MU above 100 RPI now

[ChicosBailBonds]

Good news.  Forecasted RPI end of year is now at 57.5. That RPI would put us in the tournament more than 83% of the time.

Need to avoid any clunkers to teams we shouldn't lose to.

Go Warriors

[M@RQUETTEW@RRIORS]

saaawheat

[Lennys Tap]

The RPI and the RPI forecast  meant nothing in November and December (when they said we sucked and wouldn't make the tournament). They're not worth much more now. It's real simple, like it always was: win more than you lose in the Big East and you're likely in. If you don't you're likely out.

[willie warrior]

We still have a lot of games to play. Good for right now, but we must continue to improve and play well.

[ChicosBailBonds]

The RPI and the RPI forecast  meant nothing in November and December (when they said we sucked and wouldn't make the tournament). They're not worth much more now. It's real simple, like it always was: win more than you lose in the Big East and you're likely in. If you don't you're likely out.

No one ever said anything differently, either.  It's a fun tool to watch...with more data points the more accurate it gets.  Let's home we can improve on that 57.5 number as that's still not a guaranteed lock. 

[Nukem2]

No one ever said anything differently, either.  It's a fun tool to watch...with more data points the more accurate it gets.  Let's home we can improve on that 57.5 number as that's still not a guaranteed lock. 

Does the 57.5% factor in the 4 new slots in the tourney?

[Marquette84]

Does the 57.5% factor in the 4 new slots in the tourney?

The number of teams in the tournament has no bearing on the RPI.

Only three factors are included:
W/L record (adjusted for home/road)
Opponents W/L record
Opponents' Oppponents W/L record

[ChicosBailBonds]

Does the 57.5% factor in the 4 new slots in the tourney?

57.5 is our predicted RPI finish in terms of rating.

In terms of % to make it, those guys actually predict a 54% probability of getting in, and that does include the extra 3 spots.


However, in looking at the last decade or so of teams that finished with a 58RPI (what we are our projected to finish at), I come up with closer to 82% have made it.

[ChicosBailBonds]

The number of teams in the tournament has no bearing on the RPI.

Only three factors are included:
W/L record (adjusted for home/road)
Opponents W/L record
Opponents' Oppponents W/L record

Correct

[mikem91288]

Chicos should quit his job and become the next Ken Pom

[mu_hilltopper]

rpiforecast has us beating Syracuse with 52% odds.  They've clearly not factored in National Marquette Day, nor the fact that SU owns us.  

I'd somehow like to figure in the theory:  We're going to win a game we're not supposed to, lose one we're not supposed to lose.

I'd say we'll lose to USF and beat Gtown, flipping those two.

[Canadian Dimes]

The Jaapanese Bomb pearl harbor...in other old news of the day.  

Those trying to hurt the program will attack early season SOS.  But like in the first 5 years in the BE the RPI sky rockets...win or lose....due to the 18 murderous games we have.  

Buzz has actually upgraded the schedule from the Pretender.

Any other breaking news?

[ChicosBailBonds]

Those trying to hurt the program?

LOL.  Good grief.  We all know how the RPI works, no one ever said differently.  Clearly back when the RPI was posted in December people said things like "of course this will change as the season goes on" or things like "the Big East schedule will help our RPI out greatly" 

And here I thought you had me on ignore.   

[brewcity77]

Those trying to hurt the program?

LOL.  Good grief.  We all know how the RPI works, no one ever said differently.  Clearly back when the RPI was posted in December people said things like "of course this will change as the season goes on" or things like "the Big East schedule will help our RPI out greatly" 

And here I thought you had me on ignore.   

Oh, sure, deny you were the one on the grassy knoll overlooking Coach Buzz's office! Just try to deny it! We all know it was you, Chicos. And you would have gotten away with it too, if not for that darn dog and those pesky kids!

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Oh, sure, deny you were the one on the grassy knoll overlooking Coach Buzz's office! Just try to deny it! We all know it was you, Chicos. And you would have gotten away with it too, if not for that darn dog and those pesky kids!

\
actually, there is a garden outside buzz's office.  dirt and patchy grass outside terri mitchell's office.

was the garden an I4 thing?

[APieperFan3]

57.5 is our predicted RPI finish in terms of rating.

In terms of % to make it, those guys actually predict a 54% probability of getting in, and that does include the extra 3 spots.


However, in looking at the last decade or so of teams that finished with a 58RPI (what we are our projected to finish at), I come up with closer to 82% have made it.

Good stuff Chicos.

Question: A "bad loss" (we will say Depaul home or road) hurts you much more than a "good win" (beat a Top 5 team halfway thru big east on the road) can help you, as far as projected RPI goes, correct?

[brewcity77]

57.5 is our predicted RPI finish in terms of rating.

In terms of % to make it, those guys actually predict a 54% probability of getting in, and that does include the extra 3 spots.


However, in looking at the last decade or so of teams that finished with a 58RPI (what we are our projected to finish at), I come up with closer to 82% have made it.

At exactly a 58 RPI, or 58 or better? Because it doesn't seem even remotely possible that all the teams with a 58 or better RPI would make the tournament. There's what, 31 conferences? I have to imagine at least half of those would send an automatic qualifier with an RPI well below 58. Even if they strictly went by RPI, that would give slots to at most the top 50 teams, assuming there were no upsets in the other conferences. Which means it wouldn't be a shock for teams below 50 to be left out.

St. Mary's with an RPI of 48 being left out in 2009, Dayton in 2008 being left out with a 32 RPI, Air Force in 2007 missed out with a 30 RPI, I realize they are all mid-majors, but if RPI is the arbiter, you can hardly say that a 58 is going to get us in when those have been left out. Especially with how strong the Big East is this year. It's not unthinkable that this league could have 10-11 legitimate tourney-worthy teams. If that's the case, it should bode well for us, but if we're in that 9-12 range, it will certainly be dicey. Would the committee hand out 10 bids to one conference?

[ChicosBailBonds]

At exactly a 58 RPI, or 58 or better? Because it doesn't seem even remotely possible that all the teams with a 58 or better RPI would make the tournament. There's what, 31 conferences? I have to imagine at least half of those would send an automatic qualifier with an RPI well below 58. Even if they strictly went by RPI, that would give slots to at most the top 50 teams, assuming there were no upsets in the other conferences. Which means it wouldn't be a shock for teams below 50 to be left out.

St. Mary's with an RPI of 48 being left out in 2009, Dayton in 2008 being left out with a 32 RPI, Air Force in 2007 missed out with a 30 RPI, I realize they are all mid-majors, but if RPI is the arbiter, you can hardly say that a 58 is going to get us in when those have been left out. Especially with how strong the Big East is this year. It's not unthinkable that this league could have 10-11 legitimate tourney-worthy teams. If that's the case, it should bode well for us, but if we're in that 9-12 range, it will certainly be dicey. Would the committee hand out 10 bids to one conference?

Good question...here's what I mean

Last year #58 was New Mexico State and they made the tournament.

Teams that were better than #58 that didn't get in were:
(MU was 54 in the RPI last year...pretty wild considering 55, 56, 57 all missed the tournament)

#57  Virginia Tech
#56  Memphis
#55  Ole Miss
#50  Wichita State
#49  UAB
#47  Kent State
#46  VCU
#39  Rhode Island
#35  Dayton  (won the NIT)

All other top 58 teams made the NCAA tournament while 9 didn't.    About 85% for last year.  It changes in other years, my calculations had it at about 83%.

[Aughnanure]

Good news.  Forecasted RPI end of year is now at 57.5. That RPI would put us in the tournament more than 83% of the time.

Need to avoid any clunkers to teams we shouldn't lose to.

Go Warriors

We will lose a game we shouldn't, most teams at our level should expect that at least once a year, but as long as we also win a game we shouldn't - also pretty standard for recent MU teams - we should be able to make up for it.

[NersEllenson]

Good question...here's what I mean

Last year #58 was New Mexico State and they made the tournament.

Teams that were better than #58 that didn't get in were:
(MU was 54 in the RPI last year...pretty wild considering 55, 56, 57 all missed the tournament)

#57  Virginia Tech
#56  Memphis
#55  Ole Miss
#50  Wichita State
#49  UAB
#47  Kent State
#46  VCU
#39  Rhode Island
#35  Dayton  (won the NIT)

All other top 58 teams made the NCAA tournament while 9 didn't.    About 85% for last year.  It changes in other years, my calculations had it at about 83%.

Though the committee is "supposed" to put more weight on RPI than Pomroy - they are allowed and do use Pomroy to help in their decision-making process.  Emphasis has been taken off of the last 10-games record, but we know that the committee still takes that into consideration - based on some things that were said by everyone from Bobby Knight, to Seth Davis.  This also can help explain how last year's MU team, though 54 in RPI received the 6 seed.  No other way to explain it..and I don't write this to be confrontational..but just to add depth to your  point above.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Though the committee is "supposed" to put more weight on RPI than Pomroy - they are allowed and do use Pomroy to help in their decision-making process.  Emphasis has been taken off of the last 10-games record, but we know that the committee still takes that into consideration - based on some things that were said by everyone from Bobby Knight, to Seth Davis.  This also can help explain how last year's MU team, though 54 in RPI received the 6 seed.  No other way to explain it..and I don't write this to be confrontational..but just to add depth to your  point above.

Correct, the RPI is only one of several tools.  As I've mentioned prior, Doug Elgin (Commissioner of the Missouri Valley Conference) was the chairman of the selection committee and on the committee itself several years.  He and I go back about two decades.  He's indicated (I believe other chairpersons have publicly) that there are a number of ratings that are used. The reason why the RPI has as much clout as it does with the NCAA is because it was created by the NCAA.  They know the formula where the other ratings systems don't always share the exact math behind them.  But I've heard Sagarin, Pomeroy, Massey and others are used as tools.

One of the things they like about the RPI is the lack of point differential.  You either won or you lost....they do not want to reward teams for piling on opponents.  Personally, I find this to be a major weakness in the RPI.  A 5 point loss to Duke should be viewed more favorably than a 30 point loss to Duke, but the RPI treats them the same.  I would be much more of an advocate of a scoring differential variable that puts a cap on the amount of a win.  That way you don't get any additional bonus points for piling on by 25 points, but say anything from 1 to 5 is a bonus, 6 to 10 is another bonus, 11 to 20 is another bonus and then final bonus at 21 to 25.  Sagarin does this with his diminishing returns principle.

[Lennys Tap]

Good question...here's what I mean

Last year #58 was New Mexico State and they made the tournament.

Teams that were better than #58 that didn't get in were:
(MU was 54 in the RPI last year...pretty wild considering 55, 56, 57 all missed the tournament)

#57  Virginia Tech
#56  Memphis
#55  Ole Miss
#50  Wichita State
#49  UAB
#47  Kent State
#46  VCU
#39  Rhode Island
#35  Dayton  (won the NIT)

All other top 58 teams made the NCAA tournament while 9 didn't.    About 85% for last year.  It changes in other years, my calculations had it at about 83%.

Saying the #58 team has an 83% or 85% chance of making the tournament because 83% or 85% of the teams rated 1-58 made it is a math error you wouldn't expect of a 5th grader.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Except that what I said is of the top 58 RPI teams, 85% made it.  That's not a math error, that's a true statement.  I did not say that the #58 team has a 85% chance, I said that RPI (or better) would get you in about that percentage of the time over the last decade or so.

[M@RQUETTEW@RRIORS]

Except that what I said is of the top 58 RPI teams, 85% made it.  That's not a math error, that's a true statement.  I did not say that the #58 team has a 85% chance, I said that RPI (or better) would get you in about that percentage of the time over the last decade or so.

So does this mean the #58 team makes it 85% of the time or teams 1-58 make it 85% of the time?

[w0bbie]

So does this mean the #58 team makes it 85% of the time or teams 1-58 make it 85% of the time?

I believe what he means is 85% of teams ranked 1-58 make the tournament in a given year.