Only Scenarios for the Bye - Need to MU, Lou, Pitt* to all win

[wardle2wade]

I spent quite a bit of time running through all scenarios on excel as well as all of the tiebreakers per the BE seeding rules.

The key is MU, Lou, and Pitt winning... all 4 scenarios for MU getting a bye involve these wins.  There is one scenario where Nova wins and we can get the 8th, but I think I may be misinterpreting the tiebreaker on that one.

TO GET 7TH SEED... POSSIBLY 8TH IF I'M MISINTERPRETING TIEBREAKERS
SCENARIO A
MU over @SHU,
LOU over @WVU,
ND over @Uconn,
Gtown over @Cincy,
@Pitt over Nova

TO GET 8TH SEED...
SCENARIO B
MU over @SHU,
LOU over @WVU,
ND over @Uconn
@CINCY over Gtown
@Pitt over Nova

SCENARIO C
MU over @SHU,
LOU over @WVU,
@Uconn over ND
@Cincy over Gtown
@Pitt over Nova

SCENARIO D
MU over @SHU,
LOU over @WVU,
@Uconn over ND
Gtown over @Cincy
@Pitt over Nova

SCENARIO E
NOTE: I may be misinterpreting the tiebreaker incorrectly for MU/WVU/Cincy... if so, then MU comes in 9th, not 8th.
MU over @SHU,
LOU over @WVU,
ND over @Uconn
Gtown over @Cincy
Nova over @Pitt

Some Notes...
1) Surprisingly the Gtown-Cincy and Uconn-ND results don't affect our oppty for a bye in any way... just our seeding (7 or 8).  As long as MU, Louisville, and Pitt win, we get the bye.
2) If we beat SHU, we likely will get between 8-10 with an outside chance for 7 or 11.
3)  The above is not contingent on Cuse beating Depaul, nor St Johns game... those results has no bearing on MU's bye chances.

Feel free to check my math and logic.  I'd be willing to wager a good amount of money this is right.If anyone has any specific questions on how results affect us, I should be able to answer as I have all of them run through.

Again don't take this as bible, the tiebreaker nuances make it difficult to be certain.

[MauraDay]

thanks for figuring this out & posting.

[rocky_warrior]

Wow, thanks for putting that together.

[muguru]

I spent quite a bit of time running through all scenarios on excel as well as all of the tiebreakers per the BE seeding rules.

The key is MU, Lou, and Pitt winning... 4 of the 5 scenarios for MU's bye involvoe those.  There is only one scenario where Nova wins and we can still get it.

TO GET 7TH SEED...
SCENARIO A
MU over @SHU,
LOU over @WVU,
ND over @Uconn,
Gtown over @Cincy,
@Pitt over Nova

TO GET 8TH SEED...
SCENARIO B
MU over @SHU,
LOU over @WVU,
ND over @Uconn
@CINCY over Gtown
@Pitt over Nova

SCENARIO C
MU over @SHU,
LOU over @WVU,
@Uconn over ND
@Cincy over Gtown
@Pitt over Nova

SCENARIO D
MU over @SHU,
LOU over @WVU,
@Uconn over ND
Gtown over @Cincy
@Pitt over Nova

SCENARIO E
MU over @SHU,
LOU over @WVU,
ND over @Uconn
Gtown over @Cincy
Nova over @Pitt

Some Notes...
1) Surprisingly the Gtown-Cincy and Uconn-ND results don't affect our oppty for a bye in any way... just our seeding (7 or 8).  As long as MU, Louisville, and Pitt win, we get the bye.
2) If we beat SHU, we likely will get between 8-10 with an outside chance for 7 or 11.
3)  The above is not contingent on Cuse beating Depaul, nor St Johns game... those results has no bearing on MU's bye chances.

Feel free to check my math and logic.  I'd be willing to wager a good amount of money this is right.If anyone has any specific questions on how results affect us, I should be able to answer as I have all of them run through.

I had too thought MU could still get the 7 seed with a 3 way tie between MU, GT and WVU because of MU's head to head win over WVU(they both beat ND), but apparently, MU loses that tiebreaker because they finished 1-1 against ND and WVU went 1-0. What the hell kind of tiebreaker is that anyway?? Where one team basically gets penalized for playing a team twice while the other didn't??

Anyway, according to the MU insider email, the best MU can finish is 8th, and I believe that is in a 3 way tie with the above named teams(WVU,MU,GT), in which case WVU would be 7th and MU 8th.

[NumenFlumenque]

I had too thought MU could still get the 7 seed with a 3 way tie between MU, GT and WVU because of MU's head to head win over WVU(they both beat ND), but apparently, MU loses that tiebreaker because they finished 1-1 against ND and WVU went 1-0. What the hell kind of tiebreaker is that anyway?? Where one team basically gets penalized for playing a team twice while the other didn't??

Anyway, according to the MU insider email, the best MU can finish is 8th, and I believe that is in a 3 way tie with the above named teams(WVU,MU,GT), in which case WVU would be 7th and MU 8th.

But Scenario A would involve a three way tie b/t MU, UC, and WVU. In which case, we would win the tiebreaker b/c we beat Syracuse whereas UC and WVU both lost to 'Cuse.

[muguru]

But Scenario A would involve a three way tie b/t MU, UC, and WVU. In which case, we would win the tiebreaker b/c we beat Syracuse whereas UC and WVU both lost to 'Cuse.

But, WVU and MU both beat Notre Dame. The problem apparently is that MU went 1-1 vs. ND, where as WVU went 1-0. So WVU prevails because of better winning percentage against them even though they only played them once. That isn't the way I understood the tiebreaker, but it was confusing, and apparently, I didn't understand it correctly. WVU would get the 7th seed MU the 8th seed in this scenario.

[NavinRJohnson]

MU isn't likley to go terribly far in the BET anyway, so this doesn't matter much. As long as they win tomorrow, I have a hard time caring about this? The only reason I care is that I have been predicting that they would finish in the upper half of the BE. Gonna be tough after the UC loss, but if they beat SHU and end up tied for 8th (or 7th), I will absolutely take credit for the prediction (Seedings do not equal standings).

[brewcity77]

I'm pretty sure this is wrong. I sadly don't have the time to calculate it all out, but it's not nearly this simple. If we win and get to 10-8, we'll almost assuredly be in a group. If West Virginia is in our group (with a Louisville win), we could be in trouble. We beat them head-to-head, but they beat us in best opponent (they beat ND, we beat 'Cuse). Pitt winning is definitely good.

For the other games, they definitely matter. Georgetown/Cincy not so much. I'd probably rather see Cincy because of their 0-3 record against other potential group teams (excluding us). Notre Dame/UConn will impact us, but I'm not sure if it will be good or bad. We beat UConn on tiebreakers, and it will depend on how much they help us based on which other teams finish 10-8. However that game will be critical, it's just tough to tell which we'll want to win.

One thing I can definitely say, Scenario A does not get us the 7 seed, it gets us the 9. It puts us in a 3-way tie with WVU and Cincy. Then it goes to in-group record. Each team was 1-1. The second tiebreaker is best win. WVU beat ND, Cincy beat Louisville. Our Syracuse win is third, which puts us at the bottom of the group.

Scenario B gets us the 9 seed also. Group with WVU and G'Town, all were 1-1, WVU edges us with the ND win, G'Town edges us with the Louisville win.

Scenario C puts us in a group with WVU, UConn, and Cincy. WVU 2-1, Marquette and UConn 2-2, Cincy 1-2. WVU finishes on top, we edge UConn because our Syracuse win is better than their Cincy win. That does get us the 8-seed.

Scenario D puts us in a group with WVU, UConn, and G'Town. Actually, it's the exact same as Scenario C, except G'Town finishes last in the group. We still get the 8-seed.

Scenario E puts us in a group with WVU, G'Town, and 'Nova. G'Town and 'Nova 2-1, WVU and Marquette 1-2. We finish 9th because now that the four teams are separated into two groups, we edge them on head-to-head.

[NumenFlumenque]

But, WVU and MU both beat Notre Dame. The problem apparently is that MU went 1-1 vs. ND, where as WVU went 1-0. So WVU prevails because of better winning percentage against them even though they only played them once. That isn't the way I understood the tiebreaker, but it was confusing, and apparently, I didn't understand it correctly. WVU would get the 7th seed MU the 8th seed in this scenario.

Looking at this: http://bigeast.org/fls/19400/pdfs/men_basketball/tiebreaker11.pdf

You're right about us not getting a 7 seed, but (I think) wrong in applying the tiebreaker rules. I think we would lose under the following, "Most wins do prevail only if the team(s) with fewer wins could not equal that win total if they played the same number of games." b/c UC beat L'ville, WVU lost twice, and we lost once.

[brewcity77]

Before I head off to bed (work early tomorrow) can I be the one person to say I definitely DON'T want a first round bye?

In my perfect world, I want to see us beat Seton Hall and still get the 9-seed. That puts us in position to play DePaul, which is almost exactly like getting a first-round bye, except you add a win to your total (pushes us to 20 wins) and get to play the "weakest" team in the second round. Then we face off with one of the other 10-8 teams, possibly West Virginia, Georgetown, or...well...let's be honest, it could be a lot of different teams. But I'd guess it would put us in a game we had a 50/50 shot of winning. If we lose, it's not a bad loss. If we win, it's a quality win. Then we have to face a tough Pitt team that would probably take us out, but again, not at all a bad loss, and could make a favorable impression if we keep it close (which we almost always do). Besides, maybe if we see them on a neutral court and they don't shoot 92.7% from 3-point range (or whatever it was) we can score an upset that would probably take us up to a 7-seed (considering the 4-game winning streak, and 7 of 8). From there, who cares? We win, we're in the final. We lose, we're still in great position for the tournament.

[NumenFlumenque]

One thing I can definitely say, Scenario A does not get us the 7 seed, it gets us the 9. It puts us in a 3-way tie with WVU and Cincy. Then it goes to in-group record. Each team was 1-1. The second tiebreaker is best win. WVU beat ND, Cincy beat Louisville. Our Syracuse win is third, which puts us at the bottom of the group.

The second tiebreaker is best win, only if "the games played against the team or group are equal." So then Pitt is thrown out (unequal games, no one recorded a win), and ND is thrown out (MU went 1-1, which causes ND to be thrown out).

Louisville counts b/c of what I posted above. WVU with fewer wins could not equal UC's win total if they had played the same amount of games.

[brewcity77]

I know our ND win is thrown out, but is everyone's? Either way, I want the 9-seed. We don't need to pad our win total, but say it was us and WVU that finished 8/9. I'd much rather be the 9-seed and get the DePaul win than be the 8-seed and a potential one-and-done on a 50/50 game.

EDIT: Cincy and WVU are considered locks right now, yet if they both finish 10-8 in conference, will anyone complain that they each took 2 off DePaul? I just think we deserve the same scheduling boost.

[bamamarquettefan]

Thanks for the work.  I thought UConn had to win to have us emerge from the tie-breaker with WVU and the Cincy/Gtown loser, because the fact that they went 1-1 against us but beat WVU, Cincy and Gtown, it moves us into 2nd place in the "miniconference."

[wardle2wade]

Looking at this: http://bigeast.org/fls/19400/pdfs/men_basketball/tiebreaker11.pdf

You're right about us not getting a 7 seed, but (I think) wrong in applying the tiebreaker rules. I think we would lose under the following, "Most wins do prevail only if the team(s) with fewer wins could not equal that win total if they played the same number of games." b/c UC beat L'ville, WVU lost twice, and we lost once.

Maybe I'm got screwed up on the tiebreakers, but I'm still thinking that we can get the 7th seed based on Scenario A above.  Here's my logic...

Let's assume:
MU over @SHU,
LOU over @WVU,
ND over @Uconn,
Gtown over @Cincy,
@Pitt over Nova

This puts the final records at...
1) Pitt        15-3
2) ND         14-4
3) Lou        13-5
4) Cuse      12-6   (Cuse gets to nod due to win vs St Johns)
5) St Johns 12-6
6) Gtown    11-7
7) MU        10-8
7) WVU      10-8
7) Cincy     10-8
10) Uconn   9-9   (Uconn gets 10th due to win over Nova)
11) Nova    9-9

Mini-conference of MU-WVU-Cincy to determine 7th, 8th, and 9th...
1) All have a 1-1 record vs each other in the mini-conf.
2) Going down from the top of the rankings, for best win.
3) All lost to Pitt.
4) Records vs ND... MU 1-1, WVU 1-0, Cincy 0-1.  Looking at the examples in the Tiebreaker rules, ND should be thrown out since neither WVU and Cincy played ND twice like MU.  If only one of them played ND twice, ND would count.
5) Records vs Lou... MU 0-1, Cincy 1-0, WVU 0-2.  Maybe I'm interpreting the tiebreaker rules wrong, but I thought since MU and Cincy didn't play Lou twice that Louisville also gets thrown out.
6) Records vs Cuse... MU 1-0, Cincy 0-1, WVU 0-1.  MU comes out first for the 7th seed, WVU 8th, Cincy 9th (by WVU's win over UC).

My bad if I've got tripped up on the tiebreaker rules.  If Lou "plays" as the highest ranked team for the tiebreaker, Cincy gets 7th, MU 8th, WVU 9th.

One thing is for certain... we definitely want MU, Lou, and Pitt to win for the bye to avoid a bad loss. 

Again, the Cincy-Gtown and Uconn-ND games do not affect our ability to get the bye. This is because -- assuming MU/Lou/Pitt win -- MU clinches 8th no matter the combination of winners (Cincy/Uconn, Cincy/ND, Gtown/Uconn, Gtown/Uconn).  Thus their winners aren't relevant to us getting the bye.

Guess we'll all find out tomorrow.

[Tugg Speedman]

WVU leading Lousiville by 6 early in the second half.

[avid1010]

Preston Knowles and the Ville get us again....

[QPSS70]

Think Louisville should have fouled before the 3 point shot, not after.

[Tugg Speedman]

Think Louisville should have fouled before the 3 point shot, not after.

Louisville lacks heart, Pitino has lost control of his team  They have a low BB IQ.

I'm sorry, I could not help himself.

[Silkk the Shaka]

Zero b-ball IQ

[GoMarquette32]

??