Potential NCAA Pod Assignments

[MUMountin]

Thinking ahead a little bit, I wanted to make some educated guesses about where we might end up playing in the first round of the NCAA tournament, and who we are "competing" against for favorable locations. 

In theory, the top 16 teams (seeds 1-4) are "protected": they are supposed to be placed at the closest site to them that doesn't already have 2 better-seeded teams in it.  The best teams are sent to the closest locations, which limits the possibilities for the lower top 16 teams.  So, if you start at the top of the S-curve and work your way down, you eliminate possible locations.  It basically works out that the 1's and 2's get their top 1 or two preferences, 3's seem to land relatively close to home in most cases, and the remaining 4's will most of the time get sent to whatever is left. 

Currently, MU seems to be just on the edge of the "protected" seed range--falling somewhere around the last of the four seeds.  Depending on how the next three games go, I think they could get as high as a 3 seed (win out, and a two likely comes into play).  Conversely, if MU stumbles a bit down the stretch, they would likely fall into the 5-7 range, making the rest of this moot.

Making some assumptions about teams that I assume will likely finish ahead of Marquette, here're some likelihoods about what sites probably won't be available to us, because they are the closest location to a team that is likely to be either a #1 or #2 seed (current #3 seeds in italics):

Auburn Hills, MI (251 m): Michigan, Michigan St.
Dayton, OH (284 m): Miami/Florida*, Louisville
Lexington, KY (381 m): Indiana, Miami/Florida*
Kansas City, MO (438 m): Kansas
Philadelphia, PA (688 m): Duke, Syracuse
Austin, TX (1035 m): New Mexico
Salt Lake City, UT (1244 m): Gonzaga, Arizona
San Jose, CA (1825 m):

*Its tough to say what the committee will do with both Miami and Florida; there is no natural site for first round games for them, and they have several places that are all relatively similar distances away (Lexington, Dayton, Philadelphia, and Austin), so the committee could shift them around a little to make things easier for some of the other seeds.

Based on the current #1 seeds, Auburn Hills and Lexington are most likely not going to be open to us, and maybe Dayton and Philadelphia from the best possibilities for MU.

It looks, then, like our best possibilities are either in Dayton or Kansas City, with a possibility of Philadelphia. 

To land in Dayton or Philly, we'll probably have to be seeded ahead of Louisville, Georgetown, and Syracuse.  In fact, as it currently stands, the top two Big East teams will probably end up in the open spots in Dayton and Philly, with the other Big East seeds being sent out west somewhere.

To be in KC, our biggest competition are K-State, Ok St., and CSU.

We're also currently seeded ahead of the Badgers, Gophers, and Butler, who also have similar geographic preferences to MU--if any of those teams slide in front of us. 

All told, I did not expect that we'd even be sniffing a top 4 seed this year, so pretty great to be able to dream about this in late February.  Still a lot of basketball to be played, but this gives us something to think about, and some idea of who to be cheering against to grab a good spot.

[77ncaachamps]

:crossing fingers for San Jose:

[Mufflers]

I wonder if a company like UPS could write an algorithm that would figure out the best locations for games based on predetermined rules on pod protection.  Seems like something the NCAA should do.

[MUMountin]

I wonder if a company like UPS could write an algorithm that would figure out the best locations for games based on predetermined rules on pod protection.  Seems like something the NCAA should do.

I'm sure that you could, although I don't think that the committee necessarily uses hard and fast rules.  I think that they may play around with things a little bit to try to keep as many of those top seeds close to home as possible--see my discussion about Miami and Florida above.  This year, it might make sense to send both of those teams to Austin, since it is only marginally further than for them to go to Lexington, Dayton, etc., but opens up a lot of possibility for the glut of B1G and Big East teams that are vying for the midwest locations.

A straight algorithm would not allow for that sort of flexibility. 

[jsglow]

No doubt they move teams around.  The goal is to make it work overall for the benefit of all and to maximize overall attendance.

[damuts222]

It's totally dependent on who makes it into the tournament, where the tournament sites are and what seed teams are.  I think past the top 4 seeded teams in each bracket there isn't as much thought put into it as we think.  Its about what's fair matchup wise.  The top 5 seed gets the worst 12 etc.

[slack00]

All else equal, I wouldn't be surprised to see Miami in Dayton especially if they're a 1 seed.  Having one of the play-in game winners play against them without leaving town is something I could see the committee doing.

[MUMountin]

It's totally dependent on who makes it into the tournament, where the tournament sites are and what seed teams are.  I think past the top 4 seeded teams in each bracket there isn't as much thought put into it as we think.  Its about what's fair matchup wise.  The top 5 seed gets the worst 12 etc.

That's right--teams seeded 5-16 do not receive geographic consideration when being placed (other than not being able to play at an arena if they are the "host")--for better or worse.  That's why my OP only comes into play if we are a 4 seed or higher.  Lower than that, we could end up anywhere.

[ChicosBailBonds]

:crossing fingers for San Jose:

Hope it turns out better than our last trip there....that flight home sucked after the Washington game.

[Mufflers]

I'm sure that you could, although I don't think that the committee necessarily uses hard and fast rules.  I think that they may play around with things a little bit to try to keep as many of those top seeds close to home as possible--see my discussion about Miami and Florida above.  This year, it might make sense to send both of those teams to Austin, since it is only marginally further than for them to go to Lexington, Dayton, etc., but opens up a lot of possibility for the glut of B1G and Big East teams that are vying for the midwest locations.

A straight algorithm would not allow for that sort of flexibility. 

I'm sure they could write an algorithm with the type of "flexibility" you're talking about by weighting rules/criteria rather than having absolute rules.  For example, in the case of Miami and Florida, it would calculate the differential between their location possibilities and divide by the distance to their nearest location and determine the closest location has little marginal value.

[hoyasincebirth]

Bloomington is close to Dayton than Lexington and Louisville is closer to Lexington than it is to Dayton. So you have those two flipped.

[MUMountin]

Bloomington is close to Dayton than Lexington and Louisville is closer to Lexington than it is to Dayton. So you have those two flipped.

Admittedly, I didn't double check my distances--I took them all from here: http://www.crashingthedance.com/distance.php. 

It looks to me like Bloomington is almost equidistant as the crow flies to Dayton/Lexington, but it is a little shorter between Bloomington and Dayton in terms of driving.

The reason that I had Louisville penciled in to Dayton was because I expected that two teams ahead of them would have that as their preference.  Even if Indiana is placed in Dayton, the second of the Florida teams might be placed in Lexington, which is the closest site to them (see my discussion of that above). 

One issue that I'm still uncertain of is how the committee actually looks at distance--whether they measure it as the crow flies, or driving distance.  Milwaukee is much closer to Auburn Hills than Dayton as the crow flies, but driving distance, they are about equal.

So, I should have included a disclaimer above that this was not entirely scientific--but more a way to start thinking about possible locations, and who MU might be fighting with to land close to home.   

[muwarrior69]

:crossing fingers for San Jose:

No need to cross your fingers. It seem we're always on the west coast. When was the last time were in the East or South?

[muarmy81]

No need to cross your fingers. It seem we're always on the west coast. When was the last time were in the East or South?

Last 2 years we spent the first 2 weekends in Cleveland and Louisville.  Are those not considered East?

[77ncaachamps]

Hope it turns out better than our last trip there....that flight home sucked after the Washington game.

I was there. Uncanny how many purple shirts showed up for that game.
I still can hear the crowd go wild after Pondexter hit the close shot and picture Lazar collapse to the ground after the half-court heave-ho.

I sat stunned for the rest of the evening and week.

TWO times I've seen them in CA (Stanford winning at the "buzzer" was the other). TWO losses.

I hope they reverse it!

No need to cross your fingers. It seem we're always on the west coast. When was the last time were in the East or South?

No clue. But it sure helps to drive 5 hours south or stay at home instead of flying.

[wardle2wade]

I posted this in the bracketology thread, but probably more relevant here......

Something I've been curious about is how the committe will handle San Jose being a host just three years ago.  This is very rare for a city to host 1st/2nd round games that recently... Not sure if it's ever been done actually just three years out.  Of the 8 teams in 2010 who played at the Shark Tank, only MU, Butler, and New Mexico are relevant to this year's tourney.

With eight sites to pick from (including unpopular Austin and SLC), I would imagine the committee would avoid putting MU, Butler, or NM in SJ this year. 

Ironically, Lunardi has two of these team slotted in SJ in today's bracketology... Butler and Marquette.  Highly doubt that'll happen.

[MUMountin]

Something I've been curious about is how the committe will handle San Jose being a host just three years ago.  This is very rare for a city to host 1st/2nd round games that recently... Not sure if it's ever been done actually just three years out.  Of the 8 teams in 2010 who played at the Shark Tank, only MU, Butler, and New Mexico are relevant to this year's tourney.

With eight sites to pick from (including unpopular Austin and SLC), I would imagine the committee would avoid putting MU, Butler, or NM in SJ this year. 

Hadn't thought about that.  Without looking it up, though--3 years doesn't seem like a short time.  Seems like there are a few locations that host 1st/2nd games on close to that sort of timeline. 

And, I'm not sure if the committee actually takes into consideration where teams have been sent before--with all of the other factors, I can't imagine that would have much of an impact. 

Is there a particular reason we shouldn't be sent back there?  Just the fact that it is so far away?

[wardle2wade]

Hadn't thought about that.  Without looking it up, though--3 years doesn't seem like a short time.  Seems like there are a few locations that host 1st/2nd games on close to that sort of timeline. 

And, I'm not sure if the committee actually takes into consideration where teams have been sent before--with all of the other factors, I can't imagine that would have much of an impact. 

Is there a particular reason we shouldn't be sent back therke?  Just the fact that it is so far away?

Just checked.. A city has hosted teice in three years for opening weekend, but it's in markets with a big home-pod audience (NC, east coast cities) where teams WANT to be out there and earn the right to be there.  I'd be willing to bet no team got assigned there twice in three years UNLESS it helped them... ie UNC/Duke being Greensboro.  San Jose hosting 2010 and 2013 is an anomaly for a market lacking a blueblood NCAA fanbase. 

NCAA supposedly tries to be cognizant when they assign schools to distant locations.  They know they have to do it, but I doubt they'll do assign the same team to the same city twice... ESPECIALLY when the team has been a higher seed both times. MU2010 was a 6th seed, MU2013 is 3-5 seed.  I would hope somewhere in their spreadsheets, algorhythms, or paperwork someone would see that and say, "how about SLC instead?"  Maybe a flag pops up on their computer program which says "fyi, this school played here three years ago."

Another reason against "MU to SJ" is the committe could just as easily send Marquette to SLC or Austin and receive the desired effect.  Both SLC and Austin (like SJ) lack the no-brainer top 4seed schools near them (like MSU at Auburn Hills), so they need to fill those ones just as bad.

Personally, I feel Gonzaga will be assigned to San Jose leaving only one "top 4 seed" slot open there decreasing the odds greatly. ((Yes, I believe MU will be a top 4 seed.))

Is it possible MU still gets assigned to SJ?  Sure.  But with so many things going against it, I'd say it's highly unlikely.

Disclaimer... I feel strongly about this, because I go wherever MU gets assigned every year since the Wade administration.  Doing this right economically requires planning ahead of time prior to Selection Sunday (hotels, potential flights)... Thus I've become acutely aware of what cities host the opening weekend games and I play the pod guessing game annually  I understand how Rainman this is.

[wardle2wade]

A lot will happen over the next couple weeks, but if I had to put money on it today... 

I'd say MU gets shipped to Austin/KC/SLC in the Indianapolis region.  The committee seems to reward the "top 4 seed" that they ship off with a good regional site.  It would be pretty wild to get IU as the 4 seed in Indy.  IU would have to get past 9th seeded SLU of course first.

[jsglow]

Disclaimer... I feel strongly about this, because I go wherever MU gets assigned every year since the Wade administration.  Doing this right economically requires planning ahead of time prior to Selection Sunday (hotels, potential flights)... Thus I've become acutely aware of what cities host the opening weekend games and I play the pod guessing game annually  I understand how Rainman this is.

Not Rainman at all in my mind.  How do you handle the flight situation?  Hotels on Hotwire are easy.  Please don't tell me I'd need to book SWA tickets to each theoretical destination and then 'bank' the unused ones via cancellation.  That seems uber expensive and while warriorchick and I fly a fair amount, that would be a lot of money tied up.

[wardle2wade]

Not Rainman at all in my mind.  How do you handle the flight situation?  Hotels on Hotwire are easy.  Please don't tell me I'd need to book SWA tickets to each theoretical destination and then 'bank' the unused ones via cancellation.  That seems uber expensive and while warriorchick and I fly a fair amount, that would be a lot of money tied up.

Great question... I used to be able to book cheap SW flights when available and sell the trsvel bank to friends/brother over the next year.  Unfortunately they changed the rules and now it has to be you flying with that travel bank.  As much as I travel, I dont use SW enough to do it.

Having status on airlines has helped me... Summit with Frontier has no change/cancel fees, but Frontier has since dropped the Milwaukee market like Crean to James Manchild Matthews. 

What I recommend is having routes/flights picked out prior to selection sunday... As soon as Marquette's name is called, book your flight before the masses do the same.   Obviously keep Ohare open as it will open up 100x more routes.

[77ncaachamps]

I was about to jump on some people about "1st/2nd rounds" in San Jose because my tickets say 2nd/3rd.

Then I realized the idiotic NCAA did a switcheroo on the names.

Respective to SJ getting the Tourney within three years, it's pretty simple why: lots of disposable income in the Bay Area.

[ChicosBailBonds]

I was there. Uncanny how many purple shirts showed up for that game.
I still can hear the crowd go wild after Pondexter hit the close shot and picture Lazar collapse to the ground after the half-court heave-ho.

I sat stunned for the rest of the evening and week.

TWO times I've seen them in CA (Stanford winning at the "buzzer" was the other). TWO losses.

I hope they reverse it!

No clue. But it sure helps to drive 5 hours south or stay at home instead of flying.

Yup.  I was there for San Diego, Anaheim, and San Jose.  All three losses down to the wire.  OT for Stanford, though I wasn't expecting to win that game as they were the 3 seed and playing a California team in California.  The loss to Alabama...Felix...I was right in line for the Novak shot, thought it was buried but it came up short.  The Washington game...such a huge lead and you can just see it eroding minute after minute after minute.  UGH.

[4everwarriors]

Not Rainman at all in my mind.  How do you handle the flight situation?  Hotels on Hotwire are easy.  Please don't tell me I'd need to book SWA tickets to each theoretical destination and then 'bank' the unused ones via cancellation.  That seems uber expensive and while warriorchick and I fly a fair amount, that would be a lot of money tied up.

Nah, just buy SWA Business Select. A few extra scheckles, but when you cancel real bread is refunded.

[jsglow]

Yup.  I was there for San Diego, Anaheim, and San Jose.  All three losses down to the wire.  OT for Stanford, though I wasn't expecting to win that game as they were the 3 seed and playing a California team in California.  The loss to Alabama...Felix...I was right in line for the Novak shot, thought it was buried but it came up short.  The Washington game...such a huge lead and you can just see it eroding minute after minute after minute.  UGH.

The couch for you Chicos!