Half Baked Turnovers

[Dr. Blackheart]

Bingo.

I think sitting Junior for another PG who can shoot and doesn't turn the ball over is a great idea!

The only problem is that guy doesn't exist on MU's roster.

Buzz could try Vander in that spot and then take Junior's minutes and spread them to amongst Mayo/Taylor Jr. But, there is an opportunity cost there. Will you be sacrificing too much by going with Blue at PG?

If Buzz can solve the curious case of Junior Cadougan, MU could be sweet 16 bound. If not, it could be an early exit.

From a tactical standpoint, I'd like to see jamil used more in the press break. Usually big guys that can handle the ball are the best weapon. Just clear the guards out and let Jamil dribble it up. However, I know teams are using some zone press, so that isn't necessarily the perfect solution.

Is it too late in the season to make wholesale changes?....most likely yes, but I have said this before, give Vander, with more height and quickness, more playing time at point versus the zone.  Couple him with Mayo instead of Lockett, who has the speed and quickness to break that press in the middle with the dribble and who can create a shot on his own. Jamil, perhaps the best passer on the team, if not the BE, OVER the zone is a far better option than Jaun, and the best three point shooter on the team.  All three can create their own shots and make a press pay.

The defenses are trying to slog down MU and it is working.  How Mayo, who was single handedly taking over and changing the game in the first half, gets only 13 minutes is a head scratcher.  Is Mayo or Vander going to make more unforced errors even without any PG playing time up to this point?  Lockett's turnover rate is at 22% while Jaun is at 24% to go with Junior's 27%.  Yet, they all earn starting roles and two of them got the most minutes in that Nova game.

As I said, MU is simply handing these close games away.  They are winning, if not dominating, the other three factors (of the four) most of the time, even in losses. Fix turnovers against the zone and MU wins the BE.

[Litehouse]

It's a good point that other players are turning the ball over just as much as Junior.  However, Junior's sole purpose out there is to take care of the ball.  If he's turning the ball over, he offers no other benefit to us, since he's a liability the rest of the time on offense.  At least Blue, Mayo, Lockett, etc. offer more offensive firepower and can benefit the team in other ways despite the turnovers.

[ATL MU Warrior]

It's a good point that other players are turning the ball over just as much as Junior.  However, Junior's sole purpose out there is to take care of the ball.  If he's turning the ball over, he offers no other benefit to us, since he's a liability the rest of the time on offense.  At least Blue, Mayo, Lockett, etc. offer more offensive firepower and can benefit the team in other ways despite the turnovers.

Are you talking about the liability that leads the team in assists and is tied for 3rd on the team in scoring?  That's just ridiculous.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Is it too late in the season to make wholesale changes?....most likely yes, but I have said this before, give Vander, with more height and quickness, more playing time at point versus the zone.  Couple him with Mayo instead of Lockett, who has the speed and quickness to break that press in the middle with the dribble and who can create a shot on his own. Jamil, perhaps the best passer on the team, if not the BE, OVER the zone is a far better option than Jaun, and the best three point shooter on the team.  All three can create their own shots and make a press pay.

The defenses are trying to slog down MU and it is working.  How Mayo, who was single handedly taking over and changing the game in the first half, gets only 13 minutes is a head scratcher.  Is Mayo or Vander going to make more unforced errors even without any PG playing time up to this point?  Lockett's turnover rate is at 22% while Jaun is at 24% to go with Junior's 27%.  Yet, they all earn starting roles and two of them got the most minutes in that Nova game.

As I said, MU is simply handing these close games away.  They are winning, if not dominating, the other three factors (of the four) most of the time, even in losses. Fix turnovers against the zone and MU wins the BE.

I really WANT to agree with you, but I just don't know if Blue/Mayo is better than Cadougan/Blue.

I don't dislike Todd, but his numbers aren't that great, and moving Vander over might change or limit him. (opportunity cost).

Honestly, if this was game 3 of the year and Junior was looking horrible, I'd say "go for it", but at this point in the season, I think you have to roll with what you've got and try to work to Junior's strengths. Todd has been pretty up and down, and I don't know if he is a significant improvement over Junior.

If turnovers are really the problem, then the cure is D. Wilson. Now, that will create a new set of problems (a guy who can't shoot at all), but it will solve some of the turnover issues.

[Jay Bee]

Should we sit all of the above on favor of someone else?  What am I missing, other than a willingness to throw Junior under the bus as the cause of all our problems?

That was/is Dr. Blackheart's main point - he wants to throw Junior under the bus.

I understand the turnover numbers and I watch the games. I understand the frustration. But, I don't think Dr. Blackheart has a better alternative at this point. Put Vander at point guard now? Ugh...

Marquette isn't good enough right now to make a big tourney run without strong contributions from Cadougan. He may very well cough up the ball 6 times in a 60 possession game in the tourney and MU loses... but, if they are going to advance to week 2, I think they probably need him on the court a lot.

MU is a team that has an average turnover rate and a very efficient offense. I don't propose we limit the minutes of their senior, starting point guard because of concerns about the team's offense. Expecting better from him is fine. Being upset about some of the turnover rates on this team is fine. But, sitting Junior on the bench doesn't look like an answer to me.

[jesmu84]

If turnovers are really the problem, then the cure is D. Wilson. Now, that will create a new set of problems (a guy who can't shoot at all), but it will solve some of the turnover issues.

Well.. that would really depend on how Junior influences the other 3 factors (eFG, OR%, FTR). If there is minimal change/drop-off from the other 3 and a significant improvement in TO%, then I'd definitely play DWilson more and sit Junior.

[Jay Bee]

As I said, MU is simply handing these close games away.  They are winning, if not dominating, the other three factors (of the four) most of the time, even in losses. Fix turnovers against the zone and MU wins the BE.

I think you're looking way too hard at the turnover % and ignoring a lot of other things... plus, making things up.

"They are winning, if not dominating, the other three factors most of the time, even in losses"
Number of losses: 7
Number of times they won the other three factors: 1 (vs. Butler, and OR% was virtually the same)

So... is Marquette dominating the other three factors most of the time in losses? No, they never are.
Is Marquette winning re: the other three factors most of the time in losses? No. They just barely did one time out of seven.

[Litehouse]

Are you talking about the liability that leads the team in assists and is tied for 3rd on the team in scoring?  That's just ridiculous.

I agree that when Junior's good he's good.  He has had some great games when he had good match-ups, and was in a position to succeed.  But there are situations in which he struggles, like full-court pressure, that are easy to recognize.  You can tell early if it's one of those nights when he's just throwing the ball away all over the place.  Regarding the stats, Junior is also 2nd on the team in mpg and he plays PG.  He gets those stats because he has the ball in his hands more than anyone else on the team.  If Mayo had more minutes his stats would be better too.

For Villanova though, I wish Buzz would have used a line-up of Junior, Blue, Mayo, Lockett, and J.Wilson more often to break the press.

[tower912]

Junior's turnovers are a problem.   It appears that, like bad FT shooting, they are contagious with this team.   However, I just don't see how you can bench him and start Vander or DWilson at this point of the season. 

[Dr. Blackheart]

That was/is Dr. Blackheart's main point - he wants to throw Junior under the bus.

I understand the turnover numbers and I watch the games. I understand the frustration. But, I don't think Dr. Blackheart has a better alternative at this point. Put Vander at point guard now? Ugh...

Marquette isn't good enough right now to make a big tourney run without strong contributions from Cadougan. He may very well cough up the ball 6 times in a 60 possession game in the tourney and MU loses... but, if they are going to advance to week 2, I think they probably need him on the court a lot.

MU is a team that has an average turnover rate and a very efficient offense. I don't propose we limit the minutes of their senior, starting point guard because of concerns about the team's offense. Expecting better from him is fine. Being upset about some of the turnover rates on this team is fine. But, sitting Junior on the bench doesn't look like an answer to me.

So your solution is to put your head in the sand?  I love Junior against a man defense every time when he can get behind his man.  Buzz's minutes against a zone are what I am railing about.  Those player minutes were not earned.  I gave you my line up...I didn't say sit Junior for an entire game, but certainly cut back minutes from the players who are turning it over in bunches. The slow starts and the unforced turnovers out front are holding this team back.

Now I am awaiting your solution to Junior's issues...I love blind senior loyalty too, but when the Coach is railing about the effort after the game of his players, then he should do something about it.

[ATL MU Warrior]

So your solution is to put your head in the sand?  I love Junior against a man defense every time when he can get behind his man.  Buzz's minutes against a zone are what I am railing about.  Those player minutes were not earned.  I gave you my line up...I didn't say sit Junior for an entire game, but certainly cut back minutes from the players who are turning it over in bunches. The slow starts and the unforced turnovers out front are holding this team back.

Now I am awaiting your solution to Junior's issues...I love blind senior loyalty too, but when the Coach is railing about the effort after the game of his players, then he should do something about it.

You (and others into advanced stats) have a far more sophisticated way of looking at this issue, but it seems to me that if we cut back minutes from the players who are turning it over in bunches, we are cutting back minutes from Junior, Vander, Trent and Jamil.  Who's left to play that's going to produce a better chance of winning that that group? 

[Goose]

Atl MU Warrior

I agree with you. The problem might be we just do not have any great combinations to play together. The guys you mentioned all be better served if they had better guys on the floor with them. It is not that we are completely lacking talent, it seems that most everyone is equal talent. Not sure if any answer the rest of the way.

[Jay Bee]

So your solution is to put your head in the sand?  I love Junior against a man defense every time when he can get behind his man.  Buzz's minutes against a zone are what I am railing about.  Those player minutes were not earned.  I gave you my line up...I didn't say sit Junior for an entire game, but certainly cut back minutes from the players who are turning it over in bunches. The slow starts and the unforced turnovers out front are holding this team back.

Now I am awaiting your solution to Junior's issues...I love blind senior loyalty too, but when the Coach is railing about the effort after the game of his players, then he should do something about it.

Solution? You're the one who came up with the problem that you are wanting to make major lineup changes for.

If you really think Marquette is being held back by only Junior Cadougan's turnovers, then we simply disagree. This team has more than its fair share of issues. Cadougan turns the ball over a lot against good defenses. He makes some very upsetting mistakes. But, "limiting" his minutes isn't going to propel this team to greatness. To achieve great things, they need Junior playing well (and a lot of other things/players to improve).

My issues with your posts in this thread are that the blame on turnovers is overdone, some of your facts are wrong and your solution is to put Vander Blue at point guard.

If you want to put Cadougan on the bench when he coughs it up a couple of times in a game - great! Get Todd more time - cool! I'm all for it. But to say this team is being held back and losing games just because of his turnovers is too much.

For me, Jamil continues to be key. I'd like his minutes up and his possession usage up.

[Henry Sugar]

Just to throw some additional perspective into the thread



Here are the season averages and then the 10th / 90th percentile for each factor. Base case is the season average. Context on sucking... eFG% below the 10th percentile is @UC, @UL, vs GU (win). OR% below the 10th percentile is @UF, SHU (win), NCC (win). TO% below the 10th percentile is @Nova, NCC (win), @GU. Note that @UL and @UWGB don't fall into the 10th percentile, but they are the next two bad turnover games.



As it always is, eFG% matters more than anything else. Shoot lights out and you can usually overcome the other factors.

OR% is more important than Turnover Rate, but primarily on the upside. In the context of dragging down the offense, it's almost the same. However, the problem is that Marquette doesn't have many games where they get shut down on the offensive boards. And yet, in three of their conference losses, Marquette has been terrible at protecting the ball.

Finally, I have no idea how to fix the turnover issue.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Solution? You're the one who came up with the problem that you are wanting to make major lineup changes for.

If you really think Marquette is being held back by only Junior Cadougan's turnovers, then we simply disagree. This team has more than its fair share of issues. Cadougan turns the ball over a lot against good defenses. He makes some very upsetting mistakes. But, "limiting" his minutes isn't going to propel this team to greatness. To achieve great things, they need Junior playing well (and a lot of other things/players to improve).

My issues with your posts in this thread are that the blame on turnovers is overdone, some of your facts are wrong and your solution is to put Vander Blue at point guard.

If you want to put Cadougan on the bench when he coughs it up a couple of times in a game - great! Get Todd more time - cool! I'm all for it. But to say this team is being held back and losing games just because of his turnovers is too much.

For me, Jamil continues to be key. I'd like his minutes up and his possession usage up.

I don't think we are really that far away beyond the literal interpretations.  My point is certain line-ups against pressure zones are not good match-ups.  I am not suggesting "major" changes, but what I am suggesting is to pull back minutes for Junior and Lockett if they continue to perform like they did at Nova.  You maintain to ride those two out because they got us here.  Fine...I get that...never suggested an outright benching, but rather my rotations against a zone with reduced minutes.  I don't mind turnovers if they are creating action (offensive fouls, great defensive steal, a tie up and unable to get a time out)...what I mind are unforced or lazy turnovers (10th row passes, lazy lobs) outfront as clearly laid out in the Synergy stats PT's pointed out.

In 26 games, MU has outright won...

• Twenty games on eFG%, or 77%
• 16 on OReb Rate, or 62%
• 18 on FTR, 69%
• and just 9 games won on turnover rate, or 35%

If you are fine with that, great.  But, it is pretty clear where the problem resides, whether you want to bluster on me otherwise is your choice...although some of your posts even support some of this...which is why I asked for your solution.  

[Henry Sugar]

I'd like to make one other point.

Pomeroy tracks turnover rate for all Big East players who play at least 40% of the minutes in league games. Junior is ranked #93 out of 97 players in the league.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

I'd like to make one other point.

Pomeroy tracks turnover rate for all Big East players who play at least 40% of the minutes in league games. Junior is ranked #93 out of 97 players in the league.

How about D. Wilson?

If we really think turnovers are the problem, maybe D. Wilson is actually the solution.

[Henry Sugar]

D Wilson plays 34% of minutes (so he's not on the list), and his turnover rate is 25%. It's only slightly better than Junior's.

Steve Taylor's turnover rate is 14%. He should be the point guard.

Free Steve Taylor!

[Bocephys]

D Wilson plays 34% of minutes (so he's not on the list), and his turnover rate is 25%. It's only slightly better than Junior's.

Steve Taylor's turnover rate is 14%. He should be the point guard.

Free Steve Taylor!

The math checks out.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

D Wilson plays 34% of minutes (so he's not on the list), and his turnover rate is 25%. It's only slightly better than Junior's.

Steve Taylor's turnover rate is 14%. He should be the point guard.

Free Steve Taylor!

Wow. That is surprising. I thought D. Wilson would be a lot lower.

[Stretchdeltsig]

It's not just Caboogan's turnovers, it's his slow, high dribble; picking it up when two defenders press him; poor passes and general slow speed game that throws the entire team off tempo.  I don't know what happened, but, his game has gotten worse as the season goes on. 

How would Ferguson do at point guard?

[RJax55]

How would Ferguson do at point guard?

Since he's never played the position (at least not in high school), I'm guessing not great.

What about Jake Thomas??

[tower912]

Great game by Junior.   38 minutes, 1 turnover.   Cut the kid some slack.  He isn't perfect.   But he is starting the rest of the way. 

[keefe]

Great game by Junior.   38 minutes, 1 turnover.   Cut the kid some slack.  He isn't perfect.   But he is starting the rest of the way. 

Well said. Thank God some of these folks don't have Buzz' job. Now that would be a disaster. Cadougan is it then the cupboard is nekkid. And he is fine. Marquette has had some world class PG's. And while I wouldn't put Jr in the top 5 of all time he is a damn sight better than some of the guys we've had. I predict he'll take us to the Sweet Sixteen. Again.

[brewcity77]

What kills me about Junior is I expected a great game from him tonight. He always seems to rebound from his bad games with excellent ones. After his 2-point performance in the Florida loss, he blasted Wisconsin for 18 points and 6 assists with only 1 turnover. After he turned it over 5 times at Green Bay, he scored 17 and added 6 assists in the win over LSU. Ugly performance against Louisville backed up with two solid games in wins over USF and DePaul. That's just how he is.

I have a feeling the his last game at Marquette will be one that leaves a sour taste in our mouth and probably ends our season. Which sucks because if he would just get one more game after that one, he'd lead us to a win.