Katz on Mike & Mike

[StillAWarrior]

Katz was just on Mike & Mike.  He had two Marquette references:

1)  When talking about Syracuse's resume, he said that they had a couple of good road wins to their credit, with Marquette being the best.

2)  He mentioned that tonight the selection committee will submit its first ballot of teams that they think will be in the tournament no matter what.  He said that they're allowed to pick up to 34 teams for this, but typically it is in the mid-20s.  Greenie asked him how deep he thought they would go in the Big East with that.  Katz responded with Georgetown, Pitt, Louisville and Marquette.  When asked about ND, he said maybe, but that he thought they might be second ballot.  So, for what it's worth, not only does Katz think Marquette is a lock for the tournament, he thinks they'll make it on the first ballot.

For those who missed it, there were some great articles last month about how the selection process works.  Several writers wrote about it, but here's Katz's take.

[NYWarrior]

good news.  and if MU can win tonight.....adding a road win to their RPI would be a nice boost - maybe the team can sneak in with a 5 seed.  lose it -- and do we drop to 7?

[MarquetteVol]

  So, for what it's worth, not only does Katz think Marquette is a lock for the tournament, he thinks they'll make it on the first ballot.

Let's just hope we don't have to go to the veteran's committee. Ask Ron Santo about that process. Oh, NCAA Tournament ballots....right.

[NavinRJohnson]

lose it -- and do we drop to 7?

I really don't think tonight's game will have any direct impact on our seed whatsoever - win or lose. Indirectly, if we win and end up playing tomorrow, I think we have a chance to improve our seed by winning that one, but a loss in that game wouldn't hurt us. I still say we are at worst a 6 seed regardless of what happens from here on out, with a chance to move up with 2 or 3 wins.

[Big Papi]

At this point in time I think we are playing for a seed anywhere in the 3 to 6 range with each win bumping us over 3 or 4 teams.

[WashDCWarrior]

I thinking 3 to 7, with each tourney win bumping us up one spot.

Lose to St. John's - 7
Lose to Pitt - 6
Lose in Semi's - 5
Lose in Finals - 4
Win BE - 3

[thisists]

i agree with washdcwarrior and mufanatic, tourney wins would carry a lot more weight.  ~1 spot per BET win.

[Nukem2]

If we lose to SJU, we are probaly an 8 or 9.  A first round conference tourney loss is not good.  Last year, we got a 1st round bye and lost to a good G-Town team in the quarter-final round and received a 7 seed with a relatively similar resume.  Losing tonite will get a a lower seed than last year.

[Avenue Commons]

I have a hard time seeing us ranked any lower than a 7. I don't think there are 27 teams in the country better than us to being with, and there certainly aren't 28-31 teams in the country better than us.

[AlumKCof93]

I agree Av Commons.  The only way we would get an 8/9 seed is if the committee determined its appropriate given how many BE teams have low seeds and the fact that finished 6th in the conference.  I think a win tonight and we should confirm at least a 6 seed in the NCAAs.

[Chili]

I don't think our finish in the Big East conference carries as much weight as some people think. The committee has said it will take conference strength of schedule into account for those who have unbalanced schedules. Since MU's was more difficult than teams in front of us - it is going to help.

Food for thought.

[NavinRJohnson]

I can't envision a single scenario where we get an 8 or a 9 seed. When you look at the numbers compared to last year, we are at least a seed better. I am convinced our seed can only go up over the next few days.

[ozmetal71]

Right now, I would take the 6 seed and matchup with Purdue that Lunardi has on ESPN's bracketology.

I think we have the potential to play ourselves up to a 4 seed if we can beat SJU and Pitt.  SJU gives a road win, plus Pitt would be three wins over a very highly rated opponent, and a neutral site victory.

At worst, if we lose tonight, we end up a 7.  We have a much stronger resume than last year's team.

[Chili]

Compare the years:

             2007         2006
Record:   22-8          19-10        
RPI:           23            31
SOS:          16            22
Top 25:     4-2            2-3  
Top 50:     6-5            3-6
51-100      2-2            6-4
100-200    9-1            7-0
200+         5-0            3-0    
RD/NT:      7-4            6-8

Note: In 2007 against the top 25 RPI teams 2 wins at home, 1 neutral and 1 road. 1 loss at home and 1 on the road. While in 2006 all 4 losses were on the road and the only wins were at home.

We have a better resume this year. If we win tonight and another road win we are golden. I just don't want a 5 seed. I would rather be the best 6 (hopefully in Columbus) than the any 5.


Key Wins:  

[Big Papi]

The unbalanced schedule will play a huge role.  Just because we finished 6th in conference does not mean that we are 6th in the pecking order.  From everything I am reading we are looked at as 4th best team in the conference.  So, I would be shocked if we had a lower seed than 6.  We have some very good wins this year that a lot of other teams can't compare.

[Sweenz]

I would also prefer a 6 seed... I think it is a sweet 16 year if we get that... many of the 3 seeds I believe are tough but very beatable... Memphis, Southern Illinois, and a Pitt team which we have already beat twice... if we move to a 7 seed, second round matchups would include North Carolina, Wisconsin, Georgetown and Texas A&M, two of which I am predicting to go to the Final Four...

Ofcourse all of this will change after the conference tournaments... but the difference between a 6 and a 7 this year is a large one with I think the NCAA has 8 or so really good teams this year, and everyone else very inconsistent... even the top 8 teams aren't perfect... but the drop off is there... so I would hope for a 6 or better.

[StillAWarrior]

(hopefully in Columbus)

Amen, brother.  From your keyboard to the committee's ears.

[Nukem2]

If we lose to SJU tonite and others have nice runs in conference tourneys, I still think MU may well drop to an 8 seed.  Need to win this one.

[NavinRJohnson]

If we lose to SJU tonite and others have nice runs in conference tourneys, I still think MU may well drop to an 8 seed. 

On what do you base that opinion? You need to come up with 28 teams that will be seeded ahead of MU in order to support that conclusion. I am having a hard time coming up with a solid 20. The numbers just don't supprt it.

[Chili]

If we lose to SJU tonite and others have nice runs in conference tourneys, I still think MU may well drop to an 8 seed.  Need to win this one.

Not a chance. SJU's RPI is 129 and it is a road game for MU. If we lose, we may drop to a 7. I currently think we are a 6.

[Dish]

You guys forget that the committee will seed us based on the S-Curve, and even though we maybe a "true" 6 seed (or 5 seed, 4 seed and so on), we can get bumped up or down a seed line based on teams from our conference in the S-Curve.

For example, if we finish as a 5 seed, and Louisville and Pitt wind up as 4 seeds on the S-Curve, we can possibly get bumped down to a 6 seed for no other reason than we can't play Pitt or Louisville in the second round as they are in our conference. If the two other teams on the 4 seed S-Curve line can't be moved down, then MU gets a 6 seed, through no fault of their own.