So just how good is the (new) Big East?

[IL Warrior]

I'm going to break from this board's recent form of rehashing old threads and take a fresh look at the (new) Big East. There's been plenty of discussion about where the conference stands in the basketball landscape. Most of us here think of it as a high-major conference, in a group with the Big Ten, ACC, etc. Some outside of the Big East want to believe that any conference with Butler, Creighton, and Xavier (and some of the less successful Big East teams like DePaul and Seton Hall) must be mid-major, especially since we lack a true blueblood like Duke, Kansas, or Kentucky.

To take a statistical look at where we sit relative to other conferences, I looked over the schedules of all 10 Big East teams, and calculated each team's record against teams from each conference. I used each team's 2013-14 conference affiliations for this exercise (so I had to take into account that close to 50 teams are changing conference next year). The results are in this spreadsheet:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmDl1oZ8a73_dHpIdlFybHI3NWRIWGVFVGdQVTdHSXc#gid=0

Here are some interesting results:

2013-14 Big East vs ACC: 13-28 (Almost all of these games were played against the ACC's top teams: 12-25 against Duke, Miami, UNC, ND, Pitt, and Syracuse)
American Athletic (Old Big East/C-USA 2.0): 29-25 (Only 4 of these games were played against teams outside the Big East in 2012-13: 1-0 vs Memphis and 2-1 vs Temple)
Atlantic 10: 26-13 (Butler and Xavier played 30 of these 39 games. 7 of 13 losses came against potential future Big East teams Dayton, SLU, Richmond, and VCU)
Big Ten: 7-3 (Combined 3-2 vs NCAA tournament teams Illinois, IU, and Wisconsin)
Pac-12: 5-1 (Only loss was Seton Hall in overtime against Washington on a neutral floor)
SEC: 8-5 (Seton Hall (0-1), Creighton (0-0), and Xaiver (0-2) were the only teams that failed to beat an SEC opponent)
Combined Record vs AAC, ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-12, SEC (other power conferences): 63-64

From those numbers, the Big East looks like a true power conference.

[wardle2wade]

Great work.  Interesting stuff.

[Logi4three]

Great post. Thanks.

[MarquetteDano]

Thanks for the numbers.  One has to hope too that in the future things could be a bit better...

Nova was slightly down and one would have to think they will be better
St. John's should improve with the talent they have
Providence seems to be improving
Xavier is way down from where they normally are

Really only Creighton and, ahem, Marquette had better than average years.

[MUFlutieEffect]

These are some awesome stats - thanks for putting the time and effort in.

What about pre-season rankings though?  They seem to suggest that the AAC has a significantly better upper tier than the "new" Big East, with the former touting Louisville, UConn, and Memphis as unanimous Top 25 teams, while the latter provides only MU and a possibility of Creighton.

Don't mean to be the pessimist or hijack your awesome post - just a random thought.

[Les Nessman]

As we saw this year, pre-season rankings don't mean sh*t.

[Ellenson Guerrero]

As we saw this year, pre-season rankings don't mean sh*t.

Look at the preseason list of top 10 teams: http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings/_/year/2013/week/1/seasontype/2. Pretty damn accurate for not having seen the teams play yet.

[dgies9156]

Look at the preseason list of top 10 teams: http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings/_/year/2013/week/1/seasontype/2. Pretty damn accurate for not having seen the teams play yet.

Oh yeah, I'll bet they're real proud of ranking Kentucky third and North Carolina state sixth.

I'll also bet they're real proud of crowning Indiana the National Champion. Or not ranking us at all.

You read enough PR releases and you'll have the same teams every year. Why not just take all the "name" programs, throw them in a jar and rank them based on when you pull them out. It makes about as much sense.

[mileskishnish72]

Plus they had a certain Elite Eight team as 34th and 36th.

[martyconlonontherun]

Oh yeah, I'll bet they're real proud of ranking Kentucky third and North Carolina state sixth.

I'll also bet they're real proud of crowning Indiana the National Champion. Or not ranking us at all.

You read enough PR releases and you'll have the same teams every year. Why not just take all the "name" programs, throw them in a jar and rank them based on when you pull them out. It makes about as much sense.

On average, that list was pretty accurate. KU was a crap shoot and had a down  year. Just because we don't like they didn't earn the spot doesn't mean it wasn't smart to put them there.


I worry about Creighton long-term. Would be nice to have McDermott back another year to keep their brand up as they recruit new guys. They could fall middle of the pack really quickly.

[Ellenson Guerrero]

Oh yeah, I'll bet they're real proud of ranking Kentucky third and North Carolina state sixth.

I'll also bet they're real proud of crowning Indiana the National Champion. Or not ranking us at all.

You read enough PR releases and you'll have the same teams every year. Why not just take all the "name" programs, throw them in a jar and rank them based on when you pull them out. It makes about as much sense.

I was responding to a quote saying that the ranking didn't mean anything. I guess thats right if you expect 100% accuracy. But every team in the top 10 outside of UK and NCST that they ranked had a great year and made it to the S16. Preseason rankings aren't a perfect predictor of future success, but to say that they don't mean sh*t is asinine.

And yes, MU had a fantastic year, but that is the exception to the rule.

[keefe]

On average, that list was pretty accurate. KU was a crap shoot and had a down  year. Just because we don't like they didn't earn the spot doesn't mean it wasn't smart to put them there.


I worry about Creighton long-term. Would be nice to have McDermott back another year to keep their brand up as they recruit new guys. They could fall middle of the pack really quickly.

Who remembers Benoit Benjamin? Willis Reed started dating his mother and then Benjamin signed with Creighton. One of the strangest recruiting stories ever heard.

[mufib]

Great post! Thanks for running the numbers.

[Les Nessman]

They still don't have any significance. They have about as much significance as Charles Barkley or any other talking head predicting game outcomes. It's just filler.

[MU Buff]

I decided to go through the top 10 conferences, actually figure out who will be in what conference next year and average out this year's kenpom ratings.  That means Louisville and Rutgers are still in the AAC, Maryland is still in the ACC, etc.

A few observations as I was going through it:  The ACC really is turning into the Big East.  A lot of good to great teams but they also have 4 or 5 teams that are pretty bad.  Trading Maryland for Louisville after next year will make them even more powerful.  The AAC will be a decent conference next year but they will take a massive hit the year after when Louisville and Rutgers leave and they add East Carolina, Tulane, and Tulsa.  They will be a mid-major at that point.  I know the MWC is adding Utah St. and San Jose St. for football purposes but San Jose St. really hurts their basketball product.  They are truly awful.

B10 ACC P12 BE B12 AAC SEC MWC A10 MVC

.8172 .7707 .7628 .7592 .7019 .6914 .6804 .6607 .6400 .6321

[IL Warrior]

I'm not too concerned about the preseason rankings at this point. Regardless of how accurate (or inaccurate) preseason rankings have been in the past, any rankings out now are even less accurate, because the voters/analysts have to guess who is and is not entering the NBA draft this year, and who might or might not transfer. At least we know who will be on each team when the "real" preseason rankings come out.

Regarding comments about the strength of the Big East vs the AAC, I think that the Big East is a better overall conference, and I agree that the AAC will be extremely top-heavy. There are two things to keep in mind there:
1. Louisville is essentially a 1-year rental for the AAC, since they'll be moving to the ACC in 2014. That significantly hurts the AAC compared to the Big East past next year, but solidifies the ACC as a better basketball conference.
2. Everyone thinks Memphis will be able to contend in the AAC next year, but I have some serious doubts. They have a good program, but they've struggled against high-quality opponents. Their best wins last year were 85-80 at Tennessee and 54-52 vs Saint Mary's in the tournament, while they lost by 13 to VCU, 9 to Minnesota, and 22 to MSU on a neutral floor, 9 to Louisville at home, and 2 at Xavier. In 2011-12, they also had a poor record against NCAA tournament teams. I think they will learn that Louisville, UConn, Cincinnati, Rutgers, and USF are a lot better than SoMiss, UTEP, UAB, Marshall, and Rice.

Similar to point #2, I'm concerned about Creighton's ability to compete in the Big East for the same reasons. Butler, however, I believe is capable of competing in a power conference. Xavier will be competitive once they get out of the funk that they fell into this year.

[brewcity77]

I worry about Creighton long-term. Would be nice to have McDermott back another year to keep their brand up as they recruit new guys. They could fall middle of the pack really quickly.

If McDermott leaves, middle of the pack may be a tall order.

[The Equalizer]

I decided to go through the top 10 conferences, actually figure out who will be in what conference next year and average out this year's kenpom ratings.  That means Louisville and Rutgers are still in the AAC, Maryland is still in the ACC, etc.

A few observations as I was going through it:  The ACC really is turning into the Big East.  A lot of good to great teams but they also have 4 or 5 teams that are pretty bad.  Trading Maryland for Louisville after next year will make them even more powerful.  The AAC will be a decent conference next year but they will take a massive hit the year after when Louisville and Rutgers leave and they add East Carolina, Tulane, and Tulsa.  They will be a mid-major at that point.  I know the MWC is adding Utah St. and San Jose St. for football purposes but San Jose St. really hurts their basketball product.  They are truly awful.

B10 ACC P12 BE B12 AAC SEC MWC A10 MVC

.8172 .7707 .7628 .7592 .7019 .6914 .6804 .6607 .6400 .6321

Two observations:

First, you can't just "average out" this year's rankings with next year's teams.  I did the full analysis in an earlier post, but the jist of it was that the future Big East teams had a collective conference W/L record this year well over .500.  That won't happen next year--it will be exactly .500.  When this happens, it will cause an average decline of .0015 in each team's raw RPI, which equates to 5 to 7 spots in the ranking (Georgetown's 11th in RPI would fall to 16th or so).  

Second, Tulane's RPI and KenPom rankings were actually better than DePaul this year.

I would not be surprised to see the Big East and AAC close in the RPI and KenPom rankings, and the media picking up on a theme of "best conference past the Big 5"

[MU Buff]

Two observations:

First, you can't just "average out" this year's rankings with next year's teams.  I did the full analysis in an earlier post, but the jist of it was that the future Big East teams had a collective conference W/L record this year well over .500.  That won't happen next year--it will be exactly .500.  When this happens, it will cause an average decline of .0015 in each team's raw RPI, which equates to 5 to 7 spots in the ranking (Georgetown's 11th in RPI would fall to 16th or so).  

Second, Tulane's RPI and KenPom rankings were actually better than DePaul this year.

I would not be surprised to see the Big East and AAC close in the RPI and KenPom rankings, and the media picking up on a theme of "best conference past the Big 5"

On your first point, I agree.  I remember that analysis you did and thought it was well done.  I'm not saying this is exactly where the Big East will be next year.  I'm not smart enough to do all the statistical analysis factoring in the overall conference record will be .500, I just did it to give a general idea of how well the Big East would have performed this year.

I could see the AAC and BE being very close in the ratings next year, but the year after that they would need big improvements from their bottom teams.  Tulane was better than DePaul this year but that has nothing to do with it.  Tulane, Tulsa, and East Carolina are replacing Louisville and Rutgers.  That's who we should be comparing those teams to.  Let's just hope the Big East performs well enough the next couple years to make it the "Big 6" basketball conferences.

[SqueallyDRyan]

I disagree, Creighton will be good post McDermott.

[MarquetteDano]

Two observations:
I would not be surprised to see the Big East and AAC close in the RPI and KenPom rankings, and the media picking up on a theme of "best conference past the Big 5"

Are you saying that you believe the Big Ten, ACC, Big 12, PAC-12, and SEC will all be ranked ahead of the Big East next year in the RPI?

Care to  make it interesting?

[KenoshaWarrior]

The perception will be "Well those schools are private and dont have football so they are mid major"  that is what the easy perception will be for 80 percent of americans. 

But if you ask me a lot of badger fans always considered us Mid-Major so who cares we will just have to kick the snot out of them anyways