Kenpom: Marquette 32

[brewcity77]

I think we're underrated, but we have plenty of chances early to boost that up. Wisconsin looks overrated again, though I'm sure Pomeroy's system helps them out again. All of the Big East teams are top-100.

Non-con and Maui opponents:

Ohio State 2
Wisconsin 5
Florida 11
Texas 13
North Carolina 15
Butler 64
Green Bay 121
Savannah State 143
LSU 153

Big East Teams:

Syracuse 7
Louisville 8
Notre Dame 17
Pittsburgh 22
Cincinnati 27
Georgetown 33
UConn 45
Rutgers 52
Villanova 66
USF 76
Providence 78
Seton Hall 83
St John's 87
DePaul 100

[PaintTouches]

I think we're underrated, but we have plenty of chances early to boost that up. Wisconsin looks overrated again, though I'm sure Pomeroy's system helps them out again. All of the Big East teams are top-100.

Non-con and Maui opponents:

Ohio State 2
Wisconsin 5
Florida 11
Texas 13
North Carolina 15
Butler 64
Green Bay 121
Savannah State 143
LSU 153

With 3 (possibly 5) top-15 teams on the non-con slate (and only one at home), I'd venture a guess and say that's the toughest non-con schedule in the country.   

[Silkk the Shaka]

Wisconsin without Gasser is going to be a bubble team this year.  They will probably sneak in on reputation and the fact that there are now 68 slots, but if Dekker falls even slighly short of expectations I wouldn't be shocked to see them on the outside looking in.  #5 is WAY too high, and unless we have injury issues of our own I expect a fairly comfortable victory in the BC this year.

[brewcity77]

Wisconsin could have a really rough go of the non-conference slate. Brusewitz could be out until close to Christmas, and they have some tough non-con opponents, including Marquette, Virginia, Creighton, Florida, and Cal. They could also face a decent Arkansas team and may have to face Green Bay at home without Brusewitz. I think they will lose at least 3 (MU and Florida both on the road) and possibly as many as 6 non-conference games. Really tough year for them to lose two starters for the bulk of the non-conference.

[madtownwarrior]

If Wisconsin loses 6 NC games, Kenpom will move them up to 3 or 4   

Wisconsin could have a really rough go of the non-conference slate. Brusewitz could be out until close to Christmas, and they have some tough non-con opponents, including Marquette, Virginia, Creighton, Florida, and Cal. They could also face a decent Arkansas team and may have to face Green Bay at home without Brusewitz. I think they will lose at least 3 (MU and Florida both on the road) and possibly as many as 6 non-conference games. Really tough year for them to lose two starters for the bulk of the non-conference.

[Skatastrophy]

Wisconsin without Gasser is going to be a bubble team this year.  They will probably sneak in on reputation and the fact that there are now 68 slots, but if Dekker falls even slighly short of expectations I wouldn't be shocked to see them on the outside looking in.  #5 is WAY too high, and unless we have injury issues of our own I expect a fairly comfortable victory in the BC this year.

Wisconsin has a frosh PG that is significantly more athletic than Gasser.  I agree that #5 is too high, but this kid is the size of Mo Acker and hopefully not that productive this season

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQobxOGR_ms

[Dr. Blackheart]

If Wisconsin loses 6 NC games, Kenpom will move them up to 3 or 4  

I actually wrote to Pomeroy on this...and he took some major grief in the public eye on his rankings for slow tempo teams (B1G in particular) on how his model overvalues. My suggestion was to throw in the Luck measure into his model to correct for the bias due to Tempo (and he was a bit defensive, being the scientist and sticking with his objective model). He even admitted a couple of years back to that slow tempo teams are overvalued in his model.  Luck is a separate factor (independent) and is a Dean Oliver measure that is essentially (for simplicity) the measure of expected (prediction) vs. actual outcomes (random) including his model factors like margin, etc..  There are problems with using Luck in his models (before and during the first half of a season, there is not a big enough sample size, etc.), but if you simply took last season's Luck measure + his preseason Overall rating, he can see a more reasonable ranking (in my mind anyway).

• Bucky moves to 11 (with Gasser), OSU moves to 15, MSU to 14.
• Michigan, an uptempo (and talented) team, moves to 4, and MU moves to 16 (will MU be as "lucky" this year). Indiana stays around the same at 5.

[GGGG]

Wisconsin has a frosh PG that is significantly more athletic than Gasser.  I agree that #5 is too high, but this kid is the size of Mo Acker and hopefully not that productive this season

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MUobxOGR_ms

This is the same point guard that was bypassed by a guy who doesn't naturally play the position (Gasser.)  I think he is going to struggle.

[brewcity77]

• Bucky moves to 11 (with Gasser), OSU moves to 15, MSU to 14.
• Michigan, an uptempo (and talented) team, moves to 4, and MU moves to 16 (will MU be as "lucky" this year). Indiana stays around the same at 5.

Michigan is far from uptempo. They are one of the slowest teams in the country and have gotten slower every year under Beilien. I agree they are talented, but they are about as uptempo as molasses.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Michigan is far from uptempo. They are one of the slowest teams in the country and have gotten slower every year under Beilien. I agree they are talented, but they are about as uptempo as molasses.

Yikes...they are at 329. Seem more exciting than the slow "watching the paint dry" B1G.  Wait for that three ball and eFG% is more exciting to watch but they are indeed slooow.

[GGGG]

They are slow, but they move a lot in their half-court offense, so they probably *look* faster than they really are.

[brewcity77]

They are slow, but they move a lot in their half-court offense, so they probably *look* faster than they really are.

Agreed, and with recent recruiting of high-level athletes, they'll likely continue to look fast. They're certainly more fun to watch than other high-majors with similar pace statistics like Bucky, Virginia, and Notre Dame.

[Benny B]

I actually wrote to Pomeroy on this...and he took some major grief in the public eye on his rankings for slow tempo teams (B1G in particular) on how his model overvalues. My suggestion was to throw in the Luck measure into his model to correct for the bias due to Tempo (and he was a bit defensive, being the scientist and sticking with his objective model). He even admitted a couple of years back to that slow tempo teams are overvalued in his model.  Luck is a separate factor (independent) and is a Dean Oliver measure that is essentially (for simplicity) the measure of expected (prediction) vs. actual outcomes (random) including his model factors like margin, etc..  There are problems with using Luck in his models (before and during the first half of a season, there is not a big enough sample size, etc.), but if you simply took last season's Luck measure + his preseason Overall rating, he can see a more reasonable ranking (in my mind anyway).

• Bucky moves to 11 (with Gasser), OSU moves to 15, MSU to 14.
• Michigan, an uptempo (and talented) team, moves to 4, and MU moves to 16 (will MU be as "lucky" this year). Indiana stays around the same at 5.

"Scientist" is generous, given A) he admits his model is flawed yet B) he ignores the critical review of his "peers." 

[Dr. Blackheart]

"Scientist" is generous, given A) he admits his model is flawed yet B) he ignores the critical review of his "peers." 

 

Yet he lists his limitations and delimitations upfront.  Cannot knock him academically but can disagree with him.  That said, he has advanced the game ten fold, and with that he earns a major hat tip.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Dorkstock post for the statheads....

Pomeroy responds:  http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/outliers_and_sleep_deprivation

Hanner also published his ratings. MU#21 and Bucky# 33:  http://basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2426

And Hanner has this blog piece on UW losing Gasser:  http://basketball.realgm.com/blog/224206/How_One_Season_Ending_Injury_Reshapes_A_Season

Lastly, this blog piece aggregates all the polls:  http://lonestarstats.wordpress.com/2012/10/30/aggregated-2013-college-hoops-rankings/

[Silkk the Shaka]

Dorkstock post for the statheads....

Pomeroy responds:  http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/outliers_and_sleep_deprivation

Hanner also published his ratings. MU#21 and Bucky# 33:  http://basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2426

And Hanner has this blog piece on UW losing Gasser:  http://basketball.realgm.com/blog/224206/How_One_Season_Ending_Injury_Reshapes_A_Season

Lastly, this blog piece aggregates all the polls:  http://lonestarstats.wordpress.com/2012/10/30/aggregated-2013-college-hoops-rankings/

Whelp, there goes my morning

[MUDPT]

MU projected to go 18-11, 10-8 in the Big East. Tied for 5th with Cincy and Georgetown.

[Hards Alumni]

MU projected to go 18-11, 10-8 in the Big East. Tied for 5th with Cincy and Georgetown.

I'll take the over.  We easily get to 20 wins.

[MUDPT]

I'll take the over.  We easily get to 20 wins.

Agree and he doesn't count the two other games in Maui after he has MU beating Butler.  Has 3 of the losses in the 40% chance of winning and 5 of the wins in the 50% chance of winning.

[bamamarquettefan]

Wisconsin could have a really rough go of the non-conference slate. Brusewitz could be out until close to Christmas, and they have some tough non-con opponents, including Marquette, Virginia, Creighton, Florida, and Cal. They could also face a decent Arkansas team and may have to face Green Bay at home without Brusewitz. I think they will lose at least 3 (MU and Florida both on the road) and possibly as many as 6 non-conference games. Really tough year for them to lose two starters for the bulk of the non-conference.

agreed, and I believe BJ Young is the SEC sleeper of the year and makes Arkansas a favorite against Wisconsin.

[brewcity77]

agreed, and I believe BJ Young is the SEC sleeper of the year and makes Arkansas a favorite against Wisconsin.

Of course, that's only if Wisconsin plays Arkansas. My guess is they lose to Creighton and take on Arizona State without Trent Lockett. The worst case scenario would be losing to Creighton and ASU somehow upsetting Arkansas. Wisky would probably go 0-2 on that trip.

[Stronghold]

I definitely think Creighton will take down Wisconsin.  They are a better team than they were last year and I don't see who will guard McDermott.

[madtownwarrior]

After getting crushed by Florida, Bucky dropped to 11.

But now after thrashing the #228 and #323 teams by an average 35 points each, the KenPom love affair is for Wisconsin is back - up to #3, right behind the team that just thrashed them by 18.

This is why KenPom stats / analysis are partially a joke...

If Wisconsin loses 6 NC games, Kenpom will move them up to 3 or 4   

[jsglow]

After getting crushed by Florida, Bucky dropped to 11.

But now after thrashing the #228 and #323 teams by an average 35 points each, the KenPom love affair is for Wisconsin is back - up to #3, right behind the team that just thrashed them by 18.

This is why KenPom stats / analysis are partially a joke...

Even he admits that his mathematical model doesn't work well for Wisconsin.

[QuetteHoops]

Even he admits that his mathematical model doesn't work well for Wisconsin.

That's interesting...has he actually stated that before.