B.E. Season in the Balance We may go 8 and 10

[TallTitan34]

If DJO makes 2 or 3 of the 11 shots he missed in the first half against Duke, all of this doom and gloom on the boards is gone.

[APieperFan3]

Duke missed three straight one and ones in the last 30 seconds so to me the game was more like a 10 point loss. Gonzaga and UW were in control for almost the entire second halves and those "close" losses didn't really seem that close to my old eyes.

I'd call the Duke game (other than the final score) encouraging. Gonzaga and Wisconsin? Not so much.

Great Post.

Of those 3 games, we gave Duke the best run. We didn't shoot particularly well. They beat us. Plain and simple.

Gonzaga was our poorest effort of the 3. We got out played and out hustled.

We did not play well enough for long enough (didnt start to play well until mid 2nd half...if you're being picky) against Wisconsin.

I think if we can average our play to be between the level we played Duke and Wisco...and hit a few more shots here or there...we could finish with 10 wins in BE play.

If we play well and win tonight...it could help catapult us to double digit BE wins as well....but, a loss could have the reverse effect.

Go out and take it boys!

[mu_hilltopper]

I'm not saying you should be delighted about the wins, just that the doom and gloom is predicated almost entirely upon our 3 losses. 

On the other hand, neither UWM nor UWGB appear to be borderline top 100 teams right now.  Both teams have fairly unimpressive 6-7 records (though GB did only lose to undefeated SDSU by 9 the week after we crushed them! ....)

The doom and gloom is not predicated "almost entirely upon our 3 losses."  It's also predicated on a few of our wins against supposedly vastly inferior teams. 

Look .. from watching the first dozen games, I think MU is somewhere 60-80th best team in D1.  (RPI Forecast has us at 71, btw.)    That sounds about right.  My prediction back in October was 9-9, and quite frankly, I'm not sure we'll get there -- yet I'll yell myself hoarse for each game, cheering on the team.   

[ChicosBailBonds]

If DJO makes 2 or 3 of the 11 shots he missed in the first half against Duke, all of this doom and gloom on the boards is gone.

Maybe, but something tells me Duke would have an answer.  With every action there is a reaction and Duke would have a reaction of some kind.

[ChicosBailBonds]

You should add an extender to that second banner

ANSWER:
Softest Bubble
in Years

[96warrior]

I wouldn't go so far as to pin the season's losses so far on an individual necessarily, but if DJO was playing this year like he played last year things would be different. It's not his fault we lost those games but his essentially not showing up does have a substantial impact not only on the final score but on the momentum of the team as a whole.

[dsfire]

The doom and gloom is not predicated "almost entirely upon our 3 losses."  It's also predicated on a few of our wins against supposedly vastly inferior teams. 

From that perspective, you probably have to toss out the Duke game as reason for despair, then, and toss in UWM - and, if you want, Bucknell.  Not sure what other wins would be cause for concern.

Look .. from watching the first dozen games, I think MU is somewhere 60-80th best team in D1.  (RPI Forecast has us at 71, btw.)    That sounds about right.  My prediction back in October was 9-9, and quite frankly, I'm not sure we'll get there -- yet I'll yell myself hoarse for each game, cheering on the team.   

I found this quote in the write-up on us on the Vandy board, which I think goes to some of the mixed feelings around here:

As noted previously, they're losses are all close losses to very good teams, but they don't have a win against anybody in the top 100 teams according to kenpom.com.  In fact, they only have three wins against the top 200 teams in the kempom.com ratings.  Their schedule has been a bit bi-polar, meaning that it is a bit difficult to get a great read on them.

Some people look at our losses to the respectable teams we've played and the scare at UWM and see a team that's barely better than the horizon league teams.  Others look at our our wins and a few losses in very winnable games against top 50 teams and think we should be just as good as any of them.  The reality is somewhere in between.  Personally, I see us playing as a bubble team but without a non-conference quality win that will probably need to win a couple of games in NYC to get in.  But the hope is based upon the team we've put on the floor - and will continue to play for the rest of the season - not the W/L record we've compiled.

[mu_hilltopper]

From that perspective, you probably have to toss out the Duke game as reason for despair, then, and toss in UWM - and, if you want, Bucknell.  Not sure what other wins would be cause for concern.
I found this quote in the write-up on us on the Vandy board, which I think goes to some of the mixed feelings around here:Some people look at our losses to the respectable teams we've played and the scare at UWM and see a team that's barely better than the horizon league teams.  Others look at our our wins and a few losses in very winnable games against top 50 teams and think we should be just as good as any of them.  The reality is somewhere in between.  Personally, I see us playing as a bubble team but without a non-conference quality win that will probably need to win a couple of games in NYC to get in.  But the hope is based upon the team we've put on the floor - and will continue to play for the rest of the season - not the W/L record we've compiled.

We are 0-3.   Our other 9 games are a mish-mosh of good and mediocre play.  With this data, we are the 60-80th best team in the country, which means a long season and a hard fight for an NCAA berth.  I don't feel the need to kibbitz over which win or loss means what -- but I would turn it around.  Do you disagree with the 60-80th place analysis?  What's yours?  Where do you think we will end up, and if it's better than 60-80, why?

(Of course, we could all just wait until 10pm when the Vandy game is over, and we'll have another data point.)

[dsfire]

We are 0-3.

...is actually all I was getting at in my first post.  Anyway, I think we're around 50th, headed towards somewhere within a game of .500 in conference, and will need a very good showing in the BET to get into the tourney, given that I expect us to lose by about 6 tonight.

As to the why, it's hard to differentiate hugely between 50 and 60, but looking at some of the teams put down around 80 on kenpom and RPI forecast... I think we're better than say, NC State and Providence.  Looks like RPI Forecast has 2 Ivy League schools ahead of us, so I'm not quite sure what to make of that.

There are teams that I think we're better than even though they may have a signature win - as we get into the meat of our schedule we'll win some of the games that we've had close losses in so far, and we'll lose some games we shouldn't that we haven't yet.  @Rutgers is a prime candidate for the latter.

[chren21]

@Rutgers is a prime candidate for the latter.

They looked like CRAP last night.  Not so good Mr. Rice, especially at MSG.  We should handle them or I will be in really bad shape mentally.