Gtown loses and K-State upsets Mizzou...

[Bob "Big Daddy" Wild]

Lunardi's latest S-Curve, pre-Missou loss:

1. 'Cuse
2. Kentucky
3. Missou
4. Mich St.
5. Duke
6. Kansas
7. UNC
8. Ohio St.

To get a 2 seed, we need to leapfrog one of these teams.  Not to mention, Michigan, Georgetown, and Baylor, are all ahead of Marquette...again, before GU loss last night.

Is is possible?  Yes, if we come close to winning out, take down cuse in the tourney, and Ohio St and/or Kansas flame out down the stretch.  Is that scenario likely?  Not really.  Those teams are really good. 

Even if we win out, I think we need some help with one of the above teams adding a few losses down the stretch.

[MUMac]

Lunardi's latest S-Curve, pre-Missou loss:

1. 'Cuse
2. Kentucky
3. Missou
4. Mich St.
5. Duke
6. Kansas
7. UNC
8. Ohio St.

To get a 2 seed, we need to leapfrog one of these teams.  Not to mention, Michigan, Georgetown, and Baylor, are all ahead of Marquette...again, before GU loss last night.

Is is possible?  Yes, if we come close to winning out, take down cuse in the tourney, and Ohio St and/or Kansas flame out down the stretch.  Is that scenario likely?  Not really.  Those teams are really good. 

Even if we win out, I think we need some help with one of the above teams adding a few losses down the stretch.

I can see MU leapfrogging Michigan, Georgetown and Baylor.  That, though, is where it would likely end.  Could be the top 3 seed, but I think it would take winning out (including the BE Tourney) AND Mizzou beating KU along with an early exit from either KU, OSU or UNC.  Just don't see that happenning.  Would not be disappointed with a 3 seed - in fact, fairly happy.

[wadesworld]

Lunardi's latest S-Curve, pre-Missou loss:

1. 'Cuse
2. Kentucky
3. Missou
4. Mich St.
5. Duke
6. Kansas
7. UNC
8. Ohio St.

To get a 2 seed, we need to leapfrog one of these teams.  Not to mention, Michigan, Georgetown, and Baylor, are all ahead of Marquette...again, before GU loss last night.

Is is possible?  Yes, if we come close to winning out, take down cuse in the tourney, and Ohio St and/or Kansas flame out down the stretch.  Is that scenario likely?  Not really.  Those teams are really good. 

Even if we win out, I think we need some help with one of the above teams adding a few losses down the stretch.

If we won out we would not need any more help than is naturally going to happen just by a couple of those teams giving each other losses when they play each other. With conference tournaments plus 3-5 games left in the regular season, some of those teams will lose multiple games and most will lose once. If we go into Selection Sunday winning 18 out of 19 games, finishing 2nd in the Big East regular season and winning the Big East Tournament, we would be ranked in the top 5 and have a very legitimate chance at a 1 seed. No way possible we're not at least a 2 seed in that case.

[chapman]

If we won out we would not need any more help than is naturally going to happen just by a couple of those teams giving each other losses when they play each other. With conference tournaments plus 3-5 games left in the regular season, some of those teams will lose multiple games and most will lose once. If we go into Selection Sunday winning 18 out of 19 games, finishing 2nd in the Big East regular season and winning the Big East Tournament, we would be ranked in the top 5 and have a very legitimate chance at a 1 seed. No way possible we're not at least a 2 seed in that case.

Agree.  And just look at the schedules - Mizzou and Kansas play this weekend, and may play again in the conference tournament.  Same goes for Duke and UNC.  Same for OSU and Michigan State.  There is a lot of attrition to be had there when #3 and #6, #5 and #7, and #4 and #8 play each other twice more, assuming neither of the teams loses early in their conference tournament or picks up another regular season loss (Duke at FSU, UNC at Virginia, etc.).  If we would win out we're a lock for a 2.  With Cuse and Kentucky firmly holding on to the top seeds and the likelihood that a could of the above teams sweep their remaining head-to-head matchups with the other a 1 is very doubtful though.

[brewcity77]

Lunardi's latest S-Curve, pre-Missou loss:

1. 'Cuse
2. Kentucky
3. Missou
4. Mich St.
5. Duke
6. Kansas
7. UNC
8. Ohio St.

To get a 2 seed, we need to leapfrog one of these teams.  Not to mention, Michigan, Georgetown, and Baylor, are all ahead of Marquette...again, before GU loss last night.

Is is possible?  Yes, if we come close to winning out, take down cuse in the tourney, and Ohio St and/or Kansas flame out down the stretch.  Is that scenario likely?  Not really.  Those teams are really good. 

Even if we win out, I think we need some help with one of the above teams adding a few losses down the stretch.

Michigan being ahead of us? Sorry, but there's no way in hell I see that. Too many losses overall, and two pretty bad ones (Iowa and Arkansas). We don't have a single loss as bad as their two worst. Yes, they have some nice wins, but all of them came at home, whereas we have 2 top-25 RPI wins on the road. Georgetown...not after last night. And Baylor? 3 losses in their last 5 games has really hurt their seeding. If we win out, we'll pass them on the basis of playing tougher games in the next 2 weeks.

Still...even if we win out, I don't think we get a 1 unless everything falls perfectly. Syracuse and Kentucky are virtual locks unless the bottom completely falls out. One of the Big 12 teams should get one. And I have to think either an ACC or a Big 10 team will get the other. Yes, teams could have mini-collapses, but we need 5 teams in 3 conferences to all have mini collapses. The odds are that some of those teams will build strength at their opponent's expense (as Mizzou/KU, Duke/UNC, and tOSU/MSU all play each other soon).

A 2-seed is realistic if we win out and get to the final or win the Big East tourney. A 1 is probably too much to ask, no matter what we do.

[wadesworld]

I can see MU leapfrogging Michigan, Georgetown and Baylor.  That, though, is where it would likely end.  Could be the top 3 seed, but I think it would take winning out (including the BE Tourney) AND Mizzou beating KU along with an early exit from either KU, OSU or UNC.  Just don't see that happenning.  Would not be disappointed with a 3 seed - in fact, fairly happy.

I disagree. Right now Syracuse and Kentucky are the only locks for a 1 seed with only one loss. The most I could see either ending up with is 3 losses. Other than that, Missouri just got its 3rd loss last night and goes to Kansas Saturday. There's also the Big 12 tournament, so between Baylor, Missouri, and Kansas chances are there are 2 games played between the 3 of them in the Tournment. Then Duke and UNC Play each other once more regular season and there's the ACC Tournament. Same thing with Ohio State and Michigan State in the Big 10 regular season and Tournament. Michigan and Georgetown both already lost, plus have regular season and conference tournament games against teams above them.

If any of these teams win out they will get the 1 seeds. But the chances of that are very slim. If we were to win out and say all of those teams somehow lost just 1 game the rest of the year and none were bad/early conference tournament losses (so they were basically all against 1 another), we would finish with 5 losses as would Duke and Missouri, who would have the least amount of losses out of that group. All of those teams would have losses in the last 3 weeks of the season, while we would not, to go along with having lost just 1 of our last 19 games, or 1 loss in the last month and a half of the season. We would also presumably have 3 wins against top 15 teams in the last week of the regular season, beating 2 of ND, Louisville, GTown, and Cuse in the BET and GTown to end the regular season. Finishing 29-5, 2nd in the Big East, and winning the BET would get us very close to a 1 seed, and honestly SHOULD get us a 1 seed. There are still a lot of losses left to come for teams above us, and our resume is not that far behind any of them besides Syracuse and Kentucky. (I in no way expect to go 7-0 through the BET, just saying if it happened)

[jsglow]

I look at this a little differently.  Were MU to win out (including the BEast tournament) we would clearly be second in our conference's pecking order.  And in my mind, that's an automatic #2 seed.  For that same reason, I believe we have no shot at a #1.  Barring something crazy, Syracuse has already earned that.  And the committee is going to want representation from other conferences (ACC, Big10, Big12) in each of those remaining two #1 slots.

[dwaderoy2004]

Except of course for 2009, when the Big East had three #1 seeds.

[MUMac]

I disagree. Right now Syracuse and Kentucky are the only locks for a 1 seed with only one loss. The most I could see either ending up with is 3 losses. Other than that, Missouri just got its 3rd loss last night and goes to Kansas Saturday. There's also the Big 12 tournament, so between Baylor, Missouri, and Kansas chances are there are 2 games played between the 3 of them in the Tournment. Then Duke and UNC Play each other once more regular season and there's the ACC Tournament. Same thing with Ohio State and Michigan State in the Big 10 regular season and Tournament. Michigan and Georgetown both already lost, plus have regular season and conference tournament games against teams above them.

Ahead of MU will be Cuse, Kentucky, the ACC; Big 12 and Big 10 Champs.  It depends upon how KU plays this week against Mizzou.  If they win at Lawrence and they play each other in the Big 12 Championship game, the loser will be a 2 seed with the winner a 1.  The wildcards are OSU and UNC.  Again, I am not saying MU getting to a 2 seed can't or won't happen.  I just don't think it will.  Would be damn happy if it did, though!!

[jsglow]

Except of course for 2009, when the Big East had three #1 seeds.

True 'nuff.  But there will still be a bias against that.

[brewcity77]

Okay, I'm going to go through team-by-team what it would take to pass them. At least in my estimation. I think wades has a good point that we could be in the mix, but it would take a lot to break right.

• Kentucky: Lock them into a 1-seed. Yes, hypothetically they could drop a line, but it won't happen.
  
• Syracuse: See above (Kentucky)
  
• Missouri: We need them to lose two regular season games and not win the Big 12 tourney or one and not reach the Big 12 title game.
  
• Michigan State: We probably need them to lose both @ Indiana and v tOSU, even then we need them to not win the Big 10 title. Or if they lose one and fail to reach the Big 10 title game.
  
• Duke: They need to lose @ FSU and not reach the ACC title game. Or if they lose in the ACC final to anyone other than UNC. Honestly, any loss to UNC won't hurt them much, unless it's two in a week.
  
• Kansas: Need them to lose v Mizzou and not reach the Big 12 title game. It would also work if they lost one of their road games (TAMU & Okla St) but that's not likely, and then they could reach the title game (but not win it) and we could pass them.
  
• North Carolina: Lose @ UVa and fail to reach the ACC title game, or lose the ACC title game to anyone other than Duke. Probably need to win out to get a 1-seed. Losing to Duke won't really hurt them.
  
• Ohio State: We need them to lose to Wisconsin or @ Northwestern and either not reach the Big 10 title game or lose the final to anyone other than MSU. Losing to MSU won't really hurt them.
  
• Michigan: Should not be ahead of us. No way in hell. If we win out, any loss by them (regular season or B10 tourney) would guarantee we are ahead of them.
  
• Georgetown: After last night, we should be ahead of them. To stay there, win out. That includes beating them March 3.
  
• Baylor: I also think we're ahead of them. If we win out, we definitely would be, unless they beat both Mizzou and Kansas in the Big 12 tourney.

.
Of course, all of the above could happen. But we need to win out, then also need five of the six scenarios depicted for Mizzou, MSU, Duke, KU, UNC, and tOSU to play out. Not impossible, but also unlikely that all the dominoes fall like that to get us to a 1. However, if we win out, we only need one or two of those to happen to get a 2-seed, which seems to me to be highly likely. Someone's gotta slip up a bit.

[MUMac]

Good accessment Brew.  I think that is accurate.

[JWags85]

• Michigan: Should not be ahead of us. No way in hell. If we win out, any loss by them (regular season or B10 tourney) would guarantee we are ahead of them.
  

I was at the Michigan-NW game last night.  No way in hell Michigan should be ahead of us.  That team is so 3 ball dependent, its not even funny.

Also related, I pull for them and want them to break the streak, but Northwestern is just not a tournament team.  Its a 2 man team with Shurna and Crawford, and when Crawford went out in the second half, it was one of the most painful offenses I've ever seen.  Just the definition of anemic.  And Carmody, who I think is a decent coach, steadfastly refused to leave a strange looking 1-3-1 when it was already shown the only way Michigan was gonna win was by the 3 ball, and thats what ultimately killed NW, Michigan started making their WIDE OPEN 3s again.  Just an ugly game.

[brewcity77]

Also related, I pull for them and want them to break the streak, but Northwestern is just not a tournament team.

They may not be your typical tournament team, but in the 68-team era, I think they probably are. If they can beat Penn State and Iowa on the road and avoid a bad loss, they will have 3 top-50 wins and no bad losses. The bubble is maybe even softer than it was last year, and I'd take their resume over teams like Miami, NC State, Cincinnati, UCF, Dayton, and Minnesota, all of whom are also on the bubble.

[MerrittsMustache]

Okay, I'm going to go through team-by-team what it would take to pass them. At least in my estimation. I think wades has a good point that we could be in the mix, but it would take a lot to break right.

• Kentucky: Lock them into a 1-seed. Yes, hypothetically they could drop a line, but it won't happen.
  
• Syracuse: See above (Kentucky)
  
• Missouri: We need them to lose two regular season games and not win the Big 12 tourney or one and not reach the Big 12 title game.
  
• Michigan State: We probably need them to lose both @ Indiana and v tOSU, even then we need them to not win the Big 10 title. Or if they lose one and fail to reach the Big 10 title game.
  
• Duke: They need to lose @ FSU and not reach the ACC title game. Or if they lose in the ACC final to anyone other than UNC. Honestly, any loss to UNC won't hurt them much, unless it's two in a week.
  
• Kansas: Need them to lose v Mizzou and not reach the Big 12 title game. It would also work if they lost one of their road games (TAMU & Okla St) but that's not likely, and then they could reach the title game (but not win it) and we could pass them.
  
• North Carolina: Lose @ UVa and fail to reach the ACC title game, or lose the ACC title game to anyone other than Duke. Probably need to win out to get a 1-seed. Losing to Duke won't really hurt them.
  
• Ohio State: We need them to lose to Wisconsin or @ Northwestern and either not reach the Big 10 title game or lose the final to anyone other than MSU. Losing to MSU won't really hurt them.
  
• Michigan: Should not be ahead of us. No way in hell. If we win out, any loss by them (regular season or B10 tourney) would guarantee we are ahead of them.
  
• Georgetown: After last night, we should be ahead of them. To stay there, win out. That includes beating them March 3.
  
• Baylor: I also think we're ahead of them. If we win out, we definitely would be, unless they beat both Mizzou and Kansas in the Big 12 tourney.

.
Of course, all of the above could happen. But we need to win out, then also need five of the six scenarios depicted for Mizzou, MSU, Duke, KU, UNC, and tOSU to play out. Not impossible, but also unlikely that all the dominoes fall like that to get us to a 1. However, if we win out, we only need one or two of those to happen to get a 2-seed, which seems to me to be highly likely. Someone's gotta slip up a bit.

Good analysis, but I don't think that conference tournament losses matter that much for teams trying to earn #1 or #2 seeds. MU has a good chance to pass G'town and should already be ahead of Baylor and Michigan, but one of those top 8 teams would either have to slide or MU would have to win out in order to get up to a 2-seed. The fact that a lot of those teams are playing each other doesn't really help MU because, unless a home team gets blown out, I don't think that loss will be held against any of those teams. If MU ends up as the highest-rated #3 or the lowest-rated #2, it's basically the same road to the FF because those two seeds would match-up in the S16. Playing a 7/10 or a 6/11 in the 2nd Round is pretty much a wash.

However it ends up, this is way better than monitoring Bubble Watch daily!

[brewcity77]

Good analysis, but I don't think that conference tournament losses matter that much for teams trying to earn #1 or #2 seeds. MU has a good chance to pass G'town and should already be ahead of Baylor and Michigan, but one of those top 8 teams would either have to slide or MU would have to win out in order to get up to a 2-seed. The fact that a lot of those teams are playing each other doesn't really help MU because, unless a home team gets blown out, I don't think that loss will be held against any of those teams. If MU ends up as the highest-rated #3 or the lowest-rated #2, it's basically the same road to the FF because those two seeds would match-up in the S16. Playing a 7/10 or a 6/11 in the 2nd Round is pretty much a wash.

However it ends up, this is way better than monitoring Bubble Watch daily!

I agree, unless it's a questionable loss. It doesn't matter if Duke loses to UNC in the conference tourney, but if they lose to Miami or NC State, it could. I think back to 2003...we had a legitimate shot at a 1-seed that year. Those were the golden days of C-USA, when Marquette, Louisville, Memphis, Charlotte, and Cincy were regulars in the tourney, and teams like St. Louis, UAB, and DePaul were good enough to round out what was usually a 5-6 bid conference.

Anyway...when we lost to ECU, we went from being an almost certain 2-seed and possible 1-seed all the way down to a 3. The conference tournament doesn't hurt you if you make the final, or if you lose to another team that's projected as a top-4 seed, but a loss to a bubble team or taking a bad loss can definitely knock a team down a seed line or two, even among the top seeds. And if Marquette wins out including at MSG, the committee will be looking to split hairs about where they end up. If we're 2nd in the Big East, win the BE Tourney, have a top-5 RPI, and come in having won 17/18 including 10 of those wins over tourney teams (assuming 3 in the BET) it'd be real hard to keep us off the two line, especially if you're looking at other teams that slipped up against good competition while we were beating the likes of Georgetown and Syracuse.

Hypothetically...of course.

And regardless, definitely better than being TBW again!

[MerrittsMustache]

I agree, unless it's a questionable loss. It doesn't matter if Duke loses to UNC in the conference tourney, but if they lose to Miami or NC State, it could. I think back to 2003...we had a legitimate shot at a 1-seed that year. Those were the golden days of C-USA, when Marquette, Louisville, Memphis, Charlotte, and Cincy were regulars in the tourney, and teams like St. Louis, UAB, and DePaul were good enough to round out what was usually a 5-6 bid conference.

Anyway...when we lost to ECU, we went from being an almost certain 2-seed and possible 1-seed all the way down to a 3. The conference tournament doesn't hurt you if you make the final, or if you lose to another team that's projected as a top-4 seed, but a loss to a bubble team or taking a bad loss can definitely knock a team down a seed line or two, even among the top seeds. And if Marquette wins out including at MSG, the committee will be looking to split hairs about where they end up. If we're 2nd in the Big East, win the BE Tourney, have a top-5 RPI, and come in having won 17/18 including 10 of those wins over tourney teams (assuming 3 in the BET) it'd be real hard to keep us off the two line, especially if you're looking at other teams that slipped up against good competition while we were beating the likes of Georgetown and Syracuse.

Hypothetically...of course.

And regardless, definitely better than being TBW again!

Good example with MU from 2003. However, if the team that lost to the equivalent of ECU had Duke or North Carolina or Kentucky on the front of their jerseys, I don't think the loss would have mattered.

Ideally, all those teams listed in the top 8 will get blown out early in their conf tournaments, MU can rolls through to the BET title and we can revisit this topic and I'll tell you how wrong I was.

[brewcity77]

Good example with MU from 2003. However, if the team that lost to the equivalent of ECU had Duke or North Carolina or Kentucky on the front of their jerseys, I don't think the loss would have mattered.

Ideally, all those teams listed in the top 8 will get blown out early in their conf tournaments, MU can rolls through to the BET title and we can revisit this topic and I'll tell you how wrong I was.

And if Marquette rolls to the BET title and we are still a 3-seed, I think I'll happily admit the same, grinning as we hang a banner and are still well-positioned to make a deep tourney run

[TJ]

Except of course for 2009, when the Big East had three #1 seeds.

This is not the 2009 Big East.  That year the conference was amazing.

[dwaderoy2004]

All I'm saying is there are no limits to certain seeds based on conference.  If MU wins out, 29-5 (15-3) winning 17 out of 18 and being Big East tourney champs would have us clearly in the discussion for a #1 seed.  Especially if the committee looks at our losing 4 out of 6 midseason as learning how to play without Otule.

[TJ]

I think we could play our way up to a 2.  SU and UK have #1's pretty much locked up.  I think at least 2 more of those top 8 teams are going to have a good enough resume to warrant a 1 seed over us.  If we play well the rest of the way we will be a definite 3 with an outside chance at a 2 based on how the committee looks at things or if someone gets a couple losses.  Just have to win out and see what happens.