It's True - 40% of Freshman Transfer

[GGGG]

My guess is that 40% of freshmen don't transfer from Big East level programs that don't go through a coaching change.  So, out of the eight true freshmen that Buzz has recruited and signed for the past two seasons, three have already transferred out.  (And that doesn't include Newbill.)

Simply put, it's not good.  We can make all the excuses we want about parents, playing time and simple inability, but he has to do a better job of laying out expectations before the kids get here, communicating with them while they are here, or simply not signing bad talent.

BTW, I should have included Roseboro here too.  That would be 4 out of the 9 true freshman Buzz has brought to campus in the past two years have transferred out.

[TJ]

BTW, I should have included Roseboro here too.  That would be 4 out of the 9 true freshman Buzz has brought to campus in the past two years have transferred out.

That's 44%

Yeah!! We're better than average now!!!

[dw3dw3dw3]

http://www.ncpanow.org/more?id=0008


Interesting that the following schools are doing better in that department than we are

Wisconsin 0%
Michigan State 0%
Texas 0%
Texas A&M 7.1%
Duke 8.3%

Maryland, Clemson, Ohio State, LSU, UCLA, Minnesota, Kansas, North Carolina, Syracuse, Xavier, Gonzaga, BYU, UCONN also doing better

A one year sample isn't really that interesting, especially between coaching changes.

[Chicago_inferiority_complexes]

Indeed, when you hear 50% of marriages end in divorce, you immediately want to get more classifications to get closer to your category.   Control for education or religion, and you get a different picture.  (I'm guessing the divorce rate of Marquette grads is less than half the national average.)

So .. 40% of freshmen transfer from the 323 NCAA teams.

I'd like to see the stat after .. throw out all coaching change transfers.  .. I'd be curious if the top 100 teams have a different rate than the bottom 200+ teams do.   Curious about public vs. private school transfers.  (Although that might not make much difference.)

Also .. head coach age and tenure might change the rate.  I suppose the older coaches know who is going to stick around, the younger coaches perhaps have a better "identifying" rate with kids .. so who knows.

Just throwing that out there.

I do find it kind of disgusting that a 40% stat would be thrown out when it's such an over-generalization.

Has anyone found out if this is for men's basketball or all of NCAA D1 sports?

I'd also like to see this number after controlling for drop outs, which I bet are counted as "transfers." How many players of the bottom 150 4-year institutions can't cut it with college generally and decide to quit? Would anyone be surprised if it is at least a quarter of all D1 "transfers"?

[ChicosBailBonds]

BTW, I should have included Roseboro here too.  That would be 4 out of the 9 true freshman Buzz has brought to campus in the past two years have transferred out.

Added note....Four out of 9 that didn't even get to the 2nd semester of their freshman year.

[GGGG]

Mbao did.  3 out of 9 didn't get to second semester.

[ChicosBailBonds]

I do find it kind of disgusting that a 40% stat would be thrown out when it's such an over-generalization.

Has anyone found out if this is for men's basketball or all of NCAA D1 sports?

I'd also like to see this number after controlling for drop outs, which I bet are counted as "transfers." How many players of the bottom 150 4-year institutions can't cut it with college generally and decide to quit? Would anyone be surprised if it is at least a quarter of all D1 "transfers"?

I'm trying to get it from the NCAA right now through a few buddies of mine that work for the NCAA.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Mbao did.  3 out of 9 didn't get to second semester.

I should have said 4 of 9 kids signed in the last two years that didn't make it to the second semester...hell, several didn't make it to the first semester day one of classes.

[Benny B]

My guess is that 40% of freshmen don't transfer from Big East level programs that don't go through a coaching change.  So, out of the eight true freshmen that Buzz has recruited and signed for the past two seasons, three have already transferred out.  (And that doesn't include Newbill.)

Simply put, it's not good.  We can make all the excuses we want about parents, playing time and simple inability, but he has to do a better job of laying out expectations before the kids get here, communicating with them while they are here, or simply not signing bad talent.

Whether 40% is the correct figure, the point is that Buzz didn't just make that number up... he's quoting NABC.  If you want to question the stat, take it up with Izzo.  If you want to compare MU against the mean, I would highly suggest (like others before me) that you consider taking a statistics course and pay attention to the chapter on "sample size."

That notwithstanding... Sultan: you work in higher education, correct?  I'm sure you've seen the entitlement issues that are relatively widespread amongst college students today.  And these are kids who haven't been coddled by basketball coaches and promised the world by their family, friends, agents, handlers, etc.  Throw in that part of the equation, and you'll find that many, if not most, college basketball recruits today are skewing their own sense of reality.  Why is the blame being placed on Buzz for A) setting false expectations or B) failing to set expectations when it is more likely that the recruits are the ones setting their own expectations regardless of what Buzz - or any other D-I coach for that matter - says?

The problem here is that MU is still a second-tier basketball school nationally (i.e. MU is a mid-major playing in a major conference), and it is not a destination that is even considered by 10% of the 4- and 5-star recruits out there.  If you're UNC, Duke, UCLA, etc., you have your pick of the litter and you can afford to toss aside someone of "questionable" character or who lacks mental fortitude.

For MU, the talent pool is much more shallow.  Therefore, in order to land 5-, 4- and serviceable 3-star recruits nationwide, you're going to have to overlook the "living-in-their-own-world" kids - particularly those passed upon by the bigger names for the aforementioned reasons - in order to attract sufficient talent to compete in the Big East.

Moral of the story - Either accept the fact that MU is going to deal with a seemingly inordinate number of transfers, or join the company of DePaul, USF & TCU at the bottom of that little chart to the left.

[StillAWarrior]

Whether 40% is the correct figure, the point is that Buzz didn't just make that number up... he's quoting NABC.  If you want to question the stat, take it up with Izzo.  If you want to compare MU against the mean, I would highly suggest (like others before me) that you consider taking a statistics course and pay attention to the chapter on "sample size."

That notwithstanding... Sultan: you work in higher education, correct?  I'm sure you've seen the entitlement issues that are relatively widespread amongst college students today.  And these are kids who haven't been coddled by basketball coaches and promised the world by their family, friends, agents, handlers, etc.  Throw in that part of the equation, and you'll find that many, if not most, college basketball recruits today are skewing their own sense of reality.  Why is the blame being placed on Buzz for A) setting false expectations or B) failing to set expectations when it is more likely that the recruits are the ones setting their own expectations regardless of what Buzz - or any other D-I coach for that matter - says?

The problem here is that MU is still a second-tier basketball school nationally (i.e. MU is a mid-major playing in a major conference), and it is not a destination that is even considered by 10% of the 4- and 5-star recruits out there.  If you're UNC, Duke, UCLA, etc., you have your pick of the litter and you can afford to toss aside someone of "questionable" character or who lacks mental fortitude.

For MU, the talent pool is much more shallow.  Therefore, in order to land 5-, 4- and serviceable 3-star recruits nationwide, you're going to have to overlook the "living-in-their-own-world" kids - particularly those passed upon by the bigger names for the aforementioned reasons - in order to attract sufficient talent to compete in the Big East.

Moral of the story - Either accept the fact that MU is going to deal with a seemingly inordinate number of transfers, or join the company of DePaul, USF & TCU at the bottom of that little chart to the left.

I'm guessing there are parts of this post that are not going to be terribly popular here, but I have to admit that I don't find much that I can honestly disagree with.

[ChicosBailBonds]

The problem here is that MU is still a second-tier basketball school nationally (i.e. MU is a mid-major playing in a major conference), and it is not a destination that is even considered by 10% of the 4- and 5-star recruits out there.  If you're UNC, Duke, UCLA, etc., you have your pick of the litter and you can afford to toss aside someone of "questionable" character or who lacks mental fortitude.

For MU, the talent pool is much more shallow.  Therefore, in order to land 5-, 4- and serviceable 3-star recruits nationwide, you're going to have to overlook the "living-in-their-own-world" kids - particularly those passed upon by the bigger names for the aforementioned reasons - in order to attract sufficient talent to compete in the Big East.

Moral of the story - Either accept the fact that MU is going to deal with a seemingly inordinate number of transfers, or join the company of DePaul, USF & TCU at the bottom of that little chart to the left.

Agree with a lot of this, but not toward the bottom.  There are many ways to skin the cat and plenty of very successful programs in places in the middle of nowhere, small school, poor recruiting base that get it done year in and year out without having to take some of the recruiting risks we have. 

[GGGG]

First off, I will agree that kids today are much more "coddled" than I was a generation ago.  But I also think that they are also much, much more mature and "with it" than I was at that age.  Coddling isn't always a bad thing.

But back to basketball, I think you are dealing with a false "either/or" here.  The choice isn't between dealing with transfers or being a bottom tier BE program.  I am of the opinion that MU can be a consistent winner and not have to deal with these issues.  And I have never disputed the 40% figure...I just think using it as an excuse is kind of lame when I doubt most BE-type programs who aren't going through coaching changes reach that figure.

Over the course of the past two years we have had two transfers due to lack of talent...players who should have never been offered.  And two transfers at the semester break due to playing time type issues.  Seriously, where has that happened before?

Look, I still like Buzz and hope for his success.  There just is *a lot* of smoke here.  And we can either write them off one at a time, or we can realize that there is a disturbing trend here.  Buzz is a goofy dude who flamed out quickly at his only other head coaching job.  There isn't a long record of stability with this guy and it worries me.

[Pakuni]

Look, I still like Buzz and hope for his success.  There just is *a lot* of smoke here.  And we can either write them off one at a time, or we can realize that there is a disturbing trend here.  Buzz is a goofy dude who flamed out quickly at his only other head coaching job.  There isn't a long record of stability with this guy and it worries me.

Whoa, whoa, whoa .... what?
What's the "smoke" you're finding here and what's the disturbing trend? That two kids have transferred in two years due to a perceived lack of playing time/opportunity? If that disturbs you, then I might suggest you're a tad bit sensitive about these things. I'm disappointed by the transfers, but definitely not disturbed.

Buzz didn't "flame out" at his last coaching job. He left for what he thought was a better opportunity. Given the fortunes of UNO basketball since, and where his career has gone since, it turns out he made an exceptionally wise and prescient decision, wouldn't you agree?

If you really want to understand how common transfers occur these days, check out this list.

http://justincollegesports.blogspot.com/2010/04/2010-college-basketball-transfers-april.html

Last year, there were 474 Division I transfers. Four of them were at MU, which is on the high side (though two of them - Roseboro and McMorrow - never actually played at MU). Among the many others with four or more ...

Virginia (hey, didn't some of you want that guy as MU's coach? Disturbing) Washington St.
UTEP
Utah
USC
UC-Riverside
UCLA (Howland runs a disturbing program)
St. Joseph's
St. Bonaventure
Southern Illinois
Rutgers
Providence (another favorite coaching candidate running a disturbing program)
Oregon
Ole Miss
Iowa State
Illinois State
Fordham
Duquense
Arizona State
Akron

And, I think if you look at the list, you'd find there are many, many programs that had at least three transfers last year, including the likes of Arizona, Baylor, UConn, Gonzaga, Illinois, NC State, Nebraska, Penn State, St. Louis and Utah State.

[GGGG]

Whoa, whoa, whoa .... what?
What's the "smoke" you're finding here and what's the disturbing trend? That two kids have transferred in two years due to a perceived lack of playing time/opportunity? If that disturbs you, then I might suggest you're a tad bit sensitive about these things. I'm disappointed by the transfers, but definitely not disturbed.

Buzz didn't "flame out" at his last coaching job. He left for what he thought was a better opportunity. Given the fortunes of UNO basketball since, and where his career has gone since, it turns out he made an exceptionally wise and prescient decision, wouldn't you agree?

Well, Pakuni, I am disturbed.  Many of the programs you listed had coaching changes that likely resulted in the large number of transfers.  MU didn't.  I don't like the trend.

And "flame out" was a bad phrase for the UNO job.  "Lack of dedication" would be a better phrase.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Well, Pakuni, I am disturbed.  Many of the programs you listed had coaching changes that likely resulted in the large number of transfers.  MU didn't.  I don't like the trend.

And "flame out" was a bad phrase for the UNO job.  "Lack of dedication" would be a better phrase.

lack of dedication, or a desire to get off of a sinking ship.

I thought the reasons that it was a wise move for Buzz to leave UNO had been pretty clearly established, especially the move to D3 and the lack of funding/support from the administration.

[Pakuni]

Well, Pakuni, I am disturbed.  Many of the programs you listed had coaching changes that likely resulted in the large number of transfers.  MU didn't.  I don't like the trend.

And "flame out" was a bad phrase for the UNO job.  "Lack of dedication" would be a better phrase.

Lack of dedication by whom?
The university that didn't provide promised facilities, per diems and academic support, and has since given up on the program entirely?
And what exactly have you seen from Buzz Williams that would lead you to believe he's not dedicated to his job?

Also, I actually tried to stay away from programs with coaching changes last year. Of the 19 programs I listed with four or more transfers (and there were more than 19 of them), only four of them had coaching changes. Of the 10 I listed with three or more (and there were more than 10 programs that I didn't list), none of them had coaching changes.  

[GGGG]

lack of dedication, or a desire to get off of a sinking ship.

I thought the reasons that it was a wise move for Buzz to leave UNO had been pretty clearly established, especially the move to D3 and the lack of funding/support from the administration.

I think the move to D3 happened after Buzz left. 

[GGGG]

Also, I actually tried to stay away from programs with coaching changes last year. Of the 19 programs I listed with four or more transfers (and there were more than 19 of them), only four of them had coaching changes. Of the 10 I listed with three or more (and there were more than 10 programs that I didn't list), none of them had coaching changes.  

Then it is a trend that disturbs me at places other than MU.

[Benny B]

Agree with a lot of this, but not toward the bottom.  There are many ways to skin the cat and plenty of very successful programs in places in the middle of nowhere, small school, poor recruiting base that get it done year in and year out without having to take some of the recruiting risks we have. 

I know that you're not implying that "no-risk" recruits exist?  I agree that some of the recruits Buzz has signed have been questionable at best, but the truth is that as long as free will exists, "no-risk" recruits will never exist.

Granted, there are some recruits that are "low-risk" and some that are "high-risk."  But how do you subjectively determine - with a discernible amount of accuracy - who is what before an NLI is printed up?  Should Buzz be profiling his recruits?  Should we be sending high school kids to pre-NLI counseling sessions?  Should we obtain Meyers-Briggs indicators for all of MU's recruits?

Listen... it's easy to place blame on Buzz for recruiting the wrong guys here, but let's not rush to judgment here.  Mistakes are inevitable, even in recruiting... but the only way to prevent a mistake is to make no attempt whatsoever.

Foresight is a cure that challenges the highest intellectual; hindsight is the elixir of the intellectually challenged.

[dw3dw3dw3]

I'm trying to get it from the NCAA right now through a few buddies of mine that work for the NCAA.

I don't believe I've used an emotion icon before, but I think this is what I'm going for: 

Hey NCAA buddy,
    I'm trying to prove to these people on this message board (where I kick ass everyday) that the coach of my alma mater runs a squirmy program.  He was recently quoted in the local newspaper saying that 40% of incoming recruits transferred in order to make himself look better, I'm calling bullcrap. Since you are one of my many very influential and important friends who works for the NCAA, could you make sure my hunches are correct in that this doesn't apply to Marquette's situation? If not, could you break down the data by race, religion, sex, country of origin, criminal record, traditional/athletic, program received the death penalty, coaching change, and average GPA (in both high school and college) so I can prove something to those message board idiots.
Thanks,
Your equally as important friend

[ChicosBailBonds]

lack of dedication, or a desire to get off of a sinking ship.

I thought the reasons that it was a wise move for Buzz to leave UNO had been pretty clearly established, especially the move to D3 and the lack of funding/support from the administration.

The move to D3 came several years later

[ChicosBailBonds]

I know that you're not implying that "no-risk" recruits exist?  I agree that some of the recruits Buzz has signed have been questionable at best, but the truth is that as long as free will exists, "no-risk" recruits will never exist.

Granted, there are some recruits that are "low-risk" and some that are "high-risk."  But how do you subjectively determine - with a discernible amount of accuracy - who is what before an NLI is printed up?  Should Buzz be profiling his recruits?  Should we be sending high school kids to pre-NLI counseling sessions?  Should we obtain Meyers-Briggs indicators for all of MU's recruits?

Listen... it's easy to place blame on Buzz for recruiting the wrong guys here, but let's not rush to judgment here.  Mistakes are inevitable, even in recruiting... but the only way to prevent a mistake is to make no attempt whatsoever.

Foresight is a cure that challenges the highest intellectual; hindsight is the elixir of the intellectually challenged.

Correct.  There is no such thing as a no risk recruit..we agree.  My issue (this applies to Crean and Buzz) is that we have dipped into the well on some kids that clearly had issues (Pakuni will interpret this to mean Murder I - Criminal - Life Sentence rapist) and other programs in the state steered clear from for a reason.  We seem to ignore a lot of red flags of late.

[ChicosBailBonds]

I don't believe I've used an emotion icon before, but I think this is what I'm going for: 

Hey NCAA buddy,
    I'm trying to prove to these people on this message board (where I kick ass everyday) that the coach of my alma mater runs a squirmy program.  He was recently quoted in the local newspaper saying that 40% of incoming recruits transferred in order to make himself look better, I'm calling bullcrap. Since you are one of my many very influential and important friends who works for the NCAA, could you make sure my hunches are correct in that this doesn't apply to Marquette's situation? If not, could you break down the data by race, religion, sex, country of origin, criminal record, traditional/athletic, program received the death penalty, coaching change, and average GPA (in both high school and college) so I can prove something to those message board idiots.
Thanks,
Your equally as important friend

Love it...that was creative and funny.  Well done.

[MerrittsMustache]

Correct.  There is no such thing as a no risk recruit..we agree.  My issue (this applies to Crean and Buzz) is that we have dipped into the well on some kids that clearly had issues (Pakuni will interpret this to mean Murder I - Criminal - Life Sentence rapist) and other programs in the state steered clear from for a reason.  We seem to ignore a lot of red flags of late.

Who were the red flags? Maymon because of his father. I'll give you that one. Who else?

[Lennys Tap]

Then it is a trend that disturbs me at places other than MU.

We totally get that you're disturbed.