Lost 3 games by a total of 13 points

[mviale]

Season is definitely a tough one as we try to find ourselves.  However, perspective is important when you lose to Wisconsin, Duke and Gonzaga by a total of 13 points.

Every game will make this team better.

[The Lens]

Amen.  I think this is a 1st rd NCAA team.  We've played good teams and lost; but by close margins.  Just like last last year's BE opening sked.

We're not that bad.

We'll be all right.  Our losses have come against w of the best coaches in the land and maybe 3 depending on your view of Few.  Let us play Rutgers (Sorry Rice Cakes), Hall (x 2), De Paul, Cinci, PC, ND (x 2) & St John's.  We may not win every game, but I like our odds.

[wojosdojo]

Don't mean to hate on our guys who refuse to let up, because let's be honest, if you take a top 25 team and give them those three games they will most likely be off one night and lose by ten+. But the other thing is they would probably win one too, top 25 or not. Like all of us, I'd rather get blown out one night, lose, and win the next then lose all 3 by a total of 13pts. Like Buzz said, he's tired of hearing the appaulsse for sticking with Duke and these good teams, because the bottom line is the record doesn't show how close you came. I love how our guys complete, truly. Every night they feel they can win, so let's do it. Go Marquette.

[NCMUFan]

Gettting blown out would point to major flaws in the team.  Losing by only a couple would point to needing to incrementally improve in certain areas.  I doubt people have forgot the Lousville thrashing they gave us about 5 years ago, or the opening round lost to Michigan State.  Those are deep wounds that leave scars. 

[79Warrior]

Amen.  I think this is a 1st rd NCAA team.  We've played good teams and lost; but by close margins.  Just like last last year's BE opening sked.

We're not that bad.

We'll be all right.  Our losses have come against w of the best coaches in the land and maybe 3 depending on your view of Few.  Let us play Rutgers (Sorry Rice Cakes), Hall (x 2), De Paul, Cinci, PC, ND (x 2) & St John's.  We may not win every game, but I like our odds.

Zero quality non-conference wins. Our wins are aginst cupcakes. Give me a break, at least last year we had a few decent wins in non-conf. forget the close loss BS. The Gonzaga and Wisconsin games were never in doubt. For that matter, Duke closed us out the last 10 minutes of the game. Close losses mean jack.

[NCMUFan]

Simply is the glass half empty or half full?  We were certainly in the games.  Losses are tough.

[Henry Sugar]

Season is definitely a tough one as we try to find ourselves.  However, perspective is important when you lose to Wisconsin, Duke and Gonzaga by a total of 13 points.

Every game will make this team better.

I think this is spin.  Marquette was down significantly in all three games and only rallied late to keep the final margin more respectable.  It's not like we were close the entire game and then just couldn't pull it out.

[ChicosBailBonds]

I think this is spin.  Marquette was down significantly in all three games and only rallied late to keep the final margin more respectable.  It's not like we were close the entire game and then just couldn't pull it out.

That's my viewpoint as well.  Last year we started 11-8 but against a tougher schedule and we led late in many of those games.  This year, against a weaker opening schedule, we have trailed (sometimes badly) in all of our key games.  We certainly were "in" the games this year, but last year we often controlled the games with the lead until the final 2 minutes where we ran out of gas, puckered up, or whatever.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Last year at this time I was ready to shoot my dog.  Our two centers were out for the year if not their career, JMay turned tail after the UW game, our Top 50 PG blew out his Achilles tendon, Lazar was shooting 32% from three, we blew major leads to FSU and to NCST at home (ending a home OOC streak), we beat a Xavier team early with a new coach and many new players who we happened to match-up well as their center was 6'6', DJO had been out a significant time with a foot injury, our key power forward quit on the team one minute before school started.  Our other AA JUCO was coming back from a major knee surgery where his career was in question.  We had one of the smallest teams in the nation and couldn't buy a rebound. Then we started 1-3 in BE play and gave away a crap game to DePaul later in January.  

I prefer our 2011 outlook.

[4everwarriors]

Losses are losses

[Dawson Rental]

Last year at this time I was ready to shoot my dog.  Our two centers were out for the year if not their career, JMay turned tail after the UW game, our Top 50 PG blew out his Achilles tendon, Lazar was shooting 32% from three, we blew major leads to FSU and to NCST at home (ending a home OOC streak), we beat a Xavier team early with a new coach and many new players who we happened to match-up well as their center was 6'6', DJO had been out a significant time with a foot injury, our key power forward quit on the team one minute before school started.  Our other AA JUCO was coming back from a major knee surgery where his career was in question.  We had one of the smallest teams in the nation and couldn't buy a rebound. Then we started 1-3 in BE play and gave away a crap game to DePaul later in January.  

I prefer our 2011 outlook.

If Cadougan blowing out his Achilles tendon was the event that brought Acker back to the team, it probably was responsible for last year's team making the NCAA tourney.

[Dr. Blackheart]

If Cadougan blowing out his Achilles tendon was the event that brought Acker back to the team, it probably was responsible for last year's team making the NCAA tourney.

You can thank Roseboro for Mo's return.  I forgot to mention that our top big man recruit, Monterale Clark, was charged with sexual assault.  So add that to our list. 

[jmayer1]

That's my viewpoint as well.  Last year we started 11-8 but against a tougher schedule and we led late in many of those games.  This year, against a weaker opening schedule, we have trailed (sometimes badly) in all of our key games.  We certainly were "in" the games this year, but last year we often controlled the games with the lead until the final 2 minutes where we ran out of gas, puckered up, or whatever.

I don't think there is a discernible difference in the strength of our schedule this year as compared to last year with the exception that we have one more cupcake this year (we played 12 NC games last year, this year we are playing 13).  Using KenPom (I think it's too early to rely on RPI this year):

Average KenPom rank of NC opponents:
'09 - 179.33
'10 - 186.31 (one more cupcake this year than last year, if you took out the last cupcake (MVS) our average would be 175.75

Average KenPom rank of first 7 conference opponents, at which point MU was 11-8, 2-5 last year:
'09 - 46.71
'10 - 57.28
Both years, 4 of the first 7 were on the road.

A little bit more of a difference, but this could very easily narrow (or widen) as more information becomes available.

Vandy would be a huge win.  MU gets that one and they are basically in the same position entering the conference season as they were last year.  However, that's no looking too good, but I also don't think we'll start out the conference season 2-5.  I think after 7 conference games we'll be 13-7 as compared to 11-8 last year.  Unfortunately, the latter part of the conference schedule this year is looking much harder than last year (average rank of last 11 conference opp: '09 - 80.09, '10 - 43.64, but I think SH, SJ, Prov, & Cincy's rankings will fall a bit  compared to where they are now) so it will be more important to get off to a better start this year as there aeren't as many "easy" Big East games to fall back on later in the season.

Overall, I don't think we are much worse/better than last year at this point. In my eyes, being down and losing by a few is no better or worse than being up and losing by a few; at the end of the day they both end up in the L column.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Jmayer, thank you for the data.

I guess my question would be if last year we would find a way to lose at the end, where this year the games we have lost we hung around but were almost always trailing.  I would argue we were in control more last year vs this year (thus far) we have been playing from behind in the key games (even some of the non key games like Bucknell).

[Aughnanure]

There are definite concerns, and more than we have been used to in previous years. We are due for a bit of a disappointing year, but the ability to stay in games and battle to the end is something I think people here are undervaluing that comes from Buzz.

[Dr. Blackheart]

I guess my question would be if last year we would find a way to lose at the end, where this year the games we have lost we hung around but were almost always trailing.  I would argue we were in control more last year vs this year (thus far) we have been playing from behind in the key games (even some of the non key games like Bucknell).

The difference is experience...this year we are the 8th most experienced team in the BE.  Last year we were 2nd most.  And,that is counting Jae, Chris, and Junior as Sophomores and a Junior.  Can you imagine playing your first D1 sell-out, nationally televised game vs. the defending champions?  Or the first home sell-out with all the hype in front of the Badgers (see the Revealed video)?  These are the games we miss Joe's steadying influence.   

[Marquette84]

The difference is experience...this year we are the 8th most experienced team in the BE.  Last year we were 2nd most.  And,that is counting Jae, Chris, and Junior as Sophomores and a Junior.  Can you imagine playing your first D1 sell-out, nationally televised game vs. the defending champions?  Or the first home sell-out with all the hype in front of the Badgers (see the Revealed video)?  These are the games we miss Joe's steadying influence.   

http://statsheet.com/mcb/stattracker/experience
The scatter plot of all D1 teams is quite interesting--it plots experience versus winning percentage.  

I see that UConn is the least experienced team in the Big East (and tied with Memphis for 10th least experienced nationwide), and they are 8-0 with wins over UK and Michigan State.

I see that St. Johns is the most experienced team in the league (and 5th most experienced nationwide), and they are 5-3 with losses to St. Marys, St. Bonnevenutre, and Fordham.

Wisconsin is more experienced than us, however, Duke and Gonzaga are both less experienced than we are.

This should put an end to the "lack of experience" argument.  Looking at the plot of all D1 teams, experience is about as close to irrelevant as you can get.

[Dr. Blackheart]

http://statsheet.com/mcb/stattracker/experience
The scatter plot of all D1 teams is quite interesting--it plots experience versus winning percentage.  

I see that UConn is the least experienced team in the Big East (and tied with Memphis for 10th least experienced nationwide), and they are 8-0 with wins over UK and Michigan State.

I see that St. Johns is the most experienced team in the league (and 5th most experienced nationwide), and they are 5-3 with losses to St. Marys, St. Bonnevenutre, and Fordham.

Wisconsin is more experienced than us, however, Duke and Gonzaga are both less experienced than we are.

This should put an end to the "lack of experience" argument.  Looking at the plot of all D1 teams, experience is about as close to irrelevant as you can get.

Of course, experience can't make a poor team good like SJU.  And, certainly there are far more important factors to winning--versus just looking at experience.  Pomeroy uses experience in his "Luck" measure--which for him, the two most important correlates are experience and free throw shooting.  Hanner in this article downgrades the importance of "Luck" in FT %, concludes Free Throw Rate is slightly positive, but confirms experience is a significant statistical factor on winning--or "Luck".

Look at Kentucky and Cornell last year in the NCAA's. Cornell overachieved with experience and a young UK underachieved their talent. With MU and any young team vs. let's say a SJU, experience means there is more room to improve as the season goes on.  The SJU seniors had three sub-par seasons--a year of experience won't make them much better.  We will see where UCONN nets out, but they do have a great senior PG--preseason AA in fact. ND is again the most experienced team in the BE...it looks like they are overachieving their talent already.  

"Finally, we come to the role of experience. I am certainly not going to convince you based on the scatter plot that there is a relationship between the variables. But I can tell you that the positive correlation is statistically significant at the 1% level. And if you want to visualize the reason, I think it is hidden in the upper left-hand corner of the plot. There is not a single inexperienced team with a luck rating over 0.1."

http://yetanotherbasketblog.blogspot.com/2010/08/dont-blame-freshman-forward.html

[MuMark]

If DJO was playing like Kemba Walker this thread wouldn't even exist. Duke is more experienced then we are and much more talented. What a silly comparison. Defending NC returning 2 seniors who will be first round draft choices(maybe even 3 if you include Plumlee). High school all americans up and down the roster.

ND starts 5 seniors.....experience seems to be helping them so far. Same for GT, and Nova.

We have 2 players on our team who had any real track record of achievement at this level. JB and DJO. Buycks played a little along with Fulce(non factor again this year do to injury) and thats it. Cadougan and Otule are Sophs in name only. Crowder is good but still learing what it takes to compete at this level.

I don't remember all of this moaning when the 2009 team "only beat Houston Baptist by 31. Pomeroy had them at 324 so they were basically Centenary. That MU team was experienced and talented .....How could they not beat them by 50? They also beat a bad Chicago State team by 19 and gave up 87 points to them in the process. Texas Southern(326) was beat by only 17.

In 2008 we beat Utah Valley State by 11.....I was at that game...man was it ugly. We followed that up with a win against Chaminade by 11.

So lets stop acting like this is about not blowing out bad teams by what fans decide are appropriate numbers......this is all about us not beating UW or Gonzaga.

Both of them beat us the same way....they killed us on the offensive boards.

I understand people being disappointed but what I don't get is why some people seem angry?

Why? This is college hoops not life or death......This just in.....we might not be that good this year....it happens.....Ask UCLA, NC, UCONN, IU, Illinois, Oklahoma, Wake Forrest, Georgia Tech and a bunch of other teams who went through non NCAA tournament seasons in the recent past.

[ChicosBailBonds]

No one is angry that I can tell.  That's the problem with message boards, you can't tell emotions, intent, sarcasm, etc.

A lot of talent on this team, plenty of upside, a few unfortunate starts for some players that hopefully get turned around quickly.  This team can make some noise, but pretty clear to everyone that they have considerable growth steps to take in the coming weeks if expectations are to be met. 

[4everwarriors]

And, lack of experience on this team is a direct result of what?

[MuMark]

Graduation and a coaching change which cost us Taylor, Nick Williams, Christopherson and Mbakwe.

Coaching changes happen.....so do graduations(except at Cincy during Huggins years).

[4everwarriors]

Yes, and the Bloomington wonder leaving the cupboard bare.

[chren21]

I think it comes down to consistently putting together 40 minutes (even 35) of solid basketball just like Buzz has stated.  Experience definitely helps achieving this goal...

[jmayer1]

Jmayer, thank you for the data.

I guess my question would be if last year we would find a way to lose at the end, where this year the games we have lost we hung around but were almost always trailing.  I would argue we were in control more last year vs this year (thus far) we have been playing from behind in the key games (even some of the non key games like Bucknell).

I'm not sure I see a direct question in there but my feeling was last year that MU just lacked a little bit of depth and talent and that they just came up a little short  a few times once teams started turning it on towards the end of games.  This season I feel like MU has the depth and talent it needs but it's almost like they don't realize they are down and really need to get after it until it's too late.  MU went on runs of 12-6, 15-7, and 16-7 to close out the Duke, Gonzaga, and UW-Madison games.  If they could learn to play with that intensity and heart the rest of the game, I really think they could end up being a very good team.

Another thing about this year's squad that I haven't felt about a team at MU in a long time (maybe since the final four year) is that there are guys up and down this team that can make plays.  In other years, I felt like there was only 4-5 guys that could be trusted to actually make something happen.  It's up to Buzz to figure out what units work best to utilize that talent and keep it focused the whole game. I'm still pretty confident you'll see this team in the NCAA at season's end.