Possible NCAA #2 Seed?

[WellsstreetWanderer]

I am hoping for a 3.  a 2 improbable and a #1 impossible this year

[CTWarrior]

Last few years the committee has said the conference tournaments are important, but not nearly as important as folks make them out to be.

You are right, but in this case their regular season profiles aren't so much better than ours (we tied during the Big East season after very similar schedules after all) that beating them both this week wouldn't move us ahead of them.  If we do, we'll have split with Louisville with the loss on the road and the win on a neutral court, while we will have taken 2 of 3 from Georgetown.  I think that would put us in front of each of them.  

Let's hope we get to find out what they'll do in that situation!

[Hards Alumni]

You are right, but in this case their regular season profiles aren't so much better than ours (we tied during the Big East season after very similar schedules after all) that beating them both this week wouldn't move us ahead of them.  If we do, we'll have split with Louisville with the loss on the road and the win on a neutral court, while we will have taken 2 of 3 from Georgetown.  I think that would put us in front of each of them.  

Let's hope we get to find out what they'll do in that situation!

In addition, we are one spot behind Gtown on RPI.  I don't see how we are seeded behind them if we beat them in the BEAST tournament.

[mu-rara]

We better hope we get an invite to the Padre Serra this year. 

Total aside, but have you looked at Padre Serra MVPs?

Novak
Bray
Greer

Those come to mind.  Can't access web site for more complete list, but some pretty good players.

[statnik]

Given that we barely beat Rutgers and St. John's, I do not know why anyone thinks we have a chance of winning out. I do think we have a better than 50-50 chance of beating Notre Dame, but I am not counting my chickens before they are hatched.

Yep, but on the off chance we do win the Big East Tourney, we're probably a #2 seed, perhaps the highest 3.  Definitely will not get a 1, and if we do, we will be the worst 1 seed in the history of the tournament I believe.

[MU82]

Given that we barely beat Rutgers and St. John's, I do not know why anyone thinks we have a chance of winning out.

True dat. And given that we lost to Green Bay, I do not know why anyone thinks we have a chance of winning a share of the regular-season Big East title.

[Benny B]

Benny--when we win3 in a row on the road against team like ND then LOU then GEORGE ill get on that bus.  Saying -again--that is extremely difficult task. If we do, no doubt a #2 seed.

Nobody said MU was going to win the BET.  The hypothetical that was floated was ""if" MU won out, would they be a 2-seed."  Now that everyone has boarded the preposition train, if you look out the right window, you'll see that our "yes" train is now passing the "lot of dominoes" handcar being piloted by Chicos.

The last few years the committee has come and said the conference tournaments are important, but not that important.  It's the body of work. 

Translation: "We don't have time to wait for conference tourney results if we're going to get the bracket briefcase to NCAA HQ by six o'clock."

[ChicosBailBonds]

If Lunardi is right and he has us as a 4 seed, it will be very difficult to get a 2 and jump two lines.  Many many things have to fall right for us.  He has Louisville as a 1 seed.  Worst they are going to do is drop to a 2 seed. 

[4everwarriors]

Wow, are we talkin' 'bout the same team who blew a 9 pt. lead a couple of days ago, when full court pressure was applied, against a conference nobody without 2 of their top 5 players dressed in urban wear? Great, they earned a share a the BE regular championship. No small accomplishment at all. But, are they a FF seed or Elite 8 seed? I think 4 is about right.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Wow, are we talkin' 'bout the same team who blew a 9 pt. lead a couple of days ago, when full court pressure was applied, against a conference nobody without 2 of their top 5 players dressed in urban wear? Great, they earned a share a the BE regular championship. No small accomplishment at all. But, are they a FF seed or Elite 8 seed? I think 4 is about right.

Shhhhhhhh


There's optimism in the air, keep it going.      

[Benny B]

Wow, are we talkin' 'bout the same team who blew a 9 pt. lead a couple of days ago, when full court pressure was applied, against a conference nobody without 2 of their top 5 players dressed in urban wear? Great, they earned a share a the BE regular championship. No small accomplishment at all. But, are they a FF seed or Elite 8 seed? I think 4 is about right.

Seriously? 

If you disagree with the prospect that MU would be a 2-seed in a scenario where they won the BET, just say so.  If you want to debate why MU will/won't win the BET, please start a different thread.

[MUSF]

If Lunardi is right and he has us as a 4 seed, it will be very difficult to get a 2 and jump two lines.  Many many things have to fall right for us. 

Like winning the BEast tourney? That is the point.

[Sir Lawrence]

Wow, are we talkin' 'bout the same team who blew a 9 pt. lead a couple of days ago, when full court pressure was applied, against a conference nobody without 2 of their top 5 players dressed in urban wear? Great, they earned a share a the BE regular championship. No small accomplishment at all. But, are they a FF seed or Elite 8 seed? I think 4 is about right.

This.
I love the enthusiasm on this board, and on the team, but the chest thumping is premature.  4 ever is spot on.

[MUSF]

Sure

IU
Duke
Gonzaga

All #1 seeds regardless of what happens this week.

That leaves 5 spots open

G'Town or Louisville makes the Big East final...one of them is getting a 2 seed.
Miami makes the ACC final...2 seed
Kansas makes semis or finals of Big 12....2 seed, could still be a one seed
Florida wins the SEC tourney...could be a 2 seed
Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State...any two of these three make the final and win it, you have a potential of at least one if not two of them fighting for a 2 seed.
Etc. 

Not that hard at all, really.  Look at who most experts have as 1 and 2 seeds right now.  If they perform well this week, which easily could happen, why would they drop out?  What we do is not in a vaccum. 

I don't think Miami moves ahead of us in this scenario.
GTown won't be ahead of us if we beat them.
Depends on who Florida beats.
Depends on who Kansas beats.
Your other Big Ten teams would also be impacted by the other teams performance in this hypothetical scenario.

You keep saying that "what we do is not in a vacuum", but what all these other teams do is not in a vacuum either.

[NavinRJohnson]

Seriously?  

If you disagree with the prospect that MU would be a 2-seed in a scenario where they won the BET, just say so.  If you want to debate why MU will/won't win the BET, please start a different thread.

This. Some of you guys have serious reading comprehension problems.

I don't believe for a second they will win the BET. If (got that? If. One more time...if) they did, there is a very reasonable chance they would end up with a 2 next to their name.

[MUSF]

This.
I love the enthusiasm on this board, and on the team, but the chest thumping is premature.  4 ever is spot on.

I don't see any chest thumping. We are talking about a hypothetical scenario. I don't think anyone has predicted victory in the tourney.

[bilsu]

If Lunardi is right and he has us as a 4 seed, it will be very difficult to get a 2 and jump two lines.  Many many things have to fall right for us.  He has Louisville as a 1 seed.  Worst they are going to do is drop to a 2 seed. 

Last year Louisville won Big East tournament and I am guessing they moved up significanly on their championship.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Like winning the BEast tourney? That is the point.

It would take more than just winning the BEast tournament....Many dominoes, MU winning the BEAST only knocks down two.  What KU, UF, Miami, MSU, OSU, UM, etc do also matters. 

Only 8 slots for the top 2 seeds.  4 of them are locked and loaded right now

IU (no worse than a 2)
Gonzaga (1 guaranteed)
Duke (no worse than a 2)
Louisville (even if Louisville loses in the BET, they aren't going to get anything worse than a 2)

That leaves 4 spots left for these 9 teams
Florida
Michigan State
Ohio State
Miami
Kansas
New Mexico
Georgetown
Marquette
Kansas State
Oklahoma State

Could happen, but plenty of dominoes

[Benny B]

It would take more than just winning the BEast tournament....Many dominoes, MU winning the BEAST only knocks down two.  What KU, UF, Miami, MSU, OSU, UM, etc do also matters. 

Only 8 slots for the top 2 seeds.  4 of them are locked and loaded right now

IU (no worse than a 2)
Gonzaga (1 guaranteed)
Duke (no worse than a 2)
Louisville (even if Louisville loses in the BET, they aren't going to get anything worse than a 2)

That leaves 4 spots left for these 9 teams
Florida
Michigan State
Ohio State
Miami
Kansas
New Mexico
Georgetown
Marquette
Kansas State
Oklahoma State

Could happen, but plenty of dominoes

I'll agree with IU, Gonzaga and Duke.  So for argument's sake, let's assume Duke (over Miami), UNM (over CSU), IU (over OSU), KU (over KSU), UF (over UK), and MU (over GU) win their respective conference tourneys.

You have one 1-seed and four 2-seeds to fill from Teams A-H below.  I'll concede that New Mexico and either of UL or GU would likely grab two of them.  So you have three spots left to fill between 1- and 2- lines from the following seven teams (UNM thrown in for comparison purposes), with resumes that would look, more or less, like the following:

	Team A	Team B	Team C	Team D	UNM	Team F	Team G	Team H	Top 3
Record	27-6	26-7	25-8	29-5	29-5	27-6	25-8	26-7	D-A-F
RPI	4	5	11	6	2	9	12	7	A-B-H
SOS	7	9	13	15	2	21	6	8	G-A-B
vs. RPI top 50	9-5	10-5	7-8	13-3	10-3	6-4	8-8	6-3	D-B-H
vs. RPI top 100	13-6	13-6	9-8	15-4	19-5	15-6	10-8	15-3	H-D-F
Road W/L	8-3	5-6	5-5	7-3	8-4	7-6	6-5	10-3	H-A-D
Neutral W/L	4-2	5-1	4-1	5-1	6-0	5-0	2-2	2-3	F-B-D
Bad Losses (RPI>100)	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	2	A-C-F-G

IMO, the only team that stands out above is Team D (Kansas), so put them in.  Teams A, B, F, and H form the second tier.  Teams G & C (MSU and OSU, respectively) are the next tier.

So of A, B, F and H, (UL, MU, UF and Miami, respectively) two of them will get one of the remaining two spots.  If UL bows out to MU, in the BET semis, I can't see the committee placing MU behind UL given the resumes.  Further, I don't think the Big East will put three teams into the top 8 places on the s-curve, so eliminate Team A.  MU and Florida went head to head, so give Florida the edge there.  So one 2-seed left at this point, and it's between Miami and Marquette.  One team beat BC and Virginia before losing to Duke while the other team just beat three ranked teams ND, UL and GU... who is the committee going to give the edge to there?

I see your point that MU could win out and things don't break their way for a 2-seed, especially if Miami beats Duke for the ACC crown and MSU/OSU beats IU in the B?.  Though I would have to ask, resumes aside, is the committee going to displace the Big East co-champion/tourney champion ahead of Florida and/or Georgetown?

I'll revise my earlier statement and say that if MU wins out, it has a 85%+ chance of being a 2-seed.  In other words, a lot would have to break against Marquette for MU to not get a 2-seed after winning the BET.

[Skiwarrior]

One would think if we beat three quality teams like you mentioned that we should deserve a 2 seed. First off, we are usually not a good Big East Tourney team except for 08' or 09'. We always seem to face G'Town and they have their way with us. We all know that MU doesn't get any love from the AP or Coaches poll so I think the best seed we get is a 3. On the other hand if we were Wisconsin and got killed at home on senior day, get blown away at Mich. St. And win on a buzzer beater against a 2 victory bottom feeder and stay put at 22nd in AP we definitely would get a 2 seed and get our coach the c.o.y. award. My point is is that no matter what we do as an institution we never get what we deserve. Elite 8 for sure this yr and possibly even more, great coaching staff=great players=the best damn fans in the country....
"We Are Marquette"
Scotty Smooth

[Eldon]

It would take more than just winning the BEast tournament....Many dominoes, MU winning the BEAST only knocks down two.  What KU, UF, Miami, MSU, OSU, UM, etc do also matters. 

Only 8 slots for the top 2 seeds.  4 of them are locked and loaded right now

IU (no worse than a 2)
Gonzaga (1 guaranteed)
Duke (no worse than a 2)
Louisville (even if Louisville loses in the BET, they aren't going to get anything worse than a 2)

That leaves 4 spots left for these 9 teams
Florida
Michigan State
Ohio State
Miami
Kansas
New Mexico
Georgetown
Marquette
Kansas State
Oklahoma State

Could happen, but plenty of dominoes

Hit the nail on the head

[Goose]

I love the accomplishments this team has had any they deserve respect. That said, I am not even certain we are a good 4 seed. We have escaped of late and my hopes is whenever it ends that ends with close game. This team has weakness in several areas and really has exceeded what could ever be expected. Hoping we keep doing it, but am realistic of where this team belongs.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Statsheet has MU as the third, 3 seed...just ahead of MSU and behind Florida and KSU on the three line.

http://goldeneaglefan.com/marquette-basketball/statseed-update/statsheet-projects-marquette-as-ncaa-tournament-three-seed-03-11-2013

[JakeBarnes]

Statsheet has MU as the third, 3 seed...just ahead of MSU and behind Florida and KSU on the three line.

http://goldeneaglefan.com/marquette-basketball/statseed-update/statsheet-projects-marquette-as-ncaa-tournament-three-seed-03-11-2013

If Marquette wins the BET, they would probably move down to a 5 seed. Most of the world of ESPN doesn't know the team won co-champion and only knows the team is "scrappy" and probably a bubble team.because of that attribute. Heck, I'm yet to see ESPN or SI mention Marquette in their previews of the BET (correction, small blurb about Blue in ESPN blog article).

[Sunbelt15]

A #2 seed will probably bring more pressure to go deep on the tournament by the media or ridicule from others of not being deservant, which is attention we don't need. A four seed is good. We will stay that "silent killer" until the sweet 16 or elite 8.