Bubble Busters: Who to cheer for

[brewcity77]

I was just cruising the ESPN Championship Week site and noticed that a number of tournaments have already started. While I still think we're in regardless (even if we go 0-2 from here on out) there are plenty of teams out there that could help push us closer to the brink if everything goes balls up from here on out. Here are some of those teams from the early tourneys:

Atlantic Sun -- Belmont: With only 2 top 100 wins and one sub-100 loss, Belmont is a very long shot to get an at-large. But with a 28-4 record and three of their four losses coming by single digits to RPI top 35 teams, it's not unthinkable that the Bruins might sneak in. They also have a projected 55 RPI, though most of their other measurables aren't all that great. Still, it'd be easier if they beat Mercer tonight and followed it up by winning the Atlantic Sun title tomorrow.

Colonial Athletic Association: George Mason or Old Dominion: These two teams are locks, so they are the teams that we'll be pulling for. VCU and Drexel play tomorrow, and either could emerge as a bid-stealer. VCU is on the outside looking in right now, but even if they just managed to get to the final could threaten for an at-large as they would need to beat RPI 23 George Mason and 61 Drexel to get there. Bottom line, cheer for GMU and ODU, and against VCU.

Horizon -- Butler: Butler is the only Horizon team with any real shot of an at-large as Cleveland State's gaudy record features absolutely no quality. So pull for Butler tomorrow against Cleveland State, but it wouldn't hurt to have UW-M make it to the final as it would help keep Milwaukee in line to stay in the RPI top 100. Butler beating UW-M in the final would be a dream scenario for Marquette.

Missouri Valley -- Missouri State: The Bears are becoming famous for being snubbed, and they'll be on the bubble again this year if they don't win their conference tourney. They only have two top 50 wins (both against #50 Wichita State) to compare with 3 sub-100 losses, but a solid 38 RPI. They needed an 11-0 game-ending run to beat Southern Illinois by 2 today, and will likely face tough games from Creighton and Wichita State if they want the MVC title. Let's hope they finally get it done, because no one else in that conference should be at-large worthy.

Patriot League -- Bucknell: The Bison won't be an at-large team, and they should keep their top-100 RPI status regardless, but if they get in, it gives Marquette a guaranteed win over a tourney team. After going 13-1 in conference and decimating Army in the first round, they should be the favorite. Up next is Lehigh on Sunday, a team they beat twice by double-digits. In the final, the spoiler role could be played by 6-seed Lafayette, who took Bucknell to overtime just two weeks ago.

West Coast Conference -- St. Mary's or Gonzaga: Both of these teams are likely in and have double-byes in their conference tourney, so it should be funnel them both to the final pretty easily. However it's possible that the semifinals could see St. Mary's face Portland and Gonzaga face San Francisco, both teams that scored wins over the respective opponents this year. A spoiler here could easily see the WCC get a third bid.

[PaintTouches]

Thanks Brew! I really appreciate all the work you put into your posts.

[Doris Burkes Thong]

Thanks Brew! I really appreciate all the work you put into your posts.

You know I second this same thing. Brew, you're definately one poster that makes this board enjoyable to read.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Thanks Brew! I really appreciate all the work you put into your posts.

+1

[Windyplayer]

West Coast Conference -- St. Mary's or Gonzaga: Both of these teams are likely in and have double-byes in their conference tourney, so it should be funnel them both to the final pretty easily. However it's possible that the semifinals could see St. Mary's face Portland and Gonzaga face San Francisco, both teams that scored wins over the respective opponents this year. A spoiler here could easily see the WCC get a third bid.

If St. Marys is likely in then we're a lock, for pete's sake (assuming we win tonight). The Gaels have two quality wins against St. Johns and Gonzaga (RPI #70). They're 1-4 against the top 50, 2-5 against the top 100, 18 of their 22 wins have come against teams that have an RPI over 100, and two of their losses have come to Portland (RPI #102) and San Diego (RPI #317!--DePaul's RPI is at #238 for some perspective).

[OhioGoldenEagle]

These guys have been doing a "Bubble Watch" every day for the last week or so.  Also good information if you're curious what games you should tune into while sitting on your arses this weekend.

http://www.anonymouseagle.com/

[brewcity77]

If St. Marys is likely in then we're a lock, for pete's sake (assuming we win tonight). The Gaels have two quality wins against St. Johns and Gonzaga (RPI #70). They're 1-4 against the top 50, 2-5 against the top 100, 18 of their 22 wins have come against teams that have an RPI over 100, and two of their losses have come to Portland (RPI #102) and San Diego (RPI #317!--DePaul's RPI is at #238 for some perspective).

Hence why I think we're a lock win or lose today. If we lose, SHU would finish as a top-100 RPI team thanks to their win over St. John's, meaning
we still wouldn't have a bad loss.

[ChicosBailBonds]

If St. Marys is likely in then we're a lock, for pete's sake (assuming we win tonight). The Gaels have two quality wins against St. Johns and Gonzaga (RPI #70). They're 1-4 against the top 50, 2-5 against the top 100, 18 of their 22 wins have come against teams that have an RPI over 100, and two of their losses have come to Portland (RPI #102) and San Diego (RPI #317!--DePaul's RPI is at #238 for some perspective).

That's the problem, ESPN and others are saying St. Mary's has work to do....