[Cracked Sidewalks] Swing men are better than 7-footers and nice SI article on Value Add

[CrackedSidewalksSays]

Swing men are better than 7-footers and nice SI article on Value Add

Written by: jpudner@concentricgrasstops.com (bamamarquettefan1)

Deonte Burton, the 28th best 2013 player in the country according to Rivals, will reportedly be on campus this week.  While some fans seem purely focused on getting a 7-footer, the fact is that very few 7-footers are very good and that the 6-foot-4 Burton could be the top-rated player signed by Marquette ever.



While our obsession with signing a 7-footer is understandable after watching the Three Amigos success cut short by the lack of any inside presence, MU fans need to understand on one fact when new recruits are announced:



Swing men between 6-4 and 6-8 are the most likely players to emerge as stars, and they are more likely to be great players than those 6-11 or taller.



Sports Illustrated piece on Value Add



Sports Illustrated was kind enough to feature an article on my Value Add system this weekend, and when I look back at the ratings I realized that only ONE out of 101 players 6-foot-11 or taller last year was a top 100 player (Zeller, UNC).



In considering the importance of signing a 7-footer, fans should consider that MU went up against four of the Top 7 in the country this year, and except for Zeller none of these guys compare to a dominant swing man like Burton:





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7 footers (best 7)TeamPointsReboundsBlocks[/tr]

Tyler Zeller	UNC	27	12	0
Kenny Frease	Xavier	12	5	2
Robert Sacre	Gonzaga	5	7	2
Alec Brown	Wisconsin Green Bay	3	8	0
Mike Tisdale	Illinois	DNP
Jason Washburn	Utah	DNP
Garrett Stutz	Wichita St.	DNP
Average vs. MU		12	8	1

So as much as I hope Buzz lands 7-footer Blaise Mbargorba, or at least a 6-foot-11 guy like Prince Ibeh or Phillip Nolan to balance our roster, signing 6-foot-4 Deonte Burton during his reported visit this week would be MUCH bigger for the program so no fan should utter “oh no, another swing man.”



As you can see from the table at the bottom of this post of players by height, players between 6-foot-4 and 6-foot-8 are the most likely to be stars, with 268 of 1724 ranking in the top 500.  



Butler best 6-foot-7 player in country last year



One fact I stumbled onto in sorting Value Adds by height is that Jimmy Butler was the best 6-foot-7 player in the country last year – but perhaps even more exciting is that perhaps the best 2014 player in the country, 6-foot-7 Andrew Wiggins, is considering Marquette.



Sure I love having Chris Otule’s defensive presence, and would love to add a big, but the fact is MU outrebounded their Big East opponents last year due to the play of swingmen, and 6-7/6-6 players Jamil Wilson, Jae Crowder, Jamail Jones and Juan Anderson are likely to keep that going.



The following table shows how many D1 players last year played at each height, how many of those players ranked in the Top 500, who the best was at each height, and the height of each player on Marquette’s roster or at the top of MUs recruiting targets. The figures shown are the Rivals national rankings, which are not out for 2014 players, but all of the 2014s listed will be near the top of the national rankings:





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HeightCountTop 500BestCurrent MU Roster (possible recruits)[/tr]

7-foot-3	2	0	Somogyi, UC-Santa Barbara
7-foot-2	1	0	Bachynski, Arizona State
7-foot-1	6	1	#235 Tisdale, Ill
7-foot-0	34	4	#32 Zeller, UNC	(2014 Blaise Mbargorba)
6-foot-11	58	10	#104 Benson, Oakland	Chris Otule (2012 Prince Ibeh #55, 2012 Phillip Nolan #103)
6-foot-10	148	22	#11 Leuer, Wisconsin
6-foot-9	265	35	#10 Sullinger, OSU	(2014 Paul White,  2013 Kyle Washington, 2012 Chris Washburn #112, 2012 Zach Auguste #94)
6-foot-8	381	60	#7 Williams, AZ	Davante Gardner
6-foot-7	361	49	#21 Butler, MU	Jamil Wilson (2014 Andrew Wiggins)
6-foot-6	349	55	#5 Dahlman, Wofford	Jae Crowder, Jamail Jones, Juan Anderson
6-foot-5	315	49	#15 Brooks, Providence
6-foot-4	318	55	#14 Jenkins, Vandy	Vander Blue, signees Jamal Ferguson and TJ Taylor (2013 Deonte Burton #28)
6-foot-3	314	43	#4 Jenkins, Hofstra	Todd Mayo, Jake Thomas (RS)
6-foot-2	271	32	#3 Fredette, BYU	Darius Johnson-Odom
6-foot-1	237	34	#1 Taylor, Wisc.	Junior Cadougan, Derrick Wilson
6-foot-0	180	29	#8 McConnell, St. Mary’s
5-foot-11	88	10	#80 Hamilton, Oakland
5-foot-10	95	7	#20 Warren, Mississippi
5-foot-9	36	2	#120 Young, Clemson
5-foot-8	12	3	#35 Thomas, Washington
5-foot-7	6	0	Qualls, Grambling
5-foot-6	2	0	Taylor, FL Atlantic

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2011/08/swing-men-are-better-than-7-footers-and.html

[Henry Sugar]

Holy Modesty, Pudner

The entire article on SI is based on you!

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/luke_winn/08/23/Value.add.formula/index.html

[MUMac]

That is damn impressive to have a column written about your work.  Congratulations!

[ATL MU Warrior]

Very Cool BAMA.  Maybe I need to start listening to you and Sugar...

[Silkk the Shaka]

Posters like bama are what make this site worthwhile. Do you ever do any work with Buzz? I know he loves tempo-free stats.

[brewcity77]

Awesome work, bama! Getting some serious props when SI does an article based solely on your work.

[GGGG]

Ditto on the awesome work Bama.  And it shows that Buzz's strategy of multiple switchables is better than 7-foot projects.

[bamamarquettefan]

Thanks guys - while they had called a couple of weeks ago, have to admit I was pretty blown away when the article hit last night.  Thanks to Cracked Sidewalks for giving me the platform for all my crazy ideas and MUScoop for creating the back-and-forth forum so that some of you can give me constructive criticism when I start down the wrong path!

[Marqus Howard]

Awesome post. It'd be great if we could get Ender - I mean Andrew Wiggins, but the list of schools after him is insane. His father played in the NBA and his mother was an Olympic athlete. Being a superstar athlete is in his blood.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Very sweet....not only that, you worked in some business pub to boot  

I think your previous work (and Pomeroy) indicated that Bigs make a statistical difference on defense. Interesting too that 10 out of first 20 drafted in NBA were PF's or Centers, then only 13 out of 40 for the remainder. Also interesting that the media has proclaimed UCONN the favorite now that Drummond committed.

Wilson and Anderson are going to star at MU as did the switchables in that height range before them under Buzz (Wes, Zar, JFB).  

One nit, please add Steve Taylor to the recruit list.  

So, on to my question in regard to your statement on Burton:  What do you see statistically to make your claim that the "the 6-foot-4 Burton could be the top-rated player signed by Marquette ever"?  The kid is an absolute athletic stud, but that would be a high hurdle.  I am interested in your perspective.

Thanks...great stuff.

[mileskishnish72]

Way cool, Bama.

[dwaderoy2004]

well done, sir.  Luke Winn is probably my favorite college hoops writer, so this just adds to my respect for him...

[GGGG]

well done, sir.  Luke Winn is probably my favorite college hoops writer, so this just adds to my respect for him...

Even though he grew up in a big Badger household?   

[bamamarquettefan]

Posters like bama are what make this site worthwhile. Do you ever do any work with Buzz? I know he loves tempo-free stats.

I have actually never talked to Buzz or any of the coaches despite our shared love of number crunching!

On Dr Blackheart's question about my note that, "6-foot-4 Burton could be the top-rated player signed by Marquette ever," that was not statistically based - just based on the fact that he is on the verge of breaking the Rivals Top 25 so presumably could be a 5-star if he moves up just a couple of spots.  And gosh, sorry Steve Taylor wasn't typed in teh 6-foot-7 box, I'd like to fix that but don't want it to repost the article here.

[brewcity77]

I have actually never talked to Buzz or any of the coaches despite our shared love of number crunching!

On Dr Blackheart's question about my note that, "6-foot-4 Burton could be the top-rated player signed by Marquette ever," that was not statistically based - just based on the fact that he is on the verge of breaking the Rivals Top 25 so presumably could be a 5-star if he moves up just a couple of spots.  And gosh, sorry Steve Taylor wasn't typed in teh 6-foot-7 box, I'd like to fix that but don't want it to repost the article here.

Weren't Doc Rivers, Kerry Trotter, and Bernard Toone rated higher? I thought they were all top-10 type players.

[Nukem2]

Weren't Doc Rivers, Kerry Trotter, and Bernard Toone rated higher? I thought they were all top-10 type players.

Not Trotter, though he was a BurgerBoy. Butch Lee, Mo Lucas, Jim Chones, Walter Downing and Jim Boylan were all in  a Top 10 list in their day.

[mr.MUskie]

Nice work, Bama!

[mu_hilltopper]

BTW, some may not know .. John wrote a book about MU Basketball:

http://www.amazon.com/Ultimate-Hoops-Guide-Marquette-University/dp/1427403090/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1314568684&sr=8-1

[kryza]

BTW, some may not know .. John wrote a book about MU Basketball:

http://www.amazon.com/Ultimate-Hoops-Guide-Marquette-University/dp/1427403090/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1314568684&sr=8-1

I don't know what's more impressive, being a published author mentioned in SI or being a father of 9 children! Either way, congratulations are in order! 

[bamamarquettefan]

I don't know what's more impressive, being a published author mentioned in SI or being a father of 9 children! Either way, congratulations are in order! 

LOL. Well, the 9 children use up what money I make, and being published took away hundreds of billable hours, so together they are probably a recipe for bankruptcy, but thanks :-)

On the highest ranking, I should have clarified that I meant if he signs and improves a bit on his #28 Rivals ranking he might be the highest in the modern era of high school rankings, but I do see that the Basketball Encyclopedia goes back to Trottier as #17, Doc Rivers #8, but has no record for of Al's great recruits - several of whom he wouldn't match.  Perhaps I should just use, "potentially the biggest recruit since Rivers" if making a statement like that in the future, and even at that he has not caught Trottier or Blue in the rankings yet.

[Henry Sugar]

http://thebiglead.com/index.php/2011/08/30/jordan-taylor-wisconsins-point-guard-is-loved-by-the-stat-guys/

The concept of Offensive Value Add was picked up by The Big Lead, where they question Taylor as the #1 selection. 

[Blackhat]

Congratulations bama!

[bilsu]

I think the comparison is somewhat skewed by the fact that any bigman with talent ends up in the pros early. There simply are not many really good bigmen in college to compare to.

[nycwarrior]

+1 to Pudner props.

[karavotsos]

http://thebiglead.com/index.php/2011/08/30/jordan-taylor-wisconsins-point-guard-is-loved-by-the-stat-guys/

The concept of Offensive Value Add was picked up by The Big Lead, where they question Taylor as the #1 selection. 

I agree with the big lead, in this case, as I think I've expressed before.  I think it was Martin Luther King Jr who said, "sabermetrics works in baseball because its an individual sport masquerading as a team sport, but it doesn't work in basketball because its a team sport masquerading as an individual sport."  I think that's from '57.  Triple Rock speech.