ESPN Bubble Watch

[jesmu84]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

I really believe if the tourney started today, we'd be in. I also believe that when we beat SH tomorrow, we're in. I imagine any wins in the BEast tourney lead to a possible upgrade in seeding for the NCAA.  Having said that, scrolling down to the Big East Conference section of this updated Bubble Watch makes me sad...

[Windyplayer]

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

I really believe if the tourney started today, we'd be in. I also believe that when we beat SH tomorrow, we're in. I imagine any wins in the BEast tourney lead to a possible upgrade in seeding for the NCAA.  Having said that, scrolling down to the Big East Conference section of this updated Bubble Watch makes me sad...

+1. Just win (in dirty Jersey), baby.

[TallTitan34]

No 10-8 team in the 16 team Big East has ever missed the tournament.  Couple that with the expanded field and weak bubble teams, a win tommorrow makes us a lock.

Part of me thinks we are a lock even with a loss.

[PGsHeroes32]

Im about 95% certain that as long as we dont lose our next 2 games we are in.


But thats not what im aiming for. Id like a win tomorrow and atleast 2 in the BET

[brewcity77]

No 10-8 team in the 16 team Big East has ever missed the tournament.  Couple that with the expanded field and weak bubble teams, a win tommorrow makes us a lock.

Part of me thinks we are a lock even with a loss.

Pretty sure you're wrong about the first part. Providence was snubbed as a 10-8 Big East team in 2009. They had a 19-13 overall record and a win over Pittsburgh, but their 72 RPI kept them out of the Big Dance.

However, I think you're right about the second part. I'm planning on doing a more thorough look at the topic, but the only two points the Selection Committee could have against us are 14 losses or not wanting 11 Big East teams in. We really have an excellent resume outside of those two factors.

[Buchec18]

If we lose this game on Saturday that would put us in horrible position going into the tourney. It's a MUST, in my opinion, that we get this win. I'd rather be assured of being in than sitting around on selection sunday and being nervous as to whether we are in or not.

[ChicosBailBonds]

No 10-8 team in the 16 team Big East has ever missed the tournament.  Couple that with the expanded field and weak bubble teams, a win tommorrow makes us a lock.

Part of me thinks we are a lock even with a loss.

Providence was 10-8 in Keno's first year (2008-09 season), AND won their first round BET game, AND beat top 5 Pittsburgh along with Syracuse,  and did not get in.  Their overall record on Selection Sunday was 19-13 with a 10-8 Big East record.  That year, the Big East was considered the greatest conference in college basketball history...three #1 seeds.

[lab_warrior]

If we lose this game on Saturday that would put us in horrible position going into the tourney. It's a MUST, in my opinion

Not just your opinion, mine too.  If we lose, a forlorn Buzz will be talking to CBS on Sunday answering questions about why we didn't get in.

[TallTitan34]

Pretty sure you're wrong about the first part. Providence was snubbed as a 10-8 Big East team in 2009. They had a 19-13 overall record and a win over Pittsburgh, but their 72 RPI kept them out of the Big Dance.

You know I think I may have heard that stat before Selection Sunday in 2009 when they were talking about Providence.  Guess it's outdated now!

Thanks for finding that.

[bilsu]

The next two games are must wins. The best thing that can happen is to have Villianova(at Pitt) and Uconn (Notre Dame) lose, while we win. I would find it hard not to take us, if we have a better conference record than those two. If MU loses they are screwed unless they win 3 Big east tournament games. MU also will have to more work to do if Uconn and Villanova win as we would only be tied with them and they are easily ahead of us in the tournament picture. I think there is more of a chance that they take only 9 teams than that they take all eleven. Eleven will only happen if MU, Villnova and Uconn win their final game and their first team in Big East tournament. I really believe that either DePaul Rutgers or Providence is going to beat one of these teams. I sure hope it is not MU. You can talk all you want about the Big east getting 11 bids, but if you look at who could go from the other conferences there are like only four bids left for Big East. That menas for 9 bids the Big East are pushing out 5 other teams and that is going to happen. To be able to push out another two teams to get to 11 is really questionable. A lot depends on what happens with other teams. Illionis, Michigan and Penn St are sitting at 8-9 in Big Ten. I do not know who they are playing in their final game, but if they get to 9-9 and win the first game in their tournament they are in. Penn St might have to win two. Those are three bids hanging that could easily go either way. You also end up with upsets in other conferences that can make a bid disapear.

[brewcity77]

Everyone who is so up-in-arms right now, do you all realize that it is a virtual impossibility that we will have a bad loss before the Big East tournament? Currently, we don't have a single bad loss. Our current worse loss is to Expected RPI #66 Gonzaga. But right now, Seton Hall is projected to have an RPI of 98. If they beat us, their RPI will certainly go up, probably into the 92-94 range, which will likely mean that they will finish in the top 100 RPI even if they lose their Big East tournament opener. Four top 25 wins combined with zero 100+ losses is a damn strong case for the tournament.

[willie warrior]

Not just your opinion, mine too.  If we lose, a forlorn Buzz will be talking to CBS on Sunday answering questions about why we didn't get in.

said all along that 9-9 will not get us in, and I do not think we will beat SH on their floor. Hope the warriors prove me wrong.

[PGsHeroes32]

Bilsu, you couldnt be anymore wrong.

[brewcity77]

Here's what we should really be hoping for. Of course we want to beat Seton Hall, but if we beat Seton Hall, they won't drop far in the RPI. If they can beat Rutgers in the first round of the Big East tourney, they should still eke into the top 100 RPI, if they win their second round game, that's a lock. Beat SHU Saturday and have them win their first BEast tourney game and that will probably add 2 more top 100 RPI wins to our total.

Either way, we're pretty much a lock already. The only people who are saying otherwise haven't done the research into the other teams on the bubble. I really believe that.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Here's what we should really be hoping for. Of course we want to beat Seton Hall, but if we beat Seton Hall, they won't drop far in the RPI. If they can beat Rutgers in the first round of the Big East tourney, they should still eke into the top 100 RPI, if they win their second round game, that's a lock. Beat SHU Saturday and have them win their first BEast tourney game and that will probably add 2 more top 100 RPI wins to our total.

Either way, we're pretty much a lock already. The only people who are saying otherwise haven't done the research into the other teams on the bubble. I really believe that.

I would assume ESPN has done their research, that's their job.  They have us not as a lock yet....darn close, but not yet.  If we lose tomorrow, we could still get in but it just opens up the doors for a lot of questioning.  Go MU...need a win tomorrow.

[bamamarquettefan]

Providence was 10-8 in Keno's first year (2008-09 season), AND won their first round BET game, AND beat top 5 Pittsburgh along with Syracuse,  and did not get in.  Their overall record on Selection Sunday was 19-13 with a 10-8 Big East record.  That year, the Big East was considered the greatest conference in college basketball history...three #1 seeds.

The similarities with Providence you mention are valid - 10-8 in a great conference after losing non-conference games.  But, if you look at Pomeroy and the non-conference schedules of the two teams there are huge differences.

Providence was the 80th best team according to Pomeroy and their 4 toughest non-conference foes were:
34. Baylor - L by 24 on a nuetral court
56. St. Mary's - L by 6 on nuetral court
69. Boston College - L by 5 away
71. Rhode Island - W by 1 at home

Marquette is ranked the 32nd best team by Pomeroy and 4 toughest opponents were:
2. Duke - L by 5 on nuetral court
7. Wisconsin - L by 5 at home
23. Vandy - L by 1 on road
34. Gonzaga - L by 3 on nuetral court

I've been saying since January I believe MU needs 10 wins between the BE season and tournament

[brewcity77]

Best case scenario is to beat Seton Hall and still get the 9-seed. That gives us another game with DePaul and a likely 20th win. I'd rather the extra win than a day off and more hand-wringing that we didn't do enough to earn a bid.

[Windyplayer]

Best case scenario is to beat Seton Hall and still get the 9-seed. That gives us another game with DePaul and a likely 20th win. I'd rather the extra win than a day off and more hand-wringing that we didn't do enough to earn a bid.

We're a lock if we beat Seton Hall.

[Windyplayer]

The next two games are must wins. The best thing that can happen is to have Villianova(at Pitt) and Uconn (Notre Dame) lose, while we win. I would find it hard not to take us, if we have a better conference record than those two. If MU loses they are screwed unless they win 3 Big east tournament games. MU also will have to more work to do if Uconn and Villanova win as we would only be tied with them and they are easily ahead of us in the tournament picture. I think there is more of a chance that they take only 9 teams than that they take all eleven. Eleven will only happen if MU, Villnova and Uconn win their final game and their first team in Big East tournament. I really believe that either DePaul Rutgers or Providence is going to beat one of these teams. I sure hope it is not MU. You can talk all you want about the Big east getting 11 bids, but if you look at who could go from the other conferences there are like only four bids left for Big East. That menas for 9 bids the Big East are pushing out 5 other teams and that is going to happen. To be able to push out another two teams to get to 11 is really questionable. A lot depends on what happens with other teams. Illionis, Michigan and Penn St are sitting at 8-9 in Big Ten. I do not know who they are playing in their final game, but if they get to 9-9 and win the first game in their tournament they are in. Penn St might have to win two. Those are three bids hanging that could easily go either way. You also end up with upsets in other conferences that can make a bid disapear.

Is this a hunch about how many teams the BEast will get? Because nothing out there indicates that this is the case.

[TallTitan34]

Gotlieb just said unless MU loses to Seton Hall and it's first round game, the Big East is a lock for 11.

[SPCMU06]

Heard that too and it's encouraging.  Let's win today!

[Windyplayer]

Gotlieb just said unless MU loses to Seton Hall and it's first round game, the Big East is a lock for 11.

Gottlieb has always been hesitant to give us credit, so that's quite a statement.

[bobnoxious]

Gotlieb loves to give credit when it's someone elses