How many games can MU lose and stay in the top 4 in the Big East?

[Marqevans]

If we lose 2 more games we could fall out of the top 4 and miss the double bye.

[MU B2002]

So does that mean the answer is 2? Or are we not supposed to guess, since you already answered.

[BM1090]

No chance. At 14-4, there is a better chance we win the conference than finish outside of the top 4

[Marqevans]

Not sure what the tie-breakers are after head to head but  a bad loss to Georgetown and a loss to ND and we would lose tie breakers to Louisville, ND, and probably Georgetown.

[wardle2wade]

If we lose 2 more games we could fall out of the top 4 and miss the double bye.

Not possible.  If we were to go 14-4, we are guaranteed for a double-bye.  Look at the standings and notice that 5 teams have 4 losses already... 2 would need to go undefeated the rest of the way which will never happen.

More likely, we could lose 4 more games and still get the double-bye.

[NotAnAlum]

Last year Cinc got a double bye at 12-6 .  I expect this year will be the same with the line at 12-6 and a lot depending on who our 4 losses (assuming its us) come to.  Beat Pitt and ND and we have a very good chance of a double bye even at 12-6.

[wardle2wade]

Not sure what the tie-breakers are after head to head but  a bad loss to Georgetown and a loss to ND and we would lose tie breakers to Louisville, ND, and probably Georgetown.

So if we were to lose only 2 more games (let's say Gtown and ND like you said), it is literally not possible to miss the double-bye.

In your scenario, it means that we beat St Johns and Pitt eliminating them from the double-bye at 5 losses.  It also means we would have beat Cuse giving them 3 losses (one more loss for Cuse the rest of the season bumps us ahead of them with the tiebreaker).  Moreover, Uconn doesnt make the tourney even if they went undefeated the rest of the way.

You are also then assuming that Louisville and Notre Dame go undefeated the rest of the season... Besides the fact that this is incredibly impossibly unlikely, it's actually not even possible since they play each other the last game of the season.

Btw - We'd also likely have the tiebreaker over Georgetown in your scenario... since MU-Gtown would have split, we'd get the tie since we beat the highest ranked team (Syracuse).

I can't believe I actually spelled out the logic behind this.

If we only lose two more games (and beat Syracuse), we'll most likely win the Big East this year.

[NavinRJohnson]

Go 2-1 in the remaining home games Pitt, ND, and SYr) , and it is probably a safe bet they'll be in the top 4. Plenty of winnable road games to make that happen - 3-2 in those games (13-5 overall) should be good enough. At 12-6 it gets a little tougher, but by no means out of  the question, if the wins come against the right teams for tie breaking purposes.

[chapman]

If we win both games this week you can mail it in.  Would be 2 up on GT, 3 on Pitt with tiebreakers over each.  The Pitt game may actually be bigger since their remaining schedule isn't too bad, GT still plays Syracuse twice.  

[tower912]

How about changing the question to...how many games does MU need to win to get another 3 seed?

[boyonthedock]

How about changing the question to...how many games does MU need to win to get another 3 seed?

3 seed? at least 5 more wins in the regular season.

[MerrittsMustache]

Who cares about the double-bye? MU got the double-bye last year and how'd that work out?

[bilsu]

I would say three more losses puts the double bye at risk, but is probably still good for a double bye. I also think we lose more than 3 our of the next 8 games. Two more wins clinches a single bye.

[MUCam]

Over the last five years (which is when 18 game schedule began):

5 losses or less in conference play has equaled double bye without need for tie-breakers.

6 losses has, on two occasions, led to a double bye with tie-breakers. Obviously, that means 6 losses also left some team(s) out of the double bye.

So, it would be safe to assume that if the future holds to history, 13 wins and 5 losses is a near sure fire way to earn a double bye. 12-6 is no sure bet, but might still be a possibility.

[T-Bone]

Could ask this little fella.

[MUDPT]

6 losses gets us the bye.  Cincy really dug themselves a hole with two losses in toss up games last week (@ Providence and home to Pitt). 

MU has a big week, winning both gives tiebreakers over Georgetown and Pitt. 

Georgetown also has a big week, playing us and at Cincy Friday.

[brewcity77]

1 or fewer losses: Win the conference
2 losses: Top-3 at worst
3-4 losses: Double-bye
5-6 losses: Single-bye
7+ losses: Not going to happen

[mug644]

Who cares about the double-bye? MU got the double-bye last year and how'd that work out?

Some folks might say we got rested enough to make the Sweet 16. Others like to watch MU play, and win.

[wardle2wade]

1 or fewer losses: Win the conference
2 losses: Top-3 at worst
3-4 losses: Double-bye
5-6 losses: Single-bye
7+ losses: Not going to happen

Brew - Yep, you're exactly right at the above.

If MU only gets two more losses (14-4), they are guaranteed top-3 and in great shape for at least 2nd.  Reason being is Cuse still plays Georgetown twice and Cuse also plays Louisville.  The carnage from those three games should be just enough damage.  Louisville vs Notre Dame really helps our cause too.

Worst case "two more loss" scenario is probably MU loses to Gtown and Syracuse.  But even then, Cuse/Gtown/Lou each have to win-out to knock a 14-4 MU from 2nd to 3rd (not including Lou@Cuse, Cuse@Gtown, Gtown@Cuse).

I'm being captain obvious here... but if MU wins both this week, we have major separation from the pack.  Long way to go, but it's great that MU has put themselves in this position.