2008 NBA Draft

[Sweenz]

NBADraft.net no longer thinks James is coming out this year, which IS good news for Marquette, but maybe not James as the PG class is DEEP next year and may have him even stay two more years! They have him projected as the 27th pick to the Spurs. He is projected the 8th PG in the draft selected, and in the second round has a projected 11 PGs to be picked!

Those PGs ahead of James in 2008
#1 Overall- Rose, Memphis
#3 Mayo- USC (Seems more like a SG from the # of shots he takes a game)
#6 Collison- UCLA
#7 Crittenton- GA Tech
#13 Bayless- Arizona
#21 Lawson- UNC
#26 Sessions- Nevada
#27 James- MU to San Antonio backing up Tony Parker?

I know we shouldn't be obsessed with things that are not going to happen until the season is over and focus on a Pitt, Big East Tourney, and the NCCA Tourney run, but maybe we will get used to seeing DJames in a Marquette uniform.

[MU NY]

He can only improve his chances of being drafted higher with another year at Marquette in my opinion.  His shot is not going to get him into the first round in this year's draft.

[NotAnAlum]

#1 Overall- Rose, Memphis

Rose goes ahead of Oden and Durant????  I don't think so

[Final Four or Bust]

#1 Overall- Rose, Memphis

Rose goes ahead of Oden and Durant????  I don't think so

I suspect they anticipate Oden and Durant will go in the 2007 NBA Draft, not 2008.

[IAmMarquette]

#1 Overall- Rose, Memphis

Rose goes ahead of Oden and Durant????  I don't think so

PG rankings, not overall.

[NotAnAlum]

My bad, its the 2008 draft, Oden and Durant will be in the NBA by then.
By the way I have a friend who said "I'm not so sure Oden will come out, he might want to stay in for another year."
I said "For what reason?"  Is it possible to improve your draft position when you are already #1?

[spiral97]

My bad, its the 2008 draft, Oden and Durant will be in the NBA by then.
By the way I have a friend who said "I'm not so sure Oden will come out, he might want to stay in for another year."
I said "For what reason?"  Is it possible to improve your draft position when you are already #1?

some argued Florida's Noah was a #1 pick last year yet he stayed in school.. it does happen.  But agreed, 99.99% of the time, if you're pretty much a sure top 5 (heck top 10) draft pick you're likely to go pro.

[bartmiller#1]

Just my opinion, but I don't think Oden leaves OSU unless they win the NCAA title this year.

Will be interesting to see-- who knows what will happen.

[muwarrior87]

The '08 draft will be full of guards, James may just stay his sr year if he wants to be a high first round pick. Wouldn't that be a great team...the three sophs we have this year, Hayward, Acker, Cubey, Mbakwe, Christopherson...that'd be an amazing team, not saying we'll have all those guys at that point but that'd be amazing if we did.

[spartan3186]

Ive heard numerous rumors that Oden doesn't really want to leave. He's serious about his academics. Oden apparently wants to be an accounting major and in high school he had a 3.6 GPA. At one point oden even said "Finishing school would mean a lot, I want to further myself in areas other than just basketball."

The NBA offers a lot of money, but it appears that Oden wants something more than money. I have a ton of respect for him, not many people can keep a level head the way he does.

[NavinRJohnson]

"Finishing school would mean a lot, I want to further myself in areas other than just basketball."

If I had a nickle for every time a guy made comments like that, I'd be as rich as the guys who made the comments.

With the first pick in the 2007 NBA Draft, the Milwaukee Bucks select Greg Oden, Ohio State University.

[mu03eng]

I think Oden may stay at OSU, seems a level headed kid and he probably realizes he needs at least another year to be able to hang with the NBA.  Oden is not yet NBA ready, he certainly isn't dominating teams....some of that is Matta's offense, some is Oden's hand injury, and some is he's not ready.

Besides I am willing to bet a lot that Oden wouldn't be the #1 overall.....Its going to be Durant, that kid just has ridiculous amounts of game and is perfect for the association.

[Murffieus]

Everyone assumes DJ gets better by staying----remember Chris Thomas at ND a few years back (after either his frosh or Soph year) was ranked relatively high in the mocks------he didn't opt thinking he would be higher the next year----it didn't happen as he fell off the charts.

He bet that his chances would improve----but they didn't----had he gone into the draft he would have tasted some decent money for at least a few years!

Some guys peak early----is DJ one? Only time will tell!

[Marquette84]

Just so people actually know what they're talking about when they suggest that a sure top 5 NBA draft pick should "stay in school because he's not ready", I suggest perusing the NBA rookie scale.

http://www.insidehoops.com/salaries-rookies.shtml

We have a discussion on a guy like Oden--who would easily be a top 5 pick, if not #1 overall.

#5:   
1st year: $2,372,800.00  Guaranteed
2nd year: $2,550,700.00  Guaranteed
3rd year: $ 2,728,700.00  Team option

Total Guaranteed:  $4,923,500

Granted, a #1 overall gets more--a lot more.  If staying one more year means jumping from #5 to #1, the salary jumps to $7.5 Million--about $2.5 million more total.

The upside is $2.5 million more over two years.
The risk is lose $4.9 million and wind up with nothing.

Now, if my father were a former tennis great or NBA player with multi-millions in career earnings, I might not worry about family income. 

However, if my family was at best middle class--or at worst living hand-to-mouth--I might decide that $5 million in the hand is worth more than risking it for $7.5 million. 

Finally, can we put away the assumption that players don't improve unless they're in a college setting.  If a player has the latent talent to improve in college by staying another year, he'll be able to improve in the NBA as well.  Its not as if the college ranks have some magic patent on player development.  As a pro, any player will be able to afford individual coaching and devote more time to his game than he ever would carrying a full load of courses.

[drewm88]

Finally, can we put away the assumption that players don't improve unless they're in a college setting.  If a player has the latent talent to improve in college by staying another year, he'll be able to improve in the NBA as well.  Its not as if the college ranks have some magic patent on player development.  As a pro, any player will be able to afford individual coaching and devote more time to his game than he ever would carrying a full load of courses.

I agree with you that players can obviously improve while in the NBA, but I think college can do even more. The player is almost always getting much more playing time in college, and game experience is something that can't be duplicated. Also, college gives a future marginal NBA player the opportunity to be "the man," to take over in crunch time, to LEAD. That's experience that will help anyone.
Plus, one can get into the argument that college develops the person as a whole. Sorry for sounding like Coach K, but it's true.

[Wade for President]

Just so people actually know what they're talking about when they suggest that a sure top 5 NBA draft pick should "stay in school because he's not ready", I suggest perusing the NBA rookie scale.

http://www.insidehoops.com/salaries-rookies.shtml

We have a discussion on a guy like Oden--who would easily be a top 5 pick, if not #1 overall.

#5:   
1st year: $2,372,800.00  Guaranteed
2nd year: $2,550,700.00  Guaranteed
3rd year: $ 2,728,700.00  Team option

Total Guaranteed:  $4,923,500

Granted, a #1 overall gets more--a lot more.  If staying one more year means jumping from #5 to #1, the salary jumps to $7.5 Million--about $2.5 million more total.

The upside is $2.5 million more over two years.
The risk is lose $4.9 million and wind up with nothing.

Now, if my father were a former tennis great or NBA player with multi-millions in career earnings, I might not worry about family income. 

However, if my family was at best middle class--or at worst living hand-to-mouth--I might decide that $5 million in the hand is worth more than risking it for $7.5 million. 

Finally, can we put away the assumption that players don't improve unless they're in a college setting.  If a player has the latent talent to improve in college by staying another year, he'll be able to improve in the NBA as well.  Its not as if the college ranks have some magic patent on player development.  As a pro, any player will be able to afford individual coaching and devote more time to his game than he ever would carrying a full load of courses.

Interesting...that site has DJ going #8 in this year's draft.  Granted, that was updated in December.....I have a feeling that might be a little different now.

[IAmMarquette]

"Finishing school would mean a lot, I want to further myself in areas other than just basketball."

If I had a nickle for every time a guy made comments like that, I'd be as rich as the guys who made the comments.

With the first pick in the 2007 NBA Draft, the Milwaukee Bucks select Greg Oden, Ohio State University.

Bucks have Bogut. I think it'd be more like this...
With the first pick in the 2007 NBA Draft, the Milwaukee Bucks select Kevin Durant, University of Texas.

[Wareagle]

However, if my family was at best middle class--or at worst living hand-to-mouth--I might decide that $5 million in the hand is worth more than risking it for $7.5 million.

That money alone isn't the end of the calculation.  You have to also figure out the future value of the one additional year of earnings as an unrestricted NBA free agent Oden would get.  So theoretically, an extra year spent in college could cost someone like Oden upwards of $6-10+ mil at the end of his career.  He's actually risking more than $2.5 million in future earnings. 

[Marquette84]

You have to also figure out the future value of the one additional year of earnings as an unrestricted NBA free agent Oden would get.  So theoretically, an extra year spent in college could cost someone like Oden upwards of $6-10+ mil at the end of his career.  He's actually risking more than $2.5 million in future earnings. 

Thats very true--for someone who knows they're going to spend a long time in the league, and be eligible for a big bump on the first contract renewal, its a no brainer to leave as early as possible. 

I wanted to show the worst case possiblity--the upside and downside for a player who doesn't even play his option year.

As for this comment from another poster:
*** The player is almost always getting much more playing time in college

Is he really? 

He might have averaged more minutes per game in college, but only played 36 or so games with a 35 second shot clock.  Compare that to 5 rookie league + 8 exhibition + 82 regular season + playoffs--every single one of them facing another NBA caliber opponent and a 24 second shot clock.  I'd be willing to bet that when all is said and done, more first rounders will play more offensive sets than they did their final year in college, and by a huge margin if you only consider NBA quality opposition. 

[Wareagle]

Great points 84.  I just tailored my analysis to sure fire NBA talent.  As far as improving in college vs. the NBA, I think you're right on.  Unless the player's OOC schedule varies from the norm, that player thinking of going pro would only see 2-3 halfway decent teams in the first 10 games of the season.  Playing against the Cardinal Stritch's of the college basketball world affords few learning opportunities.

[77ncaachamps]

I'd love to see DJ play with Greg Clausen.

In the NBDL.

Kidding.

The best scenario for him now is to heat up in the BE Tourney and the NCAAs and get drafted high...I'm just concerned about his individual workouts.