Potential NCAA Pod Assignments

[77ncaachamps]

The current Bracketology has *gulp* potential MU-Indiana matchup!

http://espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

[Benny B]

The current Bracketology has *gulp* potential MU-Indiana matchup!

http://espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

Just think, next year's "remember the titans" video could show Tom Crean cheering MU's victory in 2003 and, mere seconds later, Tom Crean agonizing in defeat at the hands of MU in 2013.

[wardle2wade]

Nah, just buy SWA Business Select. A few extra scheckles, but when you cancel real bread is refunded.

True but Business Select is not discounted if buying early... You can pay that inflated price at any time.  The hotel equivalent of paying the rack rate, but getting to pick your room.

[wardle2wade]

I was about to jump on some people about "1st/2nd rounds" in San Jose because my tickets say 2nd/3rd.

Then I realized the idiotic NCAA did a switcheroo on the names.

Respective to SJ getting the Tourney within three years, it's pretty simple why: lots of disposable income in the Bay Area.

True to that with disposable income, but the ticket market was easy and a bloodbath.  For the afternoon doubleheader (Murray Stater buzzer beater over Vandy!), I paid $15 a piece for two corner lowers together.  I will say that Face on the SJ tix were higher than most other venues.

Either way, the HP did a great job hosting and is a nice venue... just would suck for overall MU attendance again compared to most the other venues.  I would to have that away game feeling as a preferred seed again.

Selfishly, I'm located in the Bay Area now so it'd actually be pretty convenient for me if MU landed in SJ.

[Benny B]

Hope it turns out better than our last trip there....that flight home sucked after the Washington game.

Try driving back to Chicago from Winston-Salem after Michigan State, and then tell me how crappy your flight was.

[MUMountin]

Thinking ahead a little bit, I wanted to make some educated guesses about where we might end up playing in the first round of the NCAA tournament, and who we are "competing" against for favorable locations. 

In theory, the top 16 teams (seeds 1-4) are "protected": they are supposed to be placed at the closest site to them that doesn't already have 2 better-seeded teams in it.  The best teams are sent to the closest locations, which limits the possibilities for the lower top 16 teams.  So, if you start at the top of the S-curve and work your way down, you eliminate possible locations.  It basically works out that the 1's and 2's get their top 1 or two preferences, 3's seem to land relatively close to home in most cases, and the remaining 4's will most of the time get sent to whatever is left. 

Currently, MU seems to be just on the edge of the "protected" seed range--falling somewhere around the last of the four seeds.  Depending on how the next three games go, I think they could get as high as a 3 seed (win out, and a two likely comes into play).  Conversely, if MU stumbles a bit down the stretch, they would likely fall into the 5-7 range, making the rest of this moot.

Making some assumptions about teams that I assume will likely finish ahead of Marquette, here're some likelihoods about what sites probably won't be available to us, because they are the closest location to a team that is likely to be either a #1 or #2 seed (current #3 seeds in italics):

Auburn Hills, MI (251 m): Michigan, Michigan St.
Dayton, OH (284 m): Miami/Florida*, Louisville
Lexington, KY (381 m): Indiana, Miami/Florida*
Kansas City, MO (438 m): Kansas
Philadelphia, PA (688 m): Duke, Syracuse
Austin, TX (1035 m): New Mexico
Salt Lake City, UT (1244 m): Gonzaga, Arizona
San Jose, CA (1825 m):

*Its tough to say what the committee will do with both Miami and Florida; there is no natural site for first round games for them, and they have several places that are all relatively similar distances away (Lexington, Dayton, Philadelphia, and Austin), so the committee could shift them around a little to make things easier for some of the other seeds.

Based on the current #1 seeds, Auburn Hills and Lexington are most likely not going to be open to us, and maybe Dayton and Philadelphia from the best possibilities for MU.

It looks, then, like our best possibilities are either in Dayton or Kansas City, with a possibility of Philadelphia. 

To land in Dayton or Philly, we'll probably have to be seeded ahead of Louisville, Georgetown, and Syracuse.  In fact, as it currently stands, the top two Big East teams will probably end up in the open spots in Dayton and Philly, with the other Big East seeds being sent out west somewhere.

To be in KC, our biggest competition are K-State, Ok St., and CSU.

We're also currently seeded ahead of the Badgers, Gophers, and Butler, who also have similar geographic preferences to MU--if any of those teams slide in front of us. 

All told, I did not expect that we'd even be sniffing a top 4 seed this year, so pretty great to be able to dream about this in late February.  Still a lot of basketball to be played, but this gives us something to think about, and some idea of who to be cheering against to grab a good spot.

Bumping this with an update, based on most recent S-curve from Lunardi (http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/9009916/bracketology-gerogetown-rises-latest-s-curve-college-basketball)--current projected s-curve positions in parantheses:

Auburn Hills, MI (251 m): Michigan St. (8), Michigan (10)
Dayton, OH (284 m): Indiana (1), Florida (9)
Lexington, KY (381 m): Louisville (6), Miami (7)
Kansas City, MO (438 m): Kansas (3), Kansas St. (12)
Philadelphia, PA (688 m): Georgetown (4), Duke (5)
Austin, TX (1035 m): New Mexico (11)
Salt Lake City, UT (1244 m): Gonzaga (2),
San Jose, CA (1825 m):


Lunardi currently has us as the highest of the 4-seeds currently--#13 overall.  Some overall movement, but looks like we are still fighting for a good spot--right now, looks like most likely that we'll end up in Austin.  I think our best hopes right now are to hope that either Florida (Vandy, @UK), Michigan (Mich St., @Purdue, Indiana), or K-State (TCU, @OKSt) stumble down the stretch to open up a spot in Dayton, Auburn Hills, or KC, respectively. 

Alternately, we've still got to be concerned with Syracuse (14) and Ohio St (16) passing us up--they are currently the other teams on the 4-line giving us competition (UW (15) was also a 4, but they likely drop out of competition with their loss to Purdue today).  Both have marquee win opportunities (G'Town/Indiana) that could vault them over us even if we win out in regular season.

I think if OK St. (17) beats K-State, we probably end up in front of both for priority at KC, if we don't end up anywhere else. 

So, for the week, I'm cheering against Florida, Michigan, and K-State.

Of course, with this season, this is all subject to change--so who knows how different this will look going into conference tourneys.