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Author Topic: An N.C. resident's scouting report  (Read 9424 times)

MU82

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An N.C. resident's scouting report
« on: March 17, 2013, 07:47:42 PM »
I live in the Charlotte area and have seen Davidson a lot. Here's my scouting report.

Strengths:

Very experienced. Well coached. Brooks is a 6-7 forward who is very good on the low post; plays bigger than his size and is very tough and skilled; lots of people think he's an NBA player. Cohen is a 6-10 inside-outside threat who definitely will get a long look from NBA. They have several good to very good 3-point shooters, including Cohen, who likely will take MU center outside often. They have nice size at every position, even guard. They make their FTs.

Weaknesses:

Not unathletic but not super athletic, either -- kind of like a teamful of Locketts. When they hit 3s they are a threat against anybody but they have long cold stretches and they definitely need to make 3s to beat top opponents. They do not put much pressure on the ball and really aren't a great defensive team at all. As talented as Brooks and Cohen are, they disappear sometimes in games -- or at least can be taken out of games by good defensive teams.

My take:

Marquette is the only team I've seen more than Davidson this season, so I have a pretty good feel for both. With our guys being 3 seeds, I'm not thrilled that we have to play such an experienced team that has such a huge edge on us in 3-point shooting and that will not be the least bit intimidated by us. Yes, they have a few bad losses, but they also played Duke, New Mexico and Gonzaga well. (Tied with Duke at halftime; tied with Zags well into 2H; tied with NM until final minutes.)

If I weren't a Marquette fan, I'd be tempted to pick this as one of my first-round upsets. I think we'll be able to run on them and wear them down with our bigs, and I think both Junior and Vander should be able to get to the rim. If we take care of the ball and defend 3s reasonably well, we can win by double-digits. But very few things have gone ideally for the Warriors this season, so I think this will be closer than it has to be.

Marquette 81, Davidson 74.
"We need journalists who are on the side of victims, on the side of those who are persecuted, excluded, thrown away and discriminated against ... situations of suffering that often are in the dark, or have light shining for a moment only to return to the darkness of indifference."

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Golden Avalanche

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Re: An N.C. resident's scouting report
« Reply #1 on: March 17, 2013, 07:52:36 PM »
Excellent report added to the mostly inane discussion this evening. Sounds like a team we've seen a bit these last few seasons in the NCAA Tournament and fared well against even with the nerves prior to tipoff.

One question I have is do you see Marquette scoring well even though they've struggled to reach 70 for the last six weeks and have been plagued by poor starts that often result in 25 point or less halves?

LloydMooresLegs

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Re: An N.C. resident's scouting report
« Reply #2 on: March 17, 2013, 08:00:45 PM »
I live in the Charlotte area and have seen Davidson a lot. Here's my scouting report:
My take:

Marquette is the only team I've seen more than Davidson this season, so I have a pretty good feel for both. With our guys being 3 seeds, I'm not thrilled that we have to play such an experienced team that has such a huge edge on us in 3-point shooting and that will not be the least bit intimidated by us. Yes, they have a few bad losses, but they also played Duke, New Mexico and Gonzaga well. (Tied with Duke at halftime; tied with Zags well into 2H; tied with NM until final minutes.)


Marquette 81, Davidson 74.

Let's remember this when we are in half time game thread panic mode.

GGGG

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Re: An N.C. resident's scouting report
« Reply #3 on: March 17, 2013, 08:07:25 PM »
Honestly think we can score 81 on them?

Groin_pull

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Re: An N.C. resident's scouting report
« Reply #4 on: March 17, 2013, 08:19:41 PM »
Jeeez, is there a single team in the entire tournament that people here would be happy to face?

Every year, I'm amazed at how nervous and freaked out everyone gets.

ChicosBailBonds

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Re: An N.C. resident's scouting report
« Reply #5 on: March 17, 2013, 08:34:16 PM »
Jeeez, is there a single team in the entire tournament that people here would be happy to face?

Every year, I'm amazed at how nervous and freaked out everyone gets.

Indiana

LloydMooresLegs

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Re: An N.C. resident's scouting report
« Reply #6 on: March 17, 2013, 08:35:31 PM »
Ok, now that's funny!

Uncle Soaky

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Re: An N.C. resident's scouting report
« Reply #7 on: March 17, 2013, 08:37:21 PM »
Thanks for the thorough scouting report!

YoungMUFan4

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Re: An N.C. resident's scouting report
« Reply #8 on: March 17, 2013, 08:46:13 PM »
Honestly think we can score 81 on them?

They're 103rd in defensive eff per Pomeroy (SHU/USF range)


jsglow

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Re: An N.C. resident's scouting report
« Reply #9 on: March 17, 2013, 08:59:10 PM »
Thanks MU82.  Be interesting when they face another Top 25 program in MU.  Not saying that their early games against the likes of Duke and Gonzaga aren't interesting but certainly those teams were considering them to be buy game cupcake material.  I suppose it is like playing a solid Norfolk State team last year in our pre-season tourney.  Like always, we simply need to be ready.

MU82

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Re: An N.C. resident's scouting report
« Reply #10 on: March 17, 2013, 09:06:19 PM »
Honestly think we can score 81 on them?

Davidson normally is not a slow-it-down team. They are willing and able to shoot early 3s, and Brooks will attack the rim. I think we will have some run-outs against them and I think that if we are feeding the post well Davante can get a good share of FTs. I don't love our defensive matchups against them because we often lose 3-point shooters and we sometimes get lazy on the defensive boards, but I really like our offense against their D. If Junior takes care of the ball and attacks, and if Vander is in control, hitting his midrange jumper and taking it to the hole (as he has for most of the season), Davidson will have a very hard time defending them, not to mention Gardner and Jamil.
"We need journalists who are on the side of victims, on the side of those who are persecuted, excluded, thrown away and discriminated against ... situations of suffering that often are in the dark, or have light shining for a moment only to return to the darkness of indifference."

-- Pope Francis

rocky_warrior

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Re: An N.C. resident's scouting report
« Reply #11 on: March 17, 2013, 09:07:22 PM »
They do not put much pressure on the ball and really aren't a great defensive team at all.

Thanks for the report, and this comforts me a lot.  We might give up too many 3s to them (making it closer than we as fans would like), but we're a pretty tough team to stop too.  

They're 103rd in defensive eff per Pomeroy (SHU/USF range)

And similarly, we pounded SHU & USF on the road, but Davidson is a better offensive team, so I expect a good game, but a win.

Stronghold

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Re: An N.C. resident's scouting report
« Reply #12 on: March 17, 2013, 09:17:46 PM »
Jeeez, is there a single team in the entire tournament that people here would be happy to face?

Every year, I'm amazed at how nervous and freaked out everyone gets.

I tend to do the same thing as you think about the game more and more.  Then I remember that we are a 3 seed for a reason and won a share of the Big East.  A team like Davidson shouldn't worry us. 

MU82

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Re: An N.C. resident's scouting report
« Reply #13 on: March 17, 2013, 09:24:39 PM »
I tend to do the same thing as you think about the game more and more.  Then I remember that we are a 3 seed for a reason and won a share of the Big East.  A team like Davidson shouldn't worry us. 

And a team like Holy Cross shouldn't have worried a decidedly superior 2003 Marquette team that also was a 3 seed for a reason.

I believe we'll win, but Davidson is better than most 14s most years.
"We need journalists who are on the side of victims, on the side of those who are persecuted, excluded, thrown away and discriminated against ... situations of suffering that often are in the dark, or have light shining for a moment only to return to the darkness of indifference."

-- Pope Francis

MUMountin

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Re: An N.C. resident's scouting report
« Reply #14 on: March 17, 2013, 09:26:01 PM »
Davidson normally is not a slow-it-down team.

It looks like tempo-wise, they (65.2 possessions/40m, #205) are about the same as us (64.9/40, #217), per KenPom. 

But, our offensive efficiency (113.4 per 100 possessions, #17) and defensive efficiency (93.3, #50) are much better than theirs (AdjO:110.4, #40/AdjD: 96.8, #110).

tower912

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Re: An N.C. resident's scouting report
« Reply #15 on: March 17, 2013, 09:26:22 PM »
Zone them, attack their 3 pt shooters.  
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

GGGG

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Re: An N.C. resident's scouting report
« Reply #16 on: March 17, 2013, 09:31:52 PM »
There was a lot of similar worry about BYU...older team, shoots threes...then we simply overwhelmed them with athleticism.  They haven't played much against players like MU has.  I think this will be close for awhile but we will pull away in the second half and win by about 12-15.

MUMountin

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Re: An N.C. resident's scouting report
« Reply #17 on: March 17, 2013, 09:40:45 PM »
I really like our offense against their D. If Junior takes care of the ball and attacks, and if Vander is in control, hitting his midrange jumper and taking it to the hole (as he has for most of the season), Davidson will have a very hard time defending them, not to mention Gardner and Jamil.

According to ESPN's Bracket Projection, it sounds like (1) they don't have much depth in the frontcourt and (2) they primarily play man-to-man defense.  If that's the case, sounds like we might be able to attack the paint and if we can draw some fouls on their bigs (Cohen and Brooks), we might be able to neutralize their top scorers.  Is that about right?

There's also these from ESPN:

Quote
How you beat them: The Wildcats can fall victim to size in the post and quickness at guard.

Quote
Bad stat: Turnover percentage D
Davidson doesn't force a high rate of turnovers, ranking in the bottom half of the nation in this category. For a team looking to pull an upset, that could prove to be problematic.

These both seem to play into our hands.

MU82

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Re: An N.C. resident's scouting report
« Reply #18 on: March 17, 2013, 09:52:56 PM »
According to ESPN's Bracket Projection, it sounds like (1) they don't have much depth in the frontcourt and (2) they primarily play man-to-man defense.  If that's the case, sounds like we might be able to attack the paint and if we can draw some fouls on their bigs (Cohen and Brooks), we might be able to neutralize their top scorers.  Is that about right?

There's also these from ESPN:

These both seem to play into our hands.

Agree on all of that.

Do a reasonably good job defending the 3 + on O, attack the basket and don't settle for crappy shots = W.
"We need journalists who are on the side of victims, on the side of those who are persecuted, excluded, thrown away and discriminated against ... situations of suffering that often are in the dark, or have light shining for a moment only to return to the darkness of indifference."

-- Pope Francis

MUMountin

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Re: An N.C. resident's scouting report
« Reply #19 on: March 17, 2013, 11:43:10 PM »
Brooks is a 6-7 forward who is very good on the low post; plays bigger than his size and is very tough and skilled; lots of people think he's an NBA player. Cohen is a 6-10 inside-outside threat who definitely will get a long look from NBA.

Do you think we put Jamil/Steve/Juan on Cohen to stay with him and limit him on the outside, and then let our centers guard Brooks?  Or, better to go zone and just be real aggressive on the perimeter?

DaCoach

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Re: An N.C. resident's scouting report
« Reply #20 on: March 17, 2013, 11:58:46 PM »
Our Achilles heel is turnovers. That shouldn't be an issue with Davidson. Another plus should be our ability to penetrate. Looks like a double digit W. Then we get a chance to pay back Butler. Sweet 16 again.
Players win awards but teams win championships

MUfan12

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Re: An N.C. resident's scouting report
« Reply #21 on: March 18, 2013, 12:05:17 AM »
Our Achilles heel is turnovers. That shouldn't be an issue with Davidson.

Shouldn't have been against ND, either.

MUMountin

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Re: An N.C. resident's scouting report
« Reply #22 on: March 18, 2013, 12:10:45 AM »
Agree on all of that.

Do a reasonably good job defending the 3 + on O, attack the basket and don't settle for crappy shots = W.

Looking into it a little further, looks like Cohen can be foul-prone: fouled out of 5 games, had 4 fouls in 10 other games.  And, at 6-10 235, he's going to have trouble banging with Otule and Gardner.  Brooks isn't too much better--2 foul outs, 4 fouls in 10 games as well.  Both fouled out against Gonzaga.  I think if we can get into these guys with Gardner and Otule early, as well as lots of slashing with the guards, we can take control of the paint and really reduce them to a one-dimensional team.

muwarrior97

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Re: An N.C. resident's scouting report
« Reply #23 on: March 18, 2013, 12:19:40 AM »
As long as Curry isn't allowed another game of eligibility Quette takes this one.....hopefully getting another shot at Rotnei and his Dawgs
March 3, 2012 - Got my scholarship
November 29, 2012 -  Deported to Idiotville
March 21, 2014 - Brent Character moved to Blacksburg, I made All-American
March 20, 2019 - Took an indefinite sabbatical from all MU social media & podcasts

Markusquette

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Re: An N.C. resident's scouting report
« Reply #24 on: March 18, 2013, 02:39:44 AM »
I don't think we're freaking out.  This was a great analysis and any team can beat any team.  Remember when #3 seed Louisville went down to Faried and Morehead State?  Davidson poses some real threats and if they exploit our weaknesses and play well it could be a loss.  I expect the win but you can never look past it.