[Cracked Sidewalks] This year's points scored & allowed almost as good as 1970s, 2003

[CrackedSidewalksSays]

This year's points scored & allowed almost as good as 1970s, 2003

Written by: jpudner@concentricgrasstops.com (bamamarquettefan1)

Marquette’s 21-point domination of Louisville is statistically a very good sign for the post season.  That win is the only time this season a team has beaten anyone in the top half of the Big East by 20+ points, and Marquette is now the only team in the Big East to win three conference games by 20+.

The fact that Marquette has proven they can blow teams away while never getting blown out even against the top teams in the country is a very good indicator that they are better than their record indicates.  In fact, I sent an email around to a pretty good size list of sports journalists and athletic departments back in January noting that there were only a few teams in the country that had yet to lose a game by double digits.

Still one of only 7 teams not to lose by double digits

As of today, there are still seven.  Three of the seven teams yet to lose by double digits have been projected No. 1 seeds (Kentucky, Kansas and Purdue/pre-injury) and two play in non-BCS Conferences (Murray State and Dayton).

The two surprise teams in that email were Baylor (who had the 94th best RPI in early January) and Marquette (104th).  The fact that even the really good teams couldn’t blow out Baylor or Marquette early in the season was a sure indication they were better than their record and RPI indicated, and sure enough Baylor has improved 84 spots in the RPI from 94th to  10th and Marquette has improved 57 spots from 104th to 47th. (last year Marquette lost six games by double digits, and averaged only a 9-point victory margin during the regular season).

Marquette’s plus-11 victory margin just shy of 1970s and 2003 margin of plus-12

The fact is, Marquette’s average score of 74.2 points scored to 63.6 allowed is more indicative of a 22-7 team according to the Pythagorean Formula designed by Bill James:

2153 points scored to the 7th divided by
2153 + 1844 points scored and points allowed both to the 7th
Times Games played equals 21.7 wins

And in every sport, most teams that have fewer wins than the Pythagorean Formula indicates improve because they truly are better than their record indicates.

When I did the book on Marquette basketball, I noted that in the great 1970s Marquette’s average game score was 74-62, and that this 12-point margin wasn’t reached again until 2003, when MU averaged winning 73-61. (The best ever was Jim Chones’ only full season, at 82-63).

The great teams lose a few, but they play the other great teams close, they handle the mediocre teams with some room to spare, and they blow out the weaker teams.

Average score against potential NCAA opponents?

The breakdown of MUs average margin based on where their opponent is currently ranked on www.kenpom.com is:

Vs. a top 20 team (1 to 5 seed), a 67-69 average loss in seven games
Vs. a team between 21st and 40th (6 to 10 seed), a 63-58 win
Vs. a team between 41st and 100th (11 seed or lower), a 77-70 win
Vs. non-Top 100 teams (maybe a qualifier), an 81-57 win.

So if MU is seeded between 7th to 10th, they’d play a first round game against a team that was roughly comparable to teams they’ve averaged beating 63-58, with a second round game against one of the top teams in the country, against which MU has averaged losing 67-69.

This team has potential â€" and now that we are winning close games …

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2010/03/this-years-points-scored-allowed-almost.html

[77ncaachamps]

But those teams had legit big men.

*bah* Sweet Sixteen and done...

[marquette99]

Gosh, after watching how much better notre dame is without gody, I'm starting to wonder if we really need a legit big man.  I'd take a sweet 16 this year anyway.

[thepowerrank]

Nice analysis.  Margin of victory is crucial in evaluating teams.  Jeff Sagarin's predictor rankings that account for margin of victory are much better at predicting the outcome of future games than any of his systems.  (Not that he tells us how good his predictions are...)  It's really frustrating when people (like some committee that's about to make a decision about 65 teams) only consider win-loss and just toss out all the extra information about margin of victory.

The pythagorean analysis is also interesting.  I think this analysis inherently assumes that a team has an average strength of schedule.  This is clearly not the case in the Big East, so this system possibly underrates MU.

[nycwarrior]

Savor the moment is right.

This is supposed to be our "reloading/rebuilding/bridge" year.

For Buzz and the beautifully coached group to win twice on college basketball's biggest stage...

Um, Sweet 16 would be awesome.

Let's get greedy if we're still standing the weekend AFTER St. Paddy's Day.