Why waiting 5 years to completely judge is just prudent

[ChicosBailBonds]

Add another one to the ever growing list of coaches that start out great but don't make it past 5 years (including those with MU ties like Mike Deane, Kevin O'Neill)

Lane Kiffin, fired this morning in his 4th season.  This after going 10-2 two years ago and ranked #1 to start last year with USC fans coronating and anointing him as Pete Carroll part deux.

Waiting 5 years is silly?  Uhm, no.  It is prudent.  Also why giving a coach a huge reciprocal buyout is silly in my opinion.


Lane Kiffin
Charlie Weiss & Ty Willingham
Mike Deane
Bruiser Flint
Kevin O'Neill (at other programs)
Dan Hawkins
Gene Chizik

And 100's of others over the years

[Pakuni]

So, it's pretty obvious USC and Haden acted capriciously here, and should have kept Kiffin at least another year and half before prematurely judging him a failure.
Right?
I hope you're over on the USC boards telling them their team pulled the trigger too soon because Kiffin should have had five years before being judged.

[Jay Bee]

Add another one to the ever growing list of coaches that start out great but don't make it past 5 years (including those with MU ties like Mike Deane, Kevin O'Neill)

Lane Kiffin, fired this morning in his 4th season.  This after going 10-2 two years ago and ranked #1 to start last year with USC fans coronating and anointing him as Pete Carroll part deux.

Waiting 5 years is silly?  Uhm, no.  It is prudent.  Also why giving a coach a huge reciprocal buyout is silly in my opinion.


Lane Kiffin
Charlie Weiss & Ty Willingham
Mike Deane
Bruiser Flint
Kevin O'Neill (at other programs)
Dan Hawkins
Gene Chizik

And 100's of others over the years

Just to be clear - barely anyone gives EQUAL reciprocal buyouts (can't tell if you meant reciprocal with respect to their being a buyout going both way, but perhaps different amounts.. which happens all the time.. or if you meant equal amounts, which is exceedingly rare). UCLA somehow got Alford to ink such a deal. In most cases, the school allows a relatively large buyout if they terminate the coach early whereas the coach has to pay far less (sometimes quickly amortizing down to a nominal amount or zero) if they leave early.

Crean obviously left Marquette for pennies (relatively speaking). In his current deal with Indiana, it started off (last Nov) with the school owing him twice ($16MM!) for initiating early termination as compared to what he would have to pay should he chose to leave ($8MM, or 50%!).

I understand your point and there are a million angles to it. I am merely pointing out the fact that "equal reciprocal buyouts" are incredibly rare. UCLA was able to broker such a deal with Alford though.

--------------

Anyway, back to Kiffin. If you know he's not the guy for the job, then you make the decision. The idea that you shouldn't decide on his future with your school until 5 years have past is ridiculous. There are many reasons why a coach may be fired.

If you know you don't want the guy around, firing him may be prudent (after considering other factors, of course).

With that said, I wouldn't mind Minnesota firing Kill and adding Kiffin later today.

[Lennys Tap]

Establishing a 5 year RULE to judge whether a coach, athletic director, school president, etc. is a success is stupid. Stubbornly waiting 5 years to fire a disaster or reward great success is stupid. Sometimes it takes 5 years to know, sometimes it doesn't. Smart, decisive people make the call when it's appropriate. Sheep establish and hide behind a "rule", in essence washing their hands and letting decisions make themselves. Anybody who couldn't figure out that Buzz Wiilliams was the real deal until April of this year is a moron. And, of course, anybody (was there anybody?) who declared Kiffin the second coming of John McKay, John Robinson or Pete Carrol because of one 10-2 season at a school with 10 or 11 national championships is likewise.

[jesmu84]

Add another one to the ever growing list of coaches that start out great but don't make it past 5 years (including those with MU ties like Mike Deane, Kevin O'Neill)

Lane Kiffin, fired this morning in his 4th season.  This after going 10-2 two years ago and ranked #1 to start last year with USC fans coronating and anointing him as Pete Carroll part deux.

Waiting 5 years is silly?  Uhm, no.  It is prudent.  Also why giving a coach a huge reciprocal buyout is silly in my opinion.


Lane Kiffin
Charlie Weiss & Ty Willingham
Mike Deane
Bruiser Flint
Kevin O'Neill (at other programs)
Dan Hawkins
Gene Chizik

And 100's of others over the years

I honestly don't understand.. did USC do the incorrect thing by not waiting 5 years?

Or are you saying you can condemn a coach before 5 years, but you can't coronate them? Because that seems pretty ridiculous to hold the standard one way but not the other.

[Silkk the Shaka]

So, it's pretty obvious USC and Haden acted capriciously here, and should have kept Kiffin at least another year and half before prematurely judging him a failure.
Right?
I hope you're over on the USC boards telling them their team pulled the trigger too soon because Kiffin should have had five years before being judged.

Chicos just got served.

[keefe]

With that said, I wouldn't mind Minnesota firing Kill and adding Kiffin later today.

Does Minnesota have a football team? I know they don't have a Little Brown Jug!

[NersEllenson]

Establishing a 5 year RULE to judge whether a coach, athletic director, school president, etc. is a success is stupid. Stubbornly waiting 5 years to fire a disaster or reward great success is stupid. Sometimes it takes 5 years to know, sometimes it doesn't. Smart, decisive people make the call when it's appropriate. Sheep establish and hide behind a "rule", in essence washing their hands and letting decisions make themselves. Anybody who couldn't figure out that Buzz Wiilliams was the real deal until April of this year is a moron. And, of course, anybody (was there anybody?) who declared Kiffin the second coming of John McKay, John Robinson or Pete Carrol because of one 10-2 season at a school with 10 or 11 national championships is likewise.

Thank you Lenny - In fact, if you couldn't figure out that Buzz had "it" after just 1 year - I'd say one certainly wasn't very adept at recognizing talent.

Funny, I just said to my girlfriend last week after watching a Kiffin post game press conference - "Wow, how un-inspiring is that guy?"  Just totally flat.  Perhaps he was just worn out from things at USC, but it is clear they guy doesn't have "it." 

[79Warrior]

Add another one to the ever growing list of coaches that start out great but don't make it past 5 years (including those with MU ties like Mike Deane, Kevin O'Neill)

Lane Kiffin, fired this morning in his 4th season.  This after going 10-2 two years ago and ranked #1 to start last year with USC fans coronating and anointing him as Pete Carroll part deux.

Waiting 5 years is silly?  Uhm, no.  It is prudent.  Also why giving a coach a huge reciprocal buyout is silly in my opinion.


Lane Kiffin
Charlie Weiss & Ty Willingham
Mike Deane
Bruiser Flint
Kevin O'Neill (at other programs)
Dan Hawkins
Gene Chizik

And 100's of others over the years

He is 28-15. Pretty poor record and not what is expected at SC. More importantly, you have no idea what is going on behind the scenes. Kiffin was a dead man walking barring a stellar season. Losing at home to Wash St then getting 61 points rung up on you last night sealed the deal.

Perhaps his bailing out on Tenn a few years back was a huge career mistake for him. He is clearly not ready to run a Top 10 program.
 

[Sunbelt15]

Isn't this the second or third time Kiffen been fired before completing contract, but leaving with all his cash? I wonder if another heag coaching job is in his future or does he moves to a coordinator.

[Jay Bee]

Does Minnesota have a football team? I know they don't have a Little Brown Jug!

They will next Saturday!

I'll watch the Gophers get demolished at Michigan on TV, then trot down the block to the Northwestern vs. Ohio State game. Should be a good atmosphere there... better than yesterday's game at TCF Bank Stadium.

[keefe]

They will next Saturday!

I'll watch the Gophers get demolished at Michigan on TV, then trot down the block to the Northwestern vs. Ohio State game. Should be a good atmosphere there... better than yesterday's game at TCF Bank Stadium.

I read that next Saturday is the 100th meeting between the two schools. We may take the piss out of the B1G but they have some awesome traditions. The Little Brown Jug is certainly one of the best.

"Yost left his Yug!"

[GGGG]

Isn't this the second or third time Kiffen been fired before completing contract, but leaving with all his cash? I wonder if another heag coaching job is in his future or does he moves to a coordinator.

He has shown no ability to coach whatsoever. 

[Atticus]

He has shown no ability to coach whatsoever. 

he can recruit tho. He will get a job on a staff somewhere.

UConn will be next to fire their coach. Maybe the Kitty can hide out in the AAC for a few years.

[Lennys Tap]

Add another one to the ever growing list of coaches that start out great but don't make it past 5 years (including those with MU ties like Mike Deane, Kevin O'Neill)

Lane Kiffin, fired this morning in his 4th season.  This after going 10-2 two years ago and ranked #1 to start last year with USC fans coronating and anointing him as Pete Carroll part deux.

Waiting 5 years is silly?  Uhm, no.  It is prudent.  Also why giving a coach a huge reciprocal buyout is silly in my opinion.


Lane Kiffin
Charlie Weiss & Ty Willingham
Mike Deane
Bruiser Flint
Kevin O'Neill (at other programs)
Dan Hawkins
Gene Chizik

And 100's of others over the years

Most of your examples on the prudence of waiting 5 years before "coronating" (sic) a coach are what's silly here.

Bruiser Flint - took over a program that had gone 35-2 (final four) 29-5 (elite eight) and 28-7, 24-7, 30-5 (all three sweet 16s) in the previous 5 years and went 19-14, 21-11, 14-16, 17-16, 15-15 with zero NCAA wins. In short, a failure from the start. Nobody ever anointed this guy anything - he should have been gone after year 3.

Dan Hawkins was at Colorado for 5 seasons, too. All losing ones - again, never anointed anything, probably should have been canned sooner.

Kevin O'Neill (after Marquette) had three losing seasons at Tennessee, then two of three losing seasons at Northwestern (15-14 in his "winning season). Again never anointed anything post Marquette.

It took Notre Dame only three years to bounce Willingham, not your requisite 5.

Chizik had two terrible seasons as a head coach at Iowa State (3-9, 2-10) before getting the Auburn job. They bought Cam Newton, won a national championship, then faded into oblivion, gone after four years.

Deane and Weiss (along with Flint and Hawkins) are the only guys in your group who got what you consider a fair shot (5 years). Mike was a good guy and a good coach who was never viewed as any more than that. In the end he was a victim of his own expectations.

Charlie W. is the only guy of all those you brought up who fills the bill as possible savior who turned into a bust, but many of those in the know at ND saw him for what he was (egotistical dick who was a "genius" only with Tom Brady throwing it and Bill Bellichek running things) right from the jump.

So anyone paying attention knew who these guys were before year 5. Same with today's young stars in the profession. Nobody except the most stubborn needed 5 years to figure Urban Meyer, Shaka Smart, Brad Stevens, Buzz Williams, etc. had "it".

[GGGG]

he can recruit tho. He will get a job on a staff somewhere.

UConn will be next to fire their coach. Maybe the Kitty can hide out in the AAC for a few years.

No doubt...but he wasn't much of an offensive coordinator though.

[GGGG]

If Chip Kelly flames out as an NFL coach, no prudent college football program will touch him because he was only head coach for four years.  Yeah, I mean he won four conference championships and was national runner up one year.  But still...

[GGGG]

BTW, this is the quintessential Chicos argument.  A long, long time ago, he made this 5 year statement to underpin one of his arguments.  And because he can never admit to be wrong, he will constantly bring this argument up, otherwise he will simply be shown to be wrong.

The fact is that there have been plenty of coaches that haven't needed five years to show they are high quality....and low quality.  Have there been some that started slow only to show their quality later on?  (Coach K)  Of course.  Have there been some that have started fast only shown to be poor?  (Weis)  Sure.

But the idea that some sort of "five year rule" is "prudent" is absurd.  And just remember, Chicos will never admit that no matter the evidence.  Because in so doing, he will have to admit he was wrong.

[WI inferiority Complexes]

I had to read a lot of this thread before I realized Lane Kiffen was the football coach at USC.
Now my only question is, who the unnatural carnal knowledge cares about the football coach at USC?

[79Warrior]

Isn't this the second or third time Kiffen been fired before completing contract, but leaving with all his cash? I wonder if another heag coaching job is in his future or does he moves to a coordinator.

He quit on Tennessee after one season to take the SC job.

[Lennys Tap]

BTW, this is the quintessential Chicos argument.  A long, long time ago, he made this 5 year statement to underpin one of his arguments.  And because he can never admit to be wrong, he will constantly bring this argument up, otherwise he will simply be shown to be wrong.

The fact is that there have been plenty of coaches that haven't needed five years to show they are high quality....and low quality.  Have there been some that started slow only to show their quality later on?  (Coach K)  Of course.  Have there been some that have started fast only shown to be poor?  (Weis)  Sure.

But the idea that some sort of "five year rule" is "prudent" is absurd.  And just remember, Chicos will never admit that no matter the evidence.  Because in so doing, he will have to admit he was wrong.

 Nailed it.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Establishing a 5 year RULE to judge whether a coach, athletic director, school president, etc. is a success is stupid. Stubbornly waiting 5 years to fire a disaster or reward great success is stupid. Sometimes it takes 5 years to know, sometimes it doesn't. Smart, decisive people make the call when it's appropriate. Sheep establish and hide behind a "rule", in essence washing their hands and letting decisions make themselves. Anybody who couldn't figure out that Buzz Wiilliams was the real deal until April of this year is a moron. And, of course, anybody (was there anybody?) who declared Kiffin the second coming of John McKay, John Robinson or Pete Carrol because of one 10-2 season at a school with 10 or 11 national championships is likewise.

I think you nailed it on the head here.

I'm a "5 year guy" because I think it takes some time to eliminate the variables and accurately evaluate the coach.

With this said, an AD and school President are much closer to the day to day operations, and often can see things before fans can.

I don't think AD's should have a "5 year rule", but I do think fans are far too reactionary, especially at the college level. Sometimes AD's have to act for PR purposes rather than good business decisions.

[NavinRJohnson]

I honestly don't understand.. did USC do the incorrect thing by not waiting 5 years?

Or are you saying you can condemn a coach before 5 years, but you can't coronate them? Because that seems pretty ridiculous to hold the standard one way but not the other.

I'd love some sort of response to this. Having read the original post a few times, and I honestly have no idea what point he is trying to make.

[Lennys Tap]

I think you nailed it on the head here.

I'm a "5 year guy" because I think it takes some time to eliminate the variables and accurately evaluate the coach.

With this said, an AD and school President are much closer to the day to day operations, and often can see things before fans can.

I don't think AD's should have a "5 year rule", but I do think fans are far too reactionary, especially at the college level. Sometimes AD's have to act for PR purposes rather than good business decisions.

So if you were a USC fan you would have been hoping that Kiffin be given another 2.7 years to further prove his inability to do the job?

[Jay Bee]

I'd love some sort of response to this. Having read the original post a few times, and I honestly have no idea what point he is trying to make.

I took his argument to be: A school should put a blindfold on for 5 years and make no judgment until that time has elapsed. They can't possibly have a clue until precisely 5 years have gone by.