A take on BEast re-alignment I hadn't seen before

[tower912]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/481737-big-east-expansion-villanova-tcu-and-how-seton-hall-can-open-the-door-for-more

Villanova goes D-1 in football, TCU joins, Seton Hall leaves, leaving a 16 team conference with 10 football schools.   Basketball only in the NY, Chi, Milwaukee, DC, Providence TV markets. 

[ChicosBailBonds]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/481737-big-east-expansion-villanova-tcu-and-how-seton-hall-can-open-the-door-for-more

Villanova goes D-1 in football, TCU joins, Seton Hall leaves, leaving a 16 team conference with 10 football schools.   Basketball only in the NY, Chi, Milwaukee, DC, Providence TV markets. 

Where do we sign up for this?

[Dawson Rental]

Great ideas that would lead to a more stable, more competitive conference.  First rate thinking by somebody. (Tagliabue?)

BTW, the article is correct about Dallas, it is a major air hub.

[brewcity77]

The problem here is that it gives votes to 10 football schools, a vast majority. The odds are that it wouldn't be long before they decided the basketball schools were a drain on their income and replaced the 6 basketball-only schools with 2 football/basketball schools. I want a prosperous Big East, but an imbalance of football-onlys doesn't do Marquette any good in the long run.

[MuMark]

The basketball schools don't share in football revenues so they are not a drain on anything.

[PJDunn]

That plus the fact that college football is not nearly the draw in the northeast as it is in the rest of the country.  As long as we continue to compete at a high level in bball we will be OK.

[ChicosBailBonds]

The problem here is that it gives votes to 10 football schools, a vast majority. The odds are that it wouldn't be long before they decided the basketball schools were a drain on their income and replaced the 6 basketball-only schools with 2 football/basketball schools. I want a prosperous Big East, but an imbalance of football-onlys doesn't do Marquette any good in the long run.

As long as you establish the rules where it takes more than 10 to oust a member or split the conference, you should be ok.  If it was a simple majority vote, I'd be right there with you, but I don't think that will be the case.

[Aughnanure]

The basketball schools don't share in football revenues so they are not a drain on anything.

If all other conferences want to go to 16 teams, this will be an issue.

[Benny B]

If all other conferences want to go to 16 teams, this will be an issue.

Why?  At some point, the revenue per school (RPS) will peak... any adds beyond that will not make sense from the individual school's standpoint.

I wouldn't be surprised to see someone like Northwestern tearing Delany a new pujol in a few years because their revenue share hasn't experienced the projected gains, perhaps even diminished, ever since they added Nebraska.

Believe me, all this greed in college athletics is going to come back to bite someone in the rear.  The conference commissioners would be wise take a lesson from Wall Street's behavior over the past seven years -- the gravy train won't ride forever... the faster you're going when the tracks run out, the more catastrophic the crash.

[GGGG]

Why?  At some point, the revenue per school (RPS) will peak... any adds beyond that will not make sense from the individual school's standpoint.

I wouldn't be surprised to see someone like Northwestern tearing Delany a new pujol in a few years because their revenue share hasn't experienced the projected gains, perhaps even diminished, ever since they added Nebraska.

Believe me, all this greed in college athletics is going to come back to bite someone in the rear.  The conference commissioners would be wise take a lesson from Wall Street's behavior over the past seven years -- the gravy train won't ride forever... the faster you're going when the tracks run out, the more catastrophic the crash.

The per school gains may not project to what was intended, but it would be because of macro issues (the state of the economy) versus the gain in market share.  The B10 will increase per school revenue with the addition of Nebraska.  Look, the B10 has been extremely conservative when it comes to expansion.  They have added two schools over the past 20 years, both large state schools with huge football tradition, bordering on current B10 territory. 

What they have done is do a better job at leveraging their markets with the B10 Network, but they certainly haven't put themselves out there to the extent that you suggest.  Put it this way, their expansion has been much more systematic and well planned than the ACC's was.

[Aughnanure]

Why?  At some point, the revenue per school (RPS) will peak... any adds beyond that will not make sense from the individual school's standpoint.

I wouldn't be surprised to see someone like Northwestern tearing Delany a new pujol in a few years because their revenue share hasn't experienced the projected gains, perhaps even diminished, ever since they added Nebraska.

Believe me, all this greed in college athletics is going to come back to bite someone in the rear.  The conference commissioners would be wise take a lesson from Wall Street's behavior over the past seven years -- the gravy train won't ride forever... the faster you're going when the tracks run out, the more catastrophic the crash.

You think they want a 24 team basketball conference? Come on, if they can get to 16, or maybe even 12, they'll want to split and get rid of the stigma of being the only major conference with basketball-only schools

I would love to see a 24 team league - 12 basketball and 12 football preferably - but what do the football schools gain by still being associated as a basketball first conference when football is the driving force?

Not saying your points about revenue reaching a peak are wrong, but acting like the football schools would be okay with a 20-30 team league is too optimistic.

[Mr. Nielsen]

Seton Hall must go! Their arena is empty for games and they close off the upper deck.

[Benny B]

The per school gains may not project to what was intended, but it would be because of macro issues (the state of the economy) versus the gain in market share.

Very true... but what if the economy never recovers, in a matter of speaking?  If one were to assume that the current state of the economy is a mere anomaly and that it will return to the robust growth that we saw from 2004-2007, then unrealized expectations are easily explained and cast aside for future opportunity.

However, the levels of disposable income (which is where I would guess the majority of college athletic revenues come from) in the U.S. during that period were artificially inflated; moreover, they're never coming back.  As long as your forward projection, business model, or growth strategy doesn't rely on data from 2004-07, fine.

But all it seems like the only thing the conferences want to do is keep growing bigger, add market share, and gain more revenue -- that is exactly what drove the US economy to historical highs in 2007 (and historical lows several months later).

Yes, it does appear that the Big Ten is taking a prudent approach from what we've seen thus far.  But not every answer is to be the biggest, baddest mo-fo on the block.  There are numerous examples of the little guy competing quite favorably against the 800 lb gorilla.  You don't have to take down Goliath, you simply need to co-exist.  In other words, the Big East doesn't need to have a certain number of schools or a particular level of prestige to survive, it can survive regardless of circumstance so long as the leadership is in touch with reality, visionary, and responsible.

[GGGG]

Very true... but what if the economy never recovers, in a matter of speaking?  If one were to assume that the current state of the economy is a mere anomaly and that it will return to the robust growth that we saw from 2004-2007, then unrealized expectations are easily explained and cast aside for future opportunity.

But that means things will be bad all over.  IOW, the B10 might not get the revenue they projected, but they still are going to be at or near the top end of the revenue ladder in college sports.  It's not as though they are going to somehow slip behind the BE or something.

But all it seems like the only thing the conferences want to do is keep growing bigger, add market share, and gain more revenue -- that is exactly what drove the US economy to historical highs in 2007 (and historical lows several months later).

This is a bizarre analogy.  What hurt the American economy was an overreliance on debt to finance growth.  Gaining revenue is hardly a bad thing.

[MUBurrow]

one thing for TCU - it opens up the Dallas market, but do enough people care about TCU there to really make the whole thing worth it?  Will cable providers in Dallas make sure to care the BE network so viewers can get their Horned Frogs?  Further, will on the fence TCU fans even care if TCU is playing Pitt, WVU, and UConn instead of the smaller local TX schools?

[GGGG]

one thing for TCU - it opens up the Dallas market, but do enough people care about TCU there to really make the whole thing worth it?  Will cable providers in Dallas make sure to care the BE network so viewers can get their Horned Frogs?  Further, will on the fence TCU fans even care if TCU is playing Pitt, WVU, and UConn instead of the smaller local TX schools?

TCU doesn't play small Texas schools now.  They are in the Mountain West.

They are probably the most popular private school program in DFW, but substantially behind Texas, A&M, Tech, Okie and Okie State.  That being said, they probably could get a BE network on a tier of channels somewhere, but may not make a lot of money on the deal.  However, even if they could get $.10 per cable subscriber, that is still a bunch of money.

[MUBurrow]

okay that makes sense, i was just curious if anyone had the logistics.

I knew they were in the MWC, but I remember seeing them on tv against SMU a couple weeks ago, so i just assumed they had some ties to that type of school in the area.  then again, they could keep those nonconference ties even if they jumped i suppose.

[Dawson Rental]

one thing for TCU - it opens up the Dallas market, but do enough people care about TCU there to really make the whole thing worth it?  Will cable providers in Dallas make sure to care the BE network so viewers can get their Horned Frogs?  Further, will on the fence TCU fans even care if TCU is playing Pitt, WVU, and UConn instead of the smaller local TX schools?

If TCU can continue to be a top ten team, you bet they will.

[Dawson Rental]

Believe me, all this greed in college athletics is going to come back to bite someone in the rear.  The conference commissioners would be wise take a lesson from Wall Street's behavior over the past seven years -- the gravy train won't ride forever... the faster you're going when the tracks run out, the more catastrophic the crash.

I agree 100%.  My prediction: the payday will get so big that the schools won't be able to hold the line on not paying players.  When that happens, funding a BCS team at a school that is not a traditional power will become quite difficult.