacement.



Chart #4 - The two worst Net Points contributors are getting the most minutes

Yesterday I tweeted a version of this chart that said it was the entire season in a single chart. This shows the cumulative net points for each player against how many MPG they are receiving. The two worst net point contributors (our starting back court circled in red) are getting the most minutes. The number three and number four best contributors (circled in green) rank fifth and ninth, respectively, in terms of minutes per game.



Chart #5 - If the back court is the issue, there isn't a better PG option on the team



There's no question that the stats aren't particularly kind to Derrick Wilson. Let me first say three things. #1 - I think he's great and I'm rooting for him all the way. #2 - I don't think his defensive contributions show up well in these stats so he is under-rated. #3 - At least he has had six net-positive games. Unfortunately, the other PG option on the team is yet to be net-positive in any contribution, and has had several games where Buzz didn't yet trust him on the court.

Conclusion

There are two ways you can look at this. If you are a pessimist, you can regard Buzz as being obstinate in playing D. Wilson and Thomas over any of the freshmen or Mayo. However, if you're an optimist, you can say that Buzz was teaching some early season lessons and will rely more heavily on Burton and Mayo going forward. You can look at the potential improvement of the offense and see a team that might be better than it shows right now.

[Nevada233]

Okay... If wilson and dawson can even be compared... a 22 year old Jr to a 18 year old freshmen.. we have a problem in the back court...

measuring dawson's stats based on spot minutes hold no weight....

not saying he should be starting but you cant compare someone who plays 30+ Min to someone who plays 5 minutes or less broken up into 1 minute spurts... Theres nobody in the world who can sit watch a game for 20-25 min then get called in for 1:05 min thats gonna change the world... his time will come its just not now..

Wilson should continue to develop and become a better player and marquette will go as far as he takes them..

Go Warriors

[Henry Sugar]

Dawson vs Wilson



I presented the info the way I did because on a strict "net points" view, Dawson shows better. However, that's a red herring. Dawson is worse offensively and defensively. He hasn't shown any indication he really deserves more PT than Wilson. For better or worse (until our season is officially toast), Wilson is our PG.

The SG story is a different matter...

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Any thoughts on usage rate and efficiency for Todd vs Vander?

[tower912]

The numbers clearly dictate Todd should be starting.   The numbers don't factor in intangibles like trust from the coach, team leadership, etc.  IMO, start Jake and Todd.   

[Henry Sugar]

A few comments - Net points already takes usage into account. For example, a player that comes in and hits 1-1 on a three in five minutes of play has an awesome ORtg but a miniscule usage and a tiny net points.

Also, DRtg is based on the team DRtg and then adjusted up or down. Last year's team wasn't great defensively, so take that with a grain of salt.

Last, the stats were never that kind to Vander. Maybe if the stats were nicer to him he'd have made the league.

Vander Vs Mayo. Vander took way more shots but wasn't as efficient.

Blue, Vander   
18.4% Usage   
106.7   ORtg
98.1   DRtg
63.0   Net Points
full season

Mayo, Todd   
10.1% Usage   
114.1   ORtg
92.9   DRtg
27.6   Net Points
partial season

[jesmu84]

Okay... If wilson and dawson can even be compared... a 22 year old Jr to a 18 year old freshmen.. we have a problem in the back court...

measuring dawson's stats based on spot minutes hold no weight....

not saying he should be starting but you cant compare someone who plays 30+ Min to someone who plays 5 minutes or less broken up into 1 minute spurts... Theres nobody in the world who can sit watch a game for 20-25 min then get called in for 1:05 min thats gonna change the world... his time will come its just not now..

Wilson should continue to develop and become a better player and marquette will go as far as he takes them..

Go Warriors

Just curious... (let me preface by saying that I believe Dawson is a better scorer than Derrick), is there any evidence that will convince you Dawson should not be getting more minutes than he is currently getting? Sugar's evidence is about the best and deepest you'll get to comparing the two players.

[UticaBusBarn]

Great stuff! I may be missing something, but is not Todd Mayo the answer at point guard?

[mu03eng]

Great stuff! I may be missing something, but is not Todd Mayo the answer at point guard?

Don't see how, his handle is sloppy and the key to Mayo's resurgence has been his focus on efficiency.  Make him play the 1 and I think he has the same issue he mentioned with Jamil about thinking too much and not just playing.

[NersEllenson]

Just curious... (let me preface by saying that I believe Dawson is a better scorer than Derrick), is there any evidence that will convince you Dawson should not be getting more minutes than he is currently getting? Sugar's evidence is about the best and deepest you'll get to comparing the two players.

I can't speak to the technicalities of Sugar's analysis - but if you have one guy who's cumulative Net Average is -23.8, and the other's is -9.0 - seems a case could be made.

Still see zero downside to giving Dawson 20 minutes a game.

[GGGG]

I can't speak to the technicalities of Sugar's analysis - but if you have one guy who's cumulative Net Average is -23.8, and the other's is -9.0 - seems a case could be made.

Still see zero downside to giving Dawson 20 minutes a game.

That's not the conclusion that Sugar came to however.

[Henry Sugar]

I can't speak to the technicalities of Sugar's analysis - but if you have one guy who's cumulative Net Average is -23.8, and the other's is -9.0 - seems a case could be made.

Still see zero downside to giving Dawson 20 minutes a game.

Again, Dawson has had zero games where his impact on the game has been positive. Zero. Not once has Dawson's contribution made the team better.

His net impact is negative nine in 1/5th the usage. Give Dawson the same usage as DWil and he's twice as bad.

A player's efficiency goes down with increased usage and minutes. If Dawson is already bad offensively, he'll get worse with more minutes.

[jesmu84]

Again, Dawson has had zero games where his impact on the game has been positive. Zero. Not once has Dawson's contribution made the team better.

His net impact is negative nine in 1/5th the usage. Give Dawson the same usage as DWil and he's twice as bad.

A player's efficiency goes down with increased usage and minutes. If Dawson is already bad offensively, he'll get worse with more minutes.

i will assume that being one of this board's experts, you know what you're talking about. however, that has not been the message purported around here.

[bilsu]

Just curious... (let me preface by saying that I believe Dawson is a better scorer than Derrick), is there any evidence that will convince you Dawson should not be getting more minutes than he is currently getting? Sugar's evidence is about the best and deepest you'll get to comparing the two players.

First of all Dawson has 5 DNP's, which I am pretty sure came against the better teams so his numbers are somewhat skewed to the positive, because he played more when it did not matter. Second of all Dawson playing more gives Wilson some rest and a rested player should play better. I believe Wilson should start, but Dawson should play more than he has. Perhaps 28 minutes for Wilson and 12 for Dawson.

[Henry Sugar]

i will assume that being one of this board's experts, you know what you're talking about. however, that has not been the message purported around here.

I am far from an expert. I don't know very much about basketball at all.

However, yes, there is an inverse relationship between usage and efficiency. This is logical. Give a player a lot more shots or opportunities to handle the ball and they will not be as efficient with them.

For example - last year Jamil had an ORtg of 110 on 21% possessions. This year he has an ORtg of 100 on 26% possessions. In other words, last year he had the ball about one out of every five times. This year one out of every four times.

Generally what happens with players is that YoY either their possessions go up and their ORtg stays constant, or their ORtg stays constant and their possessions go up. If you are lucky, you get both.

[jesmu84]

I am far from an expert. I don't know very much about basketball at all.

However, yes, there is an inverse relationship between usage and efficiency. This is logical. Give a player a lot more shots or opportunities to handle the ball and they will not be as efficient with them.

For example - last year Jamil had an ORtg of 110 on 21% possessions. This year he has an ORtg of 100 on 26% possessions. In other words, last year he had the ball about one out of every five times. This year one out of every four times.

Generally what happens with players is that YoY either their possessions go up and their ORtg stays constant, or their ORtg stays constant and their possessions go up. If you are lucky, you get both.

thanks.

[willie warrior]

Dawson vs Wilson



I presented the info the way I did because on a strict "net points" view, Dawson shows better. However, that's a red herring. Dawson is worse offensively and defensively. He hasn't shown any indication he really deserves more PT than Wilson. For better or worse (until our season is officially toast), Wilson is our PG.

The SG story is a different matter...

But wait...but wait...how can Derrick have a negative rating, Buzz said he is a game changer? Oh I get it now, that is the game change, a negative impact.

[Nevada233]

But wait...but wait...how can Derrick have a negative rating, Buzz said he is a game changer? Oh I get it now, that is the game change, a negative impact.

lol... im the furthest from a number cruncher... but +1

[MU82]

I still wonder about the inability of these stats to measure many important intangibles such as leadership, drive, ballhandling ability, tenacity, positional defense, etc. Even if we take these stats as significant, however, they create quite a conundrum for many Scoopers.

Some of the same folks who will want to use these charts to justify Todd being better than Vander will want to dismiss these charts to justify benching Derrick in favor of Dawson.

Fun with numbers!

[NotAnAlum]

But wait...but wait...how can Derrick have a negative rating, Buzz said he is a game changer? Oh I get it now, that is the game change, a negative impact.

Willie - You tell your wife she's beautiful but is she really BEAUTIFUL or are you telling her that to make her feel better.  Or maybe she IS beautiful compared to what you feel are (were) your other "options".

[willie warrior]

Willie - You tell your wife she's beautiful but is she really BEAUTIFUL or are you telling her that to make her feel better.  Or maybe she IS beautiful compared to what you feel are (were) your other "options".

I get it, according to Buzzo, Derrick is beautiful, the most beautiful he has ever coached. No other options.

[Lennys Tap]

I get it, according to Buzzo, Derrick is beautiful, the most beautiful he has ever coached. No other options.

Who's Buzzo?

[Jay Bee]

A player's efficiency goes down with increased usage and minutes. If Dawson is already bad offensively, he'll get worse with more minutes.

That claim loses its relevance when talking about a guy who so rarely plays, IMHO.

18% usage guy playing 22 min a night... & you want 23% & 30 min? Yup, absolutely. But o don't think every player "gets worse" every second they play after the first 5 seconds.

[connie]

Thank you for your effort.  Very interesting and informative.