Starting Obsession

[brewcity77]

Why is everyone so obsessed with the starting 5? The starting 5 had us leading the game early. My issue is with the closing 5. They may not have gotten help from the refs, but the guys on the floor at the end were the problem. Not making shots, not finding their shots, turning the ball over, just sloppy play. We had a lead in the closing minutes and gave it up. The problem isn't the first five on the floor, it's the final five.

[madtownwarrior]

Why start a game with a significantly offensively challenged lineup and start slowly every game?   Even the announcers in tonight's game questioned why Mayo and Gardner don't start. 

[warriorstrack]

Agreed, Buzz knows much more than me, but to this more than casual fan, Buzz had stud type players starting with complementary players in years past,  this year it seems as if stud factor is not there, so we should go with top five from the tip, with some variation for match-ups,  just my humble opinion

[brewcity77]

Why start a game with a significantly offensively challenged lineup and start slowly every game?   Even the announcers in tonight's game questioned why Mayo and Gardner don't start. 

Anyone questioning why Gardner doesn't start has never watched him try to win a tip. That's simply ignorant announcers who don't know our team. As for Mayo, I could see him starting but he still gets starting minutes. Is he magically going to put up more points because his 23 minutes start at the opening tip? That's silly.

[PGsHeroes32]

Gardner shouldn't start because of the tip but literally first whistle he should be in.

Todd should get more than 23 minutes.

He did miss one of his last two fts today but was 3/4 and is one of the only good free throw shooters we have. When it gets to bonus time in either half...get todd on the floor.

Otule is just verging on bad these days. He can't handle to ball. He falls overas if hes 5'7 instead of 6'11.

Starters just don't have the punch. Derrick has been driving much more but he gets better opportunities with more scorers out there.

If bad Jamil shows up(4/5 games pretty much) we have nothing at the start.

Btw today all the starters didn't get us a lead. Todd was in for Juan early on...we went from 4-10 points quick. Todd went out...we went on a 9 minute bender of basically missed fts with the occaisional make, todd was back in and we started the late first half run.

We simply score the ball more with more threats.

Jake is shooting 37% from 3...hes shooting 30% overall. I think you can do the math.

All he can do is shoot 3s. To start the game as the only shooter(unless good Jamil drains a early jumper) teams are all over him. Insert Todd, Ox(not sick), JJJ, crap hopefully deonte in the future and all of a sudden we have more weapons who can also shoot...and Jake is freed up.

[willie warrior]

Anyone questioning why Gardner doesn't start has never watched him try to win a tip. That's simply ignorant announcers who don't know our team. As for Mayo, I could see him starting but he still gets starting minutes. Is he magically going to put up more points because his 23 minutes start at the opening tip? That's silly.

Here we go with the lame opening tip refrain again. Please!

[willie warrior]

Anyone questioning why Gardner doesn't start has never watched him try to win a tip. That's simply ignorant announcers who don't know our team. As for Mayo, I could see him starting but he still gets starting minutes. Is he magically going to put up more points because his 23 minutes start at the opening tip? That's silly.

Yeah and that must explain why Jake and Anderson start--because maybe they are good at retrieving the opening tip.

[Boone]

Madtownwarrior has it right. Starting both Juan and Jake, in particular, doesn't make much sense. 

[CTWarrior]

Here we go with the lame opening tip refrain again. Please!

This I agree with.  Because of alternating possession, if you win the opening tip you have a 50/50 chance of getting one more possession than your opponent.  If you figure with Otule we get the opening tip 50% more often than with Jamil Wilson jumping (80% vs 30% or something - which is generous) then you add in we are less likely to score with Otule on the floor than Gardner, the value of having Otule on the floor instead of Gardner for the opening tip is very close to nothing.

I think Buzz starts Otule because he likes Gardner coming off the bench and because of his defense first philosophy.

[We R Final Four]

That one more possession will be negated by a turnover on a near future in bounds play.

[Dr. Blackheart]

This I agree with.  Because of alternating possession, if you win the opening tip you have a 50/50 chance of getting one more possession than your opponent.  If you figure with Otule we get the opening tip 50% more often than with Jamil Wilson jumping (80% vs 30% or something - which is generous) then you add in we are less likely to score with Otule on the floor than Gardner, the value of having Otule on the floor instead of Gardner for the opening tip is very close to nothing.

I think Buzz starts Otule because he likes Gardner coming off the bench and because of his defense first philosophy.

Marquette played in six games last season decided on the final possession.  MU averaged a bit more than one point per possession. Getting a chance for an extra possession by having Big Chris win the opening tip is free money. That extra possession won MU the St. John, Davidson and Butler games at the end of the season, thank you very much.

[GGGG]

Why start a game with a significantly offensively challenged lineup and start slowly every game?   Even the announcers in tonight's game questioned why Mayo and Gardner don't start. 

Does Marquette start slowly every game?

[g0lden3agle]

Marquette played in six games last season decided on the final possession.  MU averaged a bit more than one point per possession. Getting a chance for an extra possession by having Big Chris win the opening tip is free money. That extra possession won MU the St. John, Davidson and Butler games at the end of the season, thank you very much.

Do you happen to have numbers on what % of the time the team that wins the opening tip maintains that extra posession by the end of the game?

[Benny B]

Starting Otule sets a defensive tone... advantageous especially when the other team likes to slash & drive, but will force just about every team to alter their shots and/or positioning on rebounds.  Look at the past couple years... very few teams have beaten MU in the paint.

On offense, starting Otule is like throwing a breaking ball for a strike on the first pitch.  Chris is no slouch on offense, but he plays at a much different tempo... when you can drop one in for strike one, you alter the other guy's timing.  And even when you know the fastball (Davante) is coming, it's hard to catch up to it after a steady dose of lollipops for the past 3-4 minutes.  More times than not, this leads to either easy baskets for DG, fouls for the other team's bigs, or both.

Finally, every officiating crew calls the game differently, so there's always a learning curve early on -- the guys who are the most physical are usually the ones who pick up the ticky-tack fouls early; keeping DG on the bench at the start of the game prevents him from picking up early fouls.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Do you happen to have numbers on what % of the time the team that wins the opening tip maintains that extra posession by the end of the game?

No...when I have some time I will try to find out if KPom or some one had.  But, that depends on jump balls throughout, not on a starting line up. 

I do know this, though, teams who don't win the opening tip get the extra possession 0% of the time. That is why I say "free money".  Otule is going to play minutes any way, why not for the reasons stated here play him then? 

That said, I do agree we need more offensive punch to start the game, some one who can create their own offense.  That is only Deonte, Todd or JJJ right now.

[madtownwarrior]

you tell me, in games against quality teams (quality of ASU and SDSU remains to be seen yet).

OSU -  19 pts in first 20 mins

ASU -  18 pts in first 12 mins

SDSU – 17 pts in in first 15 mins

not exactly an offensive juggernaut....


Scoring averages of the starting lineup (all games)

J Wilson 10.5  
C Otule 7.4
J Thomas 7.3
D Wilson 5.5
J Andersen 4.4

Not exactly scoring machines....  considering Jake ts using come much later in the game as well...

Does Marquette start slowly every game?

[g0lden3agle]

No...when I have some time I will try to find out if KPom or some one had.  But, that depends on jump balls throughout, not on a starting line up. 

I do know this, though, teams who don't win the opening tip get the extra possession 0% of the time. That is why I say "free money".  Otule is going to play minutes any way, why not for the reasons stated here play him then? 

That said, I do agree we need more offensive punch to start the game, some one who can create their own offense.  That is only Deonte, Todd or JJJ right now.

It'd be interesting math.  Say the team that wins the tip keeps that extra possession x% of the time, factor in Otule wins y% of his tips, and then our best end-game line-up gets z ppp.  Compare that to our ppp with Otule in there in the first couple possessions vs. what it's like with Davante in the lineup instead.  Is that fraction of a point you get having Otule in there for the tip really worth it?

[mu03eng]

Madtownwarrior has it right. Starting both Juan and Jake, in particular, doesn't make much sense. 

Juan is our best offensive rebounder specifically and rebounder in general right now.  He also plays the best help side and perimeter defense on the team.

Jake is a different story, but he is still a very solid defender, especially when MU goes zone.

[CTWarrior]

Marquette played in six games last season decided on the final possession.  MU averaged a bit more than one point per possession. Getting a chance for an extra possession by having Big Chris win the opening tip is free money. That extra possession won MU the St. John, Davidson and Butler games at the end of the season, thank you very much.

Wrong.  We lost the opening tip against St John's, we won the opening tip against Davidson but lost the opening possession on a Chris Otule turnover, and Butler had the last possession in the other game.

[Dr. Blackheart]

It'd be interesting math.  Say the team that wins the tip keeps that extra possession x% of the time, factor in Otule wins y% of his tips, and then our best end-game line-up gets z ppp.  Compare that to our ppp with Otule in there in the first couple possessions vs. what it's like with Davante in the lineup instead.  Is that fraction of a point you get having Otule in there for the tip really worth it?

Yes, because MU wouldn't win any (many) tips with Gardner in there jumping, so there would be no/little possibility of an extra possession.  I believe MU has only lost one tip all year--ASU.  So if that plays out over a 30 game season, that is a possibility of 26 extra possessions...or a bit north of 26 extra points in a season. If you play normal odds on jump balls of 50/50...that is 13 extra points.  The difference of Gardner's offensive efficiency of 1.22 last year to Otule's of 1.10...or 0.12 points per possession cannot make that up in less than almost 10 extra possessions for DG.  

Why get in ten possessions what you can get in one?  Especially since the Ox gets gassed anyway and Chris will have to spell him?

Seems small, but enough for three extra wins in a season with so many one possession games. MU won the Big East and two NCAA games on a last possession.  Huge.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Wrong.  We lost the opening tip against St John's, we won the opening tip against Davidson but lost the opening possession on a Chris Otule turnover, and Butler had the last possession in the other game.

Fine, whatever, I am talking probabilities and strategy about an extra possession by having Otule jump center.  You cannot get an extra possession by losing a tip. Plain and simple.  Do you want a 0% chance at that extra possession or a 50% in a last possession game?

Btw, a last possession game is different than a last possession in this example. The potential extra possession can come before the last play.

[g0lden3agle]

Btw, a last possession game is different than a last possession in this example. The potential extra possession can come before the last play.

What examples are there of the extra possession not being the last possession?  If you ended up with more possessions in a game than the opponent, wouldn't that have to mean you have the ball at the end of the game?

EDIT: After I wrote this I'm starting to google about the mathematical definition of a possession in basketball... Are you referring to a possession as in Possessions = FGA - OffReb + TOV + (0.4 x FTA) ? 

[CTWarrior]

Yes, because MU wouldn't win any (many) tips with Gardner in there jumping, so there would be no/little possibility of an extra possession.  I believe MU has only lost one tip all year--ASU.  So if that plays out over a 30 game season, that is a possibility of 26 extra possessions...or a bit north of 26 extra points in a season. If you play normal odds on jump balls of 50/50...that is 13 extra points.  The difference of Gardner's offensive efficiency of 1.22 last year to Otule's of 1.10...or 0.22 points per possession cannot make that up in less than five extra possessions for DG.  

Why get in five possessions what you can get in one?  Especially since the Ox gets gassed anyway and Chris will have to spell him?

Seems small, but enough for three extra wins in a season with so many one possession games. MU won the Big East and two NCAA games on a last possession.  Huge.

First off, I'm quite sure Jamil Wilson would jump, not Gardner.  So, I'll guess 30% more often we'd win the tip, which is generous.  In half the games, there would be no extra possession because there is a 50/50 odds of either team finishing the game with the ball.  So you're already down to an extra possession in 15% (half of 30%) of the games, or 1 extra possession every 6 or 7 games, or roughly 5 possessions a season.  Then you factor in their differences as offensive players with the extra possessions that Otule gets by starting, I'd say the whole thing is worth roughly nothing.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Scoring averages of the starting lineup (all games)

J Wilson 10.5  
C Otule 7.4
J Thomas 7.3
D Wilson 5.5
J Andersen 4.4

Not exactly scoring machines....  considering Jake ts using come much later in the game as well...

Yuk.

I'm actually in favor of starting some defensive guys... but these numbers look BAD. The problem is, I don't know where MU can turn.

[GGGG]

you tell me, in games against quality teams (quality of ASU and SDSU remains to be seen yet).

OSU -  19 pts in first 20 mins

ASU -  18 pts in first 12 mins

SDSU – 17 pts in in first 15 mins

not exactly an offensive juggernaut....


Scoring averages of the starting lineup (all games)

J Wilson 10.5 
C Otule 7.4
J Thomas 7.3
D Wilson 5.5
J Andersen 4.4

Not exactly scoring machines....  considering Jake ts using come much later in the game as well...

OK, and how are the other teams scoring during the same time frame?