The worst grade school coach isn't dumb enough to call for a foul at the end

[MisterJaylenBrownMU]

Gametracker is wrong.  They were out of timeouts.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

You sure?
According to the ESPN game tracker they called only two the whole game, both late in the second half.

http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/playbyplay?gameId=310400058

they were out of timeouts.

[warriors1965]

Buzz said he did call for the foul and it was a "philosophical decision."

[21Jumpstreet]

Seems to have done all the numbers and came out to nearly 50/50.  Agree or not, he did his typical due diligence and did what he believed in.  And it worked!!

[MUfan12]

Making the 1st FT (which they did) and using their obvious size advantage to try to tip in the 2nd.

This was my fear as well. I'll take my chances with the 80 footer.

[LA]

On the post game show Buzz just said that he will always foul in that situation. He said that if they are in the single bonus and we are up three with 5 seconds or less on their end of the court that he will foul. He says the single bonus is the big difference since he thinks it adds pressure for the shooter.

Thoughts?

[Doris Burkes Thong]

It was the "traditional" thing to do I think. Bo Ryan would've done it Buzz said in postgame.

[GOMU1104]

On the post game show Buzz just said that he will always foul in that situation. He said that if they are in the single bonus and we are up three with 5 seconds or less on their end of the court that he will foul. He says the single bonus is the big difference since he thinks it adds pressure for the shooter.

Thoughts?

They were 80 feet away from the hoop, with (apparently) no timeouts left!

Sorry Buzz, doesnt make sense.

[Pakuni]

they were out of timeouts.

OK. If it's wrong, it's wrong.

[cheebs09]

On the post game show Buzz just said that he will always foul in that situation. He said that if they are in the single bonus and we are up three with 5 seconds or less on their end of the court that he will foul. He says the single bonus is the big difference since he thinks it adds pressure for the shooter.

Thoughts?

Weren't they in the double bonus?

[BrandonA]

Rutgers didn't foul down two with 45 seconds left. At the charity stripe to win right now.

Edit. They won. And stormed the court. 

[NotAnAlum]

On the post game show Buzz just said that he will always foul in that situation. He said that if they are in the single bonus and we are up three with 5 seconds or less on their end of the court that he will foul. He says the single bonus is the big difference since he thinks it adds pressure for the shooter.

I think this is a case of Buzz being a slave to the numbers.  There is a big difference between up 3 with 5 seconds and up 3 with 1.1 sec.  With 5, 4 or even 3+ you have a chance to get the ball to a guard and have him get a shoot in the front court.  Not a great shot but a decent chance.  With 1.1 the clock will nearly expire if the rebounder passes it.  Since Buzz had a chance to relay instructions during the DJ free throws (which for G*D's sake he should have made) you tell your team.  If we miss no fouls, hands straight up, let them heave it.

[VegasWarrior77]

I watched the first half on my computer then had to go out.  From the title of this post (and others) I thought MU had lost.  There sure are some experts on this board.

[Boone]

I'd much rather take my chances on a half court heave to tie it. With our luck, they'd have made the first free throw and back tapped it out on the missed second one and they throw up a desperation 3 to win it.

[Tugg Speedman]

See 'Nova and Rutgers tonight.  Nova up by three and did not foul and lost the game.

Buzz = Brilliant
Jay = Dumb

[314warrior]

The math would be something like this (all the numbers are just guesses - changing them changes the result)

Fouling
Assumptions:  a 80% FT shooter got the rebound.  He can miss a FT 1 out of 2 times he tries.  Assume the offense gets the rebound 1 in 10 missed FT.  The team that is trailing scores with in 1.1 second 1/10 times that they get the rebound. 

Probability of making the first, missing the second, and making the tip-in =
(8/10)*(1/2)*(1/10)*(1/10) = 1/250

Not Fouling
This is just a guess from a previous poster.  It really depends on how much time is left/who has the ball.  If a guard gets the ball there would be a higher probability.

Probability of making a 3/4 court running heave:
1/1000

These are just rough assumptions.  If you have better estimates (maybe find some data someplace) please fill it in.  It is an interesting problem.

[TallTitan34]

The odds of making a 3/4 court shot are better than 1/1000.  I bet if you gave me 1000 shots even I would make more than 1.

[brewcity77]

The replacement for NMB isn't smart enough to see that this was the right call at the end of the game. It'd take a miracle either way for USF, but when do you ever see a guy deliberately miss the free throw and get the rebound? Maybe once or twice in the past decade? When do you see 3/4 court shots go in? Maybe once or twice a year? The odds were stacked well in our favor. Absolutely the right call. I'm just glad he finally called for it. It was the right strategy tonight, and hopefully will be used by us even more in the future.

[MarquetteDano]

The math would be something like this (all the numbers are just guesses - changing them changes the result)

Fouling
Assumptions:  a 80% FT shooter got the rebound.  He can miss a FT 1 out of 2 times he tries.  Assume the offense gets the rebound 1 in 10 missed FT.  The team that is trailing scores with in 1.1 second 1/10 times that they get the rebound. 

Probability of making the first, missing the second, and making the tip-in =
(8/10)*(1/2)*(1/10)*(1/10) = 1/250

You need to add something to your probabilities as well.  Sometimes (let's say 10-20% of time) the foul isn't called and the offensive player either cannot get the ball upcourt due to the foul, turns the ball over, etc..

[jeffreyweee]

The math would be something like this (all the numbers are just guesses - changing them changes the result)

Fouling
Assumptions:  a 80% FT shooter got the rebound.  He can miss a FT 1 out of 2 times he tries.  Assume the offense gets the rebound 1 in 10 missed FT.  The team that is trailing scores with in 1.1 second 1/10 times that they get the rebound. 

Probability of making the first, missing the second, and making the tip-in =
(8/10)*(1/2)*(1/10)*(1/10) = 1/250

Not Fouling
This is just a guess from a previous poster.  It really depends on how much time is left/who has the ball.  If a guard gets the ball there would be a higher probability.

Probability of making a 3/4 court running heave:
1/1000

These are just rough assumptions.  If you have better estimates (maybe find some data someplace) please fill it in.  It is an interesting problem.

Since the guy grabbing the rebound is probably a big guy i'd but the percent below 70, probably closer to 65%. Also they must make the first and must miss the second. Not just make either or. Therefore you need the .65 value and the value of missing the 2nd one (which as shown tonight is not easy) so maybe put that around 75% as well.


1/1000 is nowhere near a 3/4 court heave.


Regardless these are all meaningless numbers since they are guesses. Buzz said he did the research which probably means looking at the actual results from games. I'd go with Buzz on this 'numbers' issue. It worked PERFECTLY tonight and people are complaining.

[marquette99]

Wow, I have to turn on buzz for a rare time on that one.  A big guy with the ball, no time outs and 80 feet from the basket.  Their players have been sneaking around us on missed free throws.

I give us a 70 percent chance of winning with the foul but a 95 percent chance if we don't.  Thought it was a big mistake, but we won.

[Canadian Dimes]

I love buzz but think it was dumb to foul.  heck they got the offensive rebound the last time they missed a ft

[Daniel]

Was there any chance that a foul like that at the end of the game would have been seen as intentional? 

[wildbill sb]

I'm with you on that call, CD.

[Eye]

Was there any chance that a foul like that at the end of the game would have been seen as intentional? 

That's actually a good question. Do you have to factor in there that an official like Higgins, Driscoll or Burr might call an intentional foul? Was Burr the nearest official on that play tonight?