Odds on MU winning the NCAA tourney

[Babybluejeans]

On my favorite sports betting website, MU is +12500 to win the whole thing. For you non-betters, that means a $100 bet wins $12,500 if we cut down the nets in April. Now, normally things like that aren't worth mentioning except...doesn't that seem a little undervalued?

I'm not suggesting that it's likely or even reasonable to expect this team to win the NCAA championship. I'm simply talking about value. Vegas is essentially saying that Marquette has a less than 1% chance to win it all (0.7% to be exact). By comparison, Georgetown is +8500 ($100 to win $8,500; 1.1% chance) which is a much worse value compared to Marquette considering Marquette is probably a better bet even if the odds were the same for both. This is probably due in large part to the fact that G'town is a more popular program which will inflate its perceived value. But still, even if you're not an MU fan, it's hard to deny the value in that wager--teams near MU in the rankings (Gonzaga, Memphis, Oregon, UConn) all give substantially worse odds despite (likely) being no better than Marquette. 

My point is simply this: I'm bored at work. But also this: if you have a few dollars to throw around ($25 to win $3,125, e.g.), it might be worth putting a little action on it. Although you probably won't win, the numbers say you are getting a bargain.

[bilsu]

It is still a bad bet.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

On my favorite sports betting website, MU is +12500 to win the whole thing. For you non-betters, that means a $100 bet wins $12,500 if we cut down the nets in April. Now, normally things like that aren't worth mentioning except...doesn't that seem a little undervalued?

I'm not suggesting that it's likely or even reasonable to expect this team to win the NCAA championship. I'm simply talking about value. Vegas is essentially saying that Marquette has a less than 1% chance to win it all (0.7% to be exact). By comparison, Georgetown is +8500 ($100 to win $8,500; 1.1% chance) which is a much worse value compared to Marquette considering Marquette is probably a better bet even if the odds were the same for both. This is probably due in large part to the fact that G'town is a more popular program which will inflate its perceived value. But still, even if you're not an MU fan, it's hard to deny the value in that wager--teams near MU in the rankings (Gonzaga, Memphis, Oregon, UConn) all give substantially worse odds despite (likely) being no better than Marquette. 

My point is simply this: I'm bored at work. But also this: if you have a few dollars to throw around ($25 to win $3,125, e.g.), it might be worth putting a little action on it. Although you probably won't win, the numbers say you are getting a bargain.

There you go. Vegas always seeks to make money. There are more Georgetown alumni who are willing to put money on the Hoyas. They need to insure themselves in case Georgetown does cut down the nets.

[LAZER]

There you go. Vegas always seeks to make money. There are more Georgetown alumni who are willing to put money on the Hoyas. They need to insure themselves in case Georgetown does cut down the nets.

This is not how Vegas operates.

[jsglow]

While a proposition bet as described is a bit of a different animal, Vegas bookmakers seek to have exactly equal dollars bet on each side of a heads up contest and set the daily line accordingly.  The theory is very simple mathematics.  $1,000,000 in bets win, $1,000,000 in bets lose and the house takes the 'rake'.  Vegas never wants a dog directly in the fight as that entails risk for the casino.  Boring, I know.

I recall doing quite well during Jimmy Butler's Senior year as proportionately less was being bet on MU and the lines were regularly inflated to achieve proper balance.  We were simply an unknown commodity that particular year.  For the same reason, never bet the Dodgers out there (or the hapless Cubs for that matter).  In fact it might be argued that betting against them might yield a measurable unexpected return.

[Marqevans]

Why not just say 125 to 1?

[NersEllenson]

On my favorite sports betting website, MU is +12500 to win the whole thing. For you non-betters, that means a $100 bet wins $12,500 if we cut down the nets in April. Now, normally things like that aren't worth mentioning except...doesn't that seem a little undervalued?

I'm not suggesting that it's likely or even reasonable to expect this team to win the NCAA championship. I'm simply talking about value. Vegas is essentially saying that Marquette has a less than 1% chance to win it all (0.7% to be exact). By comparison, Georgetown is +8500 ($100 to win $8,500; 1.1% chance) which is a much worse value compared to Marquette considering Marquette is probably a better bet even if the odds were the same for both. This is probably due in large part to the fact that G'town is a more popular program which will inflate its perceived value. But still, even if you're not an MU fan, it's hard to deny the value in that wager--teams near MU in the rankings (Gonzaga, Memphis, Oregon, UConn) all give substantially worse odds despite (likely) being no better than Marquette. 

My point is simply this: I'm bored at work. But also this: if you have a few dollars to throw around ($25 to win $3,125, e.g.), it might be worth putting a little action on it. Although you probably won't win, the numbers say you are getting a bargain.

Which website?!  Yes, I think I'm gonna throw down $50.

[Babybluejeans]

Sportsbook.com

[NersEllenson]

Sportsbook.com

Thank you..

[mileskishnish72]

It's a better bet than a scratch ticket.

[MU82]

What the hell ... I'm bettin' a cool mil on Buzz's lads.

Maybe I'll bet a mil on GTown, too.

I know, I know ... a million here, a million there ... pretty soon you're talkin' about real money!

[Fullodds]

You don't need MU to win it all to win money.   If they make it to the Elite 8 again and especially the Final Four, you start to hedge on other teams v. the long-shot ticket.  You can basically bet against MU through to the finals and still win money.  Not as exciting as the longshot but singles and doubles win the game.

[Lennys Tap]

You don't need MU to win it all to win money.   If they make it to the Elite 8 again and especially the Final Four, you start to hedge on other teams v. the long-shot ticket.  You can basically bet against MU through to the finals and still win money.  Not as exciting as the longshot but singles and doubles win the game.

You're a man after my own heart, Odds. If you get your longshot to the Elite 8 there's no excuse for going home empty handed.

[NersEllenson]

You don't need MU to win it all to win money.   If they make it to the Elite 8 again and especially the Final Four, you start to hedge on other teams v. the long-shot ticket.  You can basically bet against MU through to the finals and still win money.  Not as exciting as the longshot but singles and doubles win the game.

Great point....and FYI....in the Vegas casinos today....you can only get MU at 50:1...so there is major value on sportsbook.com - I got in for $70 - what the hell...as easy as it is to blow $70...why not take a flyer on a team I am very bullish on..and of course a homer for.   

[Benny B]

Great point....and FYI....in the Vegas casinos today....you can only get MU at 50:1...so there is major value on sportsbook.com - I got in for $70 - what the hell...as easy as it is to blow $70...why not take a flyer on a team I am very bullish on..and of course a homer for.   

I smell arbitrage.  Now if I can just figure out a proxy for laying odds on a futures bet...

[Coleman]