[Cracked Sidewalks] S-Curve: Feb 24

[CrackedSidewalksSays]

S-Curve: Feb 24

Written by: noreply@blogger.com (Alan Bykowski)

The past few days, I've been noticing that everyone seems to be far higher on Michigan than I was. I initially felt they were being overrated, but as I saw them turning up on the 2 and 3 line in many brackets, I took a closer look at their profile, and realized that I was probably underrating them. Rather than simply giving Michigan a bump, I scrapped my old data and completely redid my bracket projection today. Rather than posting a bracket, for the time-being, I decided to use an S-Curve, as it prevented me from having to move teams up or down seed lines for match-up purposes, and at this point shows a more accurate depiction of where teams should be rated. Here's the current S-Curve:





First Four Out: Dayton, UCF, Miami, Minnesota
Next Four Out: NC State, Washington, St. Joseph's, South Florida

[color=red;">Red][color=black;">][/color]
[color=red;">Purple][color=white;">][/color][/color][/color]
[color=red;">Green][color=white;">][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color]
[color=red;">Orange][color=white;">][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color]

[color=red;"> In][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color]

[color=red;">For][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color]

[color=red;">At][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color]

[color=red;">Finally,][/color] [/color][/color] [/color][/color][/color][/color]

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2012/02/s-curve-feb-24.html

[mugrad2006]

This is great.  As much as I want MU to be a 2 seed, it's really hard to put them above anyone on the S-Curve right now.  Michigan is their best option to leap, but that still leaves them below Duke, OSU, and others. 

The flip side is they're in a really good position to maintain the 3 even if they have a couple more losses between now and selection Sunday.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I disagree on Michigan. Sure they've beat OSU and MSU, but they've lost to them as well. They're a good team 12-16 range, but they aren't the 9th best team in country. No wayyyy.

[statnik]

I disagree on Michigan. Sure they've beat OSU and MSU, but they've lost to them as well. They're a good team 12-16 range, but they aren't the 9th best team in country. No wayyyy.

I agree.  With seven losses (including Iowa and Arkansas, average major conference teams at best), and a relative dearth of good wins in the non conference season, I don't think they deserve to be top 10.

[wardle2wade]

S-Curve: Feb 24

Written by: noreply@blogger.com (Alan Bykowski)

The past few days, I've been noticing that everyone seems to be far higher on Michigan than I was. I initially felt they were being overrated, but as I saw them turning up on the 2 and 3 line in many brackets, I took a closer look at their profile, and realized that I was probably underrating them. Rather than simply giving Michigan a bump, I scrapped my old data and completely redid my bracket projection today. Rather than posting a bracket, for the time-being, I decided to use an S-Curve, as it prevented me from having to move teams up or down seed lines for match-up purposes, and at this point shows a more accurate depiction of where teams should be rated. Here's the current S-Curve:





First Four Out: Dayton, UCF, Miami, Minnesota
Next Four Out: NC State, Washington, St. Joseph's, South Florida

[color=red;">Red][color=black;">][/color]
[color=red;"><span][color=black;"><span][color=#d9d2e9;">Purple][color=white;">][/color][/color][/color]
[color=red;"><span][color=black;"><span][color=#d9d2e9;"><span][color=white;"><span][color=#b6d7a8;">Green][color=white;">][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color]
[color=red;"><span][color=black;"><span][color=#d9d2e9;"><span][color=white;"><span][color=#b6d7a8;"><span][color=white;"><span][color=#f9cb9c;">Orange][color=white;">][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color]

[color=red;"><span][color=black;"><span][color=#d9d2e9;"><span][color=white;"><span][color=#b6d7a8;"><span][color=white;"><span][color=#f9cb9c;"><span][color=white;"> In][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color]

[color=red;"><span][color=black;"><span][color=#d9d2e9;"><span][color=white;"><span][color=#b6d7a8;"><span][color=white;"><span][color=#f9cb9c;"><span][color=white;">For][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color]

[color=red;"><span][color=black;"><span][color=#d9d2e9;"><span][color=white;"><span][color=#b6d7a8;"><span][color=white;"><span][color=#f9cb9c;"><span][color=white;">At][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color][/color]

[color=red;"><span][color=black;"><span][color=#d9d2e9;"><span][color=white;"><span][color=#b6d7a8;"><span][color=white;"><span][color=#f9cb9c;"><span][color=white;">Finally,][/color] [/color][/color] [/color][/color][/color][/color]

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2012/02/s-curve-feb-24.html

I know there's a lot of work behind this, but I can't believe that any field still has the Illini in.  I'd be absolutely shocked if the committee puts them in at this point.

[brewcity77]

I disagree on Michigan. Sure they've beat OSU and MSU, but they've lost to them as well. They're a good team 12-16 range, but they aren't the 9th best team in country. No wayyyy.

I felt the same way on Michigan, but consider this:

• They are one of only 5 teams in the country with 8 top-50 wins
• They have as many top-20 wins as Syracuse, Kentucky, or Missouri, and more than North Carolina, Marquette, Baylor, and Georgetown combined
• Their worst loss is to Iowa, a team that has 4 top-25 wins.

.
I was thinking they were a 5-6 seed, but when you match them up to the rest of the field, there's no way you can line them up against teams like Louisville, Vandy, FSU, and Wisconsin and keep a straight face.

[brewcity77]

I know there's a lot of work behind this, but I can't believe that any field still has the Illini in.  I'd be absolutely shocked if the committee puts them in at this point.

I had the Illini out the last bracket I did, didn't even have them in the last 8. But when you look at their quality wins compared to their only bad loss, they're hard to keep out. They still have a good resume, even if they're in the process of throwing up on their shoes.