[Cracked Sidewalks] The case for Jimmy F. Butler as the Big East POY

[NumenFlumenque]

I don't necessarily disagree with your point, but in the case of MU this year I can see MU greatly benefitting from DJO scoring 20ppg..as I'm not sure our young guys will be ready to produce much in the way of scoring.  Think scoring will go in order:  DJO (20ppg), Jimmy (17), Buycks (13), Crowder (10), Fulce (8) - and that these 5 will account for 80% of MU's points..with the other 20% coming from Junior Cadougan, Vander Blue, Reggie Smith and Chris Otule.

This math would put MU scoring 72.5 ppg.  Probably about right for Big East play...

Actually that math would be 85 ppg. That's getting into 'Nova territory.

[NersEllenson]

Actually that math would be 85 ppg. That's getting into 'Nova territory.

Thanks for the correction..and yes..85ppg would be a little high..I see us in the 70-76 range most nights..

[Dr. Blackheart]

JFB is bigger than the BE Conference....JFB is Mr. East.  Kyle Singler?  Nope.  Jon Leuer? Nope.  Jordan Hamilton?  Nope. Jeff Taylor?  Nope.  Chris Singleton?  Nope. When talking SF's, they named the F after JFB's middle name.  The rest are posers.  

http://statsheet.com/statplot/builder?obj1=chris-singleton&cat1=player&ds1=1&start_season1=2007-2008&end_season1=2009-2010&stattype1=overtf&stat1=offensive_rating_pct&title1=C.+Singleton+Offensive+Rating+&color_ds1=630000&size_ds1=3&obj2=2-jordan-hamilton&cat2=player&ds2=1&start_season2=2007-2008&end_season2=2009-2010&stattype2=overtf&stat2=offensive_rating_pct&title2=J.+Hamilton+Offensive+Rating+P&color_ds2=D65D00&size_ds2=3&obj3=jeffery-taylor&cat3=player&ds3=1&start_season3=2007-2008&end_season3=2009-2010&stattype3=overtf&stat3=offensive_rating_pct&title3=J.+Taylor+Offensive+Rating+Pct&color_ds3=CECF9C&size_ds3=3&obj4=kyle-singler&cat4=player&ds4=1&start_season4=2007-2008&end_season4=2009-2010&stattype4=overtf&stat4=offensive_rating_pct&title4=K.+Singler+Offensive+Rating+Pc&color_ds4=082473&size_ds4=3&obj5=jimmy-butler&cat5=player&ds5=1&start_season5=2007-2008&end_season5=2009-2010&stattype5=overtf&stat5=offensive_rating_pct&title5=J.+Butler+Offensive+Rating+Pct&color_ds5=00246A&size_ds5=3&ds6=1&start_season6=2007-2008&end_season6=2009-2010&cat6=player&stattype6=overtf&stat6=offensive_rating_pct&s=&chart_sport=collegebasketball&chart_descr=&chart_bgpic=&chart_reverse=0&chart_type=line&chart_trendline=0&chart_txtcolor=000000&chart_width=700&chart_bgcolor=ffffff&chart_height=350&chart_legend=1&chart_title=SF+Career+Off+Rating&season=multi&dsadd-749=jon-leuer&x=147&y=12

[brewcity77]

One is anomaly, two is a trend.

Umm...no. Sorry, but while one may be an anomaly, that doesn't make two a trend. Two is a coincidence. Three is when it becomes a trend. Semantics, yes, but at least get your semantics right.

And I'd love to see JFB as the BEPOY

But that still doesn't make two a trend

[hoyasincebirth]

friendly wager?

gtown doesn't finish top 3. Pitt, Nova and Cuse finish higher. Gtown takes 4th.

I don't think there's a big difference between 3rd and 4th, but sure I'd take that bet. I'm an extreme optimist so it could definitely bite me since the range for where the hoyas could finish this year is pretty wide again anywhere from 1st to 8th. I would say 4th is very fair and would be a success, but I think we finish top 3. what's the bet?

[hoyasincebirth]

please throw out stats

Sorry forgot to check back to this thread.

Austin Freeman's eFG% is better than Butler's 60.2% vs. 55.9%
Austin Freeman's TS% is better than Butler's 63.4% vs. 63.2%
Austin Freeman's PPG is better than Butler's 16.5 vs. 14.7 although both players will probably go up next season.
Austin Freeman's Usage is higher 21.5 vs. 20.6 although both players will probably go up next season.
Austin Freeman's Assists and Assist rate are better 2.4 and 14.4 vs. 2.0 and 11.7
Austin Freeman's PF's and FC/40 are less 1.8 and 2.1 vs. 1.9 and 2.3
Austin Freeman's FT % is better 85.6% vs. 76.6%
Austin Freeman's 2ptFG% is better 56.8% vs. 53.4%
Austin Freeman is a better 3pt shooter hitting 44.4% on 133 shots. I know bulter's % was higher but he only took 32 of them.

Austin Freeman is a more explosive scorer at the Big East level scoring 33 and 29pts in big east play,  reaching over 20 pts 9 times against big east opponents, and only not reaching doube digits in 4 contests all year. While Butler's highest marks against BE foes are 21 and 20 he only reached 20 pts in the big east season those 2 times and failed to reach double digits on 7 occasions.  



as far as the major candidates:
Freeman has a better Ortg than Gibbs, Walker, and Fischer
Freeman has a better PPG than Gibbs, Walker, and Fischer
Freeman has a better FG% than Gibbs, Walker, and Fischer
Freeman has a better 3ptFG% than Gibbs, Walker, and Fischer
Freeman has a better 2ptFG% than Gibbs, Walker, and Fischer
Freeman has a better eFG% than Gibbs, Walker, and Fischer
Freeman has a better TS% than Gibbs, Walker, and Fischer
Freeman has a better OR% than Gibbs, Walker, and Fischer
Freeman has a better FT% than Walker, and Fischer but worse than Gibbs
Freeman has a better TOrate than Walker, and Fischer but worse than Gibbs
Freeman has a better DR% than Gibbs and Fischer but worse than Walker
Freeman has a better Arate than Gibbs but worse than Fischer and Walker which makes sense since the latter 2 are PGs while the first 2 are SGs.

[mug644]

Interesting comparisons between Butler and Freeman, with each poster choosing statistics that support his position (no surprise there), and each coming off looking convincing.

For me, the statistics (even the stats that Hoyasincebirth just posted) show that Butler should at least be included among those being talked about POY at this early stage, when there is no clear leading candidate. His stats are comparable to all others (Freeman included) that are mentioned.

That said, the thing that most grabbed me about Henry Sugar's first set of stats is not that only that Butler is the leader of numerous categories, but that in the second set, there was no clear leader across the categories. Again, I couldn't help but feel that he needs to be put among the list of potential POYs, even if an argument could be made for several players.

[Dr. Blackheart]

I will also note that JFB was playing out of position with no Big to distract the defense--although DJO and Zar were scorers to be reckoned with.  Gtown had Monroe, the All BE Center that they ran their offense through.  Will Freeman be as effective this season?  Will Jimmy with Zar gone and with question marks all over the starting line-up? 

While I think that GU's backcourt is the best in the BE, there are plenty of questions about their frontcourt.  Some think that GU will be better with Monroe gone as he had too many touches.  The Princeton Offense works better when running it through an impacful 5, is my feeling.  Who has the stronger supporting cast?  I don't know honestly at this point.

[Henry Sugar]

For me, the statistics (even the stats that Hoyasincebirth just posted) show that Butler should at least be included among those being talked about POY at this early stage, when there is no clear leading candidate. His stats are comparable to all others (Freeman included) that are mentioned.

That was exactly our point.  Let's talk about Jimmy as one of those POY candidates.

Hoyafan likes his guy.  We like ours.  Both have reasonable arguments.

[goodgreatgrand]

Hoya,

Who is going to run the triangle in 2011? Seems like GTown has been swinging and missing on every recruit. I just read that Thompson cancelled his visit....Is that true?

[Benny B]

Interesting comparisons between Butler and Freeman, with each poster choosing statistics that support his position (no surprise there), and each coming off looking convincing.

For me, the statistics (even the stats that Hoyasincebirth just posted) show that Butler should at least be included among those being talked about POY at this early stage, when there is no clear leading candidate. His stats are comparable to all others (Freeman included) that are mentioned.

That said, the thing that most grabbed me about Henry Sugar's first set of stats is not that only that Butler is the leader of numerous categories, but that in the second set, there was no clear leader across the categories. Again, I couldn't help but feel that he needs to be put among the list of potential POYs, even if an argument could be made for several players.

In other words, what a guy does this year makes everything he did last year moot.

For example, if Rob Frozena averaged 32.4 ppg, 17.2 rpg, 11.1 apg and *gasp* 14.8 steals per game in 2010-11 (basically, he goes Teen Wolf on us), you better believe he's winning not only BEPOY, but probably National POY, Player of the Decade, Player of the Century, Playboy of the Month, etc.  The fact that he has accumulated enough splinters in his buttocks over the past three years to fashion a Pinewood Derby car is irrelevant.

[Henry Sugar]

In other words, what a guy does this year makes everything he did last year moot.

Disagree somewhat.  If Butler starts in the "First Team / POY" candidate pool, it's easier for him to stay in that candidate pool.  If JFB starts on the outside of that candidate pool, his performance needs to be comparatively better in order to break in.

But yeah, he's got to produce on the court.

[hoyasincebirth]

"I'll just say that I think Austin Freeman is far and away the clear cut candidate for preseason POY. (well of course I do right)

Flat out I think he's the best player. I could throw out stats to make an argument and will if prompted, but stats can be twisted a lot of ways to make arguments.

I do agree that butler is underrated and should be a candidate for POY."

just quoting my original post to show I agree with all the points made.

Butler deserves to be in the discussion and stats can easily be picked out to favor an argument.
I specifically pulled stats that favored freeman. They're all perfectly legitimate stats, but I purposely left out stats where freeman was weak.


I think this year we'll be much more guard oriented and want force any of our big men to try and do their best monroe imitation because i don't think any are ready to do that right now. I think down the line Nate Lubick will be able to fill that role of a passing big, but I don't think he's ready as a freshman.

Our recruiting right now is in the craps for 2011.
We're already making strong in roads with the 2012 class so I think it'll be a 1 down year thing not a trend.
The issue was we lost our lead assistant recruiter at a critical time. I definitely didn't think it would affect us as much as it has, but it did. We're seemingly pretty screwed right now for the 2011 class. There are still a few top 100 players listing us but we're not confident about any of them. Quinn Cook( long shot only way we get him is if others pass on him), Mikael Hopkins (pretty much same deal, but he's the one I feel best about), and Rodeney Hood(rumors are he's not even going to visit) and Angelo Chol( rumor is he recently cut us, but I haven't seen it anywhere yet) appear to be the last major recruits still considering us. And yes Thompson apparently just cut us after visiting ohio st even though he had a visit set up for this weekend  don't know what to make of that.

There are still options for 2011 but I feel we'll only sign 2 maybe 3 guys and they'll be under the radar top 150 guys/unranked 3 star guys. We'll still get guys who can contribute at the big east level as upperclassmen, but it seems like the ship may be sailing on getting any impact freshman who can be stars as freshman.

We'll still have talent in 2011-2012 but we'll be thin: Jason Clark and Henry Sims as seniors; Hollis thompson, Jerrelle Benimon, and Vee Sanford as juniors,  Markel starks, Aaron Bowen, Nate Lubick, and Moses Abraham as sophomores. That's still plenty of talent but we'd be thin and it would require players to play up to their potential.

[Benny B]

Disagree somewhat.  If Butler starts in the "First Team / POY" candidate pool, it's easier for him to stay in that candidate pool.  If JFB starts on the outside of that candidate pool, his performance needs to be comparatively better in order to break in.

But yeah, he's got to produce on the court.

Let me rephrase... a player can make last season moot with a spectacular performance this year.  Someone can come out of nowhere and become a clear-cut POY... sure, he has more work to do, but nobody is going to disqualify a guy with a Wooden-worthy performance this year just because he didn't have one last year.

Basically, Jimmy Butler isn't on the list now.  That's not within his control.  But getting on the list and staying on the list is.  All he has to do is demonstrate that he is better than everyone else.  If he does, he's POY; if he doesn't, then he shouldn't be.