fiscal cliff

[forgetful]

Money is never really taken out of circulation.
A dollar spent by a government agency is worth the same as a dollar spent by a Fortune 500 company is worth the same as a dollar spent a nonpofit organization is worth the same as a dollar spent by my family, etc.
One could reasonably and fairly argue that the dollar may be spent more efficiently - and therefore better economically - by a private interest rather than a public one, but it's not as if the money just vanishes.

Except the payroll tax holiday, essentially converted "savings (social security)" into current spending.  That current spending will go away.  But you raise a good point, any budget cuts also decreases overall spending and will affect the economy.

[GGGG]

Money is never really taken out of circulation.
A dollar spent by a government agency is worth the same as a dollar spent by a Fortune 500 company is worth the same as a dollar spent a nonpofit organization is worth the same as a dollar spent by my family, etc.
One could reasonably and fairly argue that the dollar may be spent more efficiently - and therefore better economically - by a private interest rather than a public one, but it's not as if the money just vanishes.

But the federal government is going to spend what it wants to spend anyway.

[ChicosBailBonds]

So, are you saying that because these people are politicians, it's impossible for them to not get the point?
I'd suggest that there is a scary large number of politicians out there who don't get the point, who are only far too happy to put their personal (read: electoral) interests ahead of the people they're supposed to represent.

I'm saying there are those that disagree with you and think it's a good idea to over the cliff.  Interestingly enough, people on both sides of the aisle.

Howard Dean (D)..."let's go over the cliff"   http://bigthink.com/think-tank/howard-dean-lets-go-over-the-fiscal-cliff

Robert Reich (D)...."let's FLY over the cliff"  http://www.salon.com/2012/12/26/lets_go_flying_over_the_fiscal_cliff/

Mark Levin (R) ..."let's go over the cliff"

NY Times Op ED.... http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/18/opinion/forget-the-warnings-lets-drive-over-the-fiscal-cliff.html?_r=0

http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2012-11-19/opinions/35505540_1_bush-tax-cuts-fiscal-cliff-tax-increases

There are any number of opinions from both sides that seem just fine with going over it, of course for vastly different reasons.  The left wants to raise taxes, gut the military, etc.  The right, wants to cut other spending in social programs, etc.  The argument, in the short term, is pain is necessary.  Honestly, I agree.  Too much kicking the can down the road.  If that means everyone's rates go up in the short term, then so be it.  Maybe that will finally get people pissed off enough at their elected leaders.  Or we can continue to be like California and a complete disaster. 

[Pakuni]

I'm saying there are those that disagree with you and think it's a good idea to over the cliff.  Interestingly enough, people on both sides of the aisle.

Howard Dean (D)..."let's go over the cliff"   http://bigthink.com/think-tank/howard-dean-lets-go-over-the-fiscal-cliff

Robert Reich (D)...."let's FLY over the cliff"  http://www.salon.com/2012/12/26/lets_go_flying_over_the_fiscal_cliff/

Mark Levin (R) ..."let's go over the cliff"

NY Times Op ED.... http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/18/opinion/forget-the-warnings-lets-drive-over-the-fiscal-cliff.html?_r=0

http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2012-11-19/opinions/35505540_1_bush-tax-cuts-fiscal-cliff-tax-increases

Couple of quick thoughts:

None of these really argue for going over the cliff as a solution, which was my point. Rather, they suggest that going over the cliff in the short term would cause such hardship that it would force us to solve our problems. Which was the point of establishing the cliff in the first place, in that the mere threat of those hardships - rather than their reality - would lead to real solutions.
And all say, in effect, "Go over the cliff, but  ..."

Reich, for example, only suggests going over the cliff only if coupled with middle class tax cuts.
Super says go over the cliff, but then restore middle-class tax cuts and moderate the defense cuts.
Theissen says "Go over the cliff" but only as a negotiating tactic for future talks.

Only Dean seems to suggest going over the cliff might be a good thing ... and is that the guy you really want to side with in this debate?

So, actually, they don't disagree with what I initially said .... no one who gets the point believed(s) the cliff was a solution. Rather, it was a great big stick to force the parties to compromise. Which, apparently, they cannot do.

Or we can continue to be like California and a complete disaster.  

Fallacy of false choice. It's not a choice between Cliff or California (or Greece or whichever example is preferred). There are many other options.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Yes, I too look forward to pulling my kids out of their school so they can attend the cr@ppy public school nearby, cancelling any family vacations and saving significantly less for retirement this year.
Hoo-effin'-ray.

Those of you hoping for the cliff completely miss the point of the cliff.
It was set up to be something so awful, such a lose-lose proposition that the politicians would be forced to compromise for a workable solution.
It was not set up as an alternative solution. It will not make things better, and never was established to make things better. It will make things worse.

It's like amputating your child's arm to deal with a hangnail because you and your wife can't agree over who should go fetch the nail clippers.

Well, fundamentally, I think most politicians make decisions that will get them re-elected, not what is actually best for the country.

With this in mind, I think they often fail to make tough decisions that will ultimately help the America, because that won't help them get re-elected.

The fiscal cliff is sort of a blanket excuse for the tough decisions to finally get made.

Time to take our medicine.

I wanted to buy a new boat this year, but I also want a viable US economy 20 years from now. We can't keep trying to spend our way out of trouble because it might hurt. Time to eat our vegetables. I don't have to like it. But, I believe it's necessary.

[Pakuni]

Well, fundamentally, I think most politicians make decisions that will get them re-elected, not what is actually best for the country.

With this in mind, I think they often fail to make tough decisions that will ultimately help the America, because that won't help them get re-elected.

The fiscal cliff is sort of a blanket excuse for the tough decisions to finally get made.

Time to take our medicine.

I wanted to buy a new boat this year, but I also want a viable US economy 20 years from now. We can't keep trying to spend our way out of trouble because it might hurt. Time to eat our vegetables. I don't have to like it. But, I believe it's necessary.

Again, you're mistaking the cliff for something that might solve the problem.
To the contrary, the cliff is likely to cause a double-dip recession, which would offset the impact of tax hikes and create the need for additional government spending.

You may believe it's necessary, but that puts you in very limited company. Most serious economists think it's unnecessary and a terrible idea.

http://money.cnn.com/2012/10/01/news/economy/fiscal-cliff-economists/index.html

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Again, you're mistaking the cliff for something that might solve the problem.
To the contrary, the cliff is likely to cause a double-dip recession, which would offset the impact of tax hikes and create the need for additional government spending.

You may believe it's necessary, but that puts you in very limited company. Most serious economists think it's unnecessary and a terrible idea.

http://money.cnn.com/2012/10/01/news/economy/fiscal-cliff-economists/index.html

Well, I think its necessary in that it can force some action and tough decisions.

I'm not an expert in economics, so I can't pretend to know all of the details of the fiscal cliff and the exact outcomes.

I'm more into politicians making the correct/tough decisions.

[Jay Bee]

Decent day, but nothing spectacular. Trying to decide what to do with my largest holding.. DECK. Hate owning any stock at the moment, but had to jump in on it last month at ~$30 with that lovely balance sheet.

DECK up 4.30% to $39.55 this morning. Get at your boy.

[77ncaachamps]

Or we can continue to be like California and a complete disaster. 

Respectfully, why don't you leave CA then?

[ChicosBailBonds]

Respectfully, why don't you leave CA then?

Mostly my wife, youngest of 9, all her siblings but one are here. All her nieces, nephews, etc.  But, I've already taken care of the next destination with a purchase outside the state.  She knows how badly I want out and each year she gets closer and closer to the same conclusion.  I won't miss it for a nanosecond.  It's an absolute shame what has happened to the place. 

21 years in a row now more leaving state than coming in...amazing.  What a shame, but not at all surprising.  Hopefully we are not far behind.  The latest round of taxes starting today will move even more out.  Nothing like having the highest taxes in the nation (starting today) and wondering what you get for it.

http://www.mymotherlode.com/news/local/1904483/Californians-Leaving-The-State.html

http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/12/11/15838671-california-exodus-as-thousands-quit-state-for-texas-ariz-elsewhere?lite

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/11/12/History-Suggests-More-Californians-Will-Flee-State-After-Recent-Tax-Increases

[GGGG]

Business takes me to the Reno/Minden area of Nevada every year.  One of the guys I meet with left the Sacramento area about five years ago, and his biggest regret is not leaving earlier.

[Jay Bee]

Mostly my wife, youngest of 9, all her siblings but one are here. All her nieces, nephews, etc.  But, I've already taken care of the next destination with a purchase outside the state. 

How many acres did you purchase in Bloomington?

[ChicosBailBonds]

How many acres did you purchase in Bloomington?

I don't need to purchase any there, I have a friend that lets me stay at his pad.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Business takes me to the Reno/Minden area of Nevada every year.  One of the guys I meet with left the Sacramento area about five years ago, and his biggest regret is not leaving earlier.

I can tell you countless stories like that.  Colorado, Arizona, Texas, etc.  It is truly amazing what a disaster this state is.  It is not even recognizable and pension liabilities to the tune of 1/4 of the nation's $2.2 trillion unfunded liabilities.  Think about that, we have 13% of the nation's population but 26% of the unfunded liabilities.   What's even more laughable is the politicians here are factoring the growth on the rate of return at 7.75%. LOL.  7.75%...these people are snorting so much magic dust.  They'll be lucky to get 4%.  We've had 4 cities go bankrupt so far, and it's just the tip of the iceburg. 

[augoman]

Agree, Chicos, tip of the iceberg.  My fear is that DC will decide to 'bail em out' at the rest of the country's expense.  Then, I suppose, Illinois, or whomever is next.  Seems the mindset is 'WTF, if you're already spending/printing money you don't have, why not a little more.'

[warriorchick]

I can tell you countless stories like that.  Colorado, Arizona, Texas, etc.  It is truly amazing what a disaster this state is.  It is not even recognizable and pension liabilities to the tune of 1/4 of the nation's $2.2 trillion unfunded liabilities.  Think about that, we have 13% of the nation's population but 26% of the unfunded liabilities.   What's even more laughable is the politicians here are factoring the growth on the rate of return at 7.75%. LOL.  7.75%...these people are snorting so much magic dust.  They'll be lucky to get 4%.  We've had 4 cities go bankrupt so far, and it's just the tip of the iceburg. 

Chicos, Illinois isn't too far behind CA. jsglow and I are bailing as soon as we retire (or semi-retire).  We have no ties here except for our jobs.

[4everwarriors]

See all you cats in Australia.

[NersEllenson]

Any coincidence that California and Illinois are consistently under Democratic "leadership," yet Texas is consistently under Republican leadership and has a thriving economy?

Hmm...but let's not let facts get in the way..

[reinko]

Any coincidence that California and Illinois are consistently under Democratic "leadership," yet Texas is consistently under Republican leadership and has a thriving economy?

Hmm...but let's not let facts get in the way..

Other facts:

http://m.nydailynews.com/1.1109193#bmb=1
http://money.cnn.com/2011/09/18/news/economy/poverty_perry_texas/index.htm
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/09/19/us/politics/who-doesnt-pay-federal-taxes.html
http://www.lung.org/assets/documents/publications/state-of-the-air/state-of-the-air-2011-report.pdf
http://healthyamericans.org/report/98/obseityratesbystate

If you are too lazy to read, your great state has one of the worst health care systems, highest poverty rates, some of the worst air to breathe in the country, your kids are fatter than most, and your state takes in more federal dollars than it pays, so enjoy MY tax dollars down there.

[ATL MU Warrior]

Any coincidence that California and Illinois are consistently under Democratic "leadership," yet Texas is consistently under Republican leadership and has a thriving economy?

Hmm...but let's not let facts get in the way..

Not sure Texas has a thriving economy but if they do it is for one reason -- Oil.  And your fearless leader named Rick Perry, if he is anything like what he came across during the Republican primaries, is the biggest empty suit on the planet...which is exactly what big oil wants.

Mods, go ahead and lock this now before it degenerates further.

Oh

[NersEllenson]

Not sure Texas has a thriving economy but if they do it is for one reason -- Oil.  And your fearless leader named Rick Perry, if he is anything like what he came across during the Republican primaries, is the biggest empty suit on the planet...which is exactly what big oil wants.

Mods, go ahead and lock this now before it degenerates further.

Oh

Pretty uninformed...oil...is just a fraction of the Texas economy...numerous Fortune 500 companies have relocated out of California to Texas...DFW is a high tech center, telecom, retail, medical...

Other facts:

http://m.nydailynews.com/1.1109193#bmb=1
http://money.cnn.com/2011/09/18/news/economy/poverty_perry_texas/index.htm
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/09/19/us/politics/who-doesnt-pay-federal-taxes.html
http://www.lung.org/assets/documents/publications/state-of-the-air/state-of-the-air-2011-report.pdf
http://healthyamericans.org/report/98/obseityratesbystate

If you are too lazy to read, your great state has one of the worst health care systems, highest poverty rates, some of the worst air to breathe in the country, your kids are fatter than most, and your state takes in more federal dollars than it pays, so enjoy MY tax dollars down there.


Fortunately for you, you had Mitt Romney running Massachusetts...otherwise Massachusetts could be lumped in with the rest of the depressed liberal states...

And..pretty sure Texas has WAY more first generation Americans than does Massachusetts, lots of illegals too....many of the same problems California and New York face..yet Texas is significantly better off than those 2 states.

But hey...enjoy freezing your ass off in Massachusetts paying ridiculous state income taxes/taxes in general.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Ironic timing.  Got a call about 20 minutes ago from one of my wife's sisters.  They are being transferred to Texas.  Her husband works for Chevron-Texaco, which was the largest employer here in California.  They just announced moving close to 1000 employees to Texas from California which now means they employee more in Texas than in California.

They live up in the Bay Area.  My daughter is distraught, as her cousin is moving out of state.  This is another nail in the coffin though for me, so I'm loving it on the inside.  My wife's closest sister, will be out of the state within 6 months.  One less reason (a HUGE one) to stick around.  At some point it will just be the public employees left, the tech and wine industry and not much else.  Sad, really is sad, but when you constantly send messages that corporations are evil, not wanted or not needed, you shouldn't be surprised when they leave.  Some day they'll learn, but not likely while I'm here.

http://www.calwatchdog.com/2012/12/21/california-encourages-business-flight/

[ChicosBailBonds]

See all you cats in Australia.

LOL.  I have a gal working for me right now with Aussie citizenship.  About 4 months ago I asked her what do I need to do to become an Aussie citizen...I was only half kidding.  Now I'm only 25% kidding.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Not sure Texas has a thriving economy but if they do it is for one reason -- Oil.  And your fearless leader named Rick Perry, if he is anything like what he came across during the Republican primaries, is the biggest empty suit on the planet...which is exactly what big oil wants.

Mods, go ahead and lock this now before it degenerates further.

Oh

You need to get out more often. Texas is a lot more than big oil.  The sad part is that California has a ton of oil deposits, it's what I grew around as my dad was a petroleum geologist for Getty and Unocal here in Calif.  But they've made it so difficult out here, companies are leaving.  That's a nice broad brush comment about what Big Oil wants, but it's also more than a bit insincere and based on boogeyman stories dreamed up.

[Hards Alumni]

Well this WAS a reasonable thread.  Not shocked to see a couple of ideologues take it off course.