So....What are we ranked on Monday - 1/6/2025?

[tower912]

just received the "team rankings' thing-only a 12% chance at auto bid?  wonder who their actuary is?  a madison grad?

That means that whatever your source is has determined by their system that MU has a 12% chance of winning the Big East tournament and getting the automatic bid for the league.

[🏀]

Illinois?  My guess is we will be around #28.

[Scoop Snoop]

That means that whatever your source is has determined by their system that MU has a 12% chance of winning the Big East tournament and getting the automatic bid for the league.

And based upon the current status, they probably have it as a three-way fight between UCONN, Xavier and PC. 

[CountryRoads]

The current process that people who vote in the AP go through is a bit out of whack and there should be more of a weekly recalibration effort.

Teams that are currently ranked don't get punished for their best wins not being good anymore (example Badgers vs #13 Maryland). Also as long as currently ranked teams don't lose, they move up if teams ahead of them lose even if they don't play that week or eek out close wins in buy games or horrible conference opponents (UW is another example of this). The voters don't care about the games as long as they don't lose.

Only when a team gets bumped from the rankings is this recalibration done and the teams full body of work is reanalyzed before they make it back in. Voters won't care much about our Baylor win anymore, but we wouldn't have been punished for it had we never fallen out in the first place.

MU is clearly one of the Top25 teams in the country right now and if you start with a blank slate, I don't see how you don't put them on there. Unfortunately for us, it's done more in the way the poster above broke it down.

[Scoop Snoop]

The current process that people who vote in the AP go through is a bit out of whack and there should be more of a weekly recalibration effort.

Teams that are currently ranked don't get punished for their best wins not being good anymore (example Badgers vs #13 Maryland). Also as long as currently ranked teams don't lose, they move up if teams ahead of them lose even if they don't play that week or eek out close wins in buy games or horrible conference opponents (UW is another example of this). The voters don't care about the games as long as they don't lose.

Only when a team gets bumped from the rankings is this recalibration done and the teams full body of work is reanalyzed before they make it back in. Voters won't care much about our Baylor win anymore, but we wouldn't have been punished for it had we never fallen out in the first place.

MU is clearly one of the Top25 teams in the country right now and if you start with a blank slate, I don't see how you don't put them on there. Unfortunately for us, it's done more in the way the poster above broke it down.

Yep. Whether it is laziness, cowardice, or something else, voters who ignore close calls in games of ranked teams when they should have won easily are not. in my opinion, doing a very good job.

[WhiteTrash]

The voters, being human, have a natural inclination to defend their previous votes; as evidenced by UNC holding the no.1 spot even after their start to the season.  People would rather think they are right than be honest. We are almost all guilty of this and smart honest people make lots of money off that mentality in the stock market every day.

[BallBoy]

If MU doesn't crack the Top 25 now, it is going to be very hard to break in and stay in for next vote. They would need to beat both UConn and Xavier otherwise the voters will count the loss as reason to keep them out.

Regardless, I think MU needs another big win to get in. I think most voters want a team to either 1. Have a big W or 2. a long win streak.   

[Newsdreams]

35

[Scoop Snoop]

The voters, being human, have a natural inclination to defend their previous votes; as evidenced by UNC holding the no.1 spot even after their start to the season.  People would rather think they are right than be honest. We are almost all guilty of this and smart honest people make lots of money off that mentality in the stock market every day.

This is fair. I was too harsh.

[Hards Alumni]

The voters, being human, have a natural inclination to defend their previous votes; as evidenced by UNC holding the no.1 spot even after their start to the season.  People would rather think they are right than be honest. We are almost all guilty of this and smart honest people make lots of money off that mentality in the stock market every day.

Yep, cognitive bias.

[#UnleashSean]

Only rankings that matter are net and kenpom. Marquette is looking great in those.

[PointWarrior]

50% true....

Only rankings that matter are net and kenpom. Marquette is looking great in those.

[bilsu]

If MU doesn't crack the Top 25 now, it is going to be very hard to break in and stay in for next vote. They would need to beat both UConn and Xavier otherwise the voters will count the loss as reason to keep them out.

Regardless, I think MU needs another big win to get in. I think most voters want a team to either 1. Have a big W or 2. a long win streak.

These are games that the voters are likely to watch. Looking good in a loss may raise MU's profile in their minds.

[DoctorV]

25 or 24.

Providence will slide in around 20ish.

UConn will stay around the top 5.

Kansas State will jump in higher than Providence with a massive jump

[The Lens]

Gary Parrish has us 23rd. 

[goldeneagle91114]

I think we're over analyzing this. The voters obviously place a lot of value in overall record. As of last weeks voting there was not a single 4 loss team ranked, and we had four losses.

Now this week there are teams with 4 loses and we'll be evaluated against them.

We lose one (or two) this week and we'll for sure not be  ranked because voters won't vote for a five loss (or six) loss team.

[GoldenEagles03]

Looking at the teams ahead of us, I think the highest team we could pass is #19 Baylor who lost twice at home (though to solid teams by a combined 4 points). We're also definitely getting hopped by Providence. Here's what the last week has looked like for the teams between us and Baylor:

#19 Baylor (520 votes) L vs. TCU, L vs. K-State
#20 Missouri (329) L @Arkansas W vs. Vandy
#21 New Mexico (290) L @Fresno State L vs. UNLV
#22 Auburn (287) L @Georgia, W vs. Arkansas
#23 Charleston (116) W @North Carolina A&T W vs. Delaware
#24 Ohio State (114) L vs. Purdue ??? @Maryland
#25 Iowa State (94) W @Oklahoma W @TCU
ORV1 LSU (83) L @Kentucky L @TAMU
ORV2 SDSU (72) W @Wyoming
ORV3 Mississippi State (62) L @Tennessee W vs. Ole Miss
ORV4 Kentucky (53) W vs. LSU L @Alabama
ORV5 K-State (41) W @Texas W @Baylor
ORV6 Illinois (21) L @Northwestern W vs. Wisconsin
ORV7 Marquette (20) W @St. John's W vs. Georgetown
ORV8 Providence (14) W vs. UConn W vs. St. John's

Definitely Passing
Illinois
Kentucky
Mississippi State
LSU
New Mexico

Maybe Passing
Ohio State (depends on what they do vs. Maryland tomorrow)
Auburn
Baylor (I think we pass them but that's a big vote gap to overcome)

Definity Not Passing
Kansas State
San Diego State
Iowa State
Charleston
Mizzou

My guess is that at best we can sneak in at #25. If Ohio State wins tomorrow, I think we end up as the first team left out

Should be able to add #15 Indiana to the DEFINITELY PASSING category.

Looking like they are about to lose to Northwestern for an 0-2 week.  They'll drop to 10-5 on the year.

*Actually 8 minutes left, I thought it was 3.  If Northwestern holds on, point stands.*

[Shooter McGavin]

IU missing players but NW making them look bad.  Until IU is over .500 in conference they should not be ranked.

[GoldenEagles03]

IU missing players but NE making them look bad.  Until IU is over .500 in conference they should not be ranked.

About to fall to 1-3 with Penn State, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Michigan State on deck.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Should be able to add #15 Indiana to the DEFINITELY PASSING category.

Looking like they are about to lose to Northwestern for an 0-2 week.  They'll drop to 10-5 on the year.

*Actually 8 minutes left, I thought it was 3.  If Northwestern holds on, point stands.*

They should be added to the maybe passing list. I missed that they were paying today. Two losses will make them drop big but a 530ish vote gap is a large one to overcome

[MU82]

They should be added to the maybe passing list. I missed that they were paying today. Two losses will make them drop big but a 530ish vote gap is a large one to overcome

Agree about the large gap, but I wouldn't be surprised that a lot of people who voted for Indiana in the 12-20 range the past couple weeks don't vote for them at all now.

[Shooter McGavin]

Agree about the large gap, but I wouldn't be surprised that a lot of people who voted for Indiana in the 12-20 range the past couple weeks don't vote for them at all now.

Agreed.  Talk about bias if they did.  1-3 in conference does not warrant a vote in any universe except Indiana's fan base.

[NolongerWarriors]

Why would MU be ranked when they don't have a single good win?

[The Equalizer]

I think we're over analyzing this. The voters obviously place a lot of value in overall record. As of last weeks voting there was not a single 4 loss team ranked, and we had four losses.

Now this week there are teams with 4 loses and we'll be evaluated against them.

We lose one (or two) this week and we'll for sure not be  ranked because voters won't vote for a five loss (or six) loss team.

I think some voters might be waiting for a significant Big East win.  So far our record looks great, but the schedule is not the most challenging. Before this week (in which the voters didn't think we merited top 25 status), our conference record included:
- A win over short-handed Creighton, which is probably discounted in the minds of the voters
- A win over meh Villanova team
- A close loss to Providence
- A home win over meh Seton Hall

We add this week's 2-win performance against teams with a combined 1-11 league record.  Good for us to have won, but nobody that was on the fence is going to have their minds changed because we beat St. Johns and Georgetown.

We need to win this week to make a meaningful statement.

[Ardmore Mug]

It's really quite Simple! ! !  just WIN Baaaby, and the rest will take care of itself ! ! !