Half Baked Turnovers

[Dr. Blackheart]

In four of Marquette's losses this season, the poor trey shooting Golden Eagles have actually had a higher eFG% than their opponents: Butler, UWG, Goergetown and Villanova. To put this in perspective, this only happened once during a loss all of last season-- the BET loss to Louisville. The difference? Marquette's incredibly high turnover rates, like yesterday's season high 30.2%.  Marquette is literally handing over victories with careless play.

To put this year's squad in perspective, four out of the five worst turnover rate games under Buzz Williams have happened this season, with the outlier being that BET game versus Louisville. Marquette is Pomeroy's 15th most offensively efficient offense, yet the turnovers are literally holding this team back from winning the Big East. The only worse MU turnover team in Pomeroy history was that 2004-05 team...you know, the one that lost to Western Michigan in the NIT.  When will the coach make the necessary changes?

Edited my typo to UWGB thanks to JayBee...Junior has me so flustered, he even made me throw one into the 10th row.   

[real chili 83]

Doc, great stats.  Well done.

[4everwarriors]

Syracuse will give you more fuel for fire. To answer the question; next season.

[79Warrior]

In four of Marquette's losses this season, the poor trey shooting Golden Eagles have actually had a higher eFG% than their opponents: Butler, Louisville, Goergetown and Villanova. To put this in perspective, this only happened once during a loss all of last season-- the BET loss to Louisville. The difference? Marquette's incredibly high turnover rates, like yesterday's season high 30.2%.  Marquette is literally handing over victories with careless play.

To put this year's squad in perspective, four out of the five worst turnover rate games under Buzz Williams have happened this season, with the outlier being that BET game versus Louisville. Marquette is Pomeroy's 15th most offensively efficient offense, yet the turnovers are literally holding this team back from winning the Big East. The only worse MU turnover team in Pomeroy history was that 2004-05 team...you know, the one that lost to Western Michigan in the NIT.  When will the coach make the necessary changes?

As soon as he gets a legitimate true point guard instead of one who throws passes into the crowd.

[Jay Bee]

In four of Marquette's losses this season, the poor trey shooting Golden Eagles have actually had a higher eFG% than their opponents: Butler, Louisville, Goergetown and Villanova. To put this in perspective, this only happened once during a loss all of last season-- the BET loss to Louisville. The difference? Marquette's incredibly high turnover rates, like yesterday's season high 30.2%.  Marquette is literally handing over victories with careless play.

To put this year's squad in perspective, four out of the five worst turnover rate games under Buzz Williams have happened this season, with the outlier being that BET game versus Louisville. Marquette is Pomeroy's 15th most offensively efficient offense, yet the turnovers are literally holding this team back from winning the Big East. The only worse MU turnover team in Pomeroy history was that 2004-05 team...you know, the one that lost to Western Michigan in the NIT.  When will the coach make the necessary changes?

What are the necessary changes? The biggest issue might be opponent + playing on the road.

Marquette tends to have some interesting (relatively high) correlations for TO's and OR%... on both sides of the ball.

I think you're lying about Louisville.

Butler (neutral court) – agreed.

At Georgetown – They have an excellent defense. Our starters totaled 14 turnovers, every starter w/multiple turnovers. Hoyas also outrebounded us and got to the line more often than us.

At Nova - solid defense; our fouling and inability to get to the line hurt as well. 18 made for Nova vs. 14 attempted for Warriors. Lots of really stupid turnovers, though.

Second worst turnover game this year... North Carolina Central – Their team turns people over a lot; junior guard Jeremy Ingram is a good thief & had 4 at MU; half of MU's 20 turnovers were by the bench including 6 by Jamil. Brutal performance by him. Junior had 6 but he had a decent overall offensive performance.

At Louisville game was puke for MU from a turnover perspective, but they got whipped in most every way. Louisville = excellent defense; 5 Warriors w/multiple turnovers. MU's net turnover margin was only negative 1 for the game.

We also shot less than, but won games against Savannah St (mediocre – for us – 22% turnover rate), Georgetown (even though we had a higher TO rate than them) and UCONN (had same TO rate as them).

Another  game we lost despite out shooting the opponent was at UWGB. Turnovers take some of the blame, but we also only got to the line flipping 9 times all game (19 for UWGB)... 55 poss game.

Turnovers drive me crazy, but I think we've been fortunate to have DJ, Acker (as a senior) and a lot of non-PG players who were very efficient. Junior's turnover rates are far too high, but I think this year's team has challenges bigger than turnovers.

Although. Crap... in losses this season.. Cadougan's turnover rate is 32%.. in wins, about 21%.

[Dr. Blackheart]

What are the necessary changes? The biggest issue might be opponent + playing on the road.

I think you're lying about Louisville.

See for yourself about UL in the link below.  MU actually oushot UL in both halves of that stinker, a neutral site game. 

Changes?  Limit the minutes of the point guard who was solely at the helm of the five worst turnover games in Buzz's tenure after he threw another pass 10 rows up. Why does Buzz give Mayo 13 minutes while that PG gets 32 or the other senior gives it up four times in 34?  Nine extra possessions between those two to Nova, which was also the turnover margin, yet they get rewarded with the most minutes.

http://statsheet.com/mcb/games/2012/03/08/louisville-84-marquette-71

[JakeBarnes]

Larry should look into drug testing during games if everyone is half baked and making turnovers (there's a joke there somewhere about making pastries while stoned).

[UticaBusBarn]

See for yourself about UL in the link below.  MU actually oushot UL in both halves of that stinker, a neutral site game. 

Changes?  Limit the minutes of the point guard who was solely at the helm of the five worst turnover games in Buzz's tenure after he threw another pass 10 rows up. Why does Buzz give Mayo 13 minutes while that PG gets 32 or the other senior gives it up four times in 34?  Nine extra possessions between those two to Nova, which was also the turnover margin, yet they get rewarded with the most minutes.

http://statsheet.com/mcb/games/2012/03/08/louisville-84-marquette-71

Dr. Blackheart you are correct. In fact, it is not hard to figure out the problem. Sadly, it is Junior.
The way to defend Junior, and have a good chance of defeating the Warriors, has been figured out.

Press Junior in the back court. Then over play him to his only dribble hand - his right - and put some backside pressure on him. Do not do it always, just when you want to snuff out a Warrior run, or keep yours going.

Junior is not crucial, despite some fine games. The proof is Wisconsin last year, and Pittsburg on the road this year. Wilson did fine. The offense worked fine. There were few turn-overs. The Warriors won.

We all know Coach Williams is keen on loyalty. We have all heard about the road Junior has traveled. We all have seen his heart and character. Unfortunately, we have also seen how he has "trended" against good teams.

It might be time for Coach Williams to look into the mirror and face reality. The Warriors cannot make a deep run with Junior on the stage during show time.

Syracuse guards right now are saying to themselves, "Shade Junior to his right and trap him from the blind side. He often looses his rhythm, which screws-up their offense, plus he often throws the ball away."

Maybe he would be a better as a spark off the bench.

[JD]

The most frustrating thing Saturday was juniors inability to use his brain. 

Hmmm they're going to pressure me, lets run to one side of the court and lob a lazy pass to vander on the other side with about 8 seconds run off.

If you suck at being pressured, take the ball, and sprint to the opposite end.  That's the easiest way when you cannot handle the press.  Time and time again I kept asking myself, "why don't you run and if you beat the press you have a 3-2 advantage". I don't think it's rocket science.

Same could be said about the behind the arc passes until the shot clock runs down to less than 10 seconds...

[Henry Sugar]

Going to pop this into this thread.



Also, if #mubb only turns the ball over at a normal rate (20%), they win that game. Just to state the obvious

[NYWarrior]

....Limit the minutes of the point guard who was solely at the helm of the five worst turnover games in Buzz's tenure after he threw another pass 10 rows up.....

Amen and thanks, Doc.

[CTWarrior]

Marquette is literally handing over victories with careless play.

While I would use the word "careless" to describe the turnovers against Georgetown, I would not characterize most of the turnovers against Villanova as careless.  It was not that we were careless so much as we were unable to avoid turning the ball over because we are not that good against pressure defense.  Against Georgetown I though we threw a lot of unforced lazy passes that were picked off.  Against Nova I thought we dribbled ourselves into trouble and got stripped or threw the ball away while trying very hard to avoid turnovers.  It is just one word, but it is a big difference, as careless turnovers can be avoided through diligence and attention to detail, while just being beaten by pressure defense is harder to overcome.

[Jay Bee]

See for yourself about UL in the link below.  MU actually oushot UL in both halves of that stinker, a neutral site game. 

Changes?  Limit the minutes of the point guard who was solely at the helm of the five worst turnover games in Buzz's tenure after he threw another pass 10 rows up. Why does Buzz give Mayo 13 minutes while that PG gets 32 or the other senior gives it up four times in 34?  Nine extra possessions between those two to Nova, which was also the turnover margin, yet they get rewarded with the most minutes.

http://statsheet.com/mcb/games/2012/03/08/louisville-84-marquette-71

That link is a game from last season. You said, "In four of Marquette's losses this season, the poor trey shooting Golden Eagles have actually had a higher eFG% than their opponents: Butler, Louisville,..."

I knew your beef was with Junior and I get it... but, I'm still asking what the necessary change is? "Sit Junior" isn't a change by itself.. what's the other part of it (i.e., who do you have running point during those reduced Cadougan minutes?).. and more importantly, does that get you to a better place, net?

[Goose]

Half baked turnrovers is very much the problem. Lazy passes, one hand passes (which seems to be a trend everywhere), having to rush late in the shot clock, backcourt pressure and passing to guys not able to catch the ball are all in play. I do not think the team is one par with top teams in talent or basketball IQ. We can win against tougher opponents if we are forced to play half court offense. Now watch, SU will force into that style and we find a way to win.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Although. Crap... in losses this season.. Cadougan's turnover rate is 32%.. in wins, about 21%.

This is selective, but to put Junior's 32% loss turnover rate in perspective, that is closer to Niv Berkowitz at 42.8% than DJ or Lil Bit their senior years (16%).  Hell, Marcus Jackson was at 27.4 and Joe Chapman was at 23.5 that dreadful 2004-05 season compared to Junior at 26.6 this season.  

When Junior gets behind defenders and gets into his dimes game, MU hums...but when the defense prevents him from getting in front of them, the decision making goes south. Our road starts are really bad which digs a deeper hole for Junior.  I am not suggesting he should not start, but MU needs more offensive fire to start games and soften the defenses. Jamil and Mayo are two of MU's best offensive weapons and shooters yet their minutes are tamped down in favor of turnover machines. Time for changes in minutes earned, IMO.  

[Dr. Blackheart]

That link is a game from last season. You said, "In four of Marquette's losses this season, the poor trey shooting Golden Eagles have actually had a higher eFG% than their opponents: Butler, Louisville,..."

Oops...UWGB is the fourth for this season..UL was the only one from last year.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

That link is a game from last season. You said, "In four of Marquette's losses this season, the poor trey shooting Golden Eagles have actually had a higher eFG% than their opponents: Butler, Louisville,..."

I knew your beef was with Junior and I get it... but, I'm still asking what the necessary change is? "Sit Junior" isn't a change by itself.. what's the other part of it (i.e., who do you have running point during those reduced Cadougan minutes?).. and more importantly, does that get you to a better place, net?

Bingo.

I think sitting Junior for another PG who can shoot and doesn't turn the ball over is a great idea!

The only problem is that guy doesn't exist on MU's roster.

Buzz could try Vander in that spot and then take Junior's minutes and spread them to amongst Mayo/Taylor Jr. But, there is an opportunity cost there. Will you be sacrificing too much by going with Blue at PG?

If Buzz can solve the curious case of Junior Cadougan, MU could be sweet 16 bound. If not, it could be an early exit.

From a tactical standpoint, I'd like to see jamil used more in the press break. Usually big guys that can handle the ball are the best weapon. Just clear the guards out and let Jamil dribble it up. However, I know teams are using some zone press, so that isn't necessarily the perfect solution.

[Spaniel with a Short Tail]

Plus, we never seem to make a pressing team PAY when they press us via an easy layup or dunk when we do break the press. There doesn't appear to be any downside to pressing us.

It looked like Syracuse was pressing Georgetown a lot the last 10 minutes of the second half (that's all I watched) so I predict the press is coming tonight.

[MUfan12]

Plus, we never seem to make a pressing team PAY when they press us via an easy layup or dunk when we do break the press. There doesn't appear to be any downside to pressing us.

Thank you. That's a huge pet peeve of mine. The only way to end a press is to truly crush it and get easy buckets. That should be the objective, not merely getting the ball over halfcourt in time.

[MarquetteDano]

Plus, we never seem to make a pressing team PAY when they press us via an easy layup or dunk when we do break the press. There doesn't appear to be any downside to pressing us.

It looked like Syracuse was pressing Georgetown a lot the last 10 minutes of the second half (that's all I watched) so I predict the press is coming tonight.

This.  Since we have been getting pressed more, when we do break it we are happy to drive the ball back out 35 feet and initiate the offense.  That will be a huge mistake versus Syracuse.  Don't let their 2-3 get setup.  If they press us we NEED to score in transition.

That also means playing Jamil Wilson more than 19 minutes to the previous poster's point.

[jesmu84]

From a tactical standpoint, I'd like to see jamil used more in the press break. Usually big guys that can handle the ball are the best weapon. Just clear the guards out and let Jamil dribble it up. However, I know teams are using some zone press, so that isn't necessarily the perfect solution.

Davante?

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Davante?

Yes and no.

He's strong with the ball in confined space, but I'm not sure I want him dribbling/lumbering up the court. Plus, that's a lot of work, and we already know that Buzz limits his minutes.

Scott Merrit was effective. He was a pretty good ball handler and had a good spin move in the open court. Ironically, that same spin move was bad in the lane because he picked up a lot of charges.

Jamil seems like the best candidate. Next year Juan and Taylor Jr. might be good options as well (need to get stronger and smarter before I would trust them as our main press breakers).

[bilsu]

Two types of turnovers bother me. Every once and a while we just throw a pass (and it is not just junior) that was either lazy or the defender was waiting to jump on and the player that goes up to shoot and decides to pass instead of shooting. Jamil going up for a shot and than passing it to the back of the player that had already turned to screen for the rebounder was the turning point in the game against Villanova. Before that Junior went up for a shot and then threw the ball well over Blue's head in the corner. They have to be committed to taking the shot when they start to take it.

[ATL MU Warrior]

I get that Junior as the primary ball handler is going to get the brunt of the criticism, but turnovers in these games are a much larger issue than just one player.

My ultra-simplistic way of looking at it:

In the four games pointed out in the OP, Junior averaged 4.0 TOs per game.  Compare that to the 2.4 TOs per game he averaged in the other 22 games this season.  So, he averaged 67% more turnovers in the four games than the rest of the year.  

The same math on some other notable players:
Vander Blue - +61%
Trent Lockett - +56%
Jamil Wilson - +45%

Vander wouldn't appear to be the answer, his TO's increased at nearly the same percent.  

Should we sit all of the above on favor of someone else?  What am I missing, other than a willingness to throw Junior under the bus as the cause of all our problems?

[GGGG]

Honestly, *if* they made a change at PG, and *if* they decided Wilson wasn't the choice, I would put Mayo at point and keep Blue on the wing where he is having a fine season.

That being said, I am not sure that they would be better off under this scenario either.