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keefe



Death on call

Blue Horseshoe

Quote from: keefe on November 19, 2013, 04:51:33 PM
Perhaps the truest gauge of Pugilism's Fall



Not seeing the correlation between the number of boxing cartoons that appeared in the New Yorker and concussions caused by playing football.

keefe

Quote from: Blue Horseshoe on November 19, 2013, 05:07:48 PM
Not seeing the correlation between the number of boxing cartoons that appeared in the New Yorker and concussions caused by playing football.

There was an earlier thread, now locked, where some people see parallels between the decline of Boxing for reasons of its brutality and the impact of concussions on football. One question was how to measure boxing's decline.


Death on call

brandx

Quote from: keefe on November 19, 2013, 05:12:57 PM
There was an earlier thread, now locked, where some people see parallels between the decline of Boxing for reasons of its brutality and the impact of concussions on football. One question was how to measure boxing's decline.

Even though I said the popularity of football will decline - it will not fall off a cliff. It will continue to be popular - but I think we have seen that popularity reach it's peak and will see a slow decline.

ChicosBailBonds

Quote from: brandx on November 19, 2013, 06:28:56 PM
Even though I said the popularity of football will decline - it will not fall off a cliff. It will continue to be popular - but I think we have seen that popularity reach it's peak and will see a slow decline.

That may be, but it won't be usurped by anything currently around.  It's like saying Miss California isn't as hot this year as she was last year, even though she's still pretty smoking hot.


Dr. Blackheart

Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on November 19, 2013, 06:32:56 PM
That may be, but it won't be usurped by anything currently around.  It's like saying Miss California isn't as hot this year as she was last year, even though she's still pretty smoking hot

What a minute, wasn't your aunt a former Miss California? 

keefe

Quote from: brandx on November 19, 2013, 06:28:56 PM
Even though I said the popularity of football will decline - it will not fall off a cliff. It will continue to be popular - but I think we have seen that popularity reach it's peak and will see a slow decline.

I agree with you. I think football popularity has peaked and the decline has been triggered by health issues. I love college football but there is a huge difference between the size, strength, and speed of Jerry Ford's era and today. The intensity of the sport has increased dramatically and unless changes in rules or technology are introduced the injuries will continue.

Chico is correct in saying football remains popular today but what will it be in 40 years? Nobody predicted the precipitous decline in Boxing's popularity.


Death on call

brandx

Quote from: keefe on November 19, 2013, 07:26:18 PM
I agree with you. I think football popularity has peaked and the decline has been triggered by health issues. I love college football but there is a huge difference between the size, strength, and speed of Jerry Ford's era and today. The intensity of the sport has increased dramatically and unless changes in rules or technology are introduced the injuries will continue.

Chico is correct in saying football remains popular today but what will it be in 40 years? Nobody predicted the precipitous decline in Boxing's popularity.

I think this is key.

Spotcheck Billy

but where is the study on the number of New Yorker football cartoons?

Canned Goods n Ammo

Football isn't suddenly going to go away.

However, it would be very difficult for it to continue to grow, and/or even stay at the top.

Eventually, people will migrate to something else.

Fads change, and for a certain percentage of fans, football is simply a fad.




Coleman

#10
Quote from: Guns n Ammo on November 20, 2013, 10:45:00 AM
Football isn't suddenly going to go away.

However, it would be very difficult for it to continue to grow, and/or even stay at the top.

Eventually, people will migrate to something else.

Fads change, and for a certain percentage of fans, football is simply a fad.



I think football is more than a fad. It has staying power. It will probably the most popular, profitable, and watched sport in the US for years to come.

But I agree that it has peaked. This is as popular as football will ever be.

The question is, what would take its place?  Or at least chip away at its market share of the sports world?

I don't think it will be baseball, basketball, or hockey. It will have to be something else.

I thought for a while golf might take a run at it. During the peak of the Tiger Woods years. But I think that window has passed.

TallTitan34

Quote from: Bleuteaux on November 20, 2013, 10:56:58 AM
I thought for a while golf might take a run at it. During the peak of the Tiger Woods years. But I think that window has passed.

At no point did golf ever have a shot of becoming number 1.

hairy worthen

Quote from: Guns n Ammo on November 20, 2013, 10:45:00 AM
Football isn't suddenly going to go away.

However, it would be very difficult for it to continue to grow, and/or even stay at the top.

Eventually, people will migrate to something else.

Fads change, and for a certain percentage of fans, football is simply a fad.





fantasy football, yes definitely a fad. The game of football, not a fad. I think you are correct for a certain number of fans it is a fad, but mainly because of fantasy football.

Canned Goods n Ammo

Quote from: hairyworthen on November 20, 2013, 12:50:58 PM
fantasy football, yes definitely a fad. The game of football, not a fad. I think you are correct for a certain number of fans it is a fad, but mainly because of fantasy football.

Well, with any fad, there are a number of people who are "true believers", and there are "posers".

Football is not going to fall far (a lot of hardcore fans), but there is a saturation point. I think football has reached it.

Nascar reached it about 8 years ago.

A chunk of fans will eventually get bored with football and find something else to do.

The Superbowl is always going to be huge. Networks are always going to pay a lot of money for broadcast. But, I don't think it's going to be the automatic gravy train that it has become in the past 10-15 years. It'll level off and decline somewhat.

Coleman

#14
Quote from: TallTitan34 on November 20, 2013, 12:45:04 PM
At no point did golf ever have a shot of becoming number 1.

It never got close. I never claimed it did. But there was a year or two at the beginning of the Tiger Woods phenomenon when I think it looked like it could.

My point was, if anything is going to replace football, its going to be something new. Basketball, baseball, Nascar and hockey are not going to displace it.

ChicosBailBonds

Quote from: Dr. Blackheart on November 19, 2013, 06:40:38 PM
What a minute, wasn't your aunt a former Miss California? 

My aunt was a former Hurricane Honey at the University of Miami.  During the Ted Hendricks football days. 

ChicosBailBonds

Quote from: keefe on November 19, 2013, 07:26:18 PM


Chico is correct in saying football remains popular today but what will it be in 40 years? Nobody predicted the precipitous decline in Boxing's popularity.

Boxing's decline was Self inflicted.  I don't believe the NFL is that stupid.

ChicosBailBonds

Quote from: Guns n Ammo on November 20, 2013, 10:45:00 AM
Football isn't suddenly going to go away.

However, it would be very difficult for it to continue to grow, and/or even stay at the top.

Eventually, people will migrate to something else.

Fads change, and for a certain percentage of fans, football is simply a fad.


The lead it has is so large, it's hard to see it NOT stay on top.  I'd love to hear what is going to replace it since the numbers are so massively in their favor.  When baseball was the most popular sport, it was not much higher than the NFL.  Now, the NFL is one, college football (it's feeder) is number two and they trounce everything else.

ChicosBailBonds

Quote from: hairyworthen on November 20, 2013, 12:50:58 PM
fantasy football, yes definitely a fad. The game of football, not a fad. I think you are correct for a certain number of fans it is a fad, but mainly because of fantasy football.

Fantasy football may be a fad, but still growing.  It crosses over to women now and people that don't even watch football that much.  The numbers are pretty staggering.

Spotcheck Billy

fantasy football could be a fad just like cigar smoking and homebrewing were 10-15 years ago

brandx

Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on November 20, 2013, 01:59:02 PM
Fantasy football may be a fad, but still growing.  It crosses over to women now and people that don't even watch football that much.  The numbers are pretty staggering.

They made in idiot proof so anyone can play. Smart move

Canned Goods n Ammo

Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on November 20, 2013, 01:57:31 PM
The lead it has is so large, it's hard to see it NOT stay on top.  I'd love to hear what is going to replace it since the numbers are so massively in their favor.  When baseball was the most popular sport, it was not much higher than the NFL.  Now, the NFL is one, college football (it's feeder) is number two and they trounce everything else.

You're missing what I'm saying.

The NFL might be America's #1 sport from now until forever. Fine.

But, there is a saturation point where the sport just won't grow anymore and will decline somewhat. That doesn't mean it will go away. That doesn't mean baseball will be #1 again.

What it means is that football is a very popular fad right now... and eventually, some of the people who love the fad (but not really football) are going to move onto something else.

NASCAR picked up a lot of fans from about 1995-2006. As the fad wore off, the numbers declined back to their "normal" levels.

Football is here to stay... but this might be its zenith.

ChicosBailBonds

Quote from: Guns n Ammo on November 20, 2013, 09:33:37 PM
You're missing what I'm saying.

The NFL might be America's #1 sport from now until forever. Fine.

But, there is a saturation point where the sport just won't grow anymore and will decline somewhat. That doesn't mean it will go away. That doesn't mean baseball will be #1 again.

What it means is that football is a very popular fad right now... and eventually, some of the people who love the fad (but not really football) are going to move onto something else.

NASCAR picked up a lot of fans from about 1995-2006. As the fad wore off, the numbers declined back to their "normal" levels.

Football is here to stay... but this might be its zenith.

Don't think I missed it at all, that's how I took it except for one part where you say it may be difficult for it to stay on top.  I agree with everything else, that it could fade and still be #1, could be at a saturation point, etc, etc....I just don't see it being topped anytime for a long long time.


Canned Goods n Ammo

Quote from: ChicosBailBonds on November 20, 2013, 11:42:43 PM
Don't think I missed it at all, that's how I took it except for one part where you say it may be difficult for it to stay on top.  I agree with everything else, that it could fade and still be #1, could be at a saturation point, etc, etc....I just don't see it being topped anytime for a long long time.



That's fair. I don't think it will be topped either, but it's not going to be the runaway gravy train that it has become. (or at least what some people perceive it as).

You can only sell X amount of sweatshirts. You can only get people to watch X hours per week. Eventually it'll have reached its peak, and it will regress somewhat.


Hards Alumni

Quote from: Guns n Ammo on November 21, 2013, 08:08:25 AM
That's fair. I don't think it will be topped either, but it's not going to be the runaway gravy train that it has become. (or at least what some people perceive it as).

You can only sell X amount of sweatshirts. You can only get people to watch X hours per week. Eventually it'll have reached its peak, and it will regress somewhat.



I feel totally saturated at this point.  Football is on television 5 days a week (probably more).  I mostly ignore college football for this exact reason.  Even NFL on Thursdays is terribad.

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