Projected Starting Line Up

[Marqus Howard]

Wow.  I think you're predicting way too much from him.  I expect him to have a good season, but Dwyane Wade averaged 21.5 ppg the year he lead us to the Final Four and was selected with the #5 overall draft pick.  And that was in the CUSA.  If DJO averages 21+ ppg this year I will be shocked and admit that I am wrong.  I would guess 16-17 ppg.

Lazar averaged 18 ppg his senior year and Jimmy averaged 16 ppg his senior year.

DJO struggled with his shooting for large stretches of last season, and still managed to average 16 ppg. I think 21 might be a little too much, but 18-19 ppg seems attainable if he can improve his shooting percentage.

[bilsu]

DJO 16 last year
Add 1 more 3, one more 2 and 2 more free throws and he is at 23. Will he, I do not know, but it is not hard imagining him being able to do this especially if his shooting percentages improve.

[Ellenson Guerrero]

You realize that adding "one" three pointer a game is a 4% increase in MU's overall scoring for the season? Not exactly a toss in?

[wadesworld]

Since Marquette has joined the Big East in 2005, a total of 7 players have averaged over 20 ppg from the Big East, with 1 of them doing it in 3 different seasons and another doing it in 2 different seasons.  So a total of 10 seasons have been played by a player where he averaged 20 ppg or more in the Big East in the 6 years Marquette has been a part of the Big East.  Of these 10 seasons, 4 of them were from players whose teams made it to the NCAA Tournament, while 6 were from players on teams that missed the NCAA Tournament.  9 of these players were on teams in which they were relied on to score a very large portion of their teams points, while just one was on a team that had some balance to it.

In 2010-2011, only 2 players in the Big East scored over 20 ppg.  Marshawn Brooks (25)  and Kemba Walker (21) they were both players that were leaned on to score a large portion of their team's points.

In 2009-2010, only 3 players averaged over 20 ppg.  Harangody (22), Dominique Jones from USF (21) and Hazell (20).  Again, these are all guys who were leaned on to score disproportionate amount of their team's points, and 2 of the 3 teams were awful teams.

In 2008-2009, only Harangody (23) and Hazell (23) averaged over 20 ppg, with McNeal just under it.  Notre Dame was terrible that year and Seton Hall is always terrible.

In 2007-2008, only Luke Harangody averaged over 20 ppg (20.4).  They were very good that year.

In 2006-2007, not a single player averaged even 19 ppg in the Big East.

In 2005-2006, only Quincy Douby for Rutgers (25) and Randy Foye (20.5) averaged over 20 ppg.  Rutgers was terrible, and Randy Foye I would say is the biggest exception to what I am pointing out, as Villinova was stacked and balanced (at least between 3 studs much like a slightly better version of Matthews, James, McNeal).

With all of the talk about how balanced the team will be this year, how Buzz finally has 11 high-major players, how we will be able to sub 5 guys at a time, how we will finally have more than a 7 person rotation, etc., I just do not see how any one player is going to score 20+ ppg for us next year.  If somebody does, then I worry that we are not nearly as deep or balanced as everyone seems to think.  Obviously, Kemba Walker and UConn had a successful year, but I think that is an exception to the rule.  I think when you see a guy averaging a ridiculous amount of points, his team typically stinks and he is throwing up 30 shots a game like Brooks for Providence and Jeremy Hazzell when he was at Seton Hall.  I think averaging 20 ppg over an entire season is an extremely difficult thing to do, especially in a conference like the Big East where every night you are grinding and battling, and on a team where there is supposed to be a ton of talent all around and scoring coming from everyone.  If I am wrong, again, I will gladly admit to it at the end of the season.  I just do not see it.

[wadesworld]

It would also be interesting to look into how often a player that already leads his team in scoring/is already the star of the team as a junior makes a jump of 5+ ppg in his senior season.  My guess is that it doesn't happen very often.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

DJO's scoring avg. might actually be determinrd by the other guards.

If Blue and Cadougan can shoot well enough to provide some effective outside scoring, DJO will avg. 17 (efficiently). If they can't, DJO might have to be more of a volume shooter and could avg. 20+, but probably not as efficient. Can't be picky on jumpers when you are the only guard that can make them.*

*frosh. 3pt abilities are TBD.

[brewcity77]

It would also be interesting to look into how often a player that already leads his team in scoring/is already the star of the team as a junior makes a jump of 5+ ppg in his senior season.  My guess is that it doesn't happen very often.

Well, it should be noted that DJO didn't exactly lead the team by a landslide. Over 37 games, he scored 2 more points (584) than Jimmy Butler (582), an average of 0.054 points per game. Without JFB, the expectation will be on DJO to lead the team. Also, DJO had a craptacular start to the season. If you look at what he did from the start of the Big East season onward, he averaged 17.4 ppg, so I'm actually projecting closer to a (still sizable) 3.6 ppg jump in his scoring.

Based on reports from over the summer, and I know how people love to ignore those (often with good cause), DJO sounds like he's been playing like one of the best players in the country. If not for so many guys staying in school (Barnes, Sullinger, Jones) I would be touting DJO for first team All-American. Even still, my prediction is he makes second team All-American along with first team Big East and quite possibly BE POY.

I think our offense will be as better than it was last year. But JFB scored almost 16 ppg. That's a lot to make up. If DJO doesn't start in bad form (17.4 ppg), has a 2 ppg improvement based on his personal improvement, and can pick up 2 ppg in the "replace Jimmy" effort, I can easily see him scoring 21+.

EDIT: And if we're talking strictly about starting lineups, there's no way I see Gardner starting over Otule. Not because of CO's defense, not because of DG's offense, but simply because of the importance of winning the possession battle. Unless Jamil Wilson can consistently outjump Otule, Chris will be out there to win the tip. Even if DG becomes a 25 mpg guy and Otule is his 12 mpg backup, I still expect CO to start.

[MUMac]

My first thought is that this year is the most cut-and-dried starting lineup since Buzz's first year. My second is that you're underestimating DJO's points. I think he's really going to light it up. I'd pencil him in for 21+ ppg this year.

There's only been 10 or so players in MU history to average more than 20 ppg.  Probably 5 or so with 21+ ppg.  That's restricted air you are predicting.

I don't think DJO does it for three reasons:  1. He is far too unselfish and sometimes seems self conscious if he takes too many shots. 2. This team has a lot of potential scorers, and he is one of many options. 3. This team has significant depth and I am not sure Buzz plays him the minutes he would need to put up those numbers.

I hope you are correct, but I think that is a tad high.

[bilsu]

You realize that adding "one" three pointer a game is a 4% increase in MU's overall scoring for the season? Not exactly a toss in?

That is not exactly true, because the shot he takes gets taken away from someone else. Last year I felt Butler should of shot more and DJO less. Now Butler is gone, presumably replaced by Wilson. I do not think Wilson will take more shots than Butler. I would think overall Cadougan would shoot less than Buycks. It is all about who is going to take the shots and DJO is simply the most aggressive player on the team in that area. Overall, I would expect MU's scoring average to increase rather than decrease, but we are probably talking by a point or two.

[Canadian Dimes]

Ok I read the entire string and have to make a comment:

Maybe more of a plea!!   Can all of you out there who keep wanting to throw DJO in there as a potential backup to Junior at the 1, for the love of God, please stop?!

DJO is a great guard and I really like the kid and love what he brings to MU.  I am hoping he has an amazing season and enjoys tremendous personal and team success.

However, he is about the farthest thing from a PG as we have on the team.  He has never in 2 years ran the point, despite people on message boards time and again saying he is an option.  In fact, last year Butler brought the ball up on rare occasion as maybe a rare default PG.  Never DJO. 

Please please please stop offering that DJO might back up Cadougan. 

Buzz Williams recruited Derrick Wilson and won a recruiting battle over Stanford, Georgia Tech, and Notre Dame.  Anthony Solomon told me he really liked his game.

Derrick Wilson is our back up point guard.  If something happens where neither Junior or Derrick can be in the game DJO will not be the PG!!!! Stop!!


P.S. It would not surprise me to see Vander Blue start at the 3 and move Jamil Wilson to the 4.  The loss of Eric Wiliams leaves us very short at the 4-5 positions and Jae Crowder's penchant for picking up early fouls could create problems.  Could see Vander play a few minutes or until the first TV t.o. where we then go back to 2 guards and bring Jae in at the 4, ala last year.  Hopefully, a year in helps Jae become more discretionary with his fouls.

P.P.S.  I think Juan Anderson has a world of talent and will in time become a really good player.  However, I believe those expecting much out of him this year will be disappointed.  While very skilled he is also very slight.  He will go from being the biggest strongest player on the court in HS to being the skinniest weakest player on the court this year.  However, a year of training table, glass after glass of Amplified Mass and hundreds of hours in the weight room and I beleive he will undergo the transformation necessary to let his skill shine thru.
   

[Aughnanure]

Any word on Jamail Jones?

[dgies9156]

I know this thread has probably been posted a dozen times, but I thought i would start one up again
Here is my projected starting Line up with projected stats, thoughts?

1 Cadougan 6 ppg 4.5 apg
2 DJO 18ppg
3 Jamil Wilson 10ppg 5 rpg
4 Jae Crowder 14ppg 7 rpg
5 Chris Otule 8 ppg 6rpg

I am still hoping there is a chance Vander Blue cracks the line-up. I recognize that he really has to step up to do it, but the young man has talent and it would be good for our program for a Top 50 recruit to develop under Buzz's leadership.

Nonetheless, I agree with many posters that this is a dynamic line-up that looks great on paper.

[GGGG]

Conversely, I've actually heard Mayo hasn't looked so hot, even on the offensive end. It's still very early (we'll know a lot more once they start full-group practice), but I find it interesting Rothstein would tweet something like that given what I've heard about his performance.

I have heard that Mayo has had stretches.  He's an inconsistent freshman.  My guess is that we will go stretches where he amazes us, and stretches where we want to pull our hair out.  Also, we have no idea what his defense is going to be like.

[RyanConroy]

I have heard that Mayo has had stretches.  He's an inconsistent freshman.  My guess is that we will go stretches where he amazes us, and stretches where we want to pull our hair out.  Also, we have no idea what his defense is going to be like.

Yeah, that's what I'm expecting this season. I'm hoping for some consistency in his 3 point shooting. Just based on scouting reports, I think he leaves something to be desired defensively, but let's hope Buzz and the coaches can drill some defensive ability into him.

I've heard Jamail Jones probably figures in as the 2nd or 3rd guy off the bench. Probably 10-15 minutes per game. Again, this is still really early and a lot can change over the next month.

[bilsu]

Ok I read the entire string and have to make a comment:

Maybe more of a plea!!   Can all of you out there who keep wanting to throw DJO in there as a potential backup to Junior at the 1, for the love of God, please stop?!

DJO is a great guard and I really like the kid and love what he brings to MU.  I am hoping he has an amazing season and enjoys tremendous personal and team success.

However, he is about the farthest thing from a PG as we have on the team.  He has never in 2 years ran the point, despite people on message boards time and again saying he is an option.  In fact, last year Butler brought the ball up on rare occasion as maybe a rare default PG.  Never DJO. 

Please please please stop offering that DJO might back up Cadougan. 

Buzz Williams recruited Derrick Wilson and won a recruiting battle over Stanford, Georgia Tech, and Notre Dame.  Anthony Solomon told me he really liked his game.

Derrick Wilson is our back up point guard.  If something happens where neither Junior or Derrick can be in the game DJO will not be the PG!!!! Stop!!


P.S. It would not surprise me to see Vander Blue start at the 3 and move Jamil Wilson to the 4.  The loss of Eric Wiliams leaves us very short at the 4-5 positions and Jae Crowder's penchant for picking up early fouls could create problems.  Could see Vander play a few minutes or until the first TV t.o. where we then go back to 2 guards and bring Jae in at the 4, ala last year.  Hopefully, a year in helps Jae become more discretionary with his fouls.

P.P.S.  I think Juan Anderson has a world of talent and will in time become a really good player.  However, I believe those expecting much out of him this year will be disappointed.  While very skilled he is also very slight.  He will go from being the biggest strongest player on the court in HS to being the skinniest weakest player on the court this year.  However, a year of training table, glass after glass of Amplified Mass and hundreds of hours in the weight room and I beleive he will undergo the transformation necessary to let his skill shine thru.
   

I think the idea that he will play back up point guard comes from the fact he attended a guards camp in early summer where he was reported to have been working on point guard skills. Also, if he can demonstrate that he can play point his draft status will increase. Given that, it is possible Buzz will play him there to increase his chances.

[GGGG]

I hope Buzz doesn't play DJO at point to increase his draft chances.  He should play him there because he is the best available option.

[MerrittsMustache]

I think the idea that he will play back up point guard comes from the fact he attended a guards camp in early summer where he was reported to have been working on point guard skills. Also, if he can demonstrate that he can play point his draft status will increase. Given that, it is possible Buzz will play him there to increase his chances.

If DJO honed his PG skills in order to help his draft stock, then Buzz will play him at PG only if his PG skills have been honed enough that Buzz has confidence in him playing that position over anyone else. Buzz isn't going to play him at PG simply to help his draft stock if there's a better option available.

[bilsu]

If DJO honed his PG skills in order to help his draft stock, then Buzz will play him at PG only if his PG skills have been honed enough that Buzz has confidence in him playing that position over anyone else. Buzz isn't going to play him at PG simply to help his draft stock if there's a better option available.

Obviously, if DJO is not a good option at point, playing him there would not improve his draft chances. I actually think Blue will be the back up point, but I could see DJO getting spot time there.