I know a lot of you think 9-9 gets us in

[mu_hilltopper]

The next message about anything but 9-9 records will be deleted with prejudice.

You've been warned.

[🏀]

I agree though, 9-9 does not get us in.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

how does the fact that we are 6-6 with 6 games to go have anything to do with finishing 9-9 and getting in the tourney?  Or is the dog peeing again?   

[ChicosBailBonds]

U mad about something, Chicos?

Not at all.  I'm curious how 9-9 "very easily" gets us in.  I hope you're right, we might finish there. Very easily in my mind would mean a 9-9 finish puts us at a 9 or 10 seed, that would make us comfortably in.  I'm curious to hear your logic on how you think that number very easily gets us in.  Again, hope you are right.

SJU game is huge.  Thank God we didn't choke against South Florida or we are in a tremendous world of hurt right now.


EYE...you are correct.  And when the Rodents got in, they were a 12 seed and likely the 2nd to last team into the tournament.

[🏀]

how does the fact that we are 6-6 with 6 games to go have anything to do with finishing 9-9 and getting in the tourney?  Or is the dog peeing again?   

This. +1.

[willie warrior]

9-9 gets us in very easily this year.  Book it.

9-9 ain't going to get us anywhere!

[jsglow]

The more immediate concern are the next two games.  MU will NEED wins against both St. John's AND Seton Hall at home to remain in the conversation.  We'll know where we stand in a week.  We'll see what happens after that.

[ChicosBailBonds]

how does the fact that we are 6-6 with 6 games to go have anything to do with finishing 9-9 and getting in the tourney?  Or is the dog peeing again?   

Because so many here have said that 9-9 gets us in, some have even said "Very Easily" gets us in and to "book it". Therefore, in those remaining 6 games, we have no margin for error.  Could we lose at Seton Hall, absolutely.  Will we lose at UCONN?  Likely, but who knows.  Means the SJU game is a must.  The other 3 we should win at home.  If we don't win the SJU game, that makes us 9-9 which is what this topic is all about.

[Tugg Speedman]

We have played 10 currently ranked teams in the last 16 games.

For comparison .... Wisconsin has played 2 currently ranked teams (OSU and Purdue) in their last 16.  (They did play MSU, Minn and IL when they were ranked but they are not anymore)

Try to appreciate the difficultly of our schedule and why I think this is why 9 and 9 will get us a serious look. (we'll need a win or two in the BE tourney)

[Hards Alumni]

Not at all.  I'm curious how 9-9 "very easily" gets us in.  I hope you're right, we might finish there. Very easily in my mind would mean a 9-9 finish puts us at a 9 or 10 seed, that would make us comfortably in.  I'm curious to hear your logic on how you think that number very easily gets us in.  Again, hope you are right.

SJU game is huge.  Thank God we didn't choke against South Florida or we are in a tremendous world of hurt right now.


EYE...you are correct.  And when the Rodents got in, they were a 12 seed and likely the 2nd to last team into the tournament.

It very easily gets us in because this will be the softest bubble ever and the other power conferences look terrible.

The teams that we have left to play... If we ONLY beat Providence, and Seton Hall twice we still have no bad losses.

http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Marquette

If we beat UConn, Cincy, and St. Johns we are in for sure.

Find me some teams that will deserve to go in ahead of us.  For Christ's sake, we are still top 30 in KenPom rankings... and we have the 10th worst luck in the NCAA's.

We are an 8 seed in the latest bracketology.

if we go .500 down the stretch I don't see how we are not in.

[HoopsMalone]

Agree that SJU is must win, but my concern is still that every good win is at home.

Wednesday night's escape against South Florida right now is MONUMENTALLY huge. 

It would be nice to have a road/neutral court loss.  Vandy, Gonzaga, and Louisville are the coulda, woulda, shoulda games that would have made our position right now a lot safer.  We will need to beat Cincy and SJU at home and then beat another middle tier team in the first round at the Garden. 

USF was huge, especially since most people were likely watching Duke/UNC and not our game.

[mu_hilltopper]

Curious on the loss side .. we have 10 losses.  6 games, plus the BET remain, so let's assume 3 more losses for 13.  Easily could be 14.

The question is .. what's the max losses an AT LARGE bid has ever had?

[cheebs09]

Curious on the loss side .. we have 10 losses.  6 games, plus the BET remain, so let's assume 3 more losses for 13.  Easily could be 14.

The question is .. what's the max losses an AT LARGE bid has ever had?

Obviously it would be something interesting to look at, but I have a feeling that there will be multiple that have more losses than whatever the previous high is. The bubble is not filled with a lot of good teams.

[ChicosBailBonds]

It very easily gets us in because this will be the softest bubble ever and the other power conferences look terrible.

The teams that we have left to play... If we ONLY beat Providence, and Seton Hall twice we still have no bad losses.

http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Marquette

If we beat UConn, Cincy, and St. Johns we are in for sure.

Find me some teams that will deserve to go in ahead of us.  For Christ's sake, we are still top 30 in KenPom rankings... and we have the 10th worst luck in the NCAA's.

We are an 8 seed in the latest bracketology.

if we go .500 down the stretch I don't see how we are not in.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm

Of the 60 online guru brackets, we're in 55 of them before today's loss.  Average seed of 10.  Thirteen have us as an 11 or 12 seed.  Sixteen have us as a 10 seed. Five have us out of the tournament altogether.

I guess I have a different definition of "very easily", but I sure as hell hope you are right.

 

[brewcity77]

If you don't think 9-9 gets us in, then all I ask is for a list of the at-large teams you think will deservedly get in ahead of us. Are Virginia Tech, Clemson, and FSU heads and tails above a 9-9 Marquette team in a weak ACC? Are Wazoo and UCLA the powerhouses out of the PAC-10 that will keep us out? Will it be perennial SEC powers like Alabama and Georgia? Or maybe it's mighty mid-majors like Memphis, New Mexico, UAB, and Butler.

I don't like the idea of relying on 9-9. I think it would land us squarely on the bubble. But it would probably land us on the right side of the bubble. The bubble is soft. Very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very soft. There is only one conference that is clearly dominant, and we're in it. In the past, 9-9 wouldn't have been enough. This year, it probably will be. Because while we may not be great, the rest of the country outright sucks. So until I see a convincing argument of why we won't make it (and "I don't like 9-9" isn't convincing) then let's stop moaning about every single loss.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Curious on the loss side .. we have 10 losses.  6 games, plus the BET remain, so let's assume 3 more losses for 13.  Easily could be 14.

The question is .. what's the max losses an AT LARGE bid has ever had?

Good question.  Dayton had 12 losses last year and did not get in, but G. Tech with 13 did.  However, G.Tech made it to the final of the ACC Tournament which likely got them in.

Minnesota had 14 losses last year and made it, but they also made it to the finals of the Big Ten Tournament.

In 2009, G'Town had a Ken Pom rating of 27...same as ours...and didn't make it.  They lost 14 going into Selection Sunday.

In 2008, Arizona had 14 losses and made it.  Ohio State had 13 losses with a Pomeroy rating of 29 (2 worse than ours) and didn't make it.

In 2007, Mississippi State had 13 losses, won their first round SEC game against Kentucky and still didn't make it...a Pomeroy ranking of 22 (higher than MU's today).


Plenty of examples of teams making it and teams NOT making it that have similar resumes to ours right now. 

[4everwarriors]

I'm on record right now as sayin' St. John's beats us on Tues. Now what? Doesn't look like a tourney team to me, soft, medium, or hard bubble not withstanding.

[ChicosBailBonds]

We have played 10 currently ranked teams in the last 16 games.

For comparison .... Wisconsin has played 2 currently ranked teams (OSU and Purdue) in their last 16.  (They did play MSU, Minn and IL when they were ranked but they are not anymore)

Try to appreciate the difficultly of our schedule and why I think this is why 9 and 9 will get us a serious look. (we'll need a win or two in the BE tourney)

I get it, but AP rankings don't mean jack to me, they are a flawed system beyond belief and have been exposed time and time and time again on this board by many people.

Wisconsin's overall schedule is 27

MU's overall schedule is 44

The reality is, both have played tough schedules, MU probably will even end up with a tougher one.  Both teams are on national tv a lot.  I just didn't get the point of the ranked team part of your commentary and especially the national television portion...they're both on equally in terms of national tv appearances.  Now, I do see where you're going with the fact that they have won big games on national tv, like #1 Ohio State yesterday.  Agree with you there.  At the end of the day, this team has a lot of talent, plays really well for great portions of the game but seems to have a death spiral period that hits them in many games.  Very frustrating.

I disagree with people that say we are "out talented"...I've been hearing on this board that we have the best talent in over a decade, better recruits than ever before...HOW ARE WE OUT-TALENTED?

[brewcity77]

Plenty of examples of teams making it and teams NOT making it that have similar resumes to ours right now.

Sorry, but the more this season goes on, the more bracket projections I look at, the more I am thinking this is becoming just a stupid argument. No offense, Chicos, but this is the softest bubble in history. Not only are pretty much all the conferences outside the Big East sucking it up, but there are three extra bids to go around. You simply can't say "well, this wasn't good enough in 2007" because the changes in college basketball between 2007 and 2011 are immense.

And I'm not sure if you were here, but I broke down the cases for 11 Big East teams in comparison to teams that didn't make it, including the likes of 2006 Cincinnati and 2007 Syracuse. Our resume, or that of this year's Cincy and St. John's, matched up pretty well with almost all of those teams, and was clearly better than almost all of them. When you factor in a soft bubble, I simply think it'd ignorant to say that we're teetering on the brink, especially when the hardest part of our conference schedule is behind us.

Our conference schedule featured 9 ranked teams. Of those, 8 are behind us. We play one more ranked team in our final 6 games. If we start losing to teams we shouldn't lose to, something we haven't had a habit of doing all year, then yes, we'll likely miss the tourney. But if we just keep up at the rate we've done all season long, we'll be in fine shape. The panic on this board today is bizarre. I just don't get it.

[ChicosBailBonds]

If you don't think 9-9 gets us in, then all I ask is for a list of the at-large teams you think will deservedly get in ahead of us. Are Virginia Tech, Clemson, and FSU heads and tails above a 9-9 Marquette team in a weak ACC? Are Wazoo and UCLA the powerhouses out of the PAC-10 that will keep us out? Will it be perennial SEC powers like Alabama and Georgia? Or maybe it's mighty mid-majors like Memphis, New Mexico, UAB, and Butler.

I don't like the idea of relying on 9-9. I think it would land us squarely on the bubble. But it would probably land us on the right side of the bubble. The bubble is soft. Very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very soft. There is only one conference that is clearly dominant, and we're in it. In the past, 9-9 wouldn't have been enough. This year, it probably will be. Because while we may not be great, the rest of the country outright sucks. So until I see a convincing argument of why we won't make it (and "I don't like 9-9" isn't convincing) then let's stop moaning about every single loss.

That's for the committee to decide, but here's a list from others that have taken a stab at it where they think we either belong or don't belong...this was before today's loss.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm

[cheebs09]

Looking at that though, what have Minnesota and Illinois done to get them up to 7 seeds and in most places? They may have a few better wins than us, but both lost to Indiana and Illinois lost to Penn State. I just have a hard time believing that they are that much better than us.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Looking at that though, what have Minnesota and Illinois done to get them up to 7 seeds and in most places? They may have a few better wins than us, but both lost to Indiana and Illinois lost to Penn State. I just have a hard time believing that they are that much better than us.

Hard to say, maybe the RPI number.  Illinois is 38th, MU 59th.  Minnesota is 37th.

Illinois has wins over Maryland, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Minnesota

Minnesota has wins over North Carolina, Purdue, West Virginia (neutral court)...but Minnesota is reeling. Lost 4 straight.

Hard to say.  I agree the bubble is beyond soft...last year I said the same thing and was ridiculed for it as some kind of slap against Buzz.     It's even softer this year....which is a good thing for MU.

[brewcity77]

That's for the committee to decide, but here's a list from others that have taken a stab at it where they think we either belong or don't belong...this was before today's loss.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm

So 5 out of, what, 60 keep us out? Which gives us a 91.6% chance of making the tournament? And that's before a loss to the #11 team in the country on the road by less than 10 points? Excuse me if I'm not exactly panicking.

Thank you for that evidence that indicates that 10-8 or 9-9 is probably good enough to get us in. That's all I was saying

[ChicosBailBonds]

So 5 out of, what, 60 keep us out? Which gives us a 91.6% chance of making the tournament? And that's before a loss to the #11 team in the country on the road by less than 10 points? Excuse me if I'm not exactly panicking.

Thank you for that evidence that indicates that 10-8 or 9-9 is probably good enough to get us in. That's all I was saying

And another 13 that have us as an 11 or 12 seed...meaning last 8 teams in.  I don't disagree with you on 10-8, I think 9-9 is nail biter time.

[muwarrior69]

My buddy?  Sigh

I do prefer 4 year players and won't back away from that.

Perhaps you have a better argument why our defense is so poor and on a 3 year downward trajectory?By the way, is the year 2019 when people here stop blaming Crean?  This team has talent.  This team played great defense in the first half...I'll bet Tom Crean was mentioned by Buzz in the halftime speech and that's what caused the defense to go south.

Agree, I prefer 4 year players. Academically we have 3 seniors, 2 juniors, 3 soph and 3 frosh. However, we have 1 guy in his 3rd year, 3 guys in their 2nd year and the rest essentially in their 1st year of D1 ball. This is really a young team and I wasn't sure what kind of team we would have this year. Obviously our defense has been our achilles heal. Not sure what you meant by a 3 year decline. Do you mean over the last 3 seasons or are you saying the defense will continue to decline over the next 3 years. As I said the team is young and Buzz awards playing time on how well they play defense. Hopefully over time the younger players will learn to play defense. We shall see.