Surprising - Vander vs Todd Mayo Jr Year Stats

[NersEllenson]

Todd is basically playing as well/better than Vander did last year - certainly should have softened blow of losing Vander.  Todd needs more minutes.  Remarkably similar production to Vander last year.

Highlights:

Minutes per game - Vander 33.0, Todd 20.8
Points per 40 minutes - Vander 17.9, Todd, 17.5
Offensive Rating - Vander 104.2, Todd 107.3
FG% - Vander 45.4, Todd 44.4
FT % - Vander 75.6, Todd 80.4
FT Rate - Vander 31.5, Todd 51.1
3 PT FG% - Vander 30.3, Todd 33.3
Effective FG% -  Vander 50.3, Todd 50.5%
True Shooting % - Vander 54.1, Todd 57.2
Rebounds per game (not per 40 minutes) - Vander 3.2, Todd 2.4
Assist Percentage - Vander 12.8, Todd 16.7
Steal Percentage - Vander 2.0, Todd 2.6
Turnover Percentage - Vander 18.5, Todd 20.1
+/- Average - Vander, 5.1, Todd 4.9

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?add=todd-mayo&i=1&p1=vander-blue

[Jay Bee]

Todd is basically playing as well/better than Vander did last year - certainly should have softened blow of losing Vander.  Todd needs more minutes.  Remarkably similar production to Vander last year.

PER THIS ARTICLE:  We believe the optimal change would be adding Todd Mayo to the starting group. At 23.4% %Shots (23.9% a year ago), Todd adds another offensive weapon to play with Jamil. Mayo is also by far the best guard/wing at drawing fouls and getting to the line.

Vander would be great to have this season, but the truth is his departure isn't what ails this team most.

MU is flawed, but much of it is fixable. Looking forward to another tourney run if some changes are made soon.

[MUfan12]

Outside of the Creighton game, Todd has been really good as of late. He's also one of those guys that needs time to get in the flow of the game. I'd love to see him start one of these games, and see what happens.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Vander would be great to have this season, but the truth is his departure isn't what ails this team most.

MU is flawed, but much of it is fixable. Looking forward to another tourney run if some changes are made soon.

You make comments like this often, but I don't know that I have ever read what Jay Bee would do. I tend to agree with you, or at least I did, but this team has really lacked a killer instinct. That, and Buzz's persistent lack of flexibility in certain aspects have buried this team in close games.

[MU82]

One of the problems with per-minute stats and efficiency ratings is they can skew results, especially of the lower-minute players.

The eye test tells us that Todd is not as effective this year as Vander was last year.

Having said that, I also wish Buzz would play Todd a little more, especially when Todd is going well. Ride that hot hand!

[forgetful]

One of the problems with per-minute stats and efficiency ratings is they can skew results, especially of the lower-minute players.

The eye test tells us that Todd is not as effective this year as Vander was last year.

Having said that, I also wish Buzz would play Todd a little more, especially when Todd is going well. Ride that hot hand!

The problem with the eye test is that people remember specific things...aka really bad turnovers (Junior last year), or game winning drives (Vander) and that skews there opinion.

Fact of the matter is, this time last year people were calling for Vander's head and saying he should be benched.  They complained that you can't win with a 2G that can't shoot (30% from 3).  By the end of the year those same people were afraid he would go to the NBA (because they remembered the game winners).

Mayo is as effective as Vander when he is in the game.  He is a more complete player (better shooter), but is no where near the raw athlete that Vander was.  The other big difference is that Vander last year had the "it factor"...you knew with the game on the line he would find a way to score.  That comes with confidence and playing time...I think if you give Mayo the playing time he can develop that "it factor".

I would like to see him start instead of Juan and go to a true 4 out 1 in offense with either Derrick, Jake, Mayo, Wilson out (and Otule in) or Dawson, Jake, Mayo, Wilson out (and Otlue in).  The latter lineup is a 3 pt threat at all 4 out positions.

[NersEllenson]

One of the problems with per-minute stats and efficiency ratings is they can skew results, especially of the lower-minute players.

The eye test tells us that Todd is not as effective this year as Vander was last year.

Having said that, I also wish Buzz would play Todd a little more, especially when Todd is going well. Ride that hot hand!

I tend to disagree that a player's efficiency decreases with more minutes - most players, play much better when logging consistent, long runs of minutes.  Really hard to get into a flow when you get four, 5 minute stints, as opposed to 2, 10-minute stints.  I've long been frustrated with how Buzz has used Mayo, as he yanks him in and out a lot - a lot more than he should anyway.  We need to live with some of the downside of Todd, to realize all the upside too.

It is really hard to argue that Vander was so much better than Todd based on looking at all of the stats presented - that is a pretty comprehensive list I gave, and Todd wins in 8 of the 13 categories, and those he doesn't - the margin of difference is razor thin - yet the disparity in minutes per game they both get - is not razor thin at all.  33 minutes to 20 minutes...big difference....and I highly doubt Mayo's efficiency would go down if he got 33 per game.

[Jay Bee]

Let me also say this: Ners misses what I think is key.

The truth is that to this point Todd has been great against lesser teams and bad against tough teams. It's not even close.

But Vander to another specific player isn't the comparison to be made.

The key is this: Vander (and Junior) were guys that were used in the offense. Van - at 24% usage and by far the team's top shot taker (28% %Shots) was somewhat built for that.

Now you put in Jake, Derrick, Juan... and even Chris... and you have four guys who are NOT going to be 20%+ usage guys or shot takers. They aren't built for that.

You have one guy in Jamil... who then has to try to do even more...

And you set yourself up for failure.

It's the player TYPE that is the issue for MU. Too often Buzz is asking guys to do what is far from optimal or even wise for them to do.

Todd getting more minutes is a potential remedy because he IS built for higher usage and shot taking (and drawing fouls, etc.)

[NersEllenson]

Let me also say this: Ners misses what I think is key.

The truth is that to this point Todd has been great against lesser teams and bad against tough teams. It's not even close.

But Vander to another specific player isn't the comparison to be made.

The key is this: Vander (and Junior) were guys that were used in the offense. Van - at 24% usage and by far the team's top shot taker (28% %Shots) was somewhat built for that.

Now you put in Jake, Derrick, Juan... and even Chris... and you have four guys who are NOT going to be 20%+ usage guys or shot takers. They aren't built for that.

You have one guy in Jamil... who then has to try to do even more...

And you set yourself up for failure.

It's the player TYPE that is the issue for MU. Too often Buzz is asking guys to do what is far from optimal or even wise for them to do.

Todd getting more minutes is a potential remedy because he IS built for higher usage and shot taking (and drawing fouls, etc.)

Agree with all you wrote, only thing I would say is Todd has also performed well against some good teams in his career, dating back to Wisconsin his freshman year.  Todd also played well in the NCAA's his freshman year.

Completely agree that Jamil has struggled largely due to having to play so many minutes with such inept offensive players - Derrick, Juan, Chris, and Jake to an extent - yet Jake has also struggled because of the same dynamic.  Put Jake out there with 3 of Mayo, Jamil, Burton, and Gardner - he's a much better player.

I really am surprised Buzz hasn't drawn the same conclusion by now - the data is overwhelming. 

[PGsHeroes32]

Nice stats.

It's mind boggling that Todd doesn't get more minutes.

I have said it all year, the offense simply is better with him on the floor.

Having him on the floor allows jake to get off more shots(other wise he can basically only get open on that little curl). Because teams respect Todd as well.

While Todd at times sits with the ball and doesn't pass he is very good at driving the middle and dumping it off to someone like DG.

Him not getting 28 MPG is truly the one thing I will not understand about this year.

That and the fact people are always harping on him but the same ones to defend derrick lol.

[Texas Western]

Hopefully a game like today builds a foundation for Todd. He has essentially the same talent as Vander but the big difference was Vander came on at the end if the year and became the go to guy. The St Johns game at the end of the regular season was a great example. Everyone in Madison Square Garden knew Vander was getting the ball at he end of he game and he still powered to the basket and made the buzzer beater. Todd can be that guy but Buzz needs to give him the minutes. I would even go so far as to make him the point guard.

[MU82]

Fact of the matter is, this time last year people were calling for Vander's head and saying he should be benched. 

If by "people" you mean "dopes," well, yes.

This time last year (through non-con sked and 4 games of BE sked), Vander was scoring 14 ppg on 46% shooting and both locally and nationally was getting praise for having taken a quantum leap as a player.

[bamamarquettefan]

I agree with Ners on almost everything except it is true that overall ratings drop the more minutes and possessions a player has due to fatigue and defensive attention. That doesn't mean that there are not exceptions and Todd could be one. As far as playing is big games I just have to go back to the Florida game i witnessed where Todd was the only guy who looked like he belonged on the court again those guys. Todd can clearly play at the highest level and I believe that we just absolutely have to start him as much as I love Jake and thought he had another great game yesterday. I just don't see us making the tourney and or winning a game without mayo as a starter.

one last thought is that the new rules are killing us. Anyone who watched Pre-games with the players getting hit by tackling dummies as they took shots knows marquette was prepared for the old way of calling games grinding your way to the basket. Can you imagine if vander had been here to get blocking calls on half of the charges that were called against him last year? He could have truly been unstoppable on the way to the hoop. We just need to get a little of that with mayo, the ability to pull up and hit the jumper but also just take the dribble into the trees and likely get a call.

[Avenue Commons]

Offensive possessions only make up one half of the game of basketball. Vander was a much better defender when at MU. Vander is bigger, stronger and faster as well.

In addition, Vander exhibited better leadership. Look to the NCAA tournament last year. Mayo has acted very immaturely throughout much of his time at MU.

That said, I'd like to see Buzz play Mayo more. Maybe if given the chance to start Mayo could mature into the role? I don't know, though. I trust that Buzz has a good feel for his teams.

[forgetful]

If by "people" you mean "dopes," well, yes.

This time last year (through non-con sked and 4 games of BE sked), Vander was scoring 14 ppg on 46% shooting and both locally and nationally was getting praise for having taken a quantum leap as a player.

I agree on all aspects, doesn't matter how someone will perform, some will find a fault in how you do it.

People here were criticizing Vander for the same reason as people criticizing Mayo.

"We lost at LSU, because Vander didn't show up...1-4 shooting.  

Against good competition he didn't show up (Wisconsin, Vanderbilt, LSU, Georgetown, UW-M) was a combined 6-34)  that's 18% shooting.

He's inconsistent and bad against the good competition"

Mayo is actually a great comparison for Vander.  They are scorers, and sometimes a scorer will just be off.

People remember the bad games and forget the 14 pts and 46% shooting and remember instead the few games where combined he averaged 18%.

In fact Mayo's bad performances....3-15 but still 11 pts and 7 rebounds against Ohio state...looks a lot like Vander last year against Wisconsin....4-14 but still 9 pts 8 rebounds.

Mayo 0-6 2 pts vs. Creighton looks a lot like Vanders 0-7 2 pts against UW-Milwaukee.

Difference was others stepped up so we still beat UW-M and UW last year.

[MU82]

I agree on all aspects, doesn't matter how someone will perform, some will find a fault in how you do it.

People here were criticizing Vander for the same reason as people criticizing Mayo.

"We lost at LSU, because Vander didn't show up...1-4 shooting.  

Against good competition he didn't show up (Wisconsin, Vanderbilt, LSU, Georgetown, UW-M) was a combined 6-34)  that's 18% shooting.

He's inconsistent and bad against the good competition"

Mayo is actually a great comparison for Vander.  They are scorers, and sometimes a scorer will just be off.

People remember the bad games and forget the 14 pts and 46% shooting and remember instead the few games where combined he averaged 18%.

In fact Mayo's bad performances....3-15 but still 11 pts and 7 rebounds against Ohio state...looks a lot like Vander last year against Wisconsin....4-14 but still 9 pts 8 rebounds.

Mayo 0-6 2 pts vs. Creighton looks a lot like Vanders 0-7 2 pts against UW-Milwaukee.

Difference was others stepped up so we still beat UW-M and UW last year.

From very early last season, I remember mostly having good thoughts about Vander, who obviously had worked very, very hard to become a fine college player. Just to make sure my memory wasn't fuzzy, I looked up his scoring stats.

From Game 3 on: 21, 18, 6, 20, 17, 14, 6, 17, 16, 13, 12, 22, 11, 19, 13, 30, 17, etc, etc, etc.

In other words, he had very few clunkers and was quite consistently good.

Mayo has not achieved that yet. To be fair, he hasn't been given the chance to achieve that yet, in part because he has sabotaged himself. His performance lately has been very encouraging and Buzz is rewarding him with more playing time.

I hope it continues and he goes on to be better and more valuable than Vander was last season.

While he's at it, maybe Mayo can hit the winning shots that give us the regular-season Big East title and keep our NCAA tournament alive!

[WI inferiority Complexes]

NM

[Windyplayer]

 By the end of the year those same people were afraid he would go to the NBA (because they remembered the game winners).

How irrational of us. But yes, point taken.

[avid1010]

It's mind boggling that Todd doesn't get more minutes.

some could say it's mind boggling todd is still on this team.  you have a lot to lose when you rely heavily on someone who has proven time and time again not to be reliable.  i hope todd hangs in there, and continues to grow, but there were plenty of people thinking he should pack up not too long ago. 

this team doesn't miss vander, it misses a point guard.  last year MU went as junior went...he didn't have to play great, but he had to be decent.  if derrick or dawson can be decent it really helps our chances.