Thoughts on Wisconsin

[WarriorFan]

Madison by 7.

Gawd that's hard to say.

I'd take the under on 90 points, too.  As much as I agree with an earlier post that the only way to win is for MU to run, lately buzz seems to attack "slow" with "slower". 

[willie warrior]

He said he always communicates his thoughts effectively. I am simply pointing out that if most people extrapolate wrong inferences, as he claims, then he probably isn't communicating effectively. People interpreting the message incorrectly is different than rejecting the message. He clearly thinks that we are doing the former not the latter, as you suggest.

Man the BS flies here. I said "someone" and "You and others" and MUSF infers I said "most people". Thank you for making my point of people inferring what they want.

By the way, Sultan will always respond to my posts because he was called out by me for his rating of Otule, vs. Gardner which he denied and then had to retract and spin a different way. So after saying that, now will come the assault from Sultan, as predicted.

[memorialspartans]

Ellenson will be a big get, and from what I've seen Wisconsin is in the mix and at this point MU isn't very close.  It looks like Wisconsin or Minnesota for Ellenson.  

Stone would certainly be a huge get and Ellenson would be as well.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Man the BS flies here. I said "someone" and "You and others" and MUSF infers I said "most people". Thank you for making my point of people inferring what they want.

Selective reading....alive and well here. (yes, I'm guilty of it too)

[breadtree]

A) Gasser has 9.5 win-shares in his 79 game career for a .154/40 average.  Blue had 7.1 win-shares in his 106 game career for a .105/40 average.  Blue's best win-share/40 min average for a season isn't as good as Gasser's worst.  No one can argue with Marquette's success the past 3 years, but pretending that was a result of Blue's fantastic play and nothing else when comparing him with Gasser is just silly. 

B) Citing Wilson, Noskowiak, Cohen, and Burton as reasons why Marquette is beating Wisconsin for in-state kids is curious considering none of those players had Wisconsin offers. 

[hairy worthen]

A) Gasser has 9.5 win-shares in his 79 game career for a .154/40 average.  Blue had 7.1 win-shares in his 106 game career for a .105/40 average.  Blue's best win-share/40 min average for a season isn't as good as Gasser's worst.  No one can argue with Marquette's success the past 3 years, but pretending that was a result of Blue's fantastic play and nothing else when comparing him with Gasser is just silly. 

B) Citing Wilson, Noskowiak, Cohen, and Burton as reasons why Marquette is beating Wisconsin for in-state kids is curious considering none of those players had Wisconsin offers. 

Is that English?

[MUSF]

Man the BS flies here. I said "someone" and "You and others" and MUSF infers I said "most people". Thank you for making my point of people inferring what they want.

At no point does my post attribute the phrase "most people" to you. Selective inference indeed.

I was stating that most people infer the same things from your posts. Since those inferences aren't what you intended to imply, then the communication problem is more likely on your end.

[ChicosBailBonds]

At no point does my post attribute the phrase "most people" to you. Selective inference indeed.

I was stating that most people infer the same things from your posts. Since those inferences aren't what you intended to imply, then the communication problem is more likely on your end.

Or there is a herd mentality of inference going on, which is also a possibility.  A conservative sees something on MSNBC, and regardless of what is said the inference is biased.  A liberal sees something on Fox, and regardless of what is said the inference is biased.  Its preordained.

[MarquetteDano]

A) Gasser has 9.5 win-shares in his 79 game career for a .154/40 average.  Blue had 7.1 win-shares in his 106 game career for a .105/40 average.  Blue's best win-share/40 min average for a season isn't as good as Gasser's worst.  No one can argue with Marquette's success the past 3 years, but pretending that was a result of Blue's fantastic play and nothing else when comparing him with Gasser is just silly. 

A lot of nice stats.  Just to be clear:  you are saying Marquette would have been better off with Gasser than Vander Blue?  And the statistics bear this out correct?

[MUSF]

Or there is a herd mentality of inference going on, which is also a possibility.  A conservative sees something on MSNBC, and regardless of what is said the inference is biased.  A liberal sees something on Fox, and regardless of what is said the inference is biased.  Its preordained.

Ok, so now you are changing your argument from selective reading back to biased inference. I'll bite...

Of course there's a herd mentality. We're all MU fans. If someone habitually posted negative things about Obama on an MSNBC message board while defending former pres Bush, their self-proclaimed liberal status would be questioned. Does this surprise you?

Look, I actually agree with you more often than not, but how and when you choose to defend Crean / poke Buzz provokes negative reactions. This shouldn't be surprising.

[frozena pizza]

Pretty hard to justify picking us based on what we've seen so far.  That said, I don't think Wisc is as good as their results and I think we are better than ours.  I say UW wins a close one.

[breadtree]

A lot of nice stats.  Just to be clear:  you are saying Marquette would have been better off with Gasser than Vander Blue?  And the statistics bear this out correct?

Yes, and I'll sit back and wait for your analysis on why win-shares is not an accurate measure of a player's value.  Your argument should probably include a refutation of this list, just for the sake of completeness:  http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/ws_yearly.html

[ChicosBailBonds]

Ok, so now you are changing your argument from selective reading back to biased inference. I'll bite...

Of course there's a herd mentality. We're all MU fans. If someone habitually posted negative things about Obama on an MSNBC message board while defending former pres Bush, their self-proclaimed liberal status would be questioned. Does this surprise you?

Look, I actually agree with you more often than not, but how and when you choose to defend Crean / poke Buzz provokes negative reactions. This shouldn't be surprising.

Not changing it at all.  Both are possible and repeated here.  There are people here that simply read things that are not there.  Period.   Secondly, there are others (sometimes the same people) that have a herd mentality and have made up their minds prior to one thing being written of what the "intent" of anything written will be....the actual content be damned.  Both can happen. 

Go through the last 50 threads started where someone posted a score of a team we played or were about to play.  How often was the "passive aggressive troll" unholstered?  It's high comedy.  What's more high comedy is the defense of it....the leaps people make to justify the actions deserve their own forum.

What it says to me is that the herd mentality people are so close minded, so awash in the koolaid that things that go counter to their core candy drops and unicorn prism point of view automatically paints that other person in a specific light, especially if that person is stating factual information. 

Back to the thread, UW by 8.  Hoping MU pulls it off.

[MUSF]

Yes, and I'll sit back and wait for your analysis on why win-shares is not an accurate measure of a player's value.  Your argument should probably include a refutation of this list, just for the sake of completeness:  http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/ws_yearly.html

I won't attempt to argue against the statistical analysis, but I do think your statistics don't fully capture the true value of a player in a college program.

I think Blue blows Gasser away when it comes to national attention and in state recruiting.

[MarquetteDano]

Yes, and I'll sit back and wait for your analysis on why win-shares is not an accurate measure of a player's value.  Your argument should probably include a refutation of this list, just for the sake of completeness:  http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/ws_yearly.html

How, pray tell does Gasser help us get to the Elite Eight last year injured?  Or are you saying we would be better off having Gasser redshirt last year versus Blue hitting winning shots to win the Big East title and against Davidson?

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

A) Gasser has 9.5 win-shares in his 79 game career for a .154/40 average.  Blue had 7.1 win-shares in his 106 game career for a .105/40 average.  Blue's best win-share/40 min average for a season isn't as good as Gasser's worst.  No one can argue with Marquette's success the past 3 years, but pretending that was a result of Blue's fantastic play and nothing else when comparing him with Gasser is just silly. 

B) Citing Wilson, Noskowiak, Cohen, and Burton as reasons why Marquette is beating Wisconsin for in-state kids is curious considering none of those players had Wisconsin offers. 

Is there a website that does college win shares?

It's actually an interesting topic. Blue was okay his first 2 years (depending upon who you ask), and was obviously very good last year.

[Henry Sugar]

Yes, and I'll sit back and wait for your analysis on why win-shares is not an accurate measure of a player's value.  Your argument should probably include a refutation of this list, just for the sake of completeness:  http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/ws_yearly.html

I'll play...

What do win shares for the NBA have to do win shares for college players? Is there a verifiable link between the two groups? How do you account for the increased consistency of NBA players in comparison to NCAA players? In addition, how do Win Shares stack up against Wins Produced (which I regard as a more statistically valid measure)?

The error of prediction on win shares and team performance is greater than 10%. Do you think that counts as statistically valid?

Win shares are built upon defensive rankings. Defensive rankings are known to have errors. They don't account for off-ball defense or when a player misses a shot. Pomeroy doesn't even produce defensive rankings. Given the inconsistency in support for defensive rankings, does this invalidate the metric?

Wisconsin has been widely regarded as a flaw in tempo-free rankings. Specifically, there are some studies that highlight how slower tempo teams are over-rated both offensively and defensively. If Wisconsin is over-rated, would that make Gasser's stats over-rated as well?

How do you account for Gasser's relatively high win shares given his extremely limited usage of 13%? Isn't Gasser just a specialized role player?

====

Mostly I'm just being a jerk, but since you asked the question, there's your critique of Win Shares. FWIW, my honest assessment is that Blue was not a very good player his first two years. However, I do think Gasser is over-rated via the Win Share stat. He's a high-efficiency role player, so he shines. If Gasser had increased usage I doubt his efficiency would maintain.

As for the final point, this is all just bullsh*t arguing among fan bases.

[memorialspartans]

A) Gasser has 9.5 win-shares in his 79 game career for a .154/40 average.  Blue had 7.1 win-shares in his 106 game career for a .105/40 average.  Blue's best win-share/40 min average for a season isn't as good as Gasser's worst.  No one can argue with Marquette's success the past 3 years, but pretending that was a result of Blue's fantastic play and nothing else when comparing him with Gasser is just silly. 

B) Citing Wilson, Noskowiak, Cohen, and Burton as reasons why Marquette is beating Wisconsin for in-state kids is curious considering none of those players had Wisconsin offers. 

Word.

[GGGG]

B) Citing Wilson, Noskowiak, Cohen, and Burton as reasons why Marquette is beating Wisconsin for in-state kids is curious considering none of those players had Wisconsin offers. 

I'll give you Cohen, but Wilson and Burton made it pretty clear they weren't interested in UW.  (Just like Dekker never got an offer from Marquette, but that's not because MU wouldn't have taken him...just that he wasn't interested.)

Noskowiak committed very early.  I am sure UW would have offered him eventually.

[forgetful]

Yes, and I'll sit back and wait for your analysis on why win-shares is not an accurate measure of a player's value.  Your argument should probably include a refutation of this list, just for the sake of completeness:  http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/ws_yearly.html

Here is a simple reason that it is invalid for determining a player's value on a national scale (as opposed to an individual team).  You are trying to compare Blue's win-shares (for Marquette) to Gasser's win-shares (for UW) over a period of three years.

Since the win-shares are not only a reflection of an individuals talent, but also the overall talent of the rest of the team, it is fairly meaningless in terms of how a player (say Blue) would perform on a different team (say UW).  Blue played for an MU team that had DJO/Buycks/Butler all future NBA players playing his positions his freshman year.  It is unlikely that he would be a focal point of the offense and thus accumulate win-shares.  He had DJO (sophomore year) playing the 2.  And split time with Jamil Wilson at the 3.  Again, hard to take time away from those guys...thus fewer win shares.

Gasser despite your claim to win-shares, would not have gotten off the bench for MU either of those years and thus would have accumulated 0 win-shares.  At this point it should be obvious that the utility in using win-shares to compare the abilities of two players is flawed and should not be used in an argument.  

Rather the utility of win-shares is for opposing teams prepping for an opponent.  It is a reflection of the relative importance of an individual for their individual team.  Shutdown their team leader in win-shares and you have a greater chance of beating said team.  It has almost zero utility beyond that aspect.

As for flaws in the system itself, one of the aspects in the calculation is defensive win shares, where Gasser has received a lot of his win-shares (3.9 win shares).  The problem with this calculation is that it ultimately brings into consideration the team performance, but assigns that value to the players.  (marginal defense/marginal points per win).  This can be grossly inaccurate in determining a players contribution on defense.  

For example, Jimmy Butler was a phenomenal defender his senior year, but only received 1.5 win-shares.  Gasser in 2011-2012 received 2.4 DWS.  There is not a person on the planet that would rather have Gasser as a defender than Jimmy Butler.  This alone invalidates DWS as a measure of defensive value.

Let's also look at another aspect of this.  Because of flaws in the calculations (largely on the defensive side), some teams get disproportionately more total win-shares than other teams with comparative performances.  Lets look at UW and MU over the 2010-2013 seasons.  Total record for UW (74-31) for MU (75-31).  Should have similar numbers of win shares...but they don't.

                                                    UW        MU
Total win shares          2010-2011     27.4  vs. 24.6
                                2011-2012     30.2  vs. 27.0
                                2012-2013     27.5  vs. 22.9
Total                                            85.1  vs.  74.5    

UW has 14% more total win-shares over the same period despite nearly identical records.  Clearly the win-share statistics are flawed.  I await your brilliant justification of why these statistics should bear so much meaning.

[Lennys Tap]

Here is a simple reason that it is invalid for determining a player's value on a national scale (as opposed to an individual team).  You are trying to compare Blue's win-shares (for Marquette) to Gasser's win-shares (for UW) over a period of three years.

Since the win-shares are not only a reflection of an individuals talent, but also the overall talent of the rest of the team, it is fairly meaningless in terms of how a player (say Blue) would perform on a different team (say UW).  Blue played for an MU team that had DJO/Buycks/Butler all future NBA players playing his positions his freshman year.  It is unlikely that he would be a focal point of the offense and thus accumulate win-shares.  He had DJO (sophomore year) playing the 2.  And split time with Jamil Wilson at the 3.  Again, hard to take time away from those guys...thus fewer win shares.

Gasser despite your claim to win-shares, would not have gotten off the bench for MU either of those years and thus would have accumulated 0 win-shares.  At this point it should be obvious that the utility in using win-shares to compare the abilities of two players is flawed and should not be used in an argument.  

Rather the utility of win-shares is for opposing teams prepping for an opponent.  It is a reflection of the relative importance of an individual for their individual team.  Shutdown their team leader in win-shares and you have a greater chance of beating said team.  It has almost zero utility beyond that aspect.

As for flaws in the system itself, one of the aspects in the calculation is defensive win shares, where Gasser has received a lot of his win-shares (3.9 win shares).  The problem with this calculation is that it ultimately brings into consideration the team performance, but assigns that value to the players.  (marginal defense/marginal points per win).  This can be grossly inaccurate in determining a players contribution on defense.  

For example, Jimmy Butler was a phenomenal defender his senior year, but only received 1.5 win-shares.  Gasser in 2011-2012 received 2.4 DWS.  There is not a person on the planet that would rather have Gasser as a defender than Jimmy Butler.  This alone invalidates DWS as a measure of defensive value.

Let's also look at another aspect of this.  Because of flaws in the calculations (largely on the defensive side), some teams get disproportionately more total win-shares than other teams with comparative performances.  Lets look at UW and MU over the 2010-2013 seasons.  Total record for UW (74-31) for MU (75-31).  Should have similar numbers of win shares...but they don't.

                                                    UW        MU
Total win shares          2010-2011     27.4  vs. 24.6
                                2011-2012     30.2  vs. 27.0
                                2012-2013     27.5  vs. 22.9
Total                                            85.1  vs.  74.5    

UW has 14% more total win-shares over the same period despite nearly identical records.  Clearly the win-share statistics are flawed.  I await your brilliant justification of why these statistics should bear so much meaning.

breadtree totally schooled by forgetful.

[Hards Alumni]

A) Gasser has 9.5 win-shares in his 79 game career for a .154/40 average.  Blue had 7.1 win-shares in his 106 game career for a .105/40 average.  Blue's best win-share/40 min average for a season isn't as good as Gasser's worst.  No one can argue with Marquette's success the past 3 years, but pretending that was a result of Blue's fantastic play and nothing else when comparing him with Gasser is just silly. 

B) Citing Wilson, Noskowiak, Cohen, and Burton as reasons why Marquette is beating Wisconsin for in-state kids is curious considering none of those players had Wisconsin offers. 

B)  Why offer kids that you have no chance on signing.

[ChicosBailBonds]

B) Citing Wilson, Noskowiak, Cohen, and Burton as reasons why Marquette is beating Wisconsin for in-state kids is curious considering none of those players had Wisconsin offers. 

Wouldn't this work in the inverse as well?  Those kids wanted no part of Wisconsin, so of course you aren't going to offer them.  Just as MU wasn't going to get Butch or a few others because they had eyes only for Wisconsin.

[VegasWarrior77]

Opening Vegas Line is UW -9.5 (team #550).  No total posted yet:

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/las-vegas/2/

[MarquetteDano]

Opening Vegas Line is UW -9.5 (team #550).  No total posted yet:

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/las-vegas/2/

Wow.  That is a LOT of points.  Have to take Marquette and those 9.5 points to spare.