2012-13 Schedule

[4everwarriors]

I thought that Syracuse had a longer streak going against Cornell or someone, and this streak was number two.

Colgate, aina?

[mu_hilltopper]

I don't see it.

Do the comparison blind.   Marquette has one last game to fill.  Or 8 games to fill, same theory applies:

Team A: RPI 133, 38 game winning streak
Team B: RPI 300, 99 game winning streak

Who should they schedule?   Or rather, what's their goal, and which opponent gets MU closer to that goal?  Is their only goal to milk a game of revenue out of season ticket holders?    No.  

Their goal is to do things like improve their resume for March, and tune up for the brutal BE opponents.  Oh yeah, and entertain fans, that's always nice.

Team A, Team A, Team A.  

[brewcity77]

Brewcity 77-
You are a schedule follower, like myself. MU said on May 14, that the nc-schedule would be out by the end of May. Why do you think that didn't happen yet?

Just went back and looked at that tweet:

@muathletics: 12-13 #mubb schedule nearly complete. Unique dates/opponents will begin being released this month. Home schedule features 16 games.

To be fair, they did start releasing "unique dates/opponents" when they gave the Ohio State date as Nov. 9, but I see what you mean. It sounds like they planned to start, but wouldn't surprise me if the tOSU game coming open when it did threw a monkeywrench in that plan. Might have forced them to reschedule a date or two, which would have explained having to cancel Milwaukee this year, and thus put off the announcements.

[🏀]

Colgate, aina?

I am more of a Crest guy but, you are the expert.

[The Equalizer]

84, I don't think you understand the concept of "apples to apples". Changing cupcakes is an apples to apples comparison. Playing 4 teams with an average RPI of 227 instead of teams with an average RPI of 328 is an apples to apples comparison. Talking about avoiding the bad loss to SHU or beating Louisville is pie in the sky. If wishes were horses then beggers would ride, and all you can do about games you lost is wish. But changing how you schedule is something you CAN change.

I'm not saying you can't change your mix of cupcakes.  I'm saying that changing your cupcakes is irrelevant.

Also, the RPI of a Harvard, CSU, or Missouri State is not equal to ours.

No, the RPI for Harvard, CSU, or Missouri State was much better than ours.  No doubt because they played tougher cupcakes,

The SOS is completely different because of their conference schedule. But our mighty conference schedule still put us on the bubble, and playing better cupcakes is what can separate us from the USCs and Virginia Techs of the world.

Then please explain how the RPI for Harvard, CSU or Missouri State is actually calculated.  Because I thought it was the same formula for all teams.

And from what I can tell, Harvard, CSU and Missouri State actually DID play tougher cupcakes than we did,  having the expected result of improving their RPI--which, according to your theory--should not only have moved them off the bubble, but also moved them up a couple seed lines as well.

We barely got in the dance that year because of our pathetic NCSOS.

Wrong.  We barely got in the dance because we were tied for ninth place in a coference (and seeded 11th in the conference tourney) that had never sent more than eight teams to the dance.  We barely got in because down the stretch--knowing we were on the bubble--we lost AT HOME to #102 Seton Hall--officially classified by the NCAA as a bad loss.

But I guess, according you you, all that had no impact.  It's the cupcakes.  

If it had been stronger, we'd have been far more secure and up a couple seed lines. Granted, winning more games solves a lot, but that's a wish scenario. I live in a real world where I want Marquette to plan for what they can impact, which is playing stronger teams in the non-con. You can't control the bounces of February with anything you do in June, but you can control the strength of the opponent across the floor in November, and that can make the difference between the NCAAs and the NIT.

How in the world would we have moved up "a couple of seed lines"?  Your hightly touted "improvment" from 64 to 54 would have moved us ahead of only two at-large teams--Clemson and Florida State--and one automatic bid--Gonzaga.  

Gonzaga beat us head to head, so I don't see how we would have moved ahead of them on the basis of cupcakes. Florida State beat Duke while we lost--again, hard to make the case that we would have been seeded ahead of them.  And Clemson was already seeded behind us, thus lower on the S-curve.

In other words, not only would we NOT have moved up 2 seed lines.  We probably woudln't have moved up  2 places on the S-curve!

And you must not have noticed that most of the teams we would have passed in your hypothetical jump from 64 to 54--Boston College, UTEP, Wichita State, Oklahoma State, Virgina Tech and Southern Miss--didn't make the tournament anyway!  

And our cupcakes were arguably worse than those of these six teams.

Granted, winning more games solves a lot, but that's a wish scenario. I live in a real world where I want Marquette to plan for what they can impact, which is playing stronger teams in the non-con. You can't control the bounces of February with anything you do in June, but you can control the strength of the opponent across the floor in November, and that can make the difference between the NCAAs and the NIT.

I'd like to hear your explaination as to why your "cupcake optimization theory" would work for Marquette when it failed to generate a 2011 bid for Boston College (zero 300+ cupcakes), UTEP (two 300+ cupcakes), Wichita State (two 300+ cupcakes), Oklahoma State (two 300+ cupcakes), Virgina Tech (one 300+ cupcake), and Southern Miss (one 300+ cupcake)--each of which missed the tourney while Marquette (with a worse overall RPI and four 300+ cupcakes) did receive a bid.

Other than the obvious--which is that the cupcakes count far less than you suggest.

[Skatastrophy]

I'm not saying you can't change your mix of cupcakes.  I'm saying that changing your cupcakes is irrelevant.

No, the RPI for Harvard, CSU, or Missouri State was much better than ours.  No doubt because they played tougher cupcakes,


Then please explain how the RPI for Harvard, CSU or Missouri State is actually calculated.  Because I thought it was the same formula for all teams.

And from what I can tell, Harvard, CSU and Missouri State actually DID play tougher cupcakes than we did,  having the expected result of improving their RPI--which, according to your theory--should not only have moved them off the bubble, but also moved them up a couple seed lines as well.


Wrong.  We barely got in the dance because we were tied for ninth place in a coference (and seeded 11th in the conference tourney) that had never sent more than eight teams to the dance.  We barely got in because down the stretch--knowing we were on the bubble--we lost AT HOME to #102 Seton Hall--officially classified by the NCAA as a bad loss.

But I guess, according you you, all that had no impact.  It's the cupcakes. 

How in the world would we have moved up "a couple of seed lines"?  Your hightly touted "improvment" from 64 to 54 would have moved us ahead of only two at-large teams--Clemson and Florida State--and one automatic bid--Gonzaga. 

Gonzaga beat us head to head, so I don't see how we would have moved ahead of them on the basis of cupcakes. Florida State beat Duke while we lost--again, hard to make the case that we would have been seeded ahead of them.  And Clemson was already seeded behind us, thus lower on the S-curve.

In other words, not only would we NOT have moved up 2 seed lines.  We probably woudln't have moved up  2 places on the S-curve!

And you must not have noticed that most of the teams we would have passed in your hypothetical jump from 64 to 54--Boston College, UTEP, Wichita State, Oklahoma State, Virgina Tech and Southern Miss--didn't make the tournament anyway! 

And our cupcakes were arguably worse than those of these six teams.

I'd like to hear your explaination as to why your "cupcake optimization theory" would work for Marquette when it failed to generate a 2011 bid for Boston College (zero 300+ cupcakes), UTEP (two 300+ cupcakes), Wichita State (two 300+ cupcakes), Oklahoma State (two 300+ cupcakes), Virgina Tech (one 300+ cupcake), and Southern Miss (one 300+ cupcake)--each of which missed the tourney while Marquette (with a worse overall RPI and four 300+ cupcakes) did receive a bid.

Other than the obvious--which is that the cupcakes count far less than you suggest.

tl;dr.

[brewcity77]

Edited the first post to include the full conference schedule to date. Mirror opponents are Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Seton Hall, and South Florida.

[Silkk the Shaka]

Two winter Florida games - gods be praised!

[brewcity77]

Interesting that Colgate has been added as one of the home games after all the discussion about them. Here's a quick look at both teams.

Colgate
Returning Players: Pat Moore, Mitch Rolls, John Brandenburg, Brandon James
3-Year RPI Average: 297.3
3-Year Kenpom Average: 303.7
2012-13 Outlook: Head coach Matt Langel will hope for a better second year than his debut campaign at Colgate. Quite simply, this is and has been a bad team for awhile. They have some size, and do return two of their top three scorers in Moore and Rolls, but will need Langel's freshman class from last year to grow up in a hurry if they plan to do anything. Probably the most that can be hoped for out of this team is that they keep their RPI out of the 300s. Definitely not the sort of team I was hoping for as the Maui mainland game.

Southeastern Louisiana
Returning Players: Brandon Fortenberry, Roosevelt Johnson, Daron Populist, Antonnio Benton, Jeremy Campbell
3-Year RPI Average: 249.3
3-Year Kenpom Average: 253
2012-13 Outlook: Both 3-year numbers are skewed by last season, when senior guard Brandon Fortenberry was injured just 7 games into the season. But the man who was averaging 17.6 ppg was granted a waiver to play a fifth season and is a Southland Conference POY candidate for 2012-13. I'll tab Fortenberry now as this year's Kyle O'Quinn, an exceptional player for his league and a guy that I can't wait to see Marquette match up with. He'll make a good early-season test for the Marquette defense. Without Fortenberry, Roosevelt Johnson led the Lions in scoring and rebounding. This team returns almost everyone and adds three JUCO players that will be ready to contribute immediately. This team will probably rank low in preseason projections, but could be a top-200 team and challenge for their conference bid in March. Teams like Lamar and UTA are losing their best players, while the Lions are getting theirs back. I like this team quite a bit.

[brewcity77]

Marquette announced Savannah State over the weekend. That probably won't get many people excited, but I think it's a huge add. They are a very solid bet to be at least a NIT team, and should be a clear-cut favorite to play in the NCAA Tournament as the auto-bid winner out of the MEAC next year (the same conference that produced Norfolk State).

Savannah State
Returning Players: Rashad Hassan, Deric Rudolph, Arnold Louis, Preston Blackmon, Joshua Montgomery
3-Year RPI Average: 264
3-Year Kenpom Average: 249.3
2012-13 Outlook: What the average numbers don't show is that Savannah State has improved markedly with this class that will now be seniors, from 318 in the RPI as freshmen to 191 last year as juniors and from 309 per Kenpom as freshmen to 173 as juniors. Savannah State finished ahead of Norfolk State in both rankings last year despite losing in the conference tournament. What makes the Tigers interesting is that they start five seniors and all of their bench players will be seniors or juniors as they return literally everyone from last year. Rashad Hassan is a dynamic player that can play inside and out. The real question is if they can beat a top-200 team as they've only beaten one (per kenpom) the previous 3 seasons.

[bradley center bat]

@Green Bay on Dec.19th.

[klyrish]

I really wish they would just release the schedule already. I'm so antsy

[brewcity77]

I really wish they would just release the schedule already. I'm so antsy

Well, this is what they do every year, release it one date at a time. 10/13 non-conference dates are set, 11/13 opponents are known. By Wednesday or Thursday we'll know the entire thing. I've been updating the opening post as they release dates, so this thread will have it all sorted in short order (at least until the Maui bracket is released).

[Benny B]

If history holds, then MU will likely be playing 22nd (three consecutive Saturdays in December).  That likely sets up Friday the 28th for their last OOC game, allowing them to open the BE season on Mon Dec 31 or Tue Jan 1.

If that's the case, my guess is cupcake on the 22nd and LSU on the 28th.

[bradley center bat]

If history holds, then MU will likely be playing 22nd (three consecutive Saturdays in December).  That likely sets up Friday the 28th for their last OOC game, allowing them to open the BE season on Mon Dec 31 or Tue Jan 1.

If that's the case, my guess is cupcake on the 22nd and LSU on the 28th.

Marquette said on their press release on July 6, the last non-conference game will be on a Saturday, Dec. 29.

MU, should have 4 Saturday home games in December.

[bradley center bat]

Too bad we have to wait untill September to get dates for the Big East games.

Maybe MU can host on MLK Day. 

[Benny B]

Marquette said on their press release on July 6, the last non-conference game will be on a Saturday, Dec. 29.

MU, should have 4 Saturday home games in December.

Looking like another New Year's Day opener...

[Skatastrophy]

Looking like another New Year's Day opener...

Oh I hope not.  I've been still-drunk and exhausted every time they've had those.  It's just miserable

[Bocephys]

Oh I hope not.  I've been still-drunk and exhausted every time they've had those.  It's just miserable

#WhiteWhine

[bradley center bat]

MU could start on the road Dec. 31 or Jan. 1.

[brewcity77]

LSU was announced today as Dec. 22. That gives us 11 spots filled (once we know the Maui pairings) so Marquette can still add 2 more opponents. However, so far they have been releasing them in chronological order. This likely means one of two things:

1) We won't have a full 13-game slate of non-conference games. With Colgate counting as part of Maui, we have room for 13. But we usually have a break around Christmas, so most likely the players won't play again until Dec. 28 or 29, and then open the season as usual on New Year's Day. That really only leaves room for one more non-conference game.

2) We will have 13 non-con games, but one of them will be in the middle of the conference season. We haven't done this much in the past, the last time was in 2007-08 when we closed the regular season with Florida Gulf Coast. Hasn't been aprt of our MO since Buzz took over.

[MU Buff]

LSU was announced today as Dec. 22. That gives us 11 spots filled (once we know the Maui pairings) so Marquette can still add 2 more opponents. However, so far they have been releasing them in chronological order. This likely means one of two things:

1) We won't have a full 13-game slate of non-conference games. With Colgate counting as part of Maui, we have room for 13. But we usually have a break around Christmas, so most likely the players won't play again until Dec. 28 or 29, and then open the season as usual on New Year's Day. That really only leaves room for one more non-conference game.

2) We will have 13 non-con games, but one of them will be in the middle of the conference season. We haven't done this much in the past, the last time was in 2007-08 when we closed the regular season with Florida Gulf Coast. Hasn't been aprt of our MO since Buzz took over.

It looks like you forgot to add UMBC Nov. 26 in your original post

[brewcity77]

It looks like you forgot to add UMBC Nov. 26 in your original post

I did, thanks for that

[klyrish]

Why are Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Seton Hall and South Florida bold in the first post? Because we play them twice?

[brewcity77]

Why are Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Seton Hall and South Florida bold in the first post? Because we play them twice?

Yup

And the final non-con game should be released tomorrow.