Another 2013-2014 Top 10 MUBB Prediction

[Henry Sugar]

From the smart Dan Hanner, who slots #mubb at #8. Sounds about right.

He's right that his model is probably over-rating the impact of the freshmen. However, his prediction of returning possessions is also too low if Otule returns. Finally, I think his model is probably under-rating the impact of McKay given Buzz's track record with JUCO players.

http://basketball.realgm.com/article/227109/2013-2014-Preseason-Top-25

[dgies9156]

OK, since no one is doing it yet, I'm ready to go out on a limb. Hey Brew, join me out here, OK???

I think Marquette has a legitimate shot at a national title next year!

That's right, I honestly do! I know that to do this, MU must prevail in a seven game tournament where, as we learned this year, strange bounces have a way of driving good teams crazy. Are you listening Georgetown, losing to a credit union (FGCU) and all.

Here's why:

1) We made the Elite 8 this year and I for one, don't think it was a fluke. We played great defense, learned to play within ourselves, tended to win close games and had good coaching and good on-the-floor leadership.

2) Our incoming class will correct some of the problems we had this year: re: long-range shooting. Plus, people forget that one of our recruits is a Juco who we expect should be able to step in and play close to high-level Division 1 basketball.

3) We're deeper than just about anyone out there.

4) Because of our Elite 8 showing, we ostensibly should be ranked in the Top 8. Several of our peers are dropping off due to graduation, and yes, I hate to admit it, but some will be better.

We have some weaknesses, no doubt, but the way college basketball is going, we're looking really good NOW!

[damuts222]

We have some weaknesses, no doubt, but the way college basketball is going, we're looking really good NOW!

  I agree with this sentiment whole heartedly.  The one and dones will not bring many basketball championships in my opinion.  Kentucky last year was a bit flukey, and they did have some upperclassmen leadership on that team.  Teams like MU that can get top 100 talent and develop them over the course of several years will prove its worth in the tourney in the coming years.  Thats why I'm excited for the New Big East and next year!

 

[klyrish]

OK, since no one is doing it yet, I'm ready to go out on a limb. Hey Brew, join me out here, OK???

I think Marquette has a legitimate shot at a national title next year!

That's right, I honestly do! I know that to do this, MU must prevail in a seven game tournament where, as we learned this year, strange bounces have a way of driving good teams crazy. Are you listening Georgetown, losing to a credit union (FGCU) and all.

Here's why:

1) We made the Elite 8 this year and I for one, don't think it was a fluke. We played great defense, learned to play within ourselves, tended to win close games and had good coaching and good on-the-floor leadership.

2) Our incoming class will correct some of the problems we had this year: re: long-range shooting. Plus, people forget that one of our recruits is a Juco who we expect should be able to step in and play close to high-level Division 1 basketball.

3) We're deeper than just about anyone out there.

4) Because of our Elite 8 showing, we ostensibly should be ranked in the Top 8. Several of our peers are dropping off due to graduation, and yes, I hate to admit it, but some will be better.

We have some weaknesses, no doubt, but the way college basketball is going, we're looking really good NOW!

The pessimist and seasoned Marquette fan/alumnus in me wants to say you're batsh1t crazy and there's no way, but honestly? I totally agree with you. I'm so excited for next season it's ridiculous. And it's gonna be a looooooong 7 months.

[Rockmic87]

I'm not going to be a prisoner of the moment with our success to the Elite Eight. I think this team has a tremendous amount of work to do and will need to figure out who will be our go to guys on offense (outside of Vander). Had we lost against Davidson in the first round, I don't think ppl would be thinking we had a legitimate shot at the National Championship next year.

I think we have the potential to be better and should be a top 20 team. However, I am going to have to see who will step up to help Vander during the games. There were a number of teams this year (i.e., UK and UNC), who did not play up to their potential and will be very good next year.

I expect MU to be a consistent top 20 team next year. I'd like to see Vander take that next step and put his name into the All-American conversation. I'd like to see MU have a deep tourney run. However, there are too many uncertainties that need to be answered for me, before I even think about a national title.

[Goose]

Rock

We have all been looking ahead about next year for quite some time. E8 or not this year meant little to be in regards in looking ahead. Expectations very high for the fella's next season and I love it.

[LloydMooresLegs]

I'm in for the ride.

This season was so much fun in large part because most of us did not have the same expectations as Brew (though I think Brew had a lot of fun, too).

The high expectations of the 2013-14 season will be a new challenge for Buzz and this team (and this board), but I'm confident that he will be able to figure out a way to turn MU into motivated underdogs.

[tower912]

Next year MAY be something special.   But......if the freshmen PG's aren't ready for prime time......if JJJ isn't a 3 pt bomber......if nobody else's 3 pt shooting improves......if Otule leaves....... MU will still be about where they were this year.   

[MUMonster03]

OK, since no one is doing it yet, I'm ready to go out on a limb. Hey Brew, join me out here, OK???

I think Marquette has a legitimate shot at a national title next year!

That's right, I honestly do! I know that to do this, MU must prevail in a seven game tournament where, as we learned this year, strange bounces have a way of driving good teams crazy. Are you listening Georgetown, losing to a credit union (FGCU) and all.

Here's why:

1) We made the Elite 8 this year and I for one, don't think it was a fluke. We played great defense, learned to play within ourselves, tended to win close games and had good coaching and good on-the-floor leadership.

2) Our incoming class will correct some of the problems we had this year: re: long-range shooting. Plus, people forget that one of our recruits is a Juco who we expect should be able to step in and play close to high-level Division 1 basketball.

3) We're deeper than just about anyone out there.

4) Because of our Elite 8 showing, we ostensibly should be ranked in the Top 8. Several of our peers are dropping off due to graduation, and yes, I hate to admit it, but some will be better.

We have some weaknesses, no doubt, but the way college basketball is going, we're looking really good NOW!

Does anyone else think that sometimes this was a disadvantage this year? It seemed at times that Buzz's quick, or whole line, substitutions didn't allow our players to get into the flow of the game. I am glad we are deep but I think some players may have been benefited by being in for a minute out for a minute.

[tower912]

I did not for a single nanosecond think our depth was a liability this year.    Our lack of 3 pt shooting was a liability.    Our depth, and Buzz's frequent substituting was a strength.   And ultimately, the cream rose to the top.   As the year progressed, Vander, JWilson, Junior, and Trent usually played 30-ish minutes, with a few exceptions.   DG and Otule made O/D switches and shared minutes about equally.   Heck, we had people screaming for more minutes for STjr, which would have required MORE subbing and less time for JWilson.   Buzz once again took a perceived weakness, the lack of established stars, and made it a virtue by playing lots of players.    Trust Buzz!

[warriorchick]

Dang it!  Everyone is finally on to us!

I, for one, truly enjoyed flying under the radar for the last five years.

[dgies9156]

Dang it!  Everyone is finally on to us!

I, for one, truly enjoyed flying under the radar for the last five years.

NOT ME!!!!!!

I much preferred the Al days, when we were the big bad wolf and everyone else was pulling for Red Riding Hood. Al routinely tried to talk sportswriters down from our lofty perch, to no avail.

Buzz, meet Al!

[Rockmic87]

NOT ME!!!!!!

I much preferred the Al days, when we were the big bad wolf and everyone else was pulling for Red Riding Hood. Al routinely tried to talk sportswriters down from our lofty perch, to no avail.

Buzz, meet Al!

Were definitely still under the radar outside of the Midwest.

[frozena pizza]

Does anyone else think that sometimes this was a disadvantage this year? It seemed at times that Buzz's quick, or whole line, substitutions didn't allow our players to get into the flow of the game. I am glad we are deep but I think some players may have been benefited by being in for a minute out for a minute.

That is the risk of relying on depth too much.  But I think it was an advantage to us this year.  It allowed us to keep guys fresh into the final minutes and no doubt contributed to the effectiveness of Otule and Gardner, since neither is particularly suited for major minutes.  It definitely helps when you have injuries or have to manage foul situations.

[Jay Bee]

From the smart Dan Hanner, who slots #mubb at #8. Sounds about right.

He's right that his model is probably over-rating the impact of the freshmen. However, his prediction of returning possessions is also too low if Otule returns. Finally, I think his model is probably under-rating the impact of McKay given Buzz's track record with JUCO players.

Models are too high level for me most of the time.

At a very high level, it looks like he's projecting a relatively small improvement in both (adjusted) offense and defense. I'm OK with that.

This is probably a question for Hanner and I haven't looked at last year's notes in a lot of detail, but a Pyth of .8945 wouldn't get MU to a top 10 ranking at the end of next year.. there must be some consistent underestimating of the adj off and/or adj def in the model, yes?

If so, that makes it more difficult to, for example, look at "adj off" being x.x higher next year and trying to rationalize it...

At any rate, there are a lot of odd / unique / interesting things to consider for almost any team when projecting a future year. A "better" answer is to look in great detail, but all the time in the world isn't available to everyone.  

Some random thoughts.. haven't thought about this at all, but let's try to come up with a few....

+ Davante at 53% minutes this season.. that could rise. His ORtg could be predicted to fall a fair amount but still be higher than those minutes he's replacing.
+/- Todd Mayo - wildcard city
+ Junior & Trent's offense.. turnovers shouldn't increase much (if at all, and they may decrease) with the minutes of their replacements, even if freshmen.
+ 3FG shooting - attempts and % could help next year - see Junior & Trent, along with just a really bad season.
- 3FG% defense.. 32.3% isn't great, but they could get stung worse next year.
+ Derrick Wilson/other PG minutes - not a tall order to improve ORtg... but impact muted somewhat due to small usage

OK.. I'll stop rambling - but,... #8 does sound reasonable knowing what we currently know.

[MUMonster03]

I did not for a single nanosecond think our depth was a liability this year.    Our lack of 3 pt shooting was a liability.    Our depth, and Buzz's frequent substituting was a strength.   And ultimately, the cream rose to the top.   As the year progressed, Vander, JWilson, Junior, and Trent usually played 30-ish minutes, with a few exceptions.   DG and Otule made O/D switches and shared minutes about equally.   Heck, we had people screaming for more minutes for STjr, which would have required MORE subbing and less time for JWilson.   Buzz once again took a perceived weakness, the lack of established stars, and made it a virtue by playing lots of players.    Trust Buzz!

I totally agree that the 3 was our biggest problem. If we can fix that I think Gardner and Otule, if he returns, have even bigger years since it would open the floor some since they would have to respect us from beyond the arc.

I think the depth works as long as everyone accepts their roles, which they did this year. The times I was thinking of that the substituting might have been a little much was when we had the scoring droughts several times this year, I know we were trying to find someone to make a basket but jut wondering if leaving a few guys in to get into the flow would have fixed. it. As another poster mentioned the subbing definitely helped keep Otule and Gardner fresh.

And trust me I do trust Buzz but never hurts to have a conversation.

[MUFlutieEffect]

Not a whole lot of love for the New Big East here.  MU, Georgetown, and (assuming McDermott returns) Creighton.  I'm thinking we need more than that to make a name for the conference from the outset.

[The Equalizer]

OK, since no one is doing it yet, I'm ready to go out on a limb. Hey Brew, join me out here, OK???

I think Marquette has a legitimate shot at a national title next year!

That's right, I honestly do! I know that to do this, MU must prevail in a seven game tournament where, as we learned this year, strange bounces have a way of driving good teams crazy. Are you listening Georgetown, losing to a credit union (FGCU) and all.

Here's why:

1) We made the Elite 8 this year and I for one, don't think it was a fluke. We played great defense, learned to play within ourselves, tended to win close games and had good coaching and good on-the-floor leadership.

2) Our incoming class will correct some of the problems we had this year: re: long-range shooting. Plus, people forget that one of our recruits is a Juco who we expect should be able to step in and play close to high-level Division 1 basketball.

3) We're deeper than just about anyone out there.

4) Because of our Elite 8 showing, we ostensibly should be ranked in the Top 8. Several of our peers are dropping off due to graduation, and yes, I hate to admit it, but some will be better.

We have some weaknesses, no doubt, but the way college basketball is going, we're looking really good NOW!

No. 

We'll should be in the top 10.  We may even make #1 rank.  We'll do it the way Xavier and Butler and Gonzaga have done so in the past.  Continuing to win while everyone else loses.

I'll say it again--if Porter leaves we will have enough talent to be 18-0.  If we pull it off, we'll be #1 ranked, because the dogfights in the ACC, Big Ten, B12, P12 and SEC will cause everyone else to take at least a couple of losses.

But we'll lack the elite-level players to be a contender for a championship.  We'll have a good seed, but we'll run into teams like Syracuse, Louisville, Michigan etc. in the Elite Eight.   It will take a miracle for us to win a championship.

[LloydMooresLegs]

But we'll lack the elite-level players to be a contender for a championship. 

I was listening yesterday to a Simmons/Klosterman pre-FF podcast, where they were mostly lamenting the clutch and grab style and quality of play in college this year (Simmons is all about the NBA).  About halfway through, Simmons said that something like "there are so few true athletes in the college game now who can just take it to the rim...like Trey Burke and Oladipo...and Blue from Marquette-I think he's one too...."

Interesting (and not surpirising given his performance) to see the increase in the praise of Blue.

[MUrugger]

A post earlier in this thread cautions, "if we had lost to Davidson...blah, blah, blah" people wouldn't be so high on the Warriors for next year...

That's the point: Without snatching victory from the clutches of defeat vs. Davidson, the testy victory over everyone's darling Butler and the did-you-see-that? win vs FF-touted Miami, the MU fan base doesn't have this level of enthusiasm.  Marquette got a lot better in it's last two weeks this year.

That alone brings value and excitement about what could lie ahead.  I'm staying on the wave, riding high and just gonna hang ten and let the Debbie Downers and pessimists sap all the energy they can from this ride.

Who's gonna have more fun?  The BUUUUUUUZZZZZZZZ Train!!!  Chooo-Choooo!!   

[brewcity77]

But we'll lack the elite-level players to be a contender for a championship.  We'll have a good seed, but we'll run into teams like Syracuse, Louisville, Michigan etc. in the Elite Eight.   It will take a miracle for us to win a championship.

I disagree. Vander Blue is already a star, and if he develops any more in the next year, say becoming a 35% shooter from 3 while just slightly improving his already exemplary defense and driving ability, he can be an All-American. Jamil Wilson started to tap into the talent so many saw and he became remarkably consistent. And perhaps even more important, we may have the best inside game Marquette has ever had with Gardner, Otule, and McKay.

I realize Blue may never be a superstar in the NBA, Gardner may never even play there, but they can both be absolutely dominant at this level, and certainly good enough to cut down the nets. It won't be easy, and I wouldn't make us the favorite, but I don't think there will be more than 4-5 teams in the country that I feel should have shorter odds than us.

[The Equalizer]

I disagree. Vander Blue is already a star, and if he develops any more in the next year, say becoming a 35% shooter from 3 while just slightly improving his already exemplary defense and driving ability, he can be an All-American. Jamil Wilson started to tap into the talent so many saw and he became remarkably consistent. And perhaps even more important, we may have the best inside game Marquette has ever had with Gardner, Otule, and McKay.

I realize Blue may never be a superstar in the NBA, Gardner may never even play there, but they can both be absolutely dominant at this level, and certainly good enough to cut down the nets. It won't be easy, and I wouldn't make us the favorite, but I don't think there will be more than 4-5 teams in the country that I feel should have shorter odds than us.

As good as Blue and Wilson were at the end of the season, down the stretch we were only marginally better than Rutgers, St. Johns, Davidson & Butler, and we were exposed by Notre Dame, and Syracuse.  Our only truly impressive win was against Miami, and that came when they were without their best inside player (I know its unpopular around here to point that out--but when trying to figure out a realistic starting point for next year, I think one has to take that into consideration).
 
I think we're going to a strong team--certainly the strongest in the Big East.  But I don't see us as a dominating tournament type team. 

[bobnoxious]

I disagree. Vander Blue is already a star, and if he develops any more in the next year, say becoming a 35% shooter from 3 while just slightly improving his already exemplary defense and driving ability, he can be an All-American. Jamil Wilson started to tap into the talent so many saw and he became remarkably consistent. And perhaps even more important, we may have the best inside game Marquette has ever had with Gardner, Otule, and McKay.

I realize Blue may never be a superstar in the NBA, Gardner may never even play there, but they can both be absolutely dominant at this level, and certainly good enough to cut down the nets. It won't be easy, and I wouldn't make us the favorite, but I don't think there will be more than 4-5 teams in the country that I feel should have shorter odds than us.

I am on board with whatever prediction(s) you have for next year seeing as you were spot on this year

[Jay Bee]

This is probably a question for Hanner and I haven't looked at last year's notes in a lot of detail, but a Pyth of .8945 wouldn't get MU to a top 10 ranking at the end of next year.. there must be some consistent underestimating of the adj off and/or adj def in the model, yes?

If so, that makes it more difficult to, for example, look at "adj off" being x.x higher next year and trying to rationalize it...

Indeed, there was a major error in the coding. The author says he's now corrected it for the post NBA entry deadline version.

From Hanner --
"I had to correct one major error. My code included several “if 2013” statements to project the 2013 season. And I had to change them to “if 2014” to project the 2014 season. In my rush to get this done on Final Four weekend, I missed one line of code where I multiply each returning player by a standard player development factor. This impacts every team and essentially didn’t change the rankings, but it does explain why the offensive projections are higher here than they were a month ago. I apologize for any confusion."

[Rudy]

No proven point guard. No proven 2 guard. No proven outside shooting. Loss of great glue guy (Lockett) and clutch player (Vander). Let's not get ahead of ourselves here. We could be pretty good and may even be really good by the end of the year. Too many parts have to fall in place for me to think we are going to be as good as this year. We are still pretty deep.