Big East Next Year

[ResidentBrown]

According some preliminary rankings, we'll have around 6 NCAA tourney caliber teams next year in the Big East: GTown, Us, Nova, St. John's, Creighton and Butler. I think Providence is being overlooked. They return everyone but Council from a team that was on the outer fringe of the tourney. St. John's could be the surprise team next year. They are returning everyone from a very young team. Anyone know how Xavier stacks up next year? Are they still in rebuilding mode?

Like how I expect most years to look in the future of the Big East, our conference won't be very top heavy, with 1-2 "elite" (top 15) teams. But we will have very robust competition among teams 3 through 8.

My very early predicted standings:

Marquette
Georgetown
St. John's
Villanova
Butler
Creighton
Providence
Xavier
DePaul
Seton Hall

(I know it's super early to make predictions, with all of the potential variables of the off-season, but it's at least fun to think about it)

[tominsalem]

As a St. John's fan, I'd put Providence about 3rd.
Lebo can ball and Cooley can coach.



Need to add VCU to the conference.

[MarquetteDano]

I have a feeling we only get five teams in next year.  Yes the selection committee does not give a number for each conference but with only ten teams, the sixth best team would basically have to be undefeated (maybe one loss) in the non-con to get in as they would have a .500 or worse record in conference.

My very early guess is we get five bids next year.  I really hope St. John's/Providence makes the leap because the new conference really needs to do well in the non-con and March to make a splash.

[RushmoreAcademy]

Non-con going to be HUGE to get this conference off on a good foot.
We'll have the potential to play Creighton 4 times next year, considering twice in conf play, and we'll be in two tournaments with them.

[The Equalizer]

According some preliminary rankings, we'll have around 6 NCAA tourney caliber teams next year in the Big East: GTown, Us, Nova, St. John's, Creighton and Butler. I think Providence is being overlooked. They return everyone but Council from a team that was on the outer fringe of the tourney. St. John's could be the surprise team next year. They are returning everyone from a very young team. Anyone know how Xavier stacks up next year? Are they still in rebuilding mode?

My very early predicted standings:

Marquette
Georgetown
St. John's
Villanova
Creighton
Butler
Providence
Xavier
DePaul
Seton Hall

(I know it's super early to make predictions, with all of the potential variables of the off-season, but it's at least fun to think about it)

Six bids is overly optimisitic.

People are generally overlooking several factors:

1. Collectively, there were be a big swing in conference w/l records. If you add up conference records of the 10 Big East teams next year, they tallied a collective 93-73 record.  With mathematical certainty, this will be .500 next season.  

Assuming conference amounts to 2/3 of the season, an average conference record decline of .0600 is an overall average decline of .0400--assuming non-coneference records stay the same.  Factored at .25% of each team's RPI, that's .0133 off the RPI number--that may not sound like much, but it would drop our RPI rank from 12th to 17th.


2.  The upward contribution to RPI from Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame & Louisville is weaker than Butler, Xavier & Creighton.  

3.  There will be one less at-large bid available next year.  

4.  Other conferences will be more competitive. The ACC will get the benefit of adding UL, Syraucse, Notre Dame and Pitt, which will lift the entire conference. Teams like 11-7 Virginia and 9-9 Florida State will see their RPI elevated.

5.  The A10 and MVC aren't going to fold up and disappear, either. There's nothing structural that would prevent a Ricmond, UMass or Wichita State from assuing the same role that Butler, Xavier or Creighton have had in those conferences over the past several years.  

5.  People underestimate the remains of the old Big East. Memphis, Temple, UConn and Cincy all have a strong chance at making the NCAA tournament next year.  

[Coleman]

Is Butler really supposed to fall off that much next year? They were very competitive this year and my thought would be that they would be in the top 3-4 teams in the conference, but you have them as 6th. Just curious

Sounds strange but the success of this league is going to come to the teams in the middle to bottom. Teams like Providence, St. John's and Creighton. Most mid-major conferences have 1-2 solid tourney teams every year (see WCC). What separates major conferences from mid-majors is strength in the middle and bottom.

Xavier also needs to return to its form of the past decade and be a consistent tournament team.

If we can annually rely on Xavier, Nova, Butler and Creighton to be solid tourny teams, with St. Johns and Providence teams with occasional good years, MU and G-town as annual top 25 powers, the conference will be fine.

6 bids is probably impossible, until we expand to 12. Adding Dayton and SLU would allow one more team on top to be over .500 and make the NCAA. This is why I think it will eventually need to happen, and why I think it will be Dayton over VCU. We need another DePaul-type bottom-feeder to get more teams over .500.

[Farley36]

As a St. John's fan, I'd put Providence about 3rd.
Lebo can ball and Cooley can coach.



Need to add VCU to the conference.

I have come around to believing this also.  I was initially opposed but with Shaka staying and their continued success I think it is worth the risk.  Get them in the Big East and even if Shaka leaves they likely can get the program to the point where they can continue their success.  Also gives good east west balance for Olympic sports if we add VCU and St. Louis.  My only reservation is that they might make the move to add football at which case they very well could leave but I think the whole process to add it and then get in as a full member of another conference is a 5-10 year process.  That's far enough out that I think it's still beneficial to add them.  The most important years for this conference will be the first 3 or 4 and in the short term when we need to build excitement and a reputation for great ball, they are a great addition.

[T-Bone]

It looks like Xavier had a deep 2012 recruiting class.

http://espn.go.com/colleges/basketball/recruiting/school/_/id/2752/class/2012

Lots of youth there.  They'll be better than they were last year - which wasn't approaching DePaul.

I think the DePaul/Seton Hall cellar will continue, but really anyone else could win the league.

[tominsalem]

I have come around to believing this also.  I was initially opposed but with Shaka staying and their continued success I think it is worth the risk.  Get them in the Big East and even if Shaka leaves they likely can get the program to the point where they can continue their success.  Also gives good east west balance for Olympic sports if we add VCU and St. Louis.  My only reservation is that they might make the move to add football at which case they very well could leave but I think the whole process to add it and then get in as a full member of another conference is a 5-10 year process.  That's far enough out that I think it's still beneficial to add them.  The most important years for this conference will be the first 3 or 4 and in the short term when we need to build excitement and a reputation for great ball, they are a great addition.

At the chance that VCU were to add football, what conference would want them?
Certainly none with BCS ties.
Well worth the invitation.
Creighton is the one that makes me cringe.

[Farley36]

At the chance that VCU were to add football, what conference would want them?
Certainly none with BCS ties.
Well worth the invitation.
Creighton is the one that makes me cringe.

I guess we'll have to disagree on Creighton.  I think they were a fantastic addition to the league.  They have been successful year in and year out and they have a rabid fan base.

[ResidentBrown]

At the chance that VCU were to add football, what conference would want them?
Certainly none with BCS ties.
Well worth the invitation.
Creighton is the one that makes me cringe.

Why does Creighton make you cringe? Although they are somewhat of a geographic outlier, their university fits really well into the cultural make-up of the rest of the conference (medium-sized private school in a large(ish) city), and they have sustained success, with no chance of adding football. I am personally ecstatic that this conference will be maintaining somewhat of a shared identity among all of its schools, a factor that has been thrown under the bus by the other major conferences.

Also, I agree with your post about Providence. I only rated them somewhat low because of the depth of talent in the conference next year - not for a lack of talent. They will not be a bottom dweller for sure, nor an automatic win on anyone's schedule.

I am jumping on the Johnnies train though. Jakarr Sampson has 1st Team All Big East talent. If Obekpa can form an offensive game facing the hoop he also has potential to be a star. As a freshman, he already is having an Otule-like impact on the Johnnies. Hopefully Harrison can get his crap together. He's a major talent. Add in God'sgift and Sanchez - watch out!

As for Butler - I don't see them being bad next year, but Rotnei Clark and Andrew Smith being gone will hurt. Can Roosevelt Jones step up and be the go to guy? He's really undersized for the forward position, but has the motor and athleticism to be an impact player. I also see Kellen Dunham breaking out as their main perimeter shooting threat. He won't be a Rotnei Clark, but he could pick up a bit of the slack. Butler will also miss Andrew Smith a lot, because they have no returning guys who played significant minutes last year over 6'9" - however they do have several talented players in the 6'6" - 6'9" range.

[Golden Avalanche]

Johnnies are biggest wildcard. Early smoke is Sampson returning and Harrison making amends. Add in God's Gift off redshirt along with Sanchez eligible for his one season and Lavin could have himself quite a collection in Jamaica.

Of course, Sampson could be swayed and Harrison could still be a knucklehead as well as Sanchez being overhyped and God's Gift still being limited so it could be just like February/March was this season.

Talk about a roller-coaster. 

[Aughnanure]

Need to add VCU to the conference.

Now we don't. You will never "need" to add the 4th best public school in a state.

[ResidentBrown]

No we don't.

Agree. No public schools. We can thrive without them.

[Aughnanure]

Six bids is overly optimisitic.

People are generally overlooking several factors:

1. Collectively, there were be a big swing in conference w/l records. If you add up conference records of the 10 Big East teams next year, they tallied a collective 93-73 record.  With mathematical certainty, this will be .500 next season.  

Assuming conference amounts to 2/3 of the season, an average conference record decline of .0600 is an overall average decline of .0400--assuming non-coneference records stay the same.  Factored at .25% of each team's RPI, that's .0133 off the RPI number--that may not sound like much, but it would drop our RPI rank from 12th to 17th.


2.  The upward contribution to RPI from Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame & Louisville is weaker than Butler, Xavier & Creighton.  

3.  There will be one less at-large bid available next year.  

4.  Other conferences will be more competitive. The ACC will get the benefit of adding UL, Syraucse, Notre Dame and Pitt, which will lift the entire conference. Teams like 11-7 Virginia and 9-9 Florida State will see their RPI elevated.

5.  The A10 and MVC aren't going to fold up and disappear, either. There's nothing structural that would prevent a Ricmond, UMass or Wichita State from assuing the same role that Butler, Xavier or Creighton have had in those conferences over the past several years.  

5.  People underestimate the remains of the old Big East. Memphis, Temple, UConn and Cincy all have a strong chance at making the NCAA tournament next year.  

I mainly agree with your concerns. But on #5, you have to take the counter argument that their RPI will seriously suffer. Sure, they will have a winner of that conference who will be respected (ala Memphis) but I don't see the MVC getting more than 1 bid and the A10 getting more than 2.

When does UMass leave the A10?

[ResidentBrown]

It looks like Xavier had a deep 2012 recruiting class.

http://espn.go.com/colleges/basketball/recruiting/school/_/id/2752/class/2012

Lots of youth there.  They'll be better than they were last year - which wasn't approaching DePaul.

I think the DePaul/Seton Hall cellar will continue, but really anyone else could win the league.

I don't think they were approaching DePaul. I think there will be a significant drop-off between the top eight and the bottom two. Way I see it, someone has to be number eight in the conference, and I think Xavier is the best candidate this year.

[tominsalem]

Now we don't. You will never "need" to add the 4th best public school in a state.

2nd best basketball school in the state.

[Aughnanure]

2nd best basketball school in the state.

Right now. This season. Today.

Most popular and the most potential? NO. This isn't UConn we would be adding (aka, the flagship state university of Conn).

[Coleman]

I don't think they were approaching DePaul. I think there will be a significant drop-off between the top eight and the bottom two. Way I see it, someone has to be number eight in the conference, and I think Xavier is the best candidate this year.

This is why we need Dayton. It sounds ridiculous but we need some teams at bottom to give the Xaviers and Creightons a legitimate chance at the NCAA tournament, and our conference a chance at getting 6 bids.

Do you think the A-10 gets as many teams in this year without Fordham, Duquesne and Dayton in the conference? Take out those 3 teams, La Salle doesn't make the tournament and their Sweet 16 run never happens.

[brewcity77]

My picks...

1) Marquette: Returning almost everyone plus a great recruiting class should make us prohibitive favorites.
2) Georgetown: Porter will probably go NBA, but Whittington should be back in Porter's role, and everyone else returns.
3) Providence: Henton, Batts, and Cotton are all back; if Dunn or Ledo can replace Council, they will be good.
4) St. John's: Will Harrison be back? Even if not, a front line of Obekpa, Achiuwa, and Sampson will be damn good.
5) Butler: Jones is a star, Dunham is a Clarke clone (though less douchey looking), and I have faith in Stevens.
6) Villanova: Losing Yarou and Sutton will put a big load on Ochefu, but everyone else returns from a NCAA team.
7) DePaul: Tons of upperclassmen, wary to say it, but behind Melvin and Young they challenge for a postseason bid.
8) Xavier: Christon is a stud, the rest of the team is not. Still 1-2 years away from returning to the old Xavier.
9) Seton Hall: Edwin as a one-man team didn't work this year, why would it be any better next?
10) Creighton: Assuming McDermott declares, their top returning scorer is Ethan Wragge. That's not a good thing.

As far as bids, I think we will get 3 at the minimum. Marquette, GT, and Providence should all comfortably make the tournament. I think we have a good shot to get 5 or even 6, but it will come down heavily to how well teams do in the non-con. If St. John's, Butler, Villanova, and DePaul can all play a moderately strong (at least top-100) non-con schedule and get 10+ wins, while burying the bottom few teams, they can contend. I don't think there's any way we'll see 7 bids, and 6 would probably require someone unexpected to make a deep MSG run.

Two teams that interest me are DePaul and Creighton. I know people will probably scoff at DePaul, but Oliver Purnell had a losing aggregate record through three years at both Dayton and Clemson before posting 20-win seasons in his fourth year and taking both teams to the NIT. Melvin and Young are both excellent players and I'm a big fan of Billy Garrett and feel he can have an immediate impact. I think the NIT is the floor for them, and could see a top-half finish and sitting on the bubble come Selection Sunday. If Creighton returns McDermott, I'd probably move them up to 5th, he's that much of a difference maker. It seems like going into the draft this year in a thin class should be a no-brainer. He showed very little improvement from his sophomore to junior year, so scouts may shy away if he's a year older and the same player. The Jays should be a solid addition in the long run, but I think the first year will be a very tough adjustment for a team that loses a lot.

[ResidentBrown]

My picks...

1) Marquette: Returning almost everyone plus a great recruiting class should make us prohibitive favorites.
2) Georgetown: Porter will probably go NBA, but Whittington should be back in Porter's role, and everyone else returns.
3) Providence: Henton, Batts, and Cotton are all back; if Dunn or Ledo can replace Council, they will be good.
4) St. John's: Will Harrison be back? Even if not, a front line of Obekpa, Achiuwa, and Sampson will be damn good.
5) Butler: Jones is a star, Dunham is a Clarke clone (though less douchey looking), and I have faith in Stevens.
6) Villanova: Losing Yarou and Sutton will put a big load on Ochefu, but everyone else returns from a NCAA team.
7) DePaul: Tons of upperclassmen, wary to say it, but behind Melvin and Young they challenge for a postseason bid.
8) Xavier: Christon is a stud, the rest of the team is not. Still 1-2 years away from returning to the old Xavier.
9) Seton Hall: Edwin as a one-man team didn't work this year, why would it be any better next?
10) Creighton: Assuming McDermott declares, their top returning scorer is Ethan Wragge. That's not a good thing.

As far as bids, I think we will get 3 at the minimum. Marquette, GT, and Providence should all comfortably make the tournament. I think we have a good shot to get 5 or even 6, but it will come down heavily to how well teams do in the non-con. If St. John's, Butler, Villanova, and DePaul can all play a moderately strong (at least top-100) non-con schedule and get 10+ wins, while burying the bottom few teams, they can contend. I don't think there's any way we'll see 7 bids, and 6 would probably require someone unexpected to make a deep MSG run.

Two teams that interest me are DePaul and Creighton. I know people will probably scoff at DePaul, but Oliver Purnell had a losing aggregate record through three years at both Dayton and Clemson before posting 20-win seasons in his fourth year and taking both teams to the NIT. Melvin and Young are both excellent players and I'm a big fan of Billy Garrett and feel he can have an immediate impact. I think the NIT is the floor for them, and could see a top-half finish and sitting on the bubble come Selection Sunday. If Creighton returns McDermott, I'd probably move them up to 5th, he's that much of a difference maker. It seems like going into the draft this year in a thin class should be a no-brainer. He showed very little improvement from his sophomore to junior year, so scouts may shy away if he's a year older and the same player. The Jays should be a solid addition in the long run, but I think the first year will be a very tough adjustment for a team that loses a lot.

I see McDermott coming back. I haven't seen him anywhere near the first round on any draft predictions, and his dad is the head coach, which has to count for a great deal of something.

[brewcity77]

I see McDermott coming back. I haven't seen him anywhere near the first round on any draft predictions, and his dad is the head coach, which has to count for a great deal of something.

I agree that he won't be first round, which is all the more reason he should come out. This year, he'll get drafted. Next year, as a 22-year-old senior that has been plateauing for 3 years, even an All-American season could see him go undrafted ala Scottie Reynolds.

[drewm88]

At this point, I think everyone but Seton Hall has a chance to get an NCAA bid next year. That won't happen, as we won't get 9 bids, but everyone's got a shot.

DePaul, PC, and St. John's are all trending up. Xavier should bounce back. Creighton will be a threat if Doug McD returns, but I don't think he will.

On the other hand, us and Villanova are the only ones I'd be shocked to see miss the NCAA's. I'll withhold that sentiment from Georgetown until I see them play without Porter, assuming he's gone.

Predictions:
1. MU
2. Villanova
3. Georgetown (assuming no Porter)
4. Providence
5. DePaul (if not next year, then when?)
6. St. John's
7. Xavier
8. Butler
9. Creighton (assuming no McDermott)
10. Seton Hall

[muwarrior69]

My picks...

1) Marquette: Returning almost everyone plus a great recruiting class should make us prohibitive favorites.
2) Georgetown: Porter will probably go NBA, but Whittington should be back in Porter's role, and everyone else returns.
3) Providence: Henton, Batts, and Cotton are all back; if Dunn or Ledo can replace Council, they will be good.
4) St. John's: Will Harrison be back? Even if not, a front line of Obekpa, Achiuwa, and Sampson will be damn good.
5) Butler: Jones is a star, Dunham is a Clarke clone (though less douchey looking), and I have faith in Stevens.
6) Villanova: Losing Yarou and Sutton will put a big load on Ochefu, but everyone else returns from a NCAA team.
7) DePaul: Tons of upperclassmen, wary to say it, but behind Melvin and Young they challenge for a postseason bid.
8) Xavier: Christon is a stud, the rest of the team is not. Still 1-2 years away from returning to the old Xavier.
9) Seton Hall: Edwin as a one-man team didn't work this year, why would it be any better next?
10) Creighton: Assuming McDermott declares, their top returning scorer is Ethan Wragge. That's not a good thing.

As far as bids, I think we will get 3 at the minimum. Marquette, GT, and Providence should all comfortably make the tournament. I think we have a good shot to get 5 or even 6, but it will come down heavily to how well teams do in the non-con. If St. John's, Butler, Villanova, and DePaul can all play a moderately strong (at least top-100) non-con schedule and get 10+ wins, while burying the bottom few teams, they can contend. I don't think there's any way we'll see 7 bids, and 6 would probably require someone unexpected to make a deep MSG run.

Two teams that interest me are DePaul and Creighton. I know people will probably scoff at DePaul, but Oliver Purnell had a losing aggregate record through three years at both Dayton and Clemson before posting 20-win seasons in his fourth year and taking both teams to the NIT. Melvin and Young are both excellent players and I'm a big fan of Billy Garrett and feel he can have an immediate impact. I think the NIT is the floor for them, and could see a top-half finish and sitting on the bubble come Selection Sunday. If Creighton returns McDermott, I'd probably move them up to 5th, he's that much of a difference maker. It seems like going into the draft this year in a thin class should be a no-brainer. He showed very little improvement from his sophomore to junior year, so scouts may shy away if he's a year older and the same player. The Jays should be a solid addition in the long run, but I think the first year will be a very tough adjustment for a team that loses a lot.

I know we have a good recruiting class comming in, but I recall the folks who follow Butler believe their recruits coming in will make them competitive next year as well. Nova and Gtown always recruit well too. So its not just who is returning but who is coming in as well.

[Clam Crowder]

I think McDermott will be back for Creighton, I don't see Depaul being a threat even with their upperclassmen...I just can't get past their being DePaul lol. Nova will be solid, Butler will be solid as always, SJU will lose Harrison I believe but that front line is frightening. If Ledo doesn't declare, and Dunn takes a jump forward PC will be very very good. I honestly feel that they will be better than Gtown with Dunn, Ledo, Cotton, and Batts all returning for them as well as having a handful of high recruits and high profile transfers that will now be ready to play.

1) Marquette-Only worry I have is at PG, no I didn't like Jr. but he clearly led the offense better than D-Wil IMO
2) Providence-Desrosiers, Tyler Harris, Ledo, a high profile recruit, Cotton, and Batts with Cooley at the helm will be a tough team with alot of talent
3)Gtown-returning good pieces from a very good team
4) Creighton- With McDermott back they will be a very good team with one of the top scorers in the country, if he leaves they could be 10th
5) Nova-Arcidiacano and the boys will be good
6) SJU-could be even better but if Harrison leaves I see them around here with that front line
7) Butler-I am not sure they can overcome the loss of Rotnei easily, Brad will prove me wrong
8) DePaul-could be way higher with Melvin and Young, but they are DePaul so I keep them here
9) Xavier-rebuilding mode
10) Seton Hall-just not enough talent