[Cracked Sidewalks] The case for Jimmy F. Butler as the Big East POY

[CrackedSidewalksSays]

The case for Jimmy F. Butler as the Big East POY

Written by: noreply@blogger.com (Rob Lowe)

This article from Jeff Eisenberg really got our juices flowing earlier this week as did this scouting review with Mike Gansey.  In both of these articles Jimmy F. Butler was named the "Most Underrated Player" in the Big East.

One is anomaly, two is a trend.  As the start of the season gets closer we are sure that Butler's name will consistently be placed in the "most underrated" category, yet he will be ignored in far too many pre-season evaluations of the Big East's best players.

No offense to Jeff and his good intentions, but underrated lists are a back-handed compliment to a player as seasoned and productive as Jimmy F. Butler.  Throwing Butler on a list of underrated players is nothing more than code for 'east coast bias' or 'MU is not a traditional Big East power.'  Simply put, Jimmy F. Butler should be discussed as a logical choice for the pre-season Big East Player of the Year.

Jimmy F. Butler for BE POY!

For the first time in recent memory the race for Big East Player of the Year appears to be wide-open.   The league lacks a sure-fire NBA lottery pick amongst its proven upper-classmen and instead offers a host of talented players who are statistically comparable and will be expected to take major leaps forward this winter.

Let's look at the potential competition.  Some of the candidates being tossed around the interwebs are 6'3 senior Austin Freeman (GU), 6'1 senior Chris Wright (GU), 6'2 junior Ashton Gibbs (Pitt), 6'1 senior Chris Wright (Nova), 6'1 junior Kemba Walker (UConn), 6'8 junior Kevin Jones (WVU), and 6'7 junior Kris Joseph (SU).

How does Butler compare to the other POY candidates?




The chart above shows the players across different categories, with the average at the bottom.  The player with the best comparables by category is highlighted in green.

Let's start where Jimmy F. Butler is the best in the entire Big East.   Out of the group listed above Butler led all players in field goal percentage (0.530) last season.  Butler got to the line and made the most free throws amongst this peer group.   JFB also had the lowest turnover rate (technically tied with Gibbs above but better according to Pomeroy).    All of which leads to JFB being the most efficient returning player in the Big EAST (ORtg of 128.5).   This should not come as a surprise, since Butler was the conference's most efficient offensive performer last season too.

Back to the statistical comparison.  Butler was also the second best rebounder among the other potential candidates and had the second most blocks (both behind West Virginia's Kevin Jones).

Now for the intangibles; we believe Jimmy Butler is the Big East's best clutch performer. Why don't we revisit his two game winning shots from last year?  First he hit the game winning shot at UConn.

http://www.youtube.com/v/PDBbyen3Cqs?fs=1&hl=en_US

Then JFB delivered in overtime, on the road at St. John's.

http://www.youtube.com/v/AD5p_kg5oAo?fs=1&hl=en_US

Plus, don't forget how:

-  Butler scored 5 of his 13 total points against SHU last year in overtime & assisted on the only MU 3-pointer of the extra period.
-  Butler's breakaway dunk at Cincy in the waning moments was the backbreaker for the Bearcats in that game.
-  Butler scored 5 of MU's final 7 points to seal the win at Providence.


Where does Butler not stand out as the best in the Big EAST?




For starters in points per game, where  JFB's average of 14.7 ppg puts him behind Freeman, Wright, and Gibbs but ahead of Fisher, Walker, Jones, Joseph.    The highest returning average in this group is Freeman's 16.5 ppg.   Butler is also also in middle of this pack on assists, steals, and player fouls -- though he averaged more assists per game than Gibbs, a guard, and more steals per game than Freeman or Gibbs.

Finally, JFB was below average on total usage during his junior season, which simply means he just didn't get enough shots while playing second fiddle to Lazar Hayward.  This season Butler will be asked to step up his total usage and lead the Warriors.   You don't think Butler can step up?  Consider that last year he upped his scoring from 5.6 to 14.7 ppg, and his offensive efficiency only dropped from 131.2 to 128.5 -- the best in the Big East, both years.

That's right.  JFB was the Big East's most efficient offensive player as both a sophomore and junior.  How good has Jimmy been at Marquette? He was fourth in the country in this category as a sophomore and seventh in the nation as a junior.

Again, why is this guy popping up on underrated lists?

Is Jimmy F. Butler the best player in the Big East?

It's too early to say, and that's the point.  There is nobody in the list of potential candidates that is clearly the best player.  The race for BE POY is wide open, and JFB is in the race.  We believe JFB begins the race in the pole position but few seem to agree with us.

Let's stop talking about Butler being underrated and start talking about Jimmy F. Butler as the Big East Player of the Year.

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2010/09/case-for-jimmy-f-butler-as-big-east-poy.html

[rocky_warrior]

All the n00bs on the team that read this probably didn't know Jimmy's middle name starts with an F.   

[goodgreatgrand]

Interesting. But I dont hold much value in individual accolades. I can probably name the last 10 teams to win the conference, but no way in hell could I name the last 10 BE POY winners.

[BCHoopster]

The problem is that Jimmy may not even be the best player on the team this year, I think DJO really improves after viewing him this
summer, and college is a guard league.  Seeing Cadougan improvement, as well as Dwight, add Vanders points, Butler's points may go
down this year, not up.

[MUfan12]

All the n00bs on the team that read this probably didn't know Jimmy's middle name starts with an F.   

I always thought it was MF.

[Benny B]

I always thought it was MF.

That's only used when he does something wrong.

[LON]

That's only used when he does something wrong.

Jimmy F Butler is infallible.

[Henry Sugar]

Interesting. But I dont hold much value in individual accolades. I can probably name the last 10 teams to win the conference, but no way in hell could I name the last 10 BE POY winners.

Let me help you out
Big East Conference Men's Basketball Player of the Year

In principle, I agree with your statement.  However, we both know what Marquette is going to do as a team this year.  They'll finish 5th-7th, make the NCAA tournament, and (probably) lose the first game.  So, if winning the league isn't really an option...

The problem is that Jimmy may not even be the best player on the team this year, I think DJO really improves after viewing him this summer, and college is a guard league.  Seeing Cadougan improvement, as well as Dwight, add Vanders points, Butler's points may go down this year, not up.

Agreed that DJO may make the leap this year.  Disagree that Butler's points will go down.  Not as a senior and the leader of the team.

Still, our point remains that whatever you think of the BE POY award itself, or if Butler will even be as good as DJO, he deserves to be in the preseason conversation.

This is us providing some preseason hype.

[NYWarrior]

The problem is that Jimmy may not even be the best player on the team this year,

D.J.O.

[GGGG]

Now for the intangibles; Jimmy Butler is the Big East's best clutch performer.    This point is not up for debate.

I'm not exactly sure what this means because I am not sure how you measure something like this.  Jimmy has been put in situations where he has taken the last second shot, and he has hit those shots.  Is that clutch?  I guess.  Does that make him the best clutch performer?  I don't know if anyone can say that.

[NYWarrior]

I'm not exactly sure what this means because I am not sure how you measure something like this.  Jimmy has been put in situations where he has taken the last second shot, and he has hit those shots.  Is that clutch?  I guess.  Does that make him the best clutch performer?  I don't know if anyone can say that.

There's much more evidence of Jimmy's clutch play down the stretch:

-  Butler scored 5 of his 13 total points against SHU last year in overtime & assisted on the only MU 3-pointer of the extra period.
-  Butler's breakaway dunk at Cincy in the waning moments was the backbreaker for the Bearcats in that game.
-  Butler scored 5 of MU's final 7 points to seal the win at Providence.

The WVU game aside (and many from the team contributed to that gaffe), Butler was reliable down the stretch of games.

[GGGG]

Yeah, but I am sure that all sorts of players do those sorts of things for their teams.  I guess the "this point is not up for debate" is what made me snicker.  I mean, since it can't be really measured, it is thrown into the vast pool of "intangibles," but since it can't be measured how can it not be up for debate?

Just say "he's been proven to be a clutch performer."

[MUfan12]

There's much more evidence of Jimmy's clutch play down the stretch:

-  Butler scored 5 of his 13 total points against SHU last year in overtime & assisted on the only MU 3-pointer of the extra period.
-  Butler's breakaway dunk at Cincy in the waning moments was the backbreaker for the Bearcats in that game.
-  Butler scored 5 of MU's final 7 points to seal the win at Providence.

The WVU game aside (and many from the team contributed to that gaffe), Butler was reliable down the stretch of games.

Hit two huge FTs to push the lead to 3 against Georgetown as well.

[RawdogDX]

I'm not exactly sure what this means because I am not sure how you measure something like this.  
You can't measure intangibles.  That is what the word means.

Jimmy has been put in situations where he has taken the last second shot, and he has hit those shots.  Is that clutch?  
Yes, that is what clutch means

I guess.  
No, it's not a guess.  That is what everyone here takes clutch to mean.  Making plays at the end of the game, when it's on the line.

Does that make him the best clutch performer?  I don't know if anyone can say that.
Pretty sure that he was being tongue in cheek when he said the point wasn't up to debate. But you are wrong, someone can say that and back it up.

[RawdogDX]

Yeah, but I am sure that all sorts of players do those sorts of things for their teams.  I guess the "this point is not up for debate" is what made me snicker.  I mean, since it can't be really measured, it is thrown into the vast pool of "intangibles," but since it can't be measured how can it not be up for debate?

Just say "he's been proven to be a clutch performer."

How is "this point is not up for debate" & "[it has] been proven" even a little different?

[Henry Sugar]

Yeah, but I am sure that all sorts of players do those sorts of things for their teams.  I guess the "this point is not up for debate" is what made me snicker.  I mean, since it can't be really measured, it is thrown into the vast pool of "intangibles," but since it can't be measured how can it not be up for debate?

Just say "he's been proven to be a clutch performer."

I agree with you and changed the post

[wyoMUfan]

 Maybe not POY but 1st team for sure.

[GGGG]

How is "this point is not up for debate" & "[it has] been proven" even a little different?

In one case, he is making an absolute statement: "JB is the best clutch player in the BE."  To me, that cannot be said without some sort of measurable that backs it up.  I sincerely do not know if that is the case or not.  Prove it to me.

Another is a general statement: "JB is a clutch performer."  There is enough evidence to suggest that this is the case without needing a measurable.

And I saw Henry that the post was changed...you know I'm just being a little picky when in a posting with a bunch of measurable statistics, there is a phrase like that thrown in!  

[hoyasincebirth]

I'll just say that I think Austin Freeman is far and away the clear cut candidate for preseason POY. (well of course I do right)

Flat out I think he's the best player. I could throw out stats to make an argument and will if prompted, but stats can be twisted a lot of ways to make arguments.
He's the best scorer in the big east look at the games against Uconn and louisville.

I do agree that butler is underrated and should be a candidate for POY.

The real difference between Butler and the other candidates: Gibbs, Walker, Fischer, and Freeman is that Butler wasn't seen as a star or a leader last year. Gibbs, walker, Fischer, and Freeman are big names and leaders on their team. Butler is probably your best player next year, but it's not so clear cut as it is with these other players.

The main reason Butler isn't being considered is hype. But I don't necessarily blame the media for fans for that. Butler is an efficient scorer, but he doesn't put up huge numbers and isn't flashy.

Another point to look at is that the POY is usually the best player on the team that wins the conference or at least a team in the top 4. I think it will be a 3 horse race between Gibbs, Fischer, and Freeman because I see those 3 teams at the top of the league. I think Uconn's going to be too far down the conference ladder for Walker to get the award and frankly am not a fan of his game. If Butler and marquette have a good season and surprise he's a real possibility because he's a great basketball player.

[boyonthedock]

I'll just say that I think Austin Freeman is far and away the clear cut candidate for preseason POY. (well of course I do right)

Flat out I think he's the best player. I could throw out stats to make an argument and will if prompted, but stats can be twisted a lot of ways to make arguments.
He's the best scorer in the big east look at the games against Uconn and louisville.

I do agree that butler is underrated and should be a candidate for POY.

The real difference between Butler and the other candidates: Gibbs, Walker, Fischer, and Freeman is that Butler wasn't seen as a star or a leader last year. Gibbs, walker, Fischer, and Freeman are big names and leaders on their team. Butler is probably your best player next year, but it's not so clear cut as it is with these other players.

The main reason Butler isn't being considered is hype. But I don't necessarily blame the media for fans for that. Butler is an efficient scorer, but he doesn't put up huge numbers and isn't flashy.

Another point to look at is that the POY is usually the best player on the team that wins the conference or at least a team in the top 4. I think it will be a 3 horse race between Gibbs, Fischer, and Freeman because I see those 3 teams at the top of the league. I think Uconn's going to be too far down the conference ladder for Walker to get the award and frankly am not a fan of his game. If Butler and marquette have a good season and surprise he's a real possibility because he's a great basketball player.

please throw out stats

[goodgreatgrand]

I'll just say that I think Austin Freeman is far and away the clear cut candidate for preseason POY. (well of course I do right)

Flat out I think he's the best player. I could throw out stats to make an argument and will if prompted, but stats can be twisted a lot of ways to make arguments.
He's the best scorer in the big east look at the games against Uconn and louisville.

I do agree that butler is underrated and should be a candidate for POY.

The real difference between Butler and the other candidates: Gibbs, Walker, Fischer, and Freeman is that Butler wasn't seen as a star or a leader last year. Gibbs, walker, Fischer, and Freeman are big names and leaders on their team. Butler is probably your best player next year, but it's not so clear cut as it is with these other players.

The main reason Butler isn't being considered is hype. But I don't necessarily blame the media for fans for that. Butler is an efficient scorer, but he doesn't put up huge numbers and isn't flashy.

Another point to look at is that the POY is usually the best player on the team that wins the conference or at least a team in the top 4. I think it will be a 3 horse race between Gibbs, Fischer, and Freeman because I see those 3 teams at the top of the league. I think Uconn's going to be too far down the conference ladder for Walker to get the award and frankly am not a fan of his game. If Butler and marquette have a good season and surprise he's a real possibility because he's a great basketball player.

friendly wager?

gtown doesn't finish top 3. Pitt, Nova and Cuse finish higher. Gtown takes 4th.

[NersEllenson]

I'll just say that I think Austin Freeman is far and away the clear cut candidate for preseason POY. (well of course I do right)
Flat out I think he's the best player. I could throw out stats to make an argument and will if prompted, but stats can be twisted a lot of ways to make arguments.
He's the best scorer in the big east look at the games against Uconn and louisville.

Appreciate your thoughts and nice things you wrote about Jimmy Butler.  In return, I do like Freeman as a player...BUT...I'm going to have to disagree with you...I strongly believe that Darius Johnson Odom will be the premier guard in the Big East this year.  It would surprise me if Freeman puts up better numbers than DJO.  I see DJO being a 19-22ppg player this year in Big East play.  Now whether this translates into Big East POY - that probably will depend on if MU finishes higher than projected/very close to the top..say 1st or 2nd place.

[karavotsos]

It's a nice argument for JFB.  However, there are a couple of things working against him:

#1 He's not selfish enough.  I would say the main reason his offensive efficiency is consistently high is not because he played second fiddle to Hayward but because he does not take shots unless they are of the highest quality.  MU should have a number of scorers so Jimmy will not have to carry the load or push the issue.  Therefore, he will not have eye-popping scoring stats.

#2 An MU player will have to be significantly better than the competition in order to be named POY.  Look at Zar v. Wes Johnson last year.  Zar scored 1.5 more points per game on a team that tried to score in the 70's rather than the 90's.  He had one less rebound per game, but that can be attributed at least partially to Zar having to box out the biggest guy on the opposition.  WJ had freedom to go get rebounds, with 2 behemouths surrounding him.  Steals, Zar was slightly better, and assists WJ was slightly better, but both had low assist totals and both had high steal totals.  I understand that Johnson's offensive efficiency was most likely higher, but I doubt that's something that is high on the list of qualifications when someone's voting for POY.  And rather than being a big asset at the end of the year, WJ was limited by a broken hand.  Syracuse was much more balanced talent-wise than MU, and they did not rely heavily on Johnson to fill a huge gaping hole at the position he played.

That being said, if MU wins conference JFB should have a shot, so he should have a shot.

[goodgreatgrand]

Appreciate your thoughts and nice things you wrote about Jimmy Butler.  In return, I do like Freeman as a player...BUT...I'm going to have to disagree with you...I strongly believe that Darius Johnson Odom will be the premier guard in the Big East this year.  It would surprise me if Freeman puts up better numbers than DJO.  I see DJO being a 19-22ppg player this year in Big East play.  Now whether this translates into Big East POY - that probably will depend on if MU finishes higher than projected/very close to the top..say 1st or 2nd place.

If a player averages between 19-22 ppg, that player will typically finish in the top 3 in scoring in the conference. The last team to have a scorer finish in the top 3 and play on a team that finishes in the top 3 in the conference standings was ND in 07-08 (with Gody being the big scorer - ND finished 3rd). Before that was Foye who did it in 05-06 with Nova finishing 2nd. Statistically, its not necessarily a good thing to have a player score that many points. There are certainly exceptions. Im guessing Rudy Gay and Carmelo Anthony were able to do it and lead their team to success. 

[NersEllenson]

If a player averages between 19-22 ppg, that player will typically finish in the top 3 in scoring in the conference. The last team to have a scorer finish in the top 3 and play on a team that finishes in the top 3 in the conference standings was ND in 07-08 (with Gody being the big scorer - ND finished 3rd). Before that was Foye who did it in 05-06 with Nova finishing 2nd. Statistically, its not necessarily a good thing to have a player score that many points. There are certainly exceptions. Im guessing Rudy Gay and Carmelo Anthony were able to do it and lead their team to success. 

I don't necessarily disagree with your point, but in the case of MU this year I can see MU greatly benefitting from DJO scoring 20ppg..as I'm not sure our young guys will be ready to produce much in the way of scoring.  Think scoring will go in order:  DJO (20ppg), Jimmy (17), Buycks (13), Crowder (10), Fulce (8) - and that these 5 will account for 80% of MU's points..with the other 20% coming from Junior Cadougan, Vander Blue, Reggie Smith and Chris Otule.

This math would put MU scoring 72.5 ppg.  Probably about right for Big East play...