How many wins to make the NCAA Tourney

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I think the Big East could get 5 teams in easy. Could maybe even get six if one of the bottom 5 goes on a run and wins the BET. The teams are so even in this league that I would not be surprised to see Butler, Seton Hall, St. John's, or DePaul win the BET

[Texas Western]

I think the Big East could get 5 teams in easy. Could maybe even get six if one of the bottom 5 goes on a run and wins the BET. The teams are so even in this league that I would not be surprised to see Butler, Seton Hall, St. John's, or DePaul win the BET

I agree that the teams are even and I really like our league a lot, the  immediate issue with our league is that league as a whole has not performed well against tough non league opponents. So in some respects we have to hope that a few teams actually have great runs, then we beat a few of the better teams at home so we can claim wins against a quality opponent. So it is in our interest for Xavier Creighton and Villanova to be actually strong and Georgetown to have enough wins to get by on their name. My reading of the  math is that at most we can have 4 teams with strong records and then we or someone else has to sneak in by being the 5th team that looks the best on paper. So  to get 5 teams in , my view is that both Marquette and Georgetown have to both do well and of course we want to be perceived as slightly better. 

If Butler won the BET that would be a plus for the perceived strength of the league. If Seton Hall, St. Johns or DePaul won, I think basketball insiders would look at it as a positive but the general media types looking for a story would present it as if the league has somehow gone down hill. If we were 2-3 years out t might be different.

[bilsu]

Xavier, Creighton & Villanova are going to go through this league like a hot knife through butter. There will only be three bids, except if someone else wins conference tournament.

[NavinRJohnson]

Xavier, Creighton & Villanova are going to go through this league like a hot knife through butter. There will only be three bids, except if someone else wins conference tournament.

I agree on Creighton (though it could be because I'm sitting here watching them tear Butler limb from limb), but I am not entirely convinced on Villanova, and particularly Xavier. They need to go do something, anything away from home before I'll feel like they are a cinch to finish in the top 3.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Xavier, Creighton & Villanova are going to go through this league like a hot knife through butter. There will only be three bids, except if someone else wins conference tournament.

I'm going on record as saying that our league is definitely getting four bids. Three is simply not happening

[Coleman]

I'm going on record as saying that our league is definitely getting four bids. Three is simply not happening

+1

Four it shall be. Unless a fifth wins the BET. Then we could get 5.

But we will get four at larges. MU is fighting for the fourth spot.

[GooooMarquette]

Agree the BE will likely get 4, but also I agree with the point that Xavier hasn't yet proven to me that they're clearly in that bunch with Nova and Creighton.

They played only one NC game against a top 25 team (#23 Iowa) and lost, and their other NC losses (Tennessee, USC) aren't too bad, but aren't great either.  In conference, two of their three wins are over SJU and Butler (collectively 0-9in the BE), and their game with us could have gone either way.  In fact, if that game had been at the BC, we might be at 3-1, and X at 2-2. 

They might separate from us within the next few games, but I haven't seen them do it yet.

[Lennys Tap]

+1

Four it shall be. Unless a fifth wins the BET. Then we could get 5.

But we will get four at larges. MU is fighting for the fourth spot.

Villanova and Creighton are in. Two from Xavier, Georgetown, MU and maybe Providence will make it.

[bilsu]

Villanova and Creighton are in. Two from Xavier, Georgetown, MU and maybe Providence will make it.

I think Villanova & Creighton are potential elite 8 teams.
Xavier is a potential sweet 16

[The Equalizer]

I'm going on record as saying that our league is definitely getting four bids. Three is simply not happening

I think it depends on the record of the 4th place team against the top 3.

If the record against the top 3 is 0-6, and there is no compelling non-conference victory, I'm not sure that the 4th place team will receive a bid.   An that could very well be our end-of-year situation.

Right now, I think its fair so say that DePaul, Providence, Seton Hall, St. Johns and Butler are not on a path toward the tourney.  They could turn it around, but chances are they won't.  Lets say they give us 10 conference wins.  

Now say we beat Xavier and finish ahead of them in the standings for 4th place, but are swept by Villanova, Creighton and Georgtown.

11-7 overall record.  4th place in conference. But 0-6 against other tournament teams in conference.  Only one conference win of any meaning.  And no truly compelling non-conference wins. Is that enough to get us in? I don't know, but I don't think its a comfortable position.

[CTWarrior]

11-7 overall record.  4th place in conference. But 0-6 against other tournament teams in conference.  Only one conference win of any meaning.  And no truly compelling non-conference wins. Is that enough to get us in? I don't know, but I don't think its a comfortable position.

I can't see us getting in with that profile.  That is about the worst possible 4th place team, though.

[Eye]

I'd summarize it this way

14-4 or better - Lock.
13-5 - Probable. Lock with win in 1st BET game.
12-6 - Questionable. Lock if make BET title game. 1-1 lean in and in the play-in game 'cause they've gotta fill the field. Doubtful if lose BET opener.
11-7 - Doubtful. Lose BET title game lean in and in the play-in game 'cause they gotta fill the field. 1-1 likely not enough.
10-8 or worse - Out unless win BET.

The questionable stuff gets determined by how many good mid-majors win their leagues/that type of thing.

[Coleman]

I'd summarize it this way

14-4 or better - Lock.
13-5 - Probable. Lock with win in 1st BET game.
12-6 - Questionable. Lock if make BET title game. 1-1 lean in and in the play-in game 'cause they've gotta fill the field. Doubtful if lose BET opener.
11-7 - Doubtful. Lose BET title game lean in and in the play-in game 'cause they gotta fill the field. 1-1 likely not enough.
10-8 or worse - Out unless win BET.

The questionable stuff gets determined by how many good mid-majors win their leagues/that type of thing.

Can't argue with this

[Texas Western]

Revised outlook. Need to win all 7 remaining home games. Need to go 4-3 on remaining road, required wins at St.Johns, DePaul, Butler, Seton Hall. Road Losses must be by 5 or less. that gives us 13-5 conference, then need to win 2 games in BET. If we do that we would be 23-11 with 5 quality wins and no bad losses. Very little room for error point because we have no quality wins(unless you count George Washington ) Would get us something like a 12-13 seed.   In order to make this happen we are going to need mid teens scoring from both Todd and Davante from here on out, and no more disappearances from Jamil, he has to be a positive factor in every game. If we get those three guys on track the rest will follow to the best of their form.

[MarquetteDano]

Revised outlook. Need to win all 7 remaining home games. Need to go 4-3 on remaining road, required wins at St.Johns, DePaul, Butler, Seton Hall. Road Losses must be by 5 or less. that gives us 13-5 conference, then need to win 2 games in BET. If we do that we would be 23-11 with 5 quality wins and no bad losses. Very little room for error point because we have no quality wins(unless you count George Washington ) Would get us something like a 12-13 seed.

If we go 13-5 in conference and win 2 games in the BET we will NOT be a 12-13 seed.  You are way off on that.  We would probably end up 3rd in the BE standings with a trip to the BET final.  That would be an 8 seed minimum.

[bilsu]

I originally voted 20, but I think it is 21. We can win 20 by still losing all are games against Creighton, Villanova and Xavier. Assuming we win against everyone else we finish the regular season 20-11 and still will not have beaten a good team. Georgetown without Smith and the other injured player is not a good team.

[NavinRJohnson]

The answer of course is that it is impossible to predict. Because its all relative, it depends entirley on whom the wins come agains, and what the rest of the country does at the same time.

Would it be better to beat Villanova and lose to Butler, or vice versa (obviously better to beat both)? No way to know, because there is no way to know what those teams are going to do the rest of the way.

Lets not lose sight of the fact that these teams have played only 20-25% of the conference schedule and just over 50% of their overall schedules.

[Texas Western]

If we go 13-5 in conference and win 2 games in the BET we will NOT be a 12-13 seed.  You are way off on that.  We would probably end up 3rd in the BE standings with a trip to the BET final.  That would be an 8 seed minimum.

The way I am looking at the seedings is they are roughly the teams overall ranking divided by 4. So I figured if we got to the 23-11 the Way I described , we would be an approximately top 50 team. Divide that by 4 and you get something like 12 or 13. An 8 seed would be a top 32 team which I think would be a stretch. We were an 11 a couple years ago with a similar record. I think the Buzz era has to go on for a while longer before we start getting the benefit of the doubt the way Izzo and Bo get

[bilsu]

The way I am looking at the seedings is they are roughly the teams overall ranking divided by 4. So I figured if we got to the 23-11 the Way I described , we would be an approximately top 50 team. Divide that by 4 and you get something like 12 or 13. An 8 seed would be a top 32 team which I think would be a stretch. We were an 11 a couple years ago with a similar record. I think the Buzz era has to go on for a while longer before we start getting the benefit of the doubt the way Izzo and Bo get

A rank of 50 probably leaves you out of the tournament. MU finishes 23-11 and it will be ranked in the 30-35 range, which divided by 4 is an 8-9 seed.

[Texas Western]

A rank of 50 probably leaves you out of the tournament. MU finishes 23-11 and it will be ranked in the 30-35 range, which divided by 4 is an 8-9 seed.

If Creighton Villanova and Xavier keep doing well that is possible

[NersEllenson]

If MU can finish 12-6 in Big East and win a game in conference tourney - it will make NCAA.  MU will get the benefit of the doubt from tourney committee given the "over-performance" MU has had the last 3 tourneys.  Plus, the MU name/brand has a little cache that you want in the tourney over say a team like perhaps LaSalle or another mid-major with similar RPI, that isn't a frequent tourney participant.