Will Noel's Injury Change NBA Rules?

[warriorchick]

Colt McCoy is the first name that popped into my head while reading this thread.  I'm sure there have been others.  The trick is obviously having the capital to foot the premiums for a year.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=4356869

From the article: 

"The premium is astronomical," said Brad McCoy. "But the payback in the event of a catastrophe puts the monetary value there. We felt it was the prudent thing to do."

Point proven.  99% of the players would have no way to legally obtain this insurance.  Colt is just lucky he has a rich Texas daddy.

[setyoursightsnorth]

Why does this argument only apply to basketball? When Marcus Lattimore completely destroyed his knee in every sense of the word, no one was calling for a rule change. Football players have to wait 2 years. I can see basketball doing that too. I just don't understand why this is such a big deal for basketball when literally the same exact thing happened in football.

[Pakuni]

Why does this argument only apply to basketball? When Marcus Lattimore completely destroyed his knee in every sense of the word, no one was calling for a rule change. Football players have to wait 2 years 3 years. I can see basketball doing that too. I just don't understand why this is such a big deal for basketball when literally the same exact thing happened in football.

Fixed.
It was somewhat discussed when Lattimore was injured, but more in the vein of paying athletes than how soon they could turn pro.
And it's fair to point out that there are good reasons to keep kids from jumping from high school to the NFL that don't exist when talking about a similar jump to the NBA.

[The Process]

Noel could purchased an insurance policy to protect him in case of injury.

Exactly.  He's insured:

John Calipari ‏@UKCoachCalipari

The good news is he is insured, so he would have been fine even if the injury would have been worse.

[MU82]

I think there are sort of 2 conversations going on:

From a private business perspective, the NBA's rule is wise, and honestly, they should make it 2 or 3 years. Why not let guys develop in their skills in college and build a fan following before they enter the NBA? A TON of entry level jobs require a college degree, even if said degree isn't really applicable to the job role. The NBA is doing the same thing.

David Stern has repeatedly said he would like the rule to be 2 years at least. But he does not have the authority to unilaterally make it so. This is a collectively bargained issue. The NBAPA didn't want it to be 2 years and owners did not feel strongly enough about it to scuttle a CBA that almost didn't happen.

There is not enough feeling about this issue by either side to reopen the CBA. So we can keep this thread going for 100 more pages and every blogger on every Web site and every columnist at every newspaper can pontificate about it ...

But it ain't gonna change.

[Pakuni]

Apparently the NCAA already makes up to $5 million in career-ending injury insurance available and premiums can be financed through a low-interest loan.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/02/13/ncaa-makes-5-million-in-insurance-availabl/

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

David Stern has repeatedly said he would like the rule to be 2 years at least. But he does not have the authority to unilaterally make it so. This is a collectively bargained issue. The NBAPA didn't want it to be 2 years and owners did not feel strongly enough about it to scuttle a CBA that almost didn't happen.

There is not enough feeling about this issue by either side to reopen the CBA. So we can keep this thread going for 100 more pages and every blogger on every Web site and every columnist at every newspaper can pontificate about it ...

But it ain't gonna change.

Well, in my mind, the only way it would change would be to make the college rule longer.

I envision a lot of headaches and not a lot to gain by the NBA starting a true minor league.

However, it would be interesting if they made the draft 3 rounds, and could draft kids out of highschool and retain their rights until the player comes out of school. Happens a lot in hockey. In fact, guys turn pro right after the college season and go right into the AHL/NHL.

Imagine this: A player goes through March madness and emerges as a star. His rights are already owned by a middle of the pack NBA team. He immediately goes to that team and leads them deep into the playoffs.

ESPN would KILL for a story like that.

Also, this type of system might put more of an emphasis of smart drafting and development vs signing free agents. It might help some small market teams if they get the timing right.

With all of this said, it introduces NBA scouts into High Schools again, which I know the NBA wasn't in love with. Plus, we know college ball can already be a little sleezy. Add in agents trying to get kids to sign, and see what happens.

[Dish]

Couldn't disagree more. As warriorchick brought up - you're telling an 18 year old to buy insurance on an asset he isnt permitted to make the money on that would be required to pay the premium. Far from being end of story, it's a non-starter.

Umm, you realize he was insured, right? Like I said, end of story, he was smart enough to get himself insured, very smart.

[honkytonk]

The NBA pushed for 2 years when the last CBA was negotiated. The players' union pushed for no limit. They "settled" for the one year rule. Standard negotiating procedure. The NBA KNEW they werent going to get 2 years. Thats fine.

Noel's injury shouldnt change anything. At least I hope not. Any rule change would be nothing more than a knee-jerk reaction to ONE player's injury.

Replay in baseball took more than one foul ball. The age limit in the nba took more than one high school bust that got drafted. The NFL's player safety initiatives took a hell of a lot more than one players' health record. Nothing will change because one player got hurt.

[swoopem]

Jeff Goodman tweeted that he's talked to a few NBA GMs today and they still think he'll get drafted anywhere from 1-5 if he leaves early

[Tugg Speedman]

Noel is more likely to go now - don't want to risk further injury when there are millions on the table. Poythress and Goodwin are gone too. I believe they also have 1-2 walk-ons who were given schollies for this season.

As was noted above, Noels has an ACL tear.  That is a year to recover (see Derek Rose).  So if you draft him as is, without any workouts, it is a pure guess as to how good an NBA player he might be.  Maybe starts playing for you around the all-star break next year.  

If he was a top 5 draft pick before the injury (and maybe #1), what is he now?  mid round 1?  Lower round 1?  Still top 5?  Still a potential #1?


Remember the Illini guard Dee Brown?  He lead them to a final four and then broke his foot in pre-draft camp.  Opted to return to UofI for another year.

Will Noel consider doing the same?  Come back to UK next year for the final 10 games and the tourney and then into the draft?  Might mean more money if he can move up 10 to 15 draft spots.

[honkytonk]

Jeff Goodman tweeted that he's talked to a few NBA GMs today and they still think he'll get drafted anywhere from 1-5 if he leaves early

Of course he will. Now, maybe Im surprised he would still go in the top 5...but I fully expect that he is still a lottery pick. Just because he got hurt doesnt mean that the draft this June suddenly became strong in terms of immediate impact talent. Noel was going to take time to develop anyways; he is very limited offensively.

Its strange to me that some people think he might actually come back to college for another year. Why? ....To potentially get injured again without a guaranteed NBA contract? LOL.

[keefe]

Hey hey hey ... ancient aliens only built the pyramids.  They brought humans to their planet and trained them to build everything else.

Get your facts straight!

Wrong. The aliens mated with humans, thereby injecting their superior genetics into the human DNA pool. Through that magnanimous act came such wonders as the Great Wall of China, the Taj Mahal, the Panama Canal, the Astrodome, single malt scotch, Cuban-produced Cohibas, bratwurst, and thong underwear.

Get your facts straight!!

[Tugg Speedman]

Wrong. The aliens mated with humans, thereby injecting their superior genetics into the human DNA pool. Through that magnanimous act came such wonders as the Great Wall of China, the Taj Mahal, the Panama Canal, the Astrodome, single malt scotch, Cuban-produced Cohibas, bratwurst, and thong underwear.

Get your facts straight!!

Can any of those Alien/Human hybrids make it past the NCAA clearinghouse to give MU a better outside shooting presence?
 

[MU82]

As was noted above, Noels has an ACL tear.  That is a year to recover (see Derek Rose).  So if you draft him as is, without any workouts, it is a pure guess as to how good an NBA player he might be.  Maybe starts playing for you around the all-star break next year.  

If he was a top 5 draft pick before the injury (and maybe #1), what is he now?  mid round 1?  Lower round 1?  Still top 5?  Still a potential #1?


Remember the Illini guard Dee Brown?  He lead them to a final four and then broke his foot in pre-draft camp.  Opted to return to UofI for another year.

Will Noel consider doing the same?  Come back to UK next year for the final 10 games and the tourney and then into the draft?  Might mean more money if he can move up 10 to 15 draft spots.

A couple things here ...

Rose's injury was torn ACL and MCL. Pretty big difference. It won't be easy for Noel, and I certainly don't know about either his work habits or the rest of his health, but lots of guys come back from torn ACL in less than a year. Adrian Peterson came back in much less than a year and almost set the NFL rushing record, for cripe's sake.

If, indeed, it's "just" a torn ACL, he still will be a top-5 pick, probably still has a shot at going No. 1.

Dee Brown? Please. He never was first-round material. He was a 6-foot (very generously listed) shooting guard with a mediocre jumper (42% overall, 36% arc) and the worst finishing touch around the rim I have ever seen in a supposed star. The best thing to happen to him was that injury because it forced him to return for his senior season, get his degree and let him prove he could play PG. That at least helped him get drafted in the second round and hang around the NBA for a couple of years.

If you're going to compare Noel to an injured guard, Kyrie Irving is a much better comparison. Foot injury limited him to 11 games at Duke, he still went pro and he still was the No. 1 overall pick. Not a perfect comparison, though, because his foot injury probably wasn't considered as serious as Noel's knee injury.

[Pakuni]

As was noted above, Noels has an ACL tear.  That is a year to recover (see Derek Rose).  So if you draft him as is, without any workouts, it is a pure guess as to how good an NBA player he might be.  Maybe starts playing for you around the all-star break next year.  

If he was a top 5 draft pick before the injury (and maybe #1), what is he now?  mid round 1?  Lower round 1?  Still top 5?  Still a potential #1?

See what Goodman reported above. An ACL tear no longer is seen as a career-ending, or even necessarily career-altering (other than missed time) injury. Adrian Peterson just won the NFL MVP award and nearly set the league's rushing record less than a year after suffering an ACL tear.

[keefe]

So Lehman Brothers is, er, uh, WAS, a "little" bank?

They were so rapacious that it was impossible to overlook their excesses. Had they been more 'subdued' in developing new products for their home mortgage product line they would have been bailed out.

I saw them in action in the Soros-triggered Asian currency crisis in the late '90's. It started with a run on the Thai Baht, spread to the Korean Won and then ripped through ASEAN with a vengeance. The ID Rupiah went from Rp2,000:USD1 to Rp20,000:USD1 within 3 months. A correction was necessary but to that degree? The resulting liquidity crisis triggered demand for hard currency which put virtually every asset in SE Asia (ex- Malaysia) into play. GE Cap was working diligently with IMF & World Bank to restructure debt but a couple firms, with Lehman in the vanguard, were undermining those efforts through predatory practices. Steven Marks and I met with the head of Lehman at the Mercantile Club in Jakarta and asked for them to back off to give some of the reforms a chance to take effect. Soharto had already been removed from power and we had recovered almost all of the assets that had been controlled by the former First Family. Lehman basically wanted a check for $250MM in exchange for them staying out of Indonesia. You had a nation of 220 million flat on its back and these guys wanted only to stick the knife deeper. Remember that Lehman wasn't a corporation; it was a partnership model that umbrella branded hundreds of individual businesses. Still, when they went tits up in '08 I was in Iraq and I had the fighter doc issue me a snort of medicinal scotch to celebrate their demise. Biggest cock suckers I have ever met.

[keefe]

Can any of those Alien/Human hybrids make it past the NCAA clearinghouse to give MU a better outside shooting presence?
 

After inventing the thong they have nothing left to give and are now struggling with the SAT

[Tugg Speedman]

If you're going to compare Noel to an injured guard, Kyrie Irving is a much better comparison. Foot injury limited him to 11 games at Duke, he still went pro and he still was the No. 1 overall pick. Not a perfect comparison, though, because his foot injury probably wasn't considered as serious as Noel's knee injury.

Irving was injured at the beginning of the season.  He managed to return during the tourney and scored 28 points in his last game for the Blue Devils.  The point is he was healed and able to workout and run drills for teams so they could judge his physical abilities.

Noel will barely be able to walk properly by the time workouts start in April.  Teams will not be able to assess first hand his physical abilities.   That makes him a risk in that you're drafting an unknown ... unless you want to call Calpari and believe everything he tells you.

What Adrian Peterson did was nothing short of a medical miracle.  When did his recovery period become the standard?

Saying Peterson is the standard is liking saying all MU grads that do not make more than $1 million/year are losers.

[77ncaachamps]

Changing the NBA rule just for Noels would be, well, a bad knee-jerk reaction.

[ChicosBailBonds]

As was noted above, Noels has an ACL tear.  That is a year to recover (see Derek Rose).  So if you draft him as is, without any workouts, it is a pure guess as to how good an NBA player he might be.  Maybe starts playing for you around the all-star break next year.  

Not always.  ACL tear can have a recovery less than that.  Depends on severity of injury and what else was injured. 

[ChicosBailBonds]

Changing the NBA rule just for Noels would be, well, a bad knee-jerk reaction.

That's often the remedy for some...until they realize the law of unintended consequences and then screw it up even more.  It's an American tradition.

[RushmoreAcademy]

 
If he was a top 5 draft pick before the injury (and maybe #1), what is he now?  mid round 1?  Lower round 1?  Still top 5?  Still a potential #1?

My thought would be that it wouldn't change his draft number too much.   With the layout of the NBA right now, there is no quick turn around for the teams that will be picking that high, and not having him right away for his rookie season won't be a huge deterrent.
Some good NBA players who recovered well from ACL tears.... Kyle Lowery, David West, Al Jefferson, Jamal Crawford.

[MerrittsMustache]

My thought would be that it wouldn't change his draft number too much.   With the layout of the NBA right now, there is no quick turn around for the teams that will be picking that high, and not having him right away for his rookie season won't be a huge deterrent.
Some good NBA players who recovered well from ACL tears.... Kyle Lowery, David West, Al Jefferson, Jamal Crawford.

Agreed. He'll still go top 5, likely top 3. A vast majority of the time, when a team drafts a one-and-done guy, they're not expecting any significant contributions for 2-3 years anyway, especially from a big man. He's 19-years-old and if a team believes that he really is going to be the next Mutombo or Parish or whatever great he's being compared to, it'll be worth the wait.

[Tugg Speedman]

‏@darrenrovell
Source: Nerlens Noel has a $10 million permanent total disability policy thru Lloyd's of London. Would have to be career ending to collect.

@darrenrovell
NCAA will only loan high-profile student-athletes premiums up to $5M, but if you go outside the NCAA, you can get the $10M that Noel did.

@darrenrovell
Noel's $10M insurance policy would cover his first 3 years of NBA earnings, since $ is tax free. Would have to never play again.