For you RPI fans

[ChicosBailBonds]

There is no reason to think we cant go undefeated at home.

I think we can, I also think we can win many of those games that we are slight underdogs.  It's the games like at DePaul where we are heavily favored that I worry about.  The game at Seton Hall is no give me, and we are supposed to win that one also.

Remember, where you win matters with RPI so losing to Georgetown at home (a game the RPI today thinks we should win), hurts us worse than some others.

All in all, there are opportunities to be had out there.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Unfortunately, as of yesterday, the Butler game switched and we were supposed to win that game today.  It was still basically a 50-50 game with a slight edge to MU.  Considering it went to OT, seems like the prediction was pretty darn good.

Game against G'Town is very big for both teams with G'Town's loss today at home.  Maybe they lose two games in a row at home, but that would be really rare.

[77ncaachamps]

Win the BET based on how this team is playing.

That's all that's left for this team to get into the NCAAs because there's a very low chance they'll go 10-3 to finish the regular season.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Expected RPI now 93

16-15 final record

A bunch of games, however, with less than 55% predictor so that can change those results very quickly.  For example, it still has us losing at St. John's which surprises me.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Expected RPI now 82.2....jumped about 10 spots.


Expected record of 17-14


Of course, now that Buzz may have finally gotten over his stubbornness and is using a different lineup (which the RPI doesn't know), things could get a lot better in a hurry if the youngsters perform.

[copious1218]

Expected RPI now 82.2....jumped about 10 spots.


Expected record of 17-14


Of course, now that Buzz may have finally gotten over his stubbornness and is using a different lineup (which the RPI doesn't know), things could get a lot better in a hurry if the youngsters perform.

Yep, I happen to think we'll be better than 6-6 the rest of the way. 

[Lennys Tap]

Expected RPI now 82.2....jumped about 10 spots.


Expected record of 17-14


Of course, now that Buzz may have finally gotten over his stubbornness and is using a different lineup (which the RPI doesn't know), things could get a lot better in a hurry if the youngsters perform.

Yeah, not playing an injured Steve Taylor Jr was soooo stubborn. Thank God Buzz got over that!

[Coleman]

So whats a baseline tournament worthy RPI?

I know its not the only factor, but what is a good enough that it wouldn't be held against us? 55? 50?

[willie warrior]

Yep, I happen to think we'll be better than 6-6 the rest of the way. 

While we are all glad we won a road game, and hope we will win some more, 6-6 is definitely possible, unless we believe that Dawson will continue to develop and Taylor will play that way each game. The chance of that trending that way are likely 50-50 at best.

By the way, assuming Dawson ends up 15-20 minutes a game, where does everybody thing that puts Du. Wilson next year?

[ChicosBailBonds]

Yep, I happen to think we'll be better than 6-6 the rest of the way. 

I agree.

If interested, here are the records and the expected RPIs...this is a general number since it really matters WHO you beat to get to these marks.

For example, if we go 20-11 the RPI is expected to be 50.5.  Certainly not NCAA automatic by any stretch, but at least closer to the conversation

21-10 gets you to 41.5 RPI, likely that's in about 95% of the time

22-9 gets you to a 33.5 RPI, that's in about 98.5% of the time

23-8 gets you to 26.7 RPI that's in about 99.8% of the time.


Lots of work to do, but last night was big.  Ohio State getting going wouldn't hurt right now either (though their overall impact to us is still relatively minor)

[MuMark]

I think the lowest RPI team to get an at large bid might have been Seton Hall......low 70s IIRC?

So that might be a starting point as far as a goal....

[chapman]

Well, last night increased the chances of winning 21+ games from .43% to 1.62%. 

[EnderWiggen]

Well, last night increased the chances of winning 21+ games from .43% to 1.62%. 

[Jay Bee]

Lots of work to do, but last night was big.  Ohio State getting going wouldn't hurt right now either (though their overall impact to us is still relatively minor)

"Impact is still relatively minor" is you speaking from an RPI perspective, which may carry little relevance - and we may never know.

However, it's likely far more relevant come March. Our first home loss since 2011... if it's our only, or one of just two or three, home losses this year.. looks a lot better losing to a team regarded as excellent or very good than a team that bombs.

I think Ohio State will be fine... but, the point is there is a lot more to life (and tourney selection) than the RPI.

[ChicosBailBonds]

I think the lowest RPI team to get an at large bid might have been Seton Hall......low 70s IIRC?

So that might be a starting point as far as a goal....

Lowest RPIs to make NCAA tournament as an at-large

74  New Mexico (1999)
67  USC (2011)
64  Marquette (2011)
63  NC State (2005)
63  Stanford (2007)



Highest RPIs to miss the NCAA tournament as an at-large

21  Missouri State (2006)
29  Texas Tech (1997)
30  Hofstra (2006)
30  Air Force (2007)
32  Dayton (2008)
33  Oklahoma (1994)
40  Cincinnati (2006)

[ChicosBailBonds]

I think Ohio State will be fine... but, the point is there is a lot more to life (and tourney selection) than the RPI.

Correct.  No one has said differently.  In fact, depending on the chairperson it may mean less or more to those in the room.  I'm friends with on individual who was the chair.  I'm acquaintances with another that recently served in the same role.  For some committees is it more important than to others, but certainly not the end all be all.

[T.V. Diener 34]

I lol'd

[Coleman]

Lowest RPIs to make NCAA tournament as an at-large

74  New Mexico (1999)
67  USC (2011)
64  Marquette (2011)
63  NC State (2005)
63  Stanford (2007)



Highest RPIs to miss the NCAA tournament as an at-large

21  Missouri State (2006)
29  Texas Tech (1997)
30  Hofstra (2006)
30  Air Force (2007)
32  Dayton (2008)
33  Oklahoma (1994)
40  Cincinnati (2006)

Thanks. This is helpful. I didn't realize we were third on that list...haha. Was 2011 the first year of the field of 68?

I think if we can hit low 50s we'll have a decent chance. No guarantees, obviously, but given everything that's happened this season its the range we need to be shooting for.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Thanks. This is helpful. I didn't realize we were third on that list...haha. Was 2011 the first year of the field of 68?

I think if we can hit low 50s we'll have a decent chance. No guarantees, obviously, but given everything that's happened this season its the range we need to be shooting for.

Correct, 2011 was the first year of 68 teams.  I can't remember if it was Lunardi or CBS, but likely one of the last four teams in that year.  The Big East tournament really helped us....plus the conference was so deep.

[Benny B]

Thanks. This is helpful. I didn't realize we were third on that list...haha. Was 2011 the first year of the field of 68?

I think if we can hit low 50s we'll have a decent chance. No guarantees, obviously, but given everything that's happened this season its the range we need to be shooting for.

Keep in mind, that 2011 team had signature wins over @UCONN (last team to beat UCONN that year), Notre Dame & Syracuse at home, and WVU in the BET... not to mention 10 of their 14 losses were to ranked opponents.  That was also the year that MU was specifically mentioned by the committee as being rewarded for their SOS even though they were 9-9 in the Big East, which sent 11 teams to the tournament.

Without a signature win so far this year (G-Town was a good win, but not signature), MU absolutely needs to win 2 of the last three games against Creighton and Nova... otherwise, RPI isn't going to mean squat.  Fortunately, the road schedule from here on out is manageable, but I don't think they can afford any more losses at home except perhaps a Creighton or Nova loss.

So all of that said... I don't think an RPI in the low 50s gets MU into the tourney short of beating Nova, X, and Creighton at least once, winning two games in the BET (at least one against either Nova or Creighton), winning out at home, winning against SJU & DePaul on the road, and taking one from either Prov or SHU on the road.  That means going at least 12-3 the rest of the way, which probably gets you into the low to mid-50s RPI-wise.

If by some chance MU can get into the 40s, they would be in pretty decent shape regardless of their resume considering the weight the committee has given to RPI the past two years; however, to do that they likely have to go 13-2 or better any way.

Obviously, the games are more meaningful than RPI at this point... win the games they need to win, and the RPI will follow.

[Coleman]

Keep in mind, that 2011 team had signature wins over @UCONN (last team to beat UCONN that year), Notre Dame & Syracuse at home, and WVU in the BET... not to mention 10 of their 14 losses were to ranked opponents.  That was also the year that MU was specifically mentioned by the committee as being rewarded for their SOS even though they were 9-9 in the Big East, which sent 11 teams to the tournament.

Without a signature win so far this year (G-Town was a good win, but not signature), MU absolutely needs to win 2 of the last three games against Creighton and Nova... otherwise, RPI isn't going to mean squat.  Fortunately, the road schedule from here on out is manageable, but I don't think they can afford any more losses at home except perhaps a Creighton or Nova loss.

So all of that said... I don't think an RPI in the low 50s gets MU into the tourney short of beating Nova, X, and Creighton at least once, winning two games in the BET (at least one against either Nova or Creighton), winning out at home, winning against SJU & DePaul on the road, and taking one from either Prov or SHU on the road.  That means going at least 12-3 the rest of the way, which probably gets you into the low to mid-50s RPI-wise.

If by some chance MU can get into the 40s, they would be in pretty decent shape regardless of their resume considering the weight the committee has given to RPI the past two years; however, to do that they likely have to go 13-2 or better any way.

Obviously, the games are more meaningful than RPI at this point... win the games they need to win, and the RPI will follow.

I don't disagree with you.

I'm not sure we could get to a low 50s RPI without beating either Nova, X or Creighton at least once. Its kind of assumed. Failing to get a win against them would mean 4 more losses (at the very least)...which already has us at 11-7, assuming we win every single other game.

So yeah, we'd have to get a signature win to get there.  

RPI is linked to not only how many games you win, but WHO you beat.

[NersEllenson]

Yeah, not playing an injured Steve Taylor Jr was soooo stubborn. Thank God Buzz got over that!

Come on Lenny, Steve, like John Dawson hadn't earned the minutes in practice.  Steve saw action in a few games since his 16 point Grambling performance - I highly doubt Buzz would have put Taylor on the floor if he was legitimately jeopardizing his career/leg through playing.

At the end of the day, Steve not playing, and Dawson not getting any real PT, were both coaching decisions.  Perhaps the G'Town game gave Buzz enough data to run with Steve and John for more PT.

[Benny B]

I don't disagree with you.

I'm not sure we could get to a low 50s RPI without beating either Nova, X or Creighton at least once. Its kind of assumed. Failing to get a win against them would mean 4 more losses (at the very least)...which already has us at 11-7, assuming we win every single other game.

So yeah, we'd have to get a signature win to get there.  

I know... it's pretty much a circular argument.  It's possible MU gets into the mid 50s without at least two signature wins, but not likely; so we're on the same page.

[Lennys Tap]

Correct, 2011 was the first year of 68 teams.  I can't remember if it was Lunardi or CBS, but likely one of the last four teams in that year.  The Big East tournament really helped us....plus the conference was so deep.

We were not one of the last four at large teams in that year. They were UAB, Clemson, VCU and USC who were all in the "play in" games. In addition, Richmond, Utah St and Memphis were 12 seeds so likely in after us. Missouri and Gonzaga were on our line (11). At worst, the 5th last team in, at best the 10th, most likely the 8th.

[Lennys Tap]

Come on Lenny, Steve, like John Dawson hadn't earned the minutes in practice.  Steve saw action in a few games since his 16 point Grambling performance - I highly doubt Buzz would have put Taylor on the floor if he was legitimately jeopardizing his career/leg through playing.

At the end of the day, Steve not playing, and Dawson not getting any real PT, were both coaching decisions.  Perhaps the G'Town game gave Buzz enough data to run with Steve and John for more PT.

There's a huge difference between being able to play without risking further injury and being 100 (or even 90 or 80) per cent. I guess you missed the post from the guy who asked Steve how his knee was going into the Big East season and he said "Terrible".