Andy Katz says Kentucky is a bubble team

[Tugg Speedman]

Said this week's game against Ole Miss is critical for Kentucky as they need a marquee win.

Kentucky is 13-6 (4 -2).  RPI is 62.  A loss against Ole Miss and they are in deep trouble.

Seems that statement was impossible to fathom a year ago, or even three months ago.

[🏀]

Not shocked.

Kentucky cannot sustain success with that amount of yearly turnover. It will be a very different team every year. Cal did an incredible job last year, and will likely pull it off again in the near future. The downside is they risk being a bubble/NIT team if the team doesn't come together.

That being said, I would take that success model any day.

[warriorchick]

How can anyone expect a collection of one-and-dones to act as a team?  No one who is planning to bolt for the NBA at the end of the season gives a rat's ass about how well the Kentucky Wildcats perform; he cares about how good he looks as an individual player to the pro scouts.  He is less likely, for example to pass to the guy who would have an easy layup; he would rather try the riskier shot that will put him on Sportscenter.

[GGGG]

How can anyone expect a collection of one-and-dones to act as a team?  No one who is planning to bolt for the NBA at the end of the season gives a rat's ass about how well the Kentucky Wildcats perform; he cares about how good he looks as an individual player to the pro scouts.  He is less likely, for example to pass to the guy who would have an easy layup; he would rather try the riskier shot that will put him on Sportscenter.

It worked last year. 

[Dr. Blackheart]

Last year was a mix of 2-4 year players with the one and dones with UK. I think that is the formula.  Kansas and Duke seem to do that formula well.  I think Kentucky is skewed too far to the one and dones this season and there are growing pains...like UNC a couple of seasons ago.

[Tugg Speedman]

How can anyone expect a collection of one-and-dones to act as a team?  No one who is planning to bolt for the NBA at the end of the season gives a rat's ass about how well the Kentucky Wildcats perform; he cares about how good he looks as an individual player to the pro scouts.  He is less likely, for example to pass to the guy who would have an easy layup; he would rather try the riskier shot that will put him on Sportscenter.

What does Cal do if some of them decide to stay one more year to increase their draft stock and Kentucky winds up massively oversigned?

Who does he run off?  The #1 player from last year that is a Freshman now (remember what Buzz says, you make your biggest jump between Freshman and Sophomore year) or the #1 High school player about to come in.

If he is put in a position to run some off, does that hurt his reputation.

[Lennys Tap]

How can anyone expect a collection of one-and-dones to act as a team?  No one who is planning to bolt for the NBA at the end of the season gives a rat's ass about how well the Kentucky Wildcats perform; he cares about how good he looks as an individual player to the pro scouts.  He is less likely, for example to pass to the guy who would have an easy layup; he would rather try the riskier shot that will put him on Sportscenter.

You think the pro scouts are more impressed with a guy who takes a "riskier shot" than someone who passes to his teammate for an open layup? That's crazy. Truth told, the better Kentucky does as a team the better the individuals on the team do in the draft.

[warriorchick]

You think the pro scouts are more impressed with a guy who takes a "riskier shot" than someone who passes to his teammate for an open layup? That's crazy. Truth told, the better Kentucky does as a team the better the individuals on the team do in the draft.

I am not saying the pro scouts would be impressed; I am saying the kid would THINK the pro scouts would be impressed.  You are talking about teenage boys here; most of whom have never had to play as a team because they have always been the best player on their team - by far. I am sure for many of them, their HS team's basic strategy was simply to pass the ball to him.

[slack00]

When I first read "Kentucky is a bubble team", I completely dismissed the idea.  But looking into the numbers they are absolutely in need of some good wins to solidify their position.  Check out these blind resumes:

Team A
RPI 62
Record 13-6
Road Neutral 3-4
Top 50 RPI 0-4
Top 100 RPI 2-6
Best Wins: RPI 65, RPI 79, RPI 115
Worst Losses: RPI 83, RPI 63, RPI 46

Team B
RPI 57
Record 12-7
Road Neutral 4-4
Top 50 RPI 0-5
Top 100 RPI 4-6
Best Wins: RPI 51, RPI 52, RPI 87
Worst Losses: RPI 273, RPI 51, RPI 46


I'm not trying to suggest that these two teams are equal or will end up equal, but it's amazing how similar these tournament resumes are.  Team A is Kentucky, Team B is Rutgers.  That's the kind of company Calipari and his team has right now.  There are never any "must win" games in January in college basketball, but tomorrow's game at Ole Miss is HUGE for them.

[Lennys Tap]

I am not saying the pro scouts would be impressed; I am saying the kid would THINK the pro scouts would be impressed.  You are talking about teenage boys here; most of whom have never had to play as a team because they have always been the best player on their team - by far. I am sure for many of them, their HS team's basic strategy was simply to pass the ball to him.

I don't much like Calipari (major slimeball) but he can coach, and if you don't play hard and play team basketball for him you don't play. UK guys get drafted high in the first round early in their careers by listening to Cal, not their AAU coach or someone in their entourage. And they know that upon arrival at UK. They're not struggling this year because  guys are hogging the ball or taking "risky" shots. They're just a little short on both talent and experience from last year.

[Tugg Speedman]

They're just a little short on both talent and experience from last year.

Who isn't a burger boy on Kentucky?  How can they be short of talent? 

Much like UNC this year, if Buzz had 7 burger boys and was not ranked, we'd be all over him even if they were 7 Freshman.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Prediction

Kentucky, UCLA, UNC will all make the NCAAs this year despite the drama by some posters earlier that they would be in the NIT.

[MuMark]

Not sure what is more bizarre....Kentucky being a bubble team or Kentucky needing a marquee win against "Ole Miss" of all teams .....................

[Tugg Speedman]

Prediction

Kentucky, UCLA, UNC will all make the NCAAs this year despite the drama by some posters earlier that they would be in the NIT.

The fact you need to make this prediction in late January speaks volumes to how far they have fallen.

And between these three schools they have, what 15, to 20 burger boys?  And none of them are ranked?

Like I said before, if Buzz had 7 burger boys and was not ranked, we would be rioting here .. even if they were all Freshman.  

All of them are having VERY bad years.  The second of the last three for UNC.

[MUMountin]

Prediction

Kentucky, UCLA, UNC will all make the NCAAs this year despite the drama by some posters earlier that they would be in the NIT.

This is probably right--a lot of the hand-wringing in the press right now is overdone, in my opinion.  I could imagine maybe one of the three not making it, but I doubt more than that.

Regardless, I don't think I want MU to be the 7 seed to any of these schools 10 seeds (or 8/9, etc.).

[MuMark]

UCLA isn't even in danger of not making it unless they collapse. RPI of 32...4 top 50 wins and only 1 bad loss.

Profile is more like a 6-7 seed then a bubble team.

[Tugg Speedman]

UCLA isn't even in danger of not making it unless they collapse. RPI of 32...4 top 50 wins and only 1 bad loss.
Profile is more like a 6-7 seed then a bubble team.

If Buzz landed Shabazz Mohammad and that was our stat line we would be going crazy here.

So let call it what is ... a terrible season for the Bruins. 

[martyconlonontherun]

The fact you need to make this prediction in late January speaks volumes to how far they have fallen.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_NCAA_Men's_Division_I_Basketball_Tournament
Ummm Kentucky just won the NC in the last year and will still make the tourney this year on a very bad year for them. Not sure how that is really hitting the bottom just because of 3 average months of bball.

When I first read "Kentucky is a bubble team", I completely dismissed the idea.  But looking into the numbers they are absolutely in need of some good wins to solidify their position.  Check out these blind resumes:

Team A


Team B

1. I would take Team A, though barely.
2. Team A is led by a bunch of freshmen still adjusting. They will peak in March. Team B doesn't have much upside.

[ChicosBailBonds]

The fact you need to make this prediction in late January speaks volumes to how far they have fallen.

And between these three schools they have, what 15, to 20 burger boys?  And none of them are ranked?

Like I said before, if Buzz had 7 burger boys and was not ranked, we would be rioting here .. even if they were all Freshman.  

All of them are having VERY bad years.  The second of the last three for UNC.

I would have happily made the same prediction last month.

Not sure the fascination with Burger Boys.  It's a political award for a number of players.  Where you decide to attend school has an impact, in my view, on whether you make it or not as a Burger Boy.

UCLA was ranked just last week and got knocked out.  They went into Arizona and smoked them in Tucson on Thursday.  Yes, they lost to ASU on Saturday, but they are doing fine.  They have a RPI of 30.  Young team, two of their best players are freshmen.  They are not having a VERY bad year.

North Carolina is at 37, ahead of Georgetown.  They are expected to finish 19-11.  Not a great year by their standards. They'll get in.

Kentucky is the tough one, and yes Katz is correct they are a bubble team.  Having said that, they are expected to finish 21-10 and 12-6 in conference.  Expected RPI finish of 45.8....if they do finish around there, they will get in.

[Lennys Tap]

Prediction

Kentucky, UCLA, UNC will all make the NCAAs this year despite the drama by some posters earlier that they would be in the NIT.

No offense, but you're not exactly out a limb. To me UCLA is nearly 100% and UNC well north of 90%. Kentucky is on the bubble now, but given their youth they should improve enough to get in rather easily.

I know you're an RPI guy, so let me make some off the wall predictions that fly in the face of what I consider to be almost worthless real time RPI:1.#16 Indiana will be seeded 3 or more lines higher than #7 New Mexico, #11 Minnesota and #14 Belmont 2.#24 Ohio St will also be seeded higher than than them. 3.#38 Georgetown, #46 Notre Dame and #47 Wisconsin (all ranked lower than UCLA and UNC) make the tournament and are seeded higher than mighty #33 Illinois (who very well may not make it).

[martyconlonontherun]

No offense, but you're not exactly out a limb. To me UCLA is nearly 100% and UNC well north of 90%. Kentucky is on the bubble now, but given their youth they should improve enough to get in rather easily.

I don't think he was saying he was going out on a limb. He's just contradicting everyone here thinking Kentucky is melting down.

[LloydMooresLegs]

While not a Blue Blood, Texas (9-9 with RPI of 140) will miss the NCAAs after 14 straight unless it wins its conference tourney. 

http://mcubed.net/ncaab/strkr64c.shtml

FWIW, MU with is ahead of Kentucky, UNC and UCLA (and Indiana), at least in that category.

[Golden Avalanche]

If Buzz landed Shabazz Mohammad and that was our stat line we would be going crazy here.

So let call it what is ... a terrible season for the Bruins. 

Dude, you're a clown.

[Tugg Speedman]

I don't think he was saying he was going out on a limb. He's just contradicting everyone here thinking Kentucky is melting down.

If Kentucky loses to Ole Miss tomorrow night, would it then be fair to say Kentucky is melting down?