Impact Freshman for 2011-2012 team?

[NersEllenson]

Turning the attention back to basketball matters, what are everyone's thoughts on which incoming freshman will see the most court time/have the most impact, if any at all?

Tough call in my book, Juan seems to have the most versatility and as a result seems most likely to see the most PT, but Mayo has really impressed me from what I've seen of him (albeit video clips) - Mayo has a great pace to his game/great rhythm/smooth - think he can score it in a lot of ways too.  Wilson could see some spot minutes at backup PG, and he certainly seems to have a tough makeup and Big East ready body right now.  Should be interesting to see how it transpires - ironically this is Buzz's lowest rated recruiting class, yet for some reason I feel it could turn out to be his best..

[77ncaachamps]

I think it'd be in this order:  Mayo, Wilson, Anderson.

I saw Juan play and think he can have an impact but the difference between him and the other two is his body.

Mayo and Wilson look BE ready: they're built to take the pounding. Anderson will be silky smooth a la Tayshaun Prince, but will hopefully fill out his frame over his 4 years in the Mil. When he does that, watch out.

[TedBaxter]

I think it will be Mayo, Anderson and Wilson.

Todd Mayo may be the second best natural scorer after Darius Johnson-Odom in the backcourt and maybe the whole team next year and will be in the backcourt rotation with DJO, Junior Cadougan and Vander Blue and I think Derrick Wilson will be the 5th guard as a freshman.  I'm not so sure that Mayo isn't the best option to back up Cadougan at the point next year.

Juan Anderson will have to play with only 4 forwards in the rotation, unless Andre Walker is added to the team.

[National Champs]

walker is going to Xavier according to cbs sports

[bamamarquettefan]

Well, not just trying to present all the options, but I believe Juan Anderson is easily the top player when he hits the court for the first game. As usual though, I am going on stats more than trusting my eyes on the videos.  However, it is important to understand when watching the videos that Juan was playing with and against players at a much higher level than Mayo and Wilson.

www.masseyratings.com basically has set up a Pomeroy type scale for high school teams, though you need to go through the match-ups page to get to it.  However, here are the projected scores of how each of the three player's teams would have been expected to fare against the gold standard, St. Anthony's of New Jersey:

Juan Anderson   Castro Valley (CA)   51   62
Derrick Wilson   Hotchkiss (CT)   50   74
Todd Mayo   Notre Dame (MA)   49   77

So Anderson was playing at a very high level that could have competed with the best high school teams in the land, while Mayo and Wilson were playing at a much lower level in New England.

I guess I'm in the camp that the jump from high school to the Big East is huge, but if you were at least playing at a very high level in high school you are more court ready then if not.  I'm just not sure New England basketball prepared Mayo and Wilson for Day 1, but there is no doubt they have the tools to be great so hopefully all 3 will excel.

[TedBaxter]

Well, not just trying to present all the options, but I believe Juan Anderson is easily the top player when he hits the court for the first game. As usual though, I am going on stats more than trusting my eyes on the videos.  However, it is important to understand when watching the videos that Juan was playing with and against players at a much higher level than Mayo and Wilson.

Really?  According to one source, Rivals.com, Todd Mayo was playing on the same team with the #9 player from the 2011 class in Khem Birch (Pittsburgh), the #8 player in the 2012 class in Ricky Ledo and the #123 ranked player in the 2012 class in Myles Davis and Mayo was the leading scorer.  Notre Dame Prep had 8 players sign with D1 schools last year and that didn't include Ledo or Davis, so in effect, they had at least 10 D1 players last year.

Notre Dame Prep played most of their games in the northeast against teams with 5th year prep players and in almost every game they played, at least one player on the other team had signed with a high major D1 program and while Juan Anderson played against some very good high school competition, it wasn't as good as what Mayo faced on average last year and I don't buy the Massey Ratings one bit with the Notre Dame Prep score.

http://www.newenglandrecruitingreport.com/news/article/1860/Prep-Championship-Finals-Set.php

Here's one game where Mayo had 33 points against Brewster Academy.  Brewster's program included the following ranked players: Jakarr Simpson (#51-2011-St. John's), Naadir Tharpe (#92-2011-Kansas), Elijah Carter (#114-2011-Rutgers), Durand Johnson (#120-2011-Pittsburgh) and Mitch McGary (#5-2012).  Also playing for Brewster was Markus Kennedy, a 6-9 Villanova recruit.
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[GGGG]

Actually, by pointing out how good Mayo's teammates were, it can be argued that it casts more doubt on him.

I think Juan will get more minutes and will therefore have the bigger impact.  My guess is that he will see the same type of minutes that Vander saw last year.  And honestly, he is the longest of the freshman and we will need some size out there.

[MUMac]

Actually, by pointing out how good Mayo's teammates were, it can be argued that it casts more doubt on him.

Not sure I follow that logic.  He more than held his own playing with those players.  Played against some top competition as well.  I would say he is ready.

Interesting, though, we question the talents and abilities of someone when they do not play with or against top talent and now we question them when they do? 

[Tulsa Warrior]

I think the logic is you could key on Anderson last season because he was the best player by far on his team.  Mayo had so many other good players on his team you couldn't double him or do a special zone to contain him.  Teams had to play Mayo straight up no Mickey Mouse defenses.  That couldn't be said of teams facing Anderson.

[bilsu]

Not sure I follow that logic.  He more than held his own playing with those players.  Played against some top competition as well.  I would say he is ready.

Interesting, though, we question the talents and abilities of someone when they do not play with or against top talent and now we question them when they do? 

I follow the logic. He is not likely to have the best defensive player on him or the defense designed to stop him. Similar to anyone outside of Taylor, Leuer or Nankivil on last years UW team. Defenses had to worry about those three, which allowed the other UW players to have an easier time of it.

[Henry Sugar]

I will believe we have an impact freshman when we actually have one.

[brewcity77]

I think the guy who's best positioned to be an impact freshman is Derrick Wilson. I expect that DJO, Wilson, and Crowder will all be big minute guys. Blue will likely be first off the bench when one of those three is out. If there's 120 mpg at those three slots, I think those four guys will probably eat up 105 of those. That leaves about 15 mpg for Jones, Mayo, and Anderson to split. I'd guess Jones will have first shot at those minutes since he has a year in the system.

While I think Cadougan also plays some pretty sizable minutes, in the 25-28 range, I think that Wilson will have a shot at running the point for about 10-12 mpg. I don't expect huge numbers out of any of our freshmen, but I think he could be a 6 ppg, 3 apg type of guy.

[MUMac]

I follow the logic. He is not likely to have the best defensive player on him or the defense designed to stop him. Similar to anyone outside of Taylor, Leuer or Nankivil on last years UW team. Defenses had to worry about those three, which allowed the other UW players to have an easier time of it.

Sorry, but those 3 dominated the ball, action and scoring.  That is what happens when you play with great players - less opportunities.  Mayo had more than his share of opportunities.  He fit in quite nicely.  As I stated, I do not understand that logic - taken to the conclussion.  Still do not.

I guess Henry is right.  Everyone should be treated skeptically. 

[NersEllenson]

Really?  According to one source, Rivals.com, Todd Mayo was playing on the same team with the #9 player from the 2011 class in Khem Birch (Pittsburgh), the #8 player in the 2012 class in Ricky Ledo and the #123 ranked player in the 2012 class in Myles Davis and Mayo was the leading scorer.  Notre Dame Prep had 8 players sign with D1 schools last year and that didn't include Ledo or Davis, so in effect, they had at least 10 D1 players last year.

Notre Dame Prep played most of their games in the northeast against teams with 5th year prep players and in almost every game they played, at least one player on the other team had signed with a high major D1 program and while Juan Anderson played against some very good high school competition, it wasn't as good as what Mayo faced on average last year and I don't buy the Massey Ratings one bit with the Notre Dame Prep score.

http://www.newenglandrecruitingreport.com/news/article/1860/Prep-Championship-Finals-Set.php

Here's one game where Mayo had 33 points against Brewster Academy.  Brewster's program included the following ranked players: Jakarr Simpson (#51-2011-St. John's), Naadir Tharpe (#92-2011-Kansas), Elijah Carter (#114-2011-Rutgers), Durand Johnson (#120-2011-Pittsburgh) and Mitch McGary (#5-2012).  Also playing for Brewster was Markus Kennedy, a 6-9 Villanova recruit.
.

I tend to agree that playing at Notre Dame prep or Hotchkiss for that matter is playing at a level well above most high school programs.  Hard to argue the talent on Mayo's team - and I'd have to think competing with/against each other at times in practice makes those players better.

By no means would it surprise me to see Mayo be our best freshman, nor would it surprise me if it were Juan.  I would be surprised, however, if it were Derrick Wilson.  What could be interesting to watch is:  Are Mayo and Anderson potentially better than Blue and Jamail Jones?  This is the great thing about recruiting at a high level year in and year out- there is no room for complacency on the part of the existing roster.

[Lennys Tap]

I think the logic is you could key on Anderson last season because he was the best player by far on his team.  Mayo had so many other good players on his team you couldn't double him or do a special zone to contain him.  Teams had to play Mayo straight up no Mickey Mouse defenses.  That couldn't be said of teams facing Anderson.

The talent level was so high on Mayo's team that everyone had to be defended honestly, and by the end of the season he was unquestionably the go to guy on that team. That, coupled with his genetic pedigree, has me excited. I'm thinking his ESPN ratings are simply too low.

[Mobot]

I think the logic is you could key on Anderson last season because he was the best player by far on his team.  Mayo had so many other good players on his team you couldn't double him or do a special zone to contain him.  Teams had to play Mayo straight up no Mickey Mouse defenses.  That couldn't be said of teams facing Anderson.

That's not true.  Anderson played with Roderick Bobbit who averaged 20 points per game (Juan averaged 17).  He was projected to be a D-1 player but will being going the JUCO route due to academics.

[dgies9156]

Dudes, you all are conveniently forgetting Vander Blue's performance last year. Vander was supposed to be an impact freshman for MU last year, but discovered in early January that he was in the Big East, not the WIAA. He had a learning year.

My view is the biggest impact player on next year's team will be Vander. I'm hoping that with a year under his belt, lots of over-the-summer shooting work and some summer league play, that the Vander we expected will be waiting for us in November.

Mayo and Anderson are a year away and I think Wilson may give us some high quality minutes but again, his experience is in the PAC 10, not the Big East!

As Al once said, "The best thing about freshmen is they become sophomores." Geez, was Al right!

[brewcity77]

My view is the biggest impact player on next year's team will be Vander.

I think the biggest impact player will be either DJO or Crowder, with my dark horse hopes pinned on Wilson. But the thread isn't asking about the biggest impact player, it's asking about the biggest impact freshman. Blue's not a freshman, thus he's not part of the argument.

[dwaderoy2004]

Dudes, you all are conveniently forgetting Vander Blue's performance last year. Vander was supposed to be an impact freshman for MU last year, but discovered in early January that he was in the Big East, not the WIAA. He had a learning year.

My view is the biggest impact player on next year's team will be Vander. I'm hoping that with a year under his belt, lots of over-the-summer shooting work and some summer league play, that the Vander we expected will be waiting for us in November.

Mayo and Anderson are a year away and I think Wilson may give us some high quality minutes but again, his experience is in the PAC 10, not the Big East!

As Al once said, "The best thing about freshmen is they become sophomores." Geez, was Al right!

You're thinking of the wrong Wilson.  People are referring to Derrick Wilson, not Jamil Wilson.

[GGGG]

I think the logic is you could key on Anderson last season because he was the best player by far on his team.  Mayo had so many other good players on his team you couldn't double him or do a special zone to contain him.  Teams had to play Mayo straight up no Mickey Mouse defenses.  That couldn't be said of teams facing Anderson.

Thank you.  That is exactly what I meant.  However, Ners point about playing against one another in practice is solid too.

Dudes, you all are conveniently forgetting Vander Blue's performance last year. Vander was supposed to be an impact freshman for MU last year, but discovered in early January that he was in the Big East, not the WIAA.

The competition that JA faced is miles ahead of what Vander faced though.

I will believe we have an impact freshman when we actually have one.

But this is where I tend to fall in the end.  My guess is that none of them will have a substantial impact when all is said and done.  Basically role players.

OTOH, I am expecting a good leap from Jamail this year.  I think he breaks into the rotation and has an impact.

[APieperFan3]

OTOH, I am expecting a good leap from Jamail this year.  I think he breaks into the rotation and has an impact.

I'm drinkin that Kool-Aid as well.

[brewcity77]

But this is where I tend to fall in the end.  My guess is that none of them will have a substantial impact when all is said and done.  Basically role players.

I'd pretty much agree with that too. My thought that Derrick Wilson could be a 6 ppg/3 apg guy isn't exactly what you think of when you're talking "impact freshman".

This isn't really a good year for us to have an impact freshman. DJO, Crowder, Otule and Cadougan have starting spots locked down. It seems likely that Wilson will do the same. At best, maybe someone gets 10-15 mpg off the bench, but I doubt any of them will match the kind of minutes Blue logged last year. If we had a guy who was clearly better than someone already here, along the lines of a Quincy Miller or BJ Young, we might see that impact freshman. But for now, there's a better likelihood of a Mitch McGary or Rodney Purvis in 2012 with a clear lineup vacancy from a departing Jae Crowder or DJO.

[NersEllenson]

It would be a huge boost to the program/team, if both Vander and Jamail can make big strides this off season.  We are really solid at the 4 and 5 positions with any combo of Crowder, Gardner, Otule.  Jamil Wilson should own the 3/4 combo role.  DJO will own the 2, and Junior the 1.

If Vander and Jamail can provide some really good minutes as back-ups, and that the team not take much of a hit offensively/defensively when they enter the game - MU could be really, really good this season.

Would love to see Mayo be able to push Junior for minutes at the point, and Vander for minutes at the 2 due to his very skilled offensive game..

[4everwarriors]

Buzz's goal should be to get this program to the level where this post never exists. In other words, the freshmen are not counted on to save the season, regardless of their incoming stats. Get the system goin' so Buzz reloads, but not redesign each year.

[Bocephys]

Buzz's goal should be to get this program to the level where this post never exists. In other words, the freshmen are not counted on to save the season, regardless of their incoming stats. Get the system goin' so Buzz reloads, but not redesign each year.

I don't know about that, I wouldn't mind discussing the likes of Austin Rivers or Michael Gilchrist.  Those guys impact whatever program they decide to attend.