even weaker BE next year

[goodgreatgrand]

Early entrants:

Wes Johnson declared today
Devin Ebanks declared last night
Lance Stephenson
Dominique Jones
Who else?

Graduated Out of Eligibility (notables):
Hayward
Andy Rautins
Arinze Onuaku
Stanley Robinson
DaSean Butler
Deonta Vaughn
Jerome Dyson
Gavin Edwards
Edgar Sosa
Jerry Smith
Luke Harangoudy
Jermaine Dixon
Hamady Naidye
Anthony Mason Jr.
Scottie Reynolds

Top 50 recruits coming in:

Fab Melo - Syracuse (Scout ranking - 7)
Justin Coleman - Louisville (25)
Vander Blue - MU (27)
Dion Waiters - Syracuse (28)
Roscoe Smith - UConn (32)
Jayvaughn Pinkston - Nova (35)
Nate Lubick - GTown (37)
Plus several Undecided.

[flash]

Villanova is going to have a solid team again.  Cheek, Wayns, and Yarou are all going to be awesome as sophomores, Stokes, Fisher and King are also going to be solid returning players.  Villanova is going to be tough again next season.

[goodgreatgrand]

If Monroe stays, the GTown team will stay completely intact.

Pitt and Nova will be really tough.

UConn could land one of the top recruits that is still undecided. Even with a top recruit, they may spin their wheels for one more year.

Syracuse loses 3 starters (just like the year before). And like last year, I think they are the biggest unknowns to begin the season. It's just impossible to know what Boeheim has on his bench because he doesnt ever play more than 7. My friends that are alums say James Southerland (a freshman this year) might be one of the best players on their team next year). Odd.

[bilsu]

I think the Big 12, SEC, and ACC are losing more talent than the Big East.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

I think the Big 12, SEC, and ACC are losing more talent than the Big East.

and the big 10/11 has no talent.   

[brewcity77]

My friends that are alums say James Southerland (a freshman this year) might be one of the best players on their team next year). Odd.

That's what this thread doesn't take into account. How many players that have had limited roles on these teams could emerge as great players next year? Did anyone outside of Milwaukee think that Jimmy Butler would be a difference maker this season? What about DJO, who wouldn't be mentioned as a top 50 recruit because he's a JuCo? And were all those guys on that list top 50 when they arrived? Was Dominique Jones? Hayward? Rautins? Just because you don't know who some of the top players will be next year doesn't mean they aren't already here in the conference.

[reinko]

'Cuse does win for coolest college basketball player name...Fab Melo.  Dude sounds like he is from the future.

[Norm]

Mike Rosario and Greg Echenique plan to transfer out of Rutgers. Patrick Jackson also left the program.

Herb Pope and Jeremy Hazell have declared for the draft from Seton Hall. Robert Mitchell was kicked out of school there and I believe Jeff Robinson is leaving too.

Jordan Dumars is transferring from South Florida to Michigan.

[GGGG]

'Cuse does win for coolest college basketball player name...Fab Melo.  Dude sounds like he is from the future.

Close.  He's from Brazil.  And his real name is Fabricio De Melo.

[muhoosier260]

Close.  He's from Brazil.  And his real name is Fabricio De Melo.

Is that Portuguese for "seed of Melo", as in Anthony?

[tower912]

Bully for us, then and it looks like an even softer bubble next year.   

[brewcity77]

With a 96 team field, we should never miss another tourney again, period.

[ChicosBailBonds]

With a 96 team field, we should never miss another tourney again, period.

So if we start missing the tournament in the future, should the coach be fired since we should never miss it again?

I'm simply asking.

[goodgreatgrand]

So if we start missing the tournament in the future, should the coach be fired since we should never miss it again?

I'm simply asking.

Depends. If you are talking about a high D-1 program then no. To fire the coach is simply not enough. Capital punishment Iran-style is far more appropriate.

[Chicago_inferiority_complexes]

So if we start missing the tournament in the future, should the coach be fired since we should never miss it again?

I'm simply asking.

If the number of at-large bids is going to expand by 75%, then yes, any head coach of Marquette who misses the tournament should be fired. If not after one miss, most definitely two misses. It probably means 1-2 years at 12-16th in the BE. That should be unacceptable for Marquette given the resources the university has poured into the program.

[MerrittsMustache]

If the number of at-large bids is going to expand by 75%, then yes, any head coach of Marquette who misses the tournament should be fired. If not after one miss, most definitely two misses. It probably means 1-2 years at 12-16th in the BE. That should be unacceptable for Marquette given the resources the university has poured into the program.

Even if there is the prerequesite that a team must finish over .500 in conference?

[GGGG]

Even if there is the prerequesite that a team must finish over .500 in conference?

They don't have that prerequesite now.  Are they considering that?

[brewcity77]

I can't possibly see a prerequisite of a .500 record, since we've seen teams get in to the Dance in the past with sub-.500 records (like Georgia Tech this year). My guess is that you will see automatic bids given to regular season champions, which will probably mean an extra 10-12 automatic bids since most regular season champs are already in. And of the additional 20 or so at-large bids, most will go to the typical BCS conference teams. This year, it would have been teams like Seton Hall, Illinois, Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, Texas Tech, and Mississippi getting the at-large bids.

Looking at the NIT field, I have to think that even North Carolina would get in ahead of a lot of teams that might be more deserving, because they will bring in more money. A 5-11 record in the ACC might not be worth much, but don't kid yourself into thinking this move by the NCAA is about anything other than money. People will watch teams like UNC, Arizona, Illinois, and other big name teams even in down years. All they care about are money and ratings. Why else would Duke get such an easy road to the Final Four? Love them or hate them, people watch the Dukies. Don't think the selection committee wasn't cognizant of that fact.

[MerrittsMustache]

I can't possibly see a prerequisite of a .500 record, since we've seen teams get in to the Dance in the past with sub-.500 records (like Georgia Tech this year). My guess is that you will see automatic bids given to regular season champions, which will probably mean an extra 10-12 automatic bids since most regular season champs are already in. And of the additional 20 or so at-large bids, most will go to the typical BCS conference teams. This year, it would have been teams like Seton Hall, Illinois, Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, Texas Tech, and Mississippi getting the automatic bids.

Looking at the NIT field, I have to think that even North Carolina would get in ahead of a lot of teams that might be more deserving, because they will bring in more money. A 5-11 record in the ACC might not be worth much, but don't kid yourself into thinking this move by the NCAA is about anything other than money. People will watch teams like UNC, Arizona, Illinois, and other big name teams even in down years. All they care about are money and ratings. Why else would Duke get such an easy road to the Final Four? Love them or hate them, people watch the Dukies. Don't think the selection committee wasn't cognizant of that fact.

You seem to use the term "automatic bids" to mean different things in your post. I think you meant at-large bids when mentioning Illinois, VaTech, et al?

Either way, there's not a chance they'll give auto bids to the regular season champs and do away with the conference tournament$.

[MerrittsMustache]

They don't have that prerequesite now.  Are they considering that?

I've heard the idea thrown around, but I don't know how much truth there is to it. Personally, I'd like to see it - sort of like being "bowl eligible" in football.

[TJ]

You seem to use the term "automatic bids" to mean different things in your post. I think you meant at-large bids when mentioning Illinois, VaTech, et al?

Either way, there's not a chance they'll give auto bids to the regular season champs and do away with the conference tournament$.

They could however grant two automatic bids to each conference - one to the regular season champ and one to the conference tournament winner.  I think that if expansion to 96 happens, this is an absolute must.

[MerrittsMustache]

They could however grant two automatic bids to each conference - one to the regular season champ and one to the conference tournament winner.  I think that if expansion to 96 happens, this is an absolute must.

Besides money, one of the biggest reasons for expansion is because there are too many automatic bids from small conferences. Theoretically doubling that number isn't going to accomplish much. Also, what is the incentive for the regular season champ to play in the conference tournament? They'd basically be playing exhibition games and likely mailing it in, thus weakening the tournament and potentially allowing an "unworthy" team to get an automatic bid.

[brewcity77]

Besides money, one of the biggest reasons for expansion is because there are too many automatic bids from small conferences. Theoretically doubling that number isn't going to accomplish much. Also, what is the incentive for the regular season champ to play in the conference tournament? They'd basically be playing exhibition games and likely mailing it in, thus weakening the tournament and potentially allowing an "unworthy" team to get an automatic bid.

Fixed the one mistaken auto bid in my post. They won't do away with the conference tournaments, you are right about that. Way too much money there. I do think they will give auto bids to both conference tourney winners and regular season champions. Here are the additional automatic bids that would have gone out had this year been a 96-team tournament:

Code Select Expand

Team               Conference  Conf. W/L     Overall W/L

Stony Brook        America East   13-3         22-10
Campbell           Atlantic Sun   14-6         19-11
Weber State        Big Sky        13-3         20-11
Coastal Carolina   Big South      15-3         28-7
Kent State         Mid-American   13-3         24-10
Quinnipiac         Northeast      15-3         23-10
Jackson State      SWAC           17-1         19-13

South Dakota       Great West     11-1         22-10

Those are the only new automatic bids you would add in. First, South Dakota is separate from the rest because they would be in next year regardless. The Great West didn't get a bid this year as a new conference, but they were both regular season and conference tournament champs, so next year they would have received an automatic bid. So you are really only adding 7 teams as automatic bids that wouldn't have been in this year. Every other regular season conference champion received a bid to the Big Dance, whether through winning their conference tournament or through an at-large bid.

That means if they upped the field by the proposed 31 teams, you would be adding 24 at-large bids. It's not as if they'd fill the field with a bunch of nobodies. Of the teams above, only Weber State and Jackson State had losing records in their non-conference seasons. Everyone knows Weber State is capable of the occasional upset, so I'd say the only truly poor quality team added in by giving regular season champions automatic bids would be Jackson State. I'll admit I don't know the circumstances that led to them going from a 2-12 non-conference record to a 17-1 conference mark, maybe it was a player back from injury, or maybe they are just the best team in a bad conference, but if you allow this and only add one or two truly bad teams in exchange for the regular season having meaning for every team in the country, I think it's a worthwhile trade.

[TheButlerDidIt]

Besides money, one of the biggest reasons for expansion is because there are too many automatic bids from small conferences. Theoretically doubling that number isn't going to accomplish much. Also, what is the incentive for the regular season champ to play in the conference tournament? They'd basically be playing exhibition games and likely mailing it in, thus weakening the tournament and potentially allowing an "unworthy" team to get an automatic bid.

Seeding...

Rather than having the bubble teams in/out of the tournament, bracketologists will probably be looking at the bubble around the cut off for first-round byes-the top 32 teams.

It seems that in future tournaments that teams will 1.) play well enough to ensure that they are going to be one of the tourney teams and once that is secured 2.) ensure that they have one of the top 32 spots locked up to avoid possibly playing 3 games in six days if they are fortunate enough to do so.

[GGGG]

Fixed the one mistaken auto bid in my post. They won't do away with the conference tournaments, you are right about that. Way too much money there. I do think they will give auto bids to both conference tourney winners and regular season champions.

Why would you think that?

This is all about $$$ and increasing viewership.  Adding a bunch of low-major conference champions isn't going to draw in the numbers.  (Furthermore create the incentive for conferences to "toss" their regular season champion from the conference tournament.)  Outside of possibly giving an auto bid to the Great West, I can pretty much guaranty you that all new bids will be to at-large schools, the majority of which will be from BCS conferences.