Lunardi's 2/12 Bracketology

[mwbauer7]

LAST FOUR IN
Ole Miss
Charlotte
Oklahoma State
Marquette

Detailed Rundown

Marquette
No one is talking much about Marquette, which has quietly won four in a row. The remaining schedule is also fairly benign.

Seed Report:
S-Curve history: 66 (Nov. 9), 78 (Dec. 15), 79 (Jan. 4), 72 (Jan. 11), 68 (Jan. 18), 74 (Jan. 25), 68 (Feb. 1), 66 (Feb. 8), 47 (Feb. 12).

Bracket Bytes:
Odds to remain in NCAA field: 55 percent.

Good Wins
RPI 1-25: N-Xavier, Georgetown
RPI 26-50: none

Bad Losses
RPI 101-200: NC State, @DePaul
RPI 201+: none

edit: Should mention we are playing as a 12 seed (how perfect would that be?) against 5th seeded Temple in NOLA.

[LON]

LAST FOUR IN
Ole Miss
Charlotte
Oklahoma State
Marquette

Detailed Rundown

Marquette
No one is talking much about Marquette, which has quietly won four in a row. The remaining schedule is also fairly benign.

Seed Report:
S-Curve history: 66 (Nov. 9), 78 (Dec. 15), 79 (Jan. 4), 72 (Jan. 11), 68 (Jan. 18), 74 (Jan. 25), 68 (Feb. 1), 66 (Feb. 8), 47 (Feb. 12).

Bracket Bytes:
Odds to remain in NCAA field: 55 percent.

Good Wins
RPI 1-25: N-Xavier, Georgetown
RPI 26-50: none

Bad Losses
RPI 101-200: NC State, @DePaul
RPI 201+: none

Can someone give a really brief explanation on how that S-Curve works...

The change from 66 to 47 is what I'm specifically referring to.  Is that because we had some teams that had beneficial losses in the last few days (beneficial to MU, that is)?

[ZiggysFryBoy]

the s curve is ranking teams 1-65 and then snaking back and forth, so 1, 2,3,4 are all 1 seeds, then snaking back is 5,6,7,8, so the 8th best team is matched up opposite the best team.

it's like a fantasy football draft, if you've done one of those.

[Brewtown Andy]

Can someone give a really brief explanation on how that S-Curve works...

The change from 66 to 47 is what I'm specifically referring to.  Is that because we had some teams that had beneficial losses in the last few days (beneficial to MU, that is)?

The S-Curve is the "natural" seeding lines.  Teams 1-4 are the 1 seeds, 5-8 are the 2s, etc.  For fairness' sake, you want the #8 team (the worst two seed) to end up in the same region as the #1 team (the best 1 seed).  Sometimes teams have to be moved for procedural reasons, so the Curve allows you to see "oh, well, they're really a 7, but had to be an 8 to stop too many Big 12 teams in that bracket" or whatever.

A 20 spot jump is rare, especially when a team doesn't play a game between brackets, so I'm guessing this one is completely about what's been happening with everyone else.

[LON]

Much appreciated, all.

[wiscoave]

Can someone post the link to the full bracket? I cant find it on espn...

[DJO's Pump Fake]

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology


Go to espn.com and click on Men's Basketball, Lazar looks great!

[MUFan07]

The S-Curve is the "natural" seeding lines.  Teams 1-4 are the 1 seeds, 5-8 are the 2s, etc.  For fairness' sake, you want the #8 team (the worst two seed) to end up in the same region as the #1 team (the best 1 seed).  Sometimes teams have to be moved for procedural reasons, so the Curve allows you to see "oh, well, they're really a 7, but had to be an 8 to stop too many Big 12 teams in that bracket" or whatever.

A 20 spot jump is rare, especially when a team doesn't play a game between brackets, so I'm guessing this one is completely about what's been happening with everyone else.

Our 20 spot jump is mainly due to us being in as opposed to out.  #66 is that first team out.  However, now that we are in the field of 65 we jump to #47 because there are several Automatic bids that will be seeded below us.

[KipsBayEagle]

If this bracket were to materialize and come true, I think most intelligent fans would pick Marquette to get to the sweet 16.
Side note:  Lazar hayward looks like he is going to kill someone on the espn college basketball homepage

[MUfan12]

I would kill for this draw.

And a weekend in New Orleans... please let this happen.

[MU B2002]

Vanderbilt is not exactly a pushover.

[copious1218]

Vanderbilt is not exactly a pushover.

Nor is Temple - they knocked off Nova early in the year and lost to G'Town by 1.

[Sir Lawrence]

On another sidenote, it doesn't look like Joe Lunardi has missed many meals lately.....

[KipsBayEagle]

No teams a pushover once you get in the tournament.  That being said, could you ask for a more favorable draw for a 12 seed?

[KC_Warrior]

I would kill for this draw.

And a weekend in New Orleans... please let this happen.

Agreed.  A 5-12 game vs. Temple in NOLA...where do I sign up? 

[Aughnanure]

Wow. Lazar does looks like an absolute beast.

[Strokin 3s]

What I don't get is under the last 4 in it has Ole Miss and Charlotte listed along with MU and Oklahoma St.  However, Ole Miss and Charlotte are 11 seeds and MU and OSU 12.  Shouldn't all 4 truly be 12's if they are the last 4 in?

[MU B2002]

edit


nm

[KipsBayEagle]

League bids would cut into 12 seeds.

[copious1218]

What I don't get is under the last 4 in it has Ole Miss and Charlotte listed along with MU and Oklahoma St.  However, Ole Miss and Charlotte are 11 seeds and MU and OSU 12.  Shouldn't all 4 truly be 12's if they are the last 4 in?

Not to mention, there could be some movement for conflict reasons.

[StillAWarrior]

I've said it before, and I'll say it again now:  I think Marquette has benefitted from those close losses.  They got so much press from being the "unluckiest" team and I think that is helping them and will help them in the long run.  We've had articles about our coach, Lazar on the front page of ESPN's basketball page, etc.  I think we've gotten more coverage than your average 15-8 team (maybe because we're not an average 15-8 team).

They still have to take care of business, but I think the publicity surrounding all of those heart breaking losses will help this team.

Edited to add:  of course I'd rather have won those games.  But here's an interesting question - what do you think would have helped this team more:  an unremarkable 4 point win over NC State which wouldn't have really garnered any attention and might have reduced the publicity this team has received (resulting in a current record of 16-7) or the publicity the team has received and the reputation of being better than our record indicates?

[94Warrior]

We would have benefited more from winning.  A win is ALWAYS better than a loss.  If we were 7-4 or 8-3 in conference we would be in better shape.  Same with having one more non-conference win.

As others have said, I'll happily take a 12 seed against Temple right now.

[Hards Alumni]

We would have benefited more from winning.  A win is ALWAYS better than a loss.  If we were 7-4 or 8-3 in conference we would be in better shape.  Same with having one more non-conference win.

As others have said, I'll happily take a 12 seed against Temple right now.

Hey, stop stealing John Madden's logic.

[Skatastrophy]

Hey, stop stealing John Madden's logic.

You see... what Marquette has to do here is score more points than the other team!!

[Brewtown Andy]

What I don't get is under the last 4 in it has Ole Miss and Charlotte listed along with MU and Oklahoma St.  However, Ole Miss and Charlotte are 11 seeds and MU and OSU 12.  Shouldn't all 4 truly be 12's if they are the last 4 in?

Nope.  If enough mid to low major conference leaders (1 bid automatic qualifiers are covered by the current leaders) are deserving of a seed higher than 11 or 12, then they get them.