Thoughts on Wisconsin

[VegasWarrior77]

If you click on an individual team on the Vegas Insider Website (http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/las-vegas/2/) you can see all of that team's individual games YTD.

I find it interesting that on 11/26/13 Wisconsin hosted SLU and was only a 3 point favorite!  Of course the Badgers only beat them by 6.  Aren't we better than SLU?

[keefe]

I predict a MU victory.  Hope I am correct.

I hope you are, too. But I fear your hopes will be dashed.

[breadtree]

A) Saying Blue didn't get a lot of win-shares because he played on a loaded team only makes my original point:  that it's silly to say that making 2 S16s and 1 E8 means that Vander Blue was clearly more valuable than Josh Gasser would have been.

B) Also, throw out Blue's freshman and sophomore years if you want.  He still didn't have a season with a win-share/40 as high as any of Gasser's years.  Also, you say that it's unlikely he'd be the focal point of the offense with all the NBA players on his freshman team, and yet he still managed to take more shots and have a higher usage rate than Gasser did.

C) Obviously I'm discounting the injury.  Clearly you'd rather have Betty White on your team than a kid in street clothes.  

D) Even if you normalize the win-shares for the team wins, Gasser still comes out ahead.  If you take Blue's win-shares/40 and multiply it by 85.1/74.5 you get .1199, still well short of Gasser's .154.  

D) Most of your issues seem to be with defensive win shares.  Guess what?  Blue averaged .048 offensive win-shares / 40 and Gasser averages .092.  

E) Ultimately I think Blue seemed like a great player because he was a high usage player.  I'll give him credit for improving his shooting significantly over the course of his career, but his true shooting and effective field goal percentages didn't rank in the top 500 in D1 last year.  Obviously efficiency goes down as usage goes up, but your eyes trick you into thinking usage is better than efficiency and it doesn't work like that.

F) I will totally grant that win-shares isn't the absolute perfect measure of a college player.  But I think it's pretty telling that the list of NBA win-shares leaders per season is basically a list of the best players in NBA history.  And if that doesn't convince you here is the list of NCAA yearly leaders going backward:  Trey Burke, Anthony Davis, Kemba Walker, Jon Scheyer, Stephen Curry, Kevin Love, Kevin Durant, Paul Millsap, Andrew Bogut, Emeka Okafor, Mike Sweetney, David West, Shane Battier, Marcus Fizer, Wally Szczerbiak, Antawn Jamison.

G) At the end of the day, this is not an answerable question, but I'm just saying there's a lot to suggest that Gasser is a better player than Blue was.  

[keefe]

You're right.  By checking my recent post list you'd see that I am all about the whining.  Selective memory in play today?

At the end of the day these fan-centric message boards are filled with more emotion than reason so there really is neither harm nor foul. In fact, whining is the raison d'être for the internet according to Al Gore.

[brandx]

At the end of the day these fan-centric message boards are filled with more emotion than reason so there really is neither harm nor foul. In fact, whining is the raison d'être for the internet according to Al Gore.

Gore must've gotten tired of hearing you military guys whine on ARPANET so he thought he would open it up to everyone   

[jjfanec]

If you click on an individual team on the Vegas Insider Website (http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/las-vegas/2/) you can see all of that team's individual games YTD.

I find it interesting that on 11/26/13 Wisconsin hosted SLU and was only a 3 point favorite!  Of course the Badgers only beat them by 6.  Aren't we better than SLU?

Wisconsin played SLU on a neutral court in Cancun.  They didn't host them.  SLU is returning 4 players from a team that was a 4 seed last year.  Their only losses are to #8 Wisconsin by 5 to #10 Wichita State.  They don't have any big wins but I would guess their resume is as good or better than Marquette's right now. 

[keefe]

Gore must've gotten tired of hearing you military guys whine on ARPANET so he thought he would open it up to everyone   

We didn't whine on ARPANET; we used it to surf porn. We waited for SIPRNET to whine about Al Gore's carbon footprint!

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

F) I will totally grant that win-shares isn't the absolute perfect measure of a college player.  But I think it's pretty telling that the list of NBA win-shares leaders per season is basically a list of the best players in NBA history.  And if that doesn't convince you here is the list of NCAA yearly leaders going backward:  Trey Burke, Anthony Davis, Kemba Walker, Jon Scheyer, Stephen Curry, Kevin Love, Kevin Durant, Paul Millsap, Andrew Bogut, Emeka Okafor, Mike Sweetney, David West, Shane Battier, Marcus Fizer, Wally Szczerbiak, Antawn Jamison.

I think at the top end, and with a large sample size, "win shares" is a pretty good stat (passes the eye and logic test). The NBA list is really good.

But, when you get into the middle of the pack, and the seasons are only 30 games long (college), it's hard to boil everything down to "win shares". A lot of variables come into play.

[VegasWarrior77]

Wisconsin played SLU on a neutral court in Cancun.  They didn't host them.  SLU is returning 4 players from a team that was a 4 seed last year.  Their only losses are to #8 Wisconsin by 5 to #10 Wichita State.  They don't have any big wins but I would guess their resume is as good or better than Marquette's right now. 

Thanks jj.  Forgot about the preseason tourney.  Not totally tuned in to Bucky!  The Shockers look awfully good again!  Right now it looks like Villanova is playing the best of any NBE teams.

[GGGG]

A) Saying Blue didn't get a lot of win-shares because he played on a loaded team only makes my original point:  that it's silly to say that making 2 S16s and 1 E8 means that Vander Blue was clearly more valuable than Josh Gasser would have been.

B) Also, throw out Blue's freshman and sophomore years if you want.  He still didn't have a season with a win-share/40 as high as any of Gasser's years.  Also, you say that it's unlikely he'd be the focal point of the offense with all the NBA players on his freshman team, and yet he still managed to take more shots and have a higher usage rate than Gasser did.

C) Obviously I'm discounting the injury.  Clearly you'd rather have Betty White on your team than a kid in street clothes.  

D) Even if you normalize the win-shares for the team wins, Gasser still comes out ahead.  If you take Blue's win-shares/40 and multiply it by 85.1/74.5 you get .1199, still well short of Gasser's .154.  

D) Most of your issues seem to be with defensive win shares.  Guess what?  Blue averaged .048 offensive win-shares / 40 and Gasser averages .092.  

E) Ultimately I think Blue seemed like a great player because he was a high usage player.  I'll give him credit for improving his shooting significantly over the course of his career, but his true shooting and effective field goal percentages didn't rank in the top 500 in D1 last year.  Obviously efficiency goes down as usage goes up, but your eyes trick you into thinking usage is better than efficiency and it doesn't work like that.

F) I will totally grant that win-shares isn't the absolute perfect measure of a college player.  But I think it's pretty telling that the list of NBA win-shares leaders per season is basically a list of the best players in NBA history.  And if that doesn't convince you here is the list of NCAA yearly leaders going backward:  Trey Burke, Anthony Davis, Kemba Walker, Jon Scheyer, Stephen Curry, Kevin Love, Kevin Durant, Paul Millsap, Andrew Bogut, Emeka Okafor, Mike Sweetney, David West, Shane Battier, Marcus Fizer, Wally Szczerbiak, Antawn Jamison.

G) At the end of the day, this is not an answerable question, but I'm just saying there's a lot to suggest that Gasser is a better player than Blue was.  

After your argument using win shares was destroyed, points A, B and D are pretty irrelevant.  Point C is a given.

Point E.  I agree to a point.  He was clearly a high volume player and oftentimes wasn't very efficient.  But I would rather have a high-impact player and sacrifice some efficiency than vice versa.

Point F. Of course.  Those were players that were used a lot on winning teams.  But that still doesn't address the problems with comparing two players using those stats as was spelled out for you.

Point G.  There isn't anyone outside of a bitter Badger fan who believes Gasser to be a better player than Blue.  Frankly, if that is the conclusion you get through your study, then I think the data you use for your study is extremely flawed.

[MU82]

G) At the end of the day, this is not an answerable question, but I'm just saying there's a lot to suggest that Gasser is a better player than Blue was.  

At the end of the day, Blue hit end-of-the-day shots to give Marquette the Big East title and, just two weeks later, to keep alive Marquette's Elite Eight run.

At the end of the day, how many season-saving, end-of-the-day shots did Gasser -- excuse me, The Great Josh Gasser -- hit?

I know he made that wing-and-a-prayer, luckier-than-hell bank shot to beat Michigan in a February game a few years ago, but otherwise? Was he carrying Wisconsin into the Elite Eight?

NCAA Tournament game-winning shots must be at least as viable a "stat" as win-shares are.

Now get the hell back to the UW board, Troll Boy, and wax poetic about the wonders of Brian Butch.

[ChicosBailBonds]

At the end of the day, Blue hit end-of-the-day shots to give Marquette the Big East title and, just two weeks later, to keep alive Marquette's Elite Eight run.

At the end of the day, how many season-saving, end-of-the-day shots did Gasser -- excuse me, The Great Josh Gasser -- hit?

I know he made that wing-and-a-prayer, luckier-than-hell bank shot to beat Michigan in a February game a few years ago, but otherwise? Was he carrying Wisconsin into the Elite Eight?

NCAA Tournament game-winning shots must be at least as viable a "stat" as win-shares are.

Now get the hell back to the UW board, Troll Boy, and wax poetic about the wonders of Brian Butch.

Luck....what luck?  There's no luck in basketball

[breadtree]

At the end of the day, Blue hit end-of-the-day shots to give Marquette the Big East title and, just two weeks later, to keep alive Marquette's Elite Eight run.

At the end of the day, how many season-saving, end-of-the-day shots did Gasser -- excuse me, The Great Josh Gasser -- hit?

I know he made that wing-and-a-prayer, luckier-than-hell bank shot to beat Michigan in a February game a few years ago, but otherwise? Was he carrying Wisconsin into the Elite Eight?

NCAA Tournament game-winning shots must be at least as viable a "stat" as win-shares are.

Now get the hell back to the UW board, Troll Boy, and wax poetic about the wonders of Brian Butch.

Robert Horry: better than Michael Jordan.

BTW, the definition of a troll is someone who posts purposefully inflammatory things simply to get a response.  I'm not a troll, all I've done are post publicly available stats. I'm someone who dared to disturb the echo chamber.

As for the guy who said my points were irrelevant because a previous poster 'destroyed' win-shares, I'd point out that the arguments used to 'destroy' mine were directly refuted in my subsequent post.  You can't just wish them away.

[GGGG]

Robert Horry: better than Michael Jordan.

BTW, the definition of a troll is someone who posts purposefully inflammatory things simply to get a response.  I'm not a troll, all I've done are post publicly available stats. I'm someone who dared to disturb the echo chamber.

As for the guy who said my points were irrelevant because a previous poster 'destroyed' win-shares, I'd point out that the arguments used to 'destroy' mine were directly refuted in my subsequent post.  You can't just wish them away.

breadtree:  win shares prove this
forgetful:   win shares is a poor way to prove that for this reason
breadtree:  it isn't poor because win shares say this.

See the problem with your logic?

[NersEllenson]

On to more important matters - What's a Breadtree? 

Is it a Josh Gasser fan club of some sort?

[keefe]

On to more important matters - What's a Breadtree? 

The breadfruit tree kept the Jack Tars of the RN scurvy-free for generations. Without Breadfruit Trees there is no Charles Laughton cast adrift by a fed up Clark Gable.

[forgetful]

Robert Horry: better than Michael Jordan.

BTW, the definition of a troll is someone who posts purposefully inflammatory things simply to get a response.  I'm not a troll, all I've done are post publicly available stats. I'm someone who dared to disturb the echo chamber.

As for the guy who said my points were irrelevant because a previous poster 'destroyed' win-shares, I'd point out that the arguments used to 'destroy' mine were directly refuted in my subsequent post.  You can't just wish them away.

Since a rational argument failed to indicate to you the problems with using win-shares to make the point you are trying to do (comparing ability of players from different teams).  I thought using your lists (that you seem to really love) may help.  If you look at the top 100 players according to win shares (for a single season) since 1998.

http://www.kansascity.com/2013/09/02/4448458/the-truths-behind-the-myth-of.html

You will observe several important names missing:  

Luke Harongody
Evan Turner (Player of the yar)
TJ Ford (Naismith Player of the year)
John Wall (Player of the year runner up)
Adam Morrison
Dwyane Wade
Jameer Nelson (Player of the year)
Carmelo Anthony
Jason Williams (Player of the year)

That means 5 player of the year winners since 2000 don't make the top 100 list.  In addition some of the best players period of the past 15 years (Wade and Anthony) aren't even in the top 100.  Clearly the metric can fail at undervaluing players.

Instead of the list above...the following players did make the list.

Will Thomas (George Mason)
Matt Kingsley (Stephen F. Austin)
Jerome Jordan (Tulsa)
Randal Falker (Southern Illinois)
Spencer Nelson (Utah State)
Jody Lumpkin (College of Charleston)
Sitapha Savane (Navy)
Lee Cummard (BYU…ranked 34th best player since 1998)

So the metric can over-value players.  Now its very likely that the players above (that did make the list) are some of the top 100 most important players to their team (value of win-shares), but it doesn't make them better than D. Wade and Carmelo.

The additional problem with win-shares is that it tends to have similar statistical abnormalities as Kenpom which historically overvalues UW (he's admitted this).  Thus, UW players will also be over-rated, hence the Blue v. Gasser argument you are trying to make and the fact that Wilkinson makes the top 100 list since 1998.

[MUSF]

 

Will Thomas (George Mason)
Matt Kingsley (Stephen F. Austin)
Jerome Jordan (Tulsa)
Randal Falker (Southern Illinois)
Spencer Nelson (Utah State)
Jody Lumpkin (College of Charleston)
Sitapha Savane (Navy)
Lee Cummard (BYU…ranked 34th best player since 1998)

Clearly these guys were better players than D.Wade and Melo. Breadtree found a cherry picked stat that says so, and memorialspartan agrees.

[MU82]

Since a rational argument failed to indicate to you the problems with using win-shares to make the point you are trying to do (comparing ability of players from different teams).  I thought using your lists (that you seem to really love) may help.  If you look at the top 100 players according to win shares (for a single season) since 1998.

http://www.kansascity.com/2013/09/02/4448458/the-truths-behind-the-myth-of.html

You will observe several important names missing:  

Luke Harongody
Evan Turner (Player of the yar)
TJ Ford (Naismith Player of the year)
John Wall (Player of the year runner up)
Adam Morrison
Dwyane Wade
Jameer Nelson (Player of the year)
Carmelo Anthony
Jason Williams (Player of the year)

That means 5 player of the year winners since 2000 don't make the top 100 list.  In addition some of the best players period of the past 15 years (Wade and Anthony) aren't even in the top 100.  Clearly the metric can fail at undervaluing players.

Instead of the list above...the following players did make the list.

Will Thomas (George Mason)
Matt Kingsley (Stephen F. Austin)
Jerome Jordan (Tulsa)
Randal Falker (Southern Illinois)
Spencer Nelson (Utah State)
Jody Lumpkin (College of Charleston)
Sitapha Savane (Navy)
Lee Cummard (BYU…ranked 34th best player since 1998)

So the metric can over-value players.  Now its very likely that the players above (that did make the list) are some of the top 100 most important players to their team (value of win-shares), but it doesn't make them better than D. Wade and Carmelo.

The additional problem with win-shares is that it tends to have similar statistical abnormalities as Kenpom which historically overvalues UW (he's admitted this).  Thus, UW players will also be over-rated, hence the Blue v. Gasser argument you are trying to make and the fact that Wilkinson makes the top 100 list since 1998.

Nicely done!

[MUSF]

BTW, the definition of a troll is someone who posts purposefully inflammatory things simply to get a response.  I'm not a troll, all I've done are post publicly available stats. I'm someone who dared to disturb the echo chamber.

That's unfortunate because if you were a troll, you'd be a pretty successful one. If you were really trying to come here and prove that Gasser is better than Blue, then you are getting your A$$ kicked.

[jjfanec]

Thanks jj.  Forgot about the preseason tourney.  Not totally tuned in to Bucky!  The Shockers look awfully good again!  Right now it looks like Villanova is playing the best of any NBE teams.

Glad to help.  I am a Badger fan and don't post on MU boards anymore but I thought it was safe to post this without looking being a troll.

[breadtree]

What no one has done has provide any sort of alternative analysis on how Blue is better than Gasser, except, of course, 2 shots he hit and overall team success. You guys all act like I made up win-shares myself and then you cherry pick examples of where win-shares didn't tell the whole story.  You're right, I wasn't able to find Carmelo Anthony's name in that story you linked about Chicago violence in the KC Star.  

Of course, most of the false positives are all players at small schools, who probably put up really big numbers.  And since both Vander Blue and Josh Gasser played at small schools those are totally relevant. Since people seem so impressed by lists of names, I'll add some more that made the top 100 list:

Elton Brand
Blake Griffin
Hasheem Thabeet
Shelden Williams
Nick Collison
Nick Fazekas
Kenyon Martin
David West (a 2nd time)
LaMarcus Aldridge
Nate Wolters
Carlos Boozer
Jimmer Fredette
Stromile Swift
Shelden Williams (a 2nd time)
Ike Diogu
Joakim Noah
Karl Landry
Jared Sullinger
Cole Aldrich
Norris Cole
Kenneth Faried
DeJuan Blair

I stopped after the top 50.

[ChicosBailBonds]

What no one has done has provide any sort of alternative analysis on how Blue is better than Gasser, except, of course,

Did Bo lift the cap of 4 African American players for this year's team?  Looks like he's all the way up to 6...is that a new record for Bo? Any photoshopping we should be worried about?

[MUSF]

What no one has done has provide any sort of alternative analysis on how Blue is better than Gasser, except, of course, 2 shots he hit and overall team success.

This is completely ridiculous at this point. There is absolutely nobody, that's not connected to UW (fan/player/coach/writer), that would say Gasser is a better basketball player than Vander Blue.

[rocky_warrior]

What no one has done has provide any sort of alternative analysis on how Blue is better than Gasser, except, of course, 2 shots he hit and overall team success.

Well, in their last head-to-head matchup in 2011, Blue was better than Gasser.  Done.
http://wiki.muscoop.com/doku.php/men_s_basketball/uw_12_3_11

                          TOT-FG  3-PT         REBOUNDS
## Player Name            FG-FGA FG-FGA FT-FTA OF DE TOT PF  TP  A TO BLK S MIN
02 Blue, Vander........ g  4-14   1-1    0-1    3  5  8   2   9  1  3  1  0  33
21 Gasser, Josh........ g  1-5    1-2    4-4    1  1  2   4   7  3  2  0  0  37


If you'd like a second data point, in their first matchup, Blue was also better than Gasser.  Double-Done.
http://wiki.muscoop.com/doku.php/men_s_basketball/uw_12_11_10

                          TOT-FG  3-PT         REBOUNDS
## Player Name            FG-FGA FG-FGA FT-FTA OF DE TOT PF  TP  A TO BLK S MIN
21 Gasser, Josh........ g  2-6    0-2    0-0    1  0  1   3   4  2  1  0  1  30
02 Blue, Vander........ g  2-4    0-1    3-4    0  3  3   2   7  1  0  0  1  29


So then lets look again at their cumulative numbers during the '11-12 season.
http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?add=josh-gasser&josh-gasser=2011-2012&p1=vander-blue&vander-blue=2011-2012
Gasser played a lot more minutes, and scored less. Gasser shot a higher percentage, but didn't get as many rebounds, assists, steals, or blocks.  Blue did turn the ball over more, but fouled less.  Per minute that year, Blue is way more effective, but slightly less efficient.