[Cracked Sidewalks] Bubble Breakdown: Where Marquette Really Stands

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Bubble Breakdown: Where Marquette Really Stands

Written by: noreply@blogger.com (brewcity77)

CS Team prologue:  Please welcome Brewcity77, the newest member of the CS writing team!

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On my way out of the Cincinnati game, I heard a Marquette fan behind me  saying "Well, now they need to beat Seton Hall, and probably get two in  the Big East tournament to get in." Unable to help myself, I interjected  "I really don't think so. One win would certainly be enough, though  they may have a good enough resume even if they lose out." A brief  discussion followed as we exited, and I think I reassured him that  Marquette's situation isn't as dire as many fans and online gurus may  indicate. When you look at Lunardi's Bracketology, Marquette still  hasn't fallen to his Last Four In. Before the Seton Hall loss, the  general consensus was that Buzz's team was in as a 10-seed. Even if that  loss drops them a seed line, they should still be in.

However,  there are a number of worrying criteria that do cast a shadow of doubt  on Marquette's resume. RPI, total losses, all of these factors swirl  around the collective heads of the Marquette team like a grim specter of  doom. I've been of the opinion that these factors aren't as dire as  many say for quite awhile, and to prove (or disprove) my own feelings, I  did a breakdown of Marquette and 29 other teams that are either  considered securely in, on the bubble, or on the outside looking in. The  criteria I used were current RPI, projected Strength of Schedule  (hereafter SOS), out-of-conference (hereafter OOC) RPI,  out-of-conference SOS, wins against RPI top 50 opponents (quality wins),  losses against RPI 101+ opponents (bad losses), the plus/minus rating  comparing quality wins and bad losses (all taken from RPIForecast.com), total current losses, and ratings from both kenpom.com and Sagarin.  Of the 30 teams I compared, 18 should get bids, meaning that for  Marquette to be "worthy" in a category, they need to be in the top 18.

The teams I am comparing Marquette to include all projected at large teams from the latest S-Curve  and includes the following: Utah State, Old Dominion, Tennessee, UCLA,  Michigan State, Georgia, Illinois, Virginia Tech, Gonzaga, St. Mary's,  Butler, Clemson, Boston College, Michigan, Richmond, Missouri State,  UAB, Alabama, Colorado State, Colorado, Oklahoma State, Washington  State, Penn State, Virginia Commonwealth, and Baylor. I also included  USC, Memphis, Nebraska, and UTEP because they were recently added to Lunardi's Last 8 Out.  While some of these teams, notably Utah State, Gonzaga, St. Mary's,  Butler, and Missouri State, are in a position to qualify via an  automatic bid, I included them because they will likely be compared to  Marquette if they fail.

With 30 teams, I have also broken down  the categories into three color classifications. Red means Marquette is  in the bottom ten of the category and that it is bad mark on their  resume. Orange means we are in the middle ten, which will likely yield  5-8 bids, but while not a negative also isn't an overwhelming positive.  Green means Marquette is in the top ten of the category and that it is a  positive on their resume. The numbers I am using have been taken on the  morning of March 6. Now, finally, to the numbers...

[color=red;]RPI[/color] [color=red;">(24/30)Marquette's  RPI of 68 ranks 24th of the 30 teams and is one of their most troubling  numbers. A slight positive is that there are 4 teams ahead of them that  are also in the 61-67 range, which is comparable to Marquette's rating  and would put them in the top 20, just outside the bid-worthy range. If  they managed to win two games in the Big East tournament, that would  move them up to an approximate 55 RPI, which would put them at 17th in  RPI, right around where they need to feel somewhat secure. If they win  one game, they will likely stay around where they are at, or possibly  climb one or two spots. If they lose to Providence, they will fall to  around 80, which would leave them at 28th of the 30 teams and in severe  danger in this category.

[color=#33cc00;">[color=black;">
[color=black;">OOC][/color][/color][color=black;">(28/30)[/color][/color][color=black;">This]
[color=#66ff99;">OOC][/color][color=#ff9900;">(20/30)[color=black;">This][color=black;">[color=#33ff33;">Quality][/color][/color][color=black;">(T4/30)[color=black;">Only][/color][/color][/color][color=black;">Any]
[color=#33ff33;">[/color][/color][/color][color=black;">Marquette]
[color=#33ff33;">
[/color][color=black;">It]
[color=#33ff33;">
[/color][color=black;">How]
[color=#33ff33;">
[/color][color=black;">Similar]
[color=red;">
[/color][color=black;">First,]played[/color]  against that many top 35 RPI teams, that being Georgia, who played 12.  So while this will likely be a negative, Marquette can draw some solace  out of the knowledge that this could turn into a positive for those that  focus strictly on the RPI.

Aggregate Numbers

[/color]Quite  simply, that's a lot of data. Some of it favors Marquette, some of it  could work against them. So I suppose the bottom line is where they rank  amongst these 30 teams that are scrapping for the last 15-18 bids the  Selection Committee [/color]will hand  out. While it's unlikely that all of these factors will be considered  equally by the Committee, that's what I did to determine where these  teams stood. I assigned each category a point value from 1-30, with the  top team getting 30 points per category, ranging down to 1 point for the  bottom. In cases of ties, I assigned all the tied teams the same amount  of total points. Marquette finished 12th of the 30 teams. I actually  expected them to be higher, but huge hits from their RPI and total  losses keep them on the bubble, but seemingly on the right side.


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