Football Concussions and Boxing's Decline

[hairy worthen]

Fantasy football may be a fad, but still growing.  It crosses over to women now and people that don't even watch football that much.  The numbers are pretty staggering.

I agree, 

The point I am making is there are many people who play fantasy football that really don’t care about the game of football. Those are the people who will be the first to drop off. The base of fans who like the game of football is larger than any other sport, and those fans are unlikely to drop off.

Guns, as far as saturation point you are absolutely correct, football is near or at that point now and I would say that for both nfl and college.  My guess is that the nfl will try to go overseas,  or Mexico to maintain the growth. You know the old business adage, “if you are not growing, you are dying.”

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

I feel totally saturated at this point.  Football is on television 5 days a week (probably more).  I mostly ignore college football for this exact reason.  Even NFL on Thursdays is terribad.

I agree. I'm a casual NFL fan. I like the games. It's entertaining.

However, the amount of hype, energy and angst wasted on NFL (myself included) gets old for me.

I can't sit inside watching TV for 6 hours on a nice fall afternoon. MNF used to be tune in viewing for me as a kid. Now I could take or leave it.

It's just entertainment for me, and if it's not entertaining, I'll do something else.

[Lennys Tap]

The thing that sets football (especially the NFL) apart from other sports is gambling. It's a game that lends itself to both point spread and fantasy gambling. Millions of NFL "fans" don't care who wins the game, but who "covers" and whether "their players" do well statistically.

[brandx]

The thing that sets football (especially the NFL) apart from other sports is gambling. It's a game that lends itself to both point spread and fantasy gambling. Millions of NFL "fans" don't care who wins the game, but who "covers" and whether "their players" do well statistically.

Baseball is a terrible game to bet on and the NBA is a crapshoot for betting.

[ChicosBailBonds]

That's fair. I don't think it will be topped either, but it's not going to be the runaway gravy train that it has become. (or at least what some people perceive it as).

You can only sell X amount of sweatshirts. You can only get people to watch X hours per week. Eventually it'll have reached its peak, and it will regress somewhat.

True, that's why marketers change uniforms to get you to buy a new sweatshirt, a new jersey,, etc. 

As far as the runaway gravy train, we will agree to disagree.  Just wait until you see the next contracts.  One should be coming down the track here fairly soon.  Lots of money, lots of gravy.

[brandx]

True, that's why marketers change uniforms to get you to buy a new sweatshirt, a new jersey,, etc. 

As far as the runaway gravy train, we will agree to disagree.  Just wait until you see the next contracts.  One should be coming down the track here fairly soon.  Lots of money, lots of gravy.

In 2008, there were lots of guys telling you to get on the stock market gravy train too.

[ChicosBailBonds]

In 2008, there were lots of guys telling you to get on the stock market gravy train too.

And if you had, you would be doing just find right now, especially if you bought on the way down.

[brandx]

And if you had, you would be doing just find right now, especially if you bought on the way down.

Interesting philosophy - buy right before a crash.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Interesting philosophy - buy right before a crash.

My philosophy is simple at my age, buy all the time, but definitely buy during a crash, buy like crazy on the way down.  You'll feel sick while doing it, until the inevitable bounce back happens.

When I get older, I'll get a lot more conservative because time isn't on my side to wait for the bounce back.

Real estate, that's a different story.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

True, that's why marketers change uniforms to get you to buy a new sweatshirt, a new jersey,, etc. 

As far as the runaway gravy train, we will agree to disagree.  Just wait until you see the next contracts.  One should be coming down the track here fairly soon.  Lots of money, lots of gravy.

I understand that they are always changing designs, and the NFL is going to sign another HUGE TV deal.

I get it.

But, at some point, everybody who can afford an NFL sweatshirt is going to already own 6 of them. Everybody who watches football is already going to be watching 5 games per week.

This is true in ANY business. At some point, there is an absolute saturation of the market, and there isn't really anybody left to add.

That doesn't mean football is going to fall off a cliff... but it can't grow forever, and there will be a market correction at some point. It could be another 10 years. It could be 10 months.

[ChicosBailBonds]

I understand that they are always changing designs, and the NFL is going to sign another HUGE TV deal.

I get it.

But, at some point, everybody who can afford an NFL sweatshirt is going to already own 6 of them. Everybody who watches football is already going to be watching 5 games per week.

This is true in ANY business. At some point, there is an absolute saturation of the market, and there isn't really anybody left to add.

That doesn't mean football is going to fall off a cliff... but it can't grow forever, and there will be a market correction at some point. It could be another 10 years. It could be 10 months.

Get what you are saying, that's why they are going to expand to Europe...grow their market.  Don't be surprised to see a team in Mexico City, same thing...grow their market.  Absolute saturation can apply to certain areas and not be universal. 

I don't disagree with any of you that it will eventually take a slide back, especially in today's day and age with so many other options of entertainment out there.  There just isn't any other live sport that comes close to competing with it.   

[Coleman]

My philosophy is simple at my age, buy all the time, but definitely buy during a crash, buy like crazy on the way down.  You'll feel sick while doing it, until the inevitable bounce back happens.

When I get older, I'll get a lot more conservative because time isn't on my side to wait for the bounce back.

Real estate, that's a different story.

With equities, you are right. There is really never a bad time to buy. There are plenty of bad times to sell. I like this quote from Warren Buffet:

Of course, the immediate future is uncertain; America has faced the unknown since 1776. It’s just that sometimes people focus on the myriad of uncertainties that always exist while at other times they ignore them (usually because the recent past has been uneventful). American business will do fine over time. And stocks will do well just as certainly, since their fate is tied to business performance. Periodic setbacks will occur, yes, but investors and managers are in a game that is heavily stacked in their favor. (The Dow Jones Industrials advanced from 66 to 11,497 in the 20th Century, a staggering 17,320% increase that materialized despite four costly wars, a Great Depression and many recessions. And don’t forget that shareholders received substantial dividends throughout the century as well.)

Since the basic game is so favorable, Charlie and I believe it’s a terrible mistake to try to dance in and out of it based upon the turn of tarot cards, the predictions of “experts,” or the ebb and flow of business activity. The risks of being out of the game are huge compared to the risks of being in it. My own history provides a dramatic example: I made my first stock purchase in the spring of 1942 when the U.S. was suffering major losses throughout the Pacific war zone. Each day’s headlines told of more setbacks. Even so, there was no talk about uncertainty; every American I knew believed we would prevail. The country’s success since that perilous time boggles the mind: On an inflation-adjusted basis, GDP per capita more than quadrupled between 1941 and 2012. Throughout that period, every tomorrow has been uncertain. America’s destiny, however, has always been clear: ever-increasing abundance.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Yup, agree with Warren...especially some of his top 10 stocks right now.   

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2013/11/17/warren-buffett-s-10-favorite-stocks/3614505/

[brandx]

My philosophy is simple at my age, buy all the time, but definitely buy during a crash, buy like crazy on the way down.  You'll feel sick while doing it, until the inevitable bounce back happens.

When I get older, I'll get a lot more conservative because time isn't on my side to wait for the bounce back.

Real estate, that's a different story.

Not quite what I said. Buying before a crash and buying during a crash are not the same.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Not quite what I said. Buying before a crash and buying during a crash are not the same.

Understood, but who on this planet is able to correctly pick when a crash is going to happen?  Therefore, buy all the time.

[Coleman]

Understood, but who on this planet is able to correctly pick when a crash is going to happen?  Therefore, buy all the time.

Chicos is right. Look up dollar cost averaging.

Put in X amount every 2 weeks, month, whatever.

Keep buying. Don't stop. If stocks are high you are worth more. If stocks are low you get dirt-cheap shares, and more of them for your dollar. You really can't lose. Markets don't stay down forever.

If you had started investing in 2008, right at the market peak, and kept putting in the same amount throughout the crash, through the recovery, and up to today, you would be just fine. In fact, your returns would be outstanding.

The problem is when people try to time the market, like brandx is suggesting. They somehow think they are smarter than everyone, should stop buying at the peak, sell high, and buy low. Good luck getting that timing right. That isn't investing, its gambling.

[brandx]

The problem is when people try to time the market, like brandx is suggesting. They somehow think they are smarter than everyone, should stop buying at the peak, sell high, and buy low. Good luck getting that timing right. That isn't investing, its gambling.

I suggested this ....when????  I said I was smarter than everyone....when?

Apparently, I am smarter than you when it comes to reading comprehension.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Chicos is right. Look up dollar cost averaging.

Put in X amount every 2 weeks, month, whatever.

Keep buying. Don't stop. If stocks are high you are worth more. If stocks are low you get dirt-cheap shares, and more of them for your dollar. You really can't lose. Markets don't stay down forever.

If you had started investing in 2008, right at the market peak, and kept putting in the same amount throughout the crash, through the recovery, and up to today, you would be just fine. In fact, your returns would be outstanding.

The problem is when people try to time the market, like brandx is suggesting. They somehow think they are smarter than everyone, should stop buying at the peak, sell high, and buy low. Good luck getting that timing right. That isn't investing, its gambling.

With stocks, and a long-term growth plan, you are absolutely correct.

However, with "investments" overall, you should definitely avoid buying at the peak, sell high, and buy low. Commodities, real estate, small businesses, classic cars, antique furniture, craigslist, etc.

The entire GOAL is to buy low and sell high.

[Coleman]

With stocks, and a long-term growth plan, you are absolutely correct.

However, with "investments" overall, you should definitely avoid buying at the peak, sell high, and buy low. Commodities, real estate, small businesses, classic cars, antique furniture, craigslist, etc.

The entire GOAL is to buy low and sell high.

If you look above, I was speaking strictly about equities.

I agree with you about everything else.

[Coleman]

I suggested this ....when????  I said I was smarter than everyone....when?

Apparently, I am smarter than you when it comes to reading comprehension.

You implied it was better to time stock purchases based on the market, did you not?

[brandx]

You implied it was better to time stock purchases based on the market, did you not?

No. I didn't. It was just an aside to Chico based on what he said.

I'm not smart enough to predict markets. I made a lot only because I put in a lot - max 401k every year and then more through financial advisor amounting to 33% of my income for many years.

It's why I choose to not work anymore...maybe I will eventually, but, for now there are too many other things I want to do.

[Coleman]

No. I didn't. It was just an aside to Chico based on what he said.

I'm not smart enough to predict markets. I made a lot only because I put in a lot - max 401k every year and then more through financial advisor amounting to 33% of my income for many years.

It's why I choose to not work anymore...maybe I will eventually, but, for now there are too many other things I want to do.

Alright. My bad then. I misunderstood.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

If you look above, I was speaking strictly about equities.

I agree with you about everything else.

fair.

I only bring it up because I think football might be at it's peak, or near peak.

If football was a "stock", I'd ride it out (like Apple)... but if football was real estate, I might try to get out soon. Better to sell a year too early than a year too late.

[Eldon]

With equities, you are right. There is really never a bad time to buy. There are plenty of bad times to sell. I like this quote from Warren Buffet:

Of course, the immediate future is uncertain; America has faced the unknown since 1776. It’s just that sometimes people focus on the myriad of uncertainties that always exist while at other times they ignore them (usually because the recent past has been uneventful). American business will do fine over time. And stocks will do well just as certainly, since their fate is tied to business performance. Periodic setbacks will occur, yes, but investors and managers are in a game that is heavily stacked in their favor. (The Dow Jones Industrials advanced from 66 to 11,497 in the 20th Century, a staggering 17,320% increase that materialized despite four costly wars, a Great Depression and many recessions. And don’t forget that shareholders received substantial dividends throughout the century as well.)

Since the basic game is so favorable, Charlie and I believe it’s a terrible mistake to try to dance in and out of it based upon the turn of tarot cards, the predictions of “experts,” or the ebb and flow of business activity. The risks of being out of the game are huge compared to the risks of being in it. My own history provides a dramatic example: I made my first stock purchase in the spring of 1942 when the U.S. was suffering major losses throughout the Pacific war zone. Each day’s headlines told of more setbacks. Even so, there was no talk about uncertainty; every American I knew believed we would prevail. The country’s success since that perilous time boggles the mind: On an inflation-adjusted basis, GDP per capita more than quadrupled between 1941 and 2012. Throughout that period, every tomorrow has been uncertain. America’s destiny, however, has always been clear: ever-increasing abundance.

Wall Street is, was, and always will be a random walk.

So is Warren Buffet good?  Or is he the luckiest man to ever walk the face of the earth?

[Coleman]

Wall Street is, was, and always will be a random walk.

So is Warren Buffet good?  Or is he the luckiest man to ever walk the face of the earth?

Luck is probably part of it. He's made some good bets.

But what he is saying is, you don't even have to be lucky to get rich. You just have to be patient. And he's right. Its common sense